Did Ossetia war restore Caucasus stability?

This was first published on January 6, 2009 in World Politics Review

In Aftermath of Georgia War, a More Stable Caucasus
Emil Sanamyan | 06 Jan 2009
World Politics Review

For most observers, the brief war between Russia and Georgia last August only underscored the instability of the Caucasus region and the dangerous potential energy stored in its so-called frozen conflicts. Remarkably, though, the war's immediate impact has actually led to a relatively more stable regional status quo.

Dangerous Build-up

The wars of the early 1990s, in which newly independent Georgia and Azerbaijan lost control of their Soviet-era ethnic minority regions, became formative experiences for the two young nation-states. In both countries, the popular nationalist narrative continues to promote the "return" of the breakaway territories as a sine qua non of their existence.

The republics' post-Soviet economic recovery -- fueled in part by Western-sponsored Azerbaijani energy production exported via Georgian transit routes -- left them more confident about their ability to revise the status quo in their favor. The subsequent political transition in 2003, in which both countries replaced their Soviet-era leaders, reinforced the conviction.

In Georgia, the "revolutionary" government of Mikhail Saakashvili unseated the stability government of Eduard Shevardnadze. Saakashvili moved to upgrade the Georgian military, raising its annual budget -- to $1 billion in 2007 -- and, with it, the pressure on both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev succeeded his dead father, Heydar Aliyev, as president in the best traditions of Middle Eastern politics. But even in the absence of a popular "color revolution," growing oil revenues have led to a more hard-line approach with regard to the Armenian-supported separatist province of Nagorno-Karabakh. As in Georgia, the military budget grew -- to close to $2 billion -- and for the past several years, hardly a week has passed without an Azerbaijani official threatening a new war over the province.

There have been several escalations in recent years in all three conflict areas, but things began to get increasingly out of hand in the first half of 2008.

Georgia repeatedly sent its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to fly over Abkhazia, eliciting flyovers and attacks by the Russian air force. There were also bombing campaigns in Abkhazia and increased mortar attacks and assassination attempts in South Ossetia.

In Karabakh, where -- unlike Ossetia or Abkhazia -- extensive trenches and minefields forming a de facto border separate the two opposing forces, the sides fought one of the deadliest skirmishes in years. Azerbaijani aircraft also began flying closer to the Line of Contact, apparently seeking to trigger an Armenian response.

By summer, conditions were ripe for escalation, and the smell of war was in the air.

What Changed in August

When Georgia launched its attack on South Ossetia on Aug. 7, few could have imagined the rapidity and intensity of the Russian response.

Speaking on the night of the attack, Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried said there was "no evidence" of Russian involvement, and that he expected Russia to help "restrain" the Ossetian side.

In Azerbaijan, a spokesman for the foreign ministry welcomed the Georgian operation, saying that it could chart a new course for "resolving" the Karabakh conflict as well. But once Russia responded to the Georgian operation with massive force, Azerbaijani officials and pundits became unusually silent.

In the West, the response was one of surprise and anger.

"This decision to invade Georgia was . . . simply stupid," the State Department's Caucasus manager, Matt Bryza, told RFE/RL-Georgia a week after the war.

Nevertheless, this "stupid" war helped restore Russia's image as the sole hegemon in the Caucasus.

In the past, Azerbaijan may have hoped for a "controlled" escalation in Karabakh as a form of political pressure against Armenia. But following the war in Georgia, the potential consequences of such an escalation, if exploited by Moscow, became rather apparent.

Days after returning from the Beijing Olympics, Azerbaijan's Aliyev traveled to Moscow, where he assured Russian leaders of his determination to resolve all conflicts by peaceful means. Soon after that, he sat down with the presidents of Russia and Armenia to sign a declaration pledging a political settlement to the Karabakh conflict.

On a visit to Armenia this fall, the State Department's Fried conceded to RFE/RL-Armenia that the "danger [of war in Karabakh] has somewhat receded because [of] the war in Georgia."

The New Status Quo

"Saakashvili should get a Nobel peace prize for bringing Armenia and Azerbaijan together," Georgian publisher Malkhaz Gulashvili wrote recently, with no small amount of sarcasm.

But the Georgian president is unlikely to be so honored, either abroad or in his own country. His gamble humiliated Georgia militarily and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of civilians. With the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia now formally recognized by Russia, Georgia is left building new de facto borders around its two former provinces.

While that makes another war much less likely in the foreseeable future, there are less fortunate consequences of the new status quo as well. In the words of the Georgian president, "[T]he reputation that America has gained since the Cold War [has gone] to hell." As have efforts to build democratic systems, to a certain degree, leaving countries in the region more likely to favor the seemingly more effective -- and obviously more authoritarian -- Russian political model. Unless, that is, the United States or Europe offers new credible alternatives.

Emil Sanamyan is Washington editor and bureau chief for the Armenian Reporter.

Scout Tufankjan who photographed Obama and Gaza

Scout Tufankjian followed Obama for two years to create “an eyewitness record”
An interview with the American-Armenian photographer
by Emil Sanamyan
Published: Thursday January 01, 2009

February 23, 2008 in Austin, Texas: "Obama shaking hands" from Yes We Can: Barack Obama's History-Making Presidential Campaign. Scout Tufankjian

Washington, - Armenian-American photographer Scout Tufankjian just published Yes We Can: Barack Obama's History-Making Presidential Campaign (power­House/Melcher Media), which documents her two years covering the campaign. With the first print run of 50,000 sold out, her publisher is preparing a second printing.

A photographer with Polaris Images, Ms. Tufankjian previously worked for several years in the Middle East. She talked about her background and experiences to our Washington Editor Emil ­Sanamyan on December 23.

Family and school

Born in Whitman, Massachusetts, and brought up nearby in Scituate, just south of Boston, Scout Tufankjian went on to get her bachelor's degree in political studies from Yale University in 1998.

ST: My father's family is very typical Armenian. I have a great-grandfather from Harput. My grandmother is somewhat vague in terms where their family comes from. Although relatively recently we found out that her family is from Musaler, which we still need to do more research about because it kind of sounds too good to be true.

We lived too far away from an Armenian church to go on regular basis. As a kid I begged to go to Saturday school, but my parents could not take me because it was more than an hour away.

I lived in Massachusetts until I was eighteen. I went to college in Connecticut and then moved to New York about year and a half after graduating.

AR: Your college degree was in political studies. Was the idea initially to go to law school, as with many Armenians, or do something else?

ST: No, my dad is a lawyer, so I never wanted to go to law school.

I always wanted to do journalism. What always attracted me to journalism is the idea of creating a record. I don't know if that perhaps comes from being Armenian. I remember spending a lot of my childhood telling my non-­Armenian friends about the Genocide that they never heard of.

The idea of creating a record of something you witness has been very important to me.

But since my school did not offer a journalism degree, I majored in political studies with a focus on ethnic conflict and nationalism in kind of an attempt to know more about what is going on in the world rather than simply learn journalistic skills. I thought I could best learn and train [to be a journalist] on the job, having learned about history in classroom.

AR: Did you get to write as a journalist?

ST: I did do some writing in college for a local newspaper, but I already knew I would be doing ­photography. I did school exchange in Northern Ireland, and when I was there, there were riots in the town that I was living in and I photographed them. So immediately I knew this is what I wanted to do.

That was still the predigital world and there was this idea that a ­photograph cannot be argued with (which unfortunately is no longer the case). Plus, I enjoyed photography so much more than writing. So it was 10 years ago that I began photography.

AR: And in 2002 you took some pictures in Armenia...

ST: I was there with my dad and that was just around the time I began working professionally in the Middle East. We spent about two weeks in Armenia and it was pretty great. We called my grandmother who was still alive at the time and she cried.


We had a great time and did touristy things like Lake Sevan, Geghard, Garni, and Khor Virap. But I think we spent most of our time eating.

I want to go back and see more of the country, photograph Lake Sevan. We never made it to Karabakh, which I want to do sometime as well.

Scout in Gaza

First published at www.reporter.am
From 2002 to 2006, Ms. ­Toufankjian worked in the West Bank and in Gaza, where she covered major stories, including the Second Intifada (the Palestinian uprising against Israeli control underway since 2000), Yasser Arafat's death in 2004, the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, and the Israeli incursion into Gaza in 2006.

ST: At times I would be the only foreign reporter working in Gaza, which is in a way a lot of responsibility.

Culturally, [Palestine] is kind of similar to the Armenian atmosphere, so the place felt familiar and I never felt that foreign there.

But one of the most important things you learn traveling the world is that people everywhere are basically the same. People want the same things. They want their kids to be happy, they want to stay healthy, and they want security.

So I did a lot of stories on life in Gaza and on regular families trying to get by in these crazy situations.

But I loved working [in Gaza] and my plan is to head back this year.

AR: Gaza has this image out of a "Mad Max" film, a very violent and dangerous place. Where did you live?

TS: Depending on the situation with electricity, I would stay at a hotel or rented residence in a relatively secure coastal part of Gaza City. Occasionally Israelis would shut down all power supplies - either by shelling or just cutting off the lines or gas supplies - so I had to live in a hotel with generators because I can do nothing without being able to charge my batteries and my computer.

During the [Israeli] withdrawal I stayed in an apartment in downtown Khan Younis, which is the second largest town in Gaza.

Gaza can be dangerous and certainly because of Israeli air power they can strike anywhere they want at any moment. Air strikes can come at any moment and considering how crowded and densely-populated Gaza is, they can be very devastating.

But not all of Gaza is dangerous at any time. Whenever there is an army incursion that specific area can be intensely dangerous, but even then, 10 blocks from there may be perfectly safe. It is possible if you are extremely careful to avoid the danger.

AR: Sorry for a stupid question, but are there any Armenians living in Gaza?

TS: I keep hearing about this one Armenian guy who sells little airplane bottles of alcohol - which is illegal in Gaza - for about $250 a bottle. I keep trying to track him down because it could make a great story, but because what he does is somewhat illegal I have had a hard time tracking him down.

There had been more families in the recent past, along with a church, but a lot of people had left for the [relatively safer] West Bank or Lebanon or somewhere in the West. A lot of people have left Gaza.

The Obama campaign


In December 2006 Ms. ­Tufankjian was offered an assignment: to photograph the junior senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, doing a book presentation in Manchester, New Hampshire. She was initially reluctant to go, but having gone and met him, she decided to continue to cover the senator who soon after launched his presidential campaign.

AR: What did you know about Sen. Obama before you met him in New Hampshire and what struck you about him?

TS: I read an article about him in the New Yorker and I kind of knew he would be an important figure in American politics at some point. But I did not expect him to be that interesting or compelling. I was expecting just another boring political event that I have seen before.

What struck me about him was not just his personality - and he is definitely a great speaker and was interesting to listen to - but also how people responded to him. People in New Hampshire pride themselves on being cynical about politicians and not being particularly interested in what they have to say. But [at that event] people saw Obama and they were transfixed. They were fascinated by him. It felt like he was a rock star, people were so excited.

Obama seemed smart, young, and believable in a way that I found remarkable compared to most politicians you meet that look kind of alien and having no experience in dealing with real people in their lives. He seemed like a real person.

And for me personally it became a great opportunity to travel around the United States, which I had not done before, with almost all of my work having been abroad.

AR: When you started covering Barack Obama he was still below the radar of most media. But as time went on, the interest became intense. Was it difficult to keep your access to the campaign? Did they try to get rid of you because you were not affiliated with a major media outlet?

TS: It did get to that point eventually. But I have been lucky to get assignments [from publications] at key moments that allowed me to stay on [the campaign] plane.

I did a lot of work for Newsweek, filling in for their main photographer who could not be there for family reasons. In the last two weeks of the campaign, which is the time when I could have had real trouble staying on because access was tightened so much, I was able to work for Essence magazine.

And since I was there for so long, I think I was rewarded by the campaign for loyalty. But obviously they would not just give me access at the expense of their own coverage.

AR: At what point in the campaign does the Secret Service get involved? When do they decide that "Here, this guy is important, we have to protect him"?

TS: Obama got secret service protection in May 2007 before anyone else in the presidential campaign. And that is because there were actual threats against him.

What happened was that Dick Durbin, the senior senator from Illinois, made a request to the Senate that Obama be given Secret Service protection. And since the Senate found that necessary, Obama was given that protection. So the decision was not made by either the candidate or the Secret Service.

Candidates can of course themselves put in a request for protection. I remember Mitt Romney [a Republican hopeful] made requests for Secret Service protection throughout his primary campaign because he thought that made him look cool.

But for Obama security really kicked in after he won the [caucuses] in Iowa.

AR: How was your relationship with Obama himself?

TS: He treated me as his annoying little cousin. He would stick his hands in front of my camera, shake my shoulders, that kind of thing. He and I definitely developed some sort of a relationship.

AR: Did you ever get on his nerves? Maybe taking a picture that may have made him uncomfortable?

TS: Not really. The only times I was asked not to take pictures was when he was asleep on his [campaign] bus, just because the click might have woken him up.

He was pretty good about avoiding the camera. People kept asking whether we ever saw him smoking cigarettes and how come there were no pictures of him smoking. That is because none of us ever saw him smoke. The [campaign] would not have been able to ask us to not file the pictures or anything.

AR: But would Obama get a smoking room in a hotel?

TS: We [in the press pool] have been guessing that one his aides got a smoking room and [Obama] may have smoked in that room. We are not sure but that could have happened.

AR: You mentioned in another interview about your interest in things on the margins of the campaign. Did any Armenian things come up?

TS: One of his staffers in Iowa was Armenian, and there were couple of Armenian volunteers on the campaign. The campaign gave me "Armenian-Americans for Obama" stickers and I received e-mails about Obama's statements on Armenian issues, recognizing the Genocide, etc.

But there was never anyone with an Armenian-American sign or something, which I kept looking for to photograph.

Azeri President looking to 2nd decade in power

First published at http://www.reporter.am

Aliyev seeks to remain Azerbaijan’s president indefinitely
Aides say people love Mr. Aliyev too much to let him go
by Emil Sanamyan

Published: Saturday December 27, 2008

Ilham Aliyev consults Khanysh Kishi during election campaign last October. Khanysh Kishi, a sheep herder from Lerik district, served as informal advisor to Heydar Aliyev as well. www.president.az.

Washington, - Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is apparently considering keeping his post for at least another decade, according to reports from Baku. Mr. Aliyev just started his second five-year term as president after being formally re-elected with no significant opposition.

In the last several weeks, Mr. Aliyev's ruling New Azerbaijan party (YAP) began procedures for removing constitutional clauses that prevent the same person from holding the presidency for more than two consecutive five-year terms.

According to media reports, another planned change to the constitution provides for unlimited extension of a presidential term should the conduct of war interfere with the holding of elections.

Since Mr. Aliyev frequently states that Azerbaijan remains at war with Armenia and the status quo (including cease-fire violations) could be argued to have precluded holding elections in some localities, all national voting could theoretically be scrapped in Azerbaijan forthwith.

YAP member Ali Husseinov argued last week that "formal restrictions" had to be removed to "avoid potential domestic upheavals and to secure normal work of the head of state and liberation of [Armenian] occupied territories."

But local political commentator Ilgar Mamedov suggested a more domestic reason for the change. He told RFE/RL that the change was a sign that Mr. Aliyev no longer intends to hand over power to his wife Mehriban Pashayeva in 2013 as many have speculated.

Ms. Pashayeva (pictured on left), who is a nominal member of parliament, reportedly wields considerable political influence and in recent years her profile was considerably raised both domestically and in Azerbaijan's official contacts with foreign partners. She has not yet reacted to her husband's initiative.

The Azerbaijani "framers" adopted the term limits after copying them along with most of the constitutional text from the Russian constitution in 1995.

(Since 1992 term limits have been scrapped or altered in most of Central Asia and Belarus. And the Russian government moved last month to extend the next president's term from four to six years, although terms limits are being kept in place.)

The term limits were ignored during the 2003 elections, when Mr. Aliyev's ailing father and predecessor Heydar Aliyev was initially registered to run. But Heydar Aliyev's name was withdrawn from the election after he reportedly suffered clinical death and Ilham Aliyev prevailed in the intra-familial power struggle against his uncle Jalal Aliyev.

But now, the president's aides have cited "numerous letters" from Azerbaijani citizens praising Ilham Aliyev's performance as president and calling for removal of the term limits as the rationale behind the change.

President's birthday celebrated in style

According to Eldar Azizov, mayor of Ganje, Azerbaijan's second-­largest city, it was love for the "great man" that led his city's "businessmen and intellectuals" to prepare a 5-ton, 30-meter cake to mark President Aliyev's 47th birthday on December 24.

According to Trend news agency, a Turkish contractor was hired to do the actual baking. According to Day.az, the bakers used 1.5 tons of flour, 1.5 tons of sugar and 20,000 eggs. The cake was decorated with symbols, a flag, and the number 47.

According to photos published by Day.az, the giant dessert was guarded by several hundred young men in uniform who surrounded the entire perimeter around the birthday cake. They were apparently holding off a crowd of some 30,000 that was reported to have eventually shared in consumption of the cake and stayed on to hear a subsequent concert.

But tough security didn't protect the cake from inclement weather with photos showing puddles of water forming on top and around the concoction.

UN: Armenia less developed than Turkey; U.S.-Ukraine and Georgia politics

First published at www.reporter.am on Saturday December 27, 2008.

Washington briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

UN study: Armenia falls behind Turkey in “human development”

The greener and the blacker.

An annual United Nations study of the world's development released on December 18 placed Armenia 83rd of 175 countries ranked. The Human Development Index takes into account life expectancy, education levels, and per capita economic activity.

For the first time since the 1990s, Armenia was ranked behind Turkey (79), although still ahead of other neighbors: Iran (84), Georgia (93), and Azerbaijan (97), all grouped with countries with "medium human development."

The report showed Armenia's HDI fall from 0.732 in 1990 to 0.695 in 1995 and then rebound to 0.735 in 2000 and 0.777 in 2006 (the latest statistics provided); Turkey meanwhile has made consistent progress from an HDI of 0.700 in 1990 to 0.798 in 2006.

In the former Soviet territory, the three Baltic republics were ranked most developed, occupying places from 42nd to 44th; Belarus was ranked 67th, and Russia 73rd, all among countries with "high human development." The HDI list was topped by Iceland, Norway, and Canda, while Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, and Sierra Leone were ranked at the bottom.

The HDI report is prepared by the United Nations Development program based on national statistics. See http://hdr.undp.org.

U.S. signs security charter with Ukraine, plans one with Georgia

Ogryzko of Ukraine with Rice last September. AP photo.

A Charter on Strategic Partnership between Ukraine and the United States was signed last week in Washington and a similar deal is in the works with Georgia.

Earlier this year, the United States lobbied NATO to grant a membership action plan (MAP) to both countries, but faced opposition from European countries careful not to further aggravate relations with Russia.

The charters with Ukraine and Georgia are reportedly modeled on the U.S.-Baltic charter signed with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 1998. The three countries joined NATO in 2004.

The U.S.-Ukraine charter signed on December 19 by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Ukrainian foreign minister Volodymyr Ogryzko calls for mutual "support for each other's sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders [as] the foundation of our bilateral relations.

The defense section of the charter calls for expansion of bilateral security cooperation and recalls NATO support for eventual Ukrainian membership.

The economic section includes a specific reference to Crimea, which is home to a Russian naval base and where the United States is planning to establish a diplomatic presence.

The charter's two other sections are dedicated to democracy building and people-to-people contacts. As part of the latter section, the United States pledged to cooperate with Ukraine "to promote remembrance and increased public awareness of the 1932-33 Great Famine (Holodomor) in Ukraine."

In a press statement on December 23, the State Department confirmed that a similar charter is being prepared with Georgia, whose foreign minister Grigol Vashadze said that it was expected to be signed before the New Year.

One of Georgian opposition leaders, Kakha Kukava, said on December 23 that the charter should be first discussed publicly.

"The Conservative Party welcomes cooperation with the Western partners, but we believe, that Georgia's current authorities no longer have a mandate to unilaterally take decisions related with the country's long-term security issues," civil.ge cited Mr. Kukava as saying. "Georgia should be insured from new irresponsible and provocative actions of the Saakashvili regime."

Former Georgian diplomat adds voice to early elections calls

Irakli Alasania, former Georgian representative to the United Nations who resigned earlier this month, blamed the country's leader Mikheil Saakashvili for failing to avoid the war with Russia and said he is consulting with other Georgian politicians on taking the country out of crisis via early elections, Civil Georgia reported.

Mr. Alasania turned 35 on December 21 and is now eligible to run for the presidency. The former envoy made his comments at a press conference on December 24, a day after returning from New York.

The New Rights and Republican parties have said they would forge an opposition union in support of Mr. Alasania's presidential bid.

Other opposition leaders, including former Parliament speaker Nino Bourjanadze have already called for early elections. Ms. Bourjanadze's husband, former border police head Gen. Badri Bitsadze, said he expected his wife to run. Mr. Alasania said he was open to cooperation with Ms. Bourjanadze.

Mr. Saakashvili had recently ruled out early elections, suggesting they were too expensive to hold.

Born in 1973 in Batumi, Mr. Alasania was trained as a security officer and a diplomat in Tbilisi. He is a son of Soviet-era police General Mamia Alasania who was killed in 1993 during the war in Abkhazia.

Prior to becoming Georgia's UN envoy in 2006, Mr. Alasania was advisor to Mr. Saakashvili on Abkhaz conflict-resolution issues, having earlier served on the national security council, as deputy defense minister, deputy state security minister and in the foreign ministry under both Mr. Saakashvili and his predecessor President Eduard Shevardnadze.

According to news reports, Mr. Shevardnadze this week praised Mr. Alasania as "smart and educated" and "with good prospects." Since August the former Georgian leader has frequently criticized Mr. Saakashvili who forced him to resign in 2003.

"Apology to Armenians" debated in Turkey

First published at www.reporter.am

Turkish “apology to Armenians” aims to improve relations
Effort launched by intellectuals, denounced by political leaders
by Emil Sanamyan
Published: Thursday December 18, 2008

More than 100,000 Turks turned out at the funeral of Hrant Dink in Istanbul, Jan. 22, 2007. Photo by Ara Sarafian

Washington, - "My conscience does not accept the insensitivity showed to and the denial of the Great Catastrophe that the Ottoman Armenians were subjected to in 1915. I reject this injustice and for my share, I empathize with the feelings and pain of my Armenian brothers and sisters. I apologize to them."

This is the English-language translation of a statement initiated by about 200 Turkish intellectuals at a web site called, "We Apologize" (http://www.ozurdiliyoruz.com/), on December 15. More than 13,000 Turks had signed on to the statement within the first few days of its launch. (UPDATE: the number surpassed 27,000 by January 12.)

The Armenian Reporter asked some of the U.S.-based signers, most of them university students from Turkey, about the meaning of the statement and what they hoped it might accomplish.

"I strongly believe that Turkish and Armenian people should start understanding each other," Sanem Soyarslan, 32, a doctoral candidate in philosophy at Duke University, wrote in an e-mail. And this "cannot start unless Turkish people ‘recognize' the pain and suffering of Armenian people."

"For me, it is a matter of personal conscience," Ms. Soyarslan explained. "I am sorry for the terrible things that Armenian people suffered in 1915. And I want to express that."

"I believe that Turks and Armenians can be good friends by developing mutual understanding towards each other, I mean each others' pains and sorrows," agreed another signer, Kivanc Ozcan, 25.

A graduate student at George Washington University's Middle East studies program, Mr. Ozcan added, "This petition shows that there are different opinions in Turkey towards the Armenian issue. This petition marks the rejection of state stance towards the issue."

The signatories were asked to provide their full name, occupation, and location. Most of the signers identified themselves as students or professionals - educators, journalists, lawyers, doctors, scientists, engineers, economists and business people who use the Internet on a daily or even hourly basis. But signers also include workers, farmers, taxi drivers, and at least one New Jersey gas station attendant.

The vast majority of the signers were in Istanbul and other large cities of Turkey. Turks living in Germany and other European countries also make up a substantial portion.

Some of the more prominent figures among the signers include journalists Ali Bayramoglu, Oral Çalislar, Ece Temelkuran, Mine G. Kirikkanat, and Cengiz Candar, writers Perihan Magden and Tuna Kiremitci, academics Murat Belge and Baskin Oran, singer Yavuz Bingöl, and leader of Germany's influential Greens Party Cem Ozdemir.

Symbolically, among the signers is journalist Hasan Cemal, a grandson of Jemal Pasha, one of the Ottoman leaders in the years of the Genocide, who was subsequently assassinated by Armenians.

Denouncements and criticisms

The statement has been criticized both by Turkish nationalists and by those saying it does not go far enough in recognizing the Armenian Genocide.

President Abdullah Gül refrained from criticizing the statement, calling it an example of "democratic discussion." But more influential Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan called the statement "irrational" and "wrong," and said that he "personally does not accept, support or participate in this campaign."

"I have not committed a crime. Why should I apologize?" Mr. Erdogan wondered when asked about the statement on December 17, EuroNews TV reported.

A group of 60 retired Turkish diplomats, some of them now parliament members from the nationalist opposition Republican People's Party, issued a statement calling the statement "unfair, wrong and unfavorable to national interests," according to The Associated Press.

Leaders of the National Action Party, a quasi-fascist opposition group represented in parliament, called the initiative an "insult to the Turkish nation."

At the same time, civil rights activist Aytekin Yildiz told Zaman newspaper on December 5 that while the statement was "a good starting point, but not enough."

"Firstly, what do they mean by ["Great Catastrophe"]? Let's name it, it is genocide. Secondly, the state has to apologize," said Mr. Yildiz.

The term "Great Catastrophe" is a translation of the Armenian language name for the Armenian Genocide, "Metz Yeghern."

Previously, President George W. Bush and the late Pope John Paul II, in apparent efforts not to stir the aggravation of the Turkish government by using the term genocide, referred to "Metz Yeghern" either in Armenian or English translation in their statements.

Armenian reaction

Most commentators in Armenia and the diaspora praised the statement.

"Such statements were inconceivable several years ago," Alexander Iskandarian of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute told PanArmenian.net. The very fact of this statement shows the newly acquired level of independence that Turkish society has from its government, he noted.

Ruben Safrastian, who heads the Middle East studies department at the National Academy of Sciences, told PanArmenian.net, "the campaign reflected the Turkish public's desire to confess, clear, and dissociate itself from the sad heritage of the Ottoman Empire.

"Although it will be a hard process," Mr. Safrastian said, "Turkey needs acknowledgment of the Armenian Genocide to move forward."

"This statement serves the useful purpose of educating the Turkish public that has been kept in the dark so long about the Armenian Genocide," California Courier publisher Harut Sassounian wrote in his syndicated column.

"Rather than an Armenian-Turkish historical commission [proposed by Mr. Erdogan], what is needed is a purely Turkish commission that would provide a forum for Turks to discuss and discover the mass crimes of their forefathers," Mr. Sassounian stressed.

In another unprecedented move on December 9, a group of 300 Armenian intellectuals had written to President Gül, urging him to recognize and condemn the Armenian Genocide.

Turkish debate

The statement came after and was prompted in part by comments made on November 10 by a senior member of the ruling Justice and Development Party, Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül.

Speaking on the anniversary of the death of Turkish republic's founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, at the Turkish Embassy in Brussels, Mr. Gönül referred approvingly to the genocidal treatment of the indigenous Armenian and Greek populations in Turkey's present-day territory.

"If there were Greeks in the Aegean and Armenians in most places in Turkey today, would it be the same nation-state? I don't know what words I can use to explain the importance of the population exchange, but if you look at the former state of affairs, its importance will become very clear," Mr. Gönül was quoted as saying by the Zaman newspaper.

With the international campaign to affirm the Armenian Genocide gaining traction around the world, the issue has increasingly emerged as a subject of public discourse in Turkey.

The January 2007 assassination of Turkish-Armenian newspaper editor Hrant Dink brought more than 100,000 mourners into Istanbul streets under slogans "We are all Hrant!" and "We are all Armenians!"

"The day Hrant was killed was a very dark day for me and for many people in Turkey," recalled Ms. Soyarslan, one of the statement signers. "That darkness is in such stark contrast to the light that Hrant was willing to bring in." f

The statement has in a way become a tribute to "that beautiful man who devoted his life to [building] the foundation of a dialogue and understanding between the two peoples," she added. "This petition shows that we believe in the bright days that Hrant believed in."

[Lou Ann Matossian contributed to this article from Minneapolis.]

Published in December 27, 2008 Armenian Reporter:

Turkish lawmakers argue over “apology” to Armenians
President Gül attacked for not condemning the petition
by Emil Sanamyan

Calouste Gulbenkian and Abdullah Gul - could they be related?

Washington – The petition apologizing to Armenians continued to gather support and generate more official criticism as debates shifted to the Turkish parliament, Turkish media reported.

The Turkish military described the public petition launched by Turkish intellectuals on December 15 as “wrong and [one that] will create harmful consequences,” according
to a Hurriyet translation of the December 19 statement.

Employing the language typically used against international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said the petition was “of no use to anyone especially at a time talks continue and it may harm the negotiation process” with Armenia.

Last week, Turkey’s political leaders offered different reactions to the petition. While Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan criticized it, President Abdullah Gül suggested the petition was a sign of democratic progress in Turkey.

As of December 24, nearly 23,000 Turks signed the “I apologize” petition. Late last week the petition site http://www.ozurdiliyoruz.com was offline for several days after an apparent hacking.

A rival petition titled “I do not apologize” claimed to have gathered a similar number of signatures. Unlike the original petition, which had a large number of signers from Europe and some from the U.S. and Canada, none of the counter-petition signers were from outside Turkey.

A matter of education

Turkish MPs argue during December 21 session

On December 21, parliament members from the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) joined the apology to Armenians and called on others to apologize.

According to reports in major Turkish newspapers, DTP’s Osman Özçelik from southeastern Siirt province referred to the Armenian Genocide during a discussion of the education budget and likened targeting of Ottoman Armenians to anti-Kurdish campaigns of today.

Mr. Özçelik said that while many Kurds participated in the Genocide his grandfather’s family living in the Mardin area provided refuge to Armenians.

The comments were blasted as “insulting” by the parliament’s presiding deputy speaker Nevzat Pakdil, as well as members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the nationalist opposition.

DTP member Sırrı Sakık from Moush in turn suggested that Mr. Pakdil, representing the previously Armenian-populated Marash area, should be familiar with the “tragedy” that unfolded in the area.

Two other DTP members, Hasip Kaplan from Shirnak and İbrahim Binici from Urfa also spoke out.

DTP is a successor of the previously banned Kurdish parties and is under permanent threat of being banned itself with leaders facing potential imprisonment.

A matter of genetics

In a reflection of pervasive attitudes toward ethnicity, President Gül filed a lawsuit against an opposition politician who alleged he was of Armenian descent, Zaman newspaper reported.

Turkish MP Canan Aritman

A parliament member from the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Canan Arıtman, claimed on December 17 that Mr. Gül was not sufficiently nationalist “because of his ethnic origins.”

Ms. Aritman suggested the president’s mother’s family was of Armenian origin and his father’s family of Arabic descent, and called for the president to undergo a DNA test that she apparently believes could prove that.

The president’s lawyers argued the allegation was “based on racism and discrimination, is a heavy assault on the client’s personal and family values, honor, and reputation” and demanded Ms. Arıtman be given a symbolic fine “to identify the injustice.”

At the same time, Mr. Gül claimed in a December 20 statement to “respect the ethnic background, different beliefs, and family ties of all my citizens and see this [diversity] as a reality and also the wealth of our country with its imperial history.”

Mr. Gül insists that both his father’s and mother’s Satoğlu family from Kayseri are Muslim and Turkish.

A city with an ancient history, Kayseri (Kaisareia in Greek and Gesaria in Western Armenian) used to have a large Armenian population before the Genocide.

Ms. Aritman herself represents a constituency in previously Greekpopulated Izmir (Smyrna), Turkey’s third-largest city.

International reaction

Outside of Turkey and Armenia, there has been limited foreign media interest in the debates generated by the petition.

In Azerbaijan, reporting focused on allegations about President Gül’s mother, a familiar subject in the country where political opponents often charge one another with having ethnic Armenian family.

The most popular Azerbaijani new portal, Day.az, carried a denial that Mr. Gül was related to Calouste Gulbenkian, a prominent 20th century businessperson of Armenian descent born in Istanbul.

The same source reported over the weekend that German-born and New York–based Turkish pop star Tarkan Tevetoglu signed on to the petition. That led to Azerbaijani sponsors’ threats to cancel his upcoming concert in Baku. The singer issued a denial on December 22 via Azeri Press Agency.

In Europe, on December 22, France24 television carried a report from Istanbul in which Turks spoke in support and opposition of the petition. BBC, EuroNews, the Guardian, the Independent and the Irish Times also carried reports.

And in Canada, the Ottawa Citizen editorial on December 22 praised the petition as a “remarkably brave act” in light of recent murder of Hrant Dink and prosecution of Orhan Pamuk over their comments on Armenian issues.

UPDATE: By early January, President Gul joined the official criticism of the petition as "unhelpful" and there were reports petition organizers were under investigation by state prosecutors on charges of "insulting the Turkish nation" than both Mr. Pamuk and Mr. Dink previously faced.

Mark Kirk becomes Armenian caucus co-chair

First published at www.reporter.am

Mark Kirk selected as Armenian caucus co-chair
Illinois representative to take over from fellow Republican Joe Knollenberg
by Emil Sanamyan
Published: Thursday December 18, 2008

Rep. Mark Kirk (R.-Ill.), pictured wearing his veteran cap, who has been selected as co-chair of the House Caucus on Armenian Issues.

Washington, - Rep. Mark Kirk (R.-Ill.) will take over from Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R.-Mich.) as co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues, the offices of the two members and fellow co-chair Rep. Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.) reported on December 17.

After eight years as caucus co-chair and 16 years as a representative from suburban Detroit, Mr. Knollenberg, 75, is leaving Congress, having lost his re-election bid last month.

The Armenian caucus will be entering the 111th Congress next month with 140 members, at which point 16 members will have left the House of Representatives due to retirement, winning elections for higher office, or having lost re-election bids.

Mr. Kirk's track record

Mr. Kirk represents Illinois' tenth district, which consists of Chicago's northern suburbs. He is a senior member of the key House Foreign Operations Subcommittee, which works to set foreign-aid levels.

"After 20 years of working with the Armenian-American community to advance the U.S.-Armenia issues, I am honored and excited to serve alongside Congressman Pallone as co-chair of the Caucus on Armenian Issues," Mr. Kirk said in a statement.

"The Caucus on Armenian Issues is well-known for its work to strengthen the U.S.-Armenia relationship and recognize the Armenian Genocide. I look forward to working with Congressman Pallone and all members of the Caucus to advance the U.S.-Armenia relationship in the 111th Congress."

Mr. Knollenberg called Mr. Kirk "a highly talented leader with a record of success." And Mr. Pallone, recalling his cooperation with Mr. Knollenberg, said he expected to continue "to work in a bipartisan fashion with Mark Kirk."

"In the 111th Congress, the Caucus will continue to advocate for peace and stability in Nagorno Karabakh, recognition of the Armenian Genocide and Armenia's economic integration in the Caucasus," Mr. Pallone said.

Throughout his years in the House of Representatives, Mr. Kirk has supported congressional efforts to affirm the Armenian genocide and provide adequate levels of U.S. aid to Armenia.

First elected in 2000, Mr. Kirk replaced retiring Rep. John Porter (R.-Ill.) who co-chaired the Armenian caucus until being replaced by Mr. Knollenberg; Mr. Kirk began his professional career serving on Mr. Porter's staff between 1984 and 1990.

Mr. Kirk's career has included stints at the World Bank's International Finance Corporation (1990), the State Department Bureau of Inter-American Affairs (1992-93), the law firm of Baker & McKenzie (1993-95), and as counsel to the U.S. House International Relations Committee (1995-99).

As a Naval Reserve intelligence officer since 1989, Mr. Kirk served tours of duty during U.S. military operations in Kuwait, Iraq, Haiti, and the former Yugoslavia.

According to congressional records, together with Mr. Knollenberg and other Armenian caucus members, Mr. Kirk is a member of the bi-cameral Silk Road Caucus established in 2001 to focus on U.S. policies in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Mr. Kirk also served as Albanian caucus co-chair and currently co-chairs the congressional Iran Working Group, which earlier this year held hearings that focused on Iran's ethnic minorities.

In a Dear Colleague letter last August, Mr. Kirk criticized the Turkish government for restricting U.S. access into the Black Sea when the United States sought to provide aid to Georgia amid its conflict with Russia.

Born in 1959, Mr. Kirk earned his bachelor's from Cornell, a master's degree from the London School of Economics and a law degree from Georgetown. Rep. Kirk and his wife, Kimberly, live in Highland Park, Illinois.

Honoring Mr. Knollenberg

Mr. Knollenberg hosted a "thank you" event for his supporters on December 15 in Pontiac, Michigan, in his district. Among the 350 attendees were Reverend Father Diran Papazian of the local Armenian Church, Pam Coultis on behalf of Detroit business­person Edgar Hagopian, Paul Kulhanjian, and Ross Vartian.

Mr. Vartian, who is the executive director of the U.S.-Armenia Public Affairs Committee (USAPAC), said that the Armenian-American community owed a debt of gratitude to Rep. Knollenberg for his unwavering support of Armenian-American issues throughout his tenure in Congress, in his capacities as Armenia Caucus Co-chair, member of the Appropriations Committee, and leading member of the Subcommittee on Foreign Operations.

"The people of Armenia and Karabakh had no better friend in the House of Representatives than Mr. Knollenberg," said Mr. Vartian.

MCC-Armenia; U.S.-Georgia charter; Russians in the Americas; OPEC-FSU oil production cut

First published in December 20 2008 www.reporter.am

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. agency wants democratic reforms stepped up in Armenia

John Danilovich on December 12. Armenian Reporter photo.

The U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) "reiterated its concerns about the status of democratic governance" in Armenia, according to MCC's statement following its board meeting on December 11. Although Armenia has remained eligible for U.S. aid under the program's guidelines, the volume of assistance has been restricted throughout 2008 after the State Department blamed the government for post-election violence.

In all, MCC allocated $28 million to Armenia in the first two years of the five-year $235 million compact aimed at reducing rural poverty through the construction of roads and irrigation systems. According to MCC's Armenia office, cited by Regnum news agency, its first quarter 2009 expenses will be $7 million.

By contrast, in 2006-2008 the United States allocated $213 million of $295 million of the Georgia compact, which is now on track for completion by next September. Earlier this year, MCC allocated an additional $100 million to Georgia as part of a $1 billion U.S. aid package to Georgia promised by the Bush administration following the August war with Russia.

With a political transition underway in Washington, a new MCC board with members of the Obama administration will meet in March to pick a new chief executive officer and "again review Armenia's performance and examine continued collaboration with the country during its March meeting."

The MCC board is chaired by the Secretary of State and includes other cabinet members and nongovernmental representatives.

In his farewell briefing on December 12, MCC's outgoing CEO, Ambassador John Danilovich, hinted at unresolved issues with Armenia.

"We have a good working relationship with Armenia," he said in response to a question posed by the Armenian Reporter. But "the government of the newly elected president [Serge] Sargsian needs to reassess their commitments to democratic principles in light of some election matters which occurred at the time of the election now about nine months ago."

While Ambassador Danilovich sounded positive that funding for MCC's suspended road project "should resume in March" and he noted that "the [Armenian] government has embarked on a number of reform efforts," the MCC board members "very much want the government of Armenia to continue with and increase the speed with the substance of those reforms," both for continuation of the current program and "also for the eventual possibility of future engagement with MCC" with a second compact.

U.S. developing security pact with Georgia

U.S. and Georgian officials are discussing a security agreement along the lines of the 1998 U.S.-Baltic charter, according to a RFE/RL report on December 18. The charter became a precursor to the Baltic states' membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2004.

Georgian officials said that talks over the agreement are "intensive," suggesting an agreement may be reached even before the Bush administration leaves office.

The incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry (D.-Mass.) and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza were both in Georgia in recent weeks.

Also on December 18, the New York Times published portions of leaked classified U.S. military assessment of the Georgian army ordered following the August war with Russia and conducted in October and November.

According to the report, in spite of 10 years of U.S. aid and several years of budget allocations of nearly $1 billion a year, the Georgian military remains "substandard" and "mismanaged."

"Their command and control is a mess [and] they have no ability to process and analyze strategic information and provide it to decision makers in a systematic way," the newspaper quoted an anonymous U.S. officer as saying.

In tit-for-tat with U.S., Russia seeks sphere of influence in the Americas

Russian Navy destroyer Admiral Chabanenko. This vessel this week delivered humanitarian aid to Nicaragua. Royal Navy photo.

Russian naval vessels delivered humanitarian aid to Nicaragua last week, shortly after Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev arrived to observe joint Russian-Venezuelan military exercises and contemplated reviving a Cold War-era Russian radar during a visit to Cuba.

Aid to Nicaragua arrived just as the United States suspended its Millennium Challenge Corporation program there, citing President Daniel Ortega's democratic shortfalls. (In the 1980s the United States funded a guerilla war against Mr. Ortega, who was then voted out in 1990, only to stage a successful political comeback in 2006.) Earlier, U.S. naval vessels were used to bring humanitarian aid to Georgia.

Mr. Ortega is planning to visit Abkhazia and South Ossetia next week.

Russian moves into Latin America are seen as paralleling those of the United States in the former Soviet republics. Mr. Medvedev declared the former Soviet space an area of Russia's "privileged interests," which itself recalls the two centuries-old Monroe Doctrine that called for exclusion of European influences and sustaining effective U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials held "strategic security discussions" in Moscow on December 15 within the framework of a declaration signed by the two countries' presidents last April, but made little headway on key sticking points such as a European missile defense system planned by the United States.

Azerbaijan, Russia cut oil output as prices fall

Azerbaijan and Russia joined with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in announcing a big cut in oil production this week, news agencies reported.

OPEC producers agreed to cut production from current levels of 27.3 million barrels a day by 2 million, while Russia and Azerbaijan said they would cut production by 300,000 barrels a day each.

The cut would represent a more than 35 percent reduction for Azerbaijan from the current production level of 840,000 barrels a day. Azerbaijani production - most by the BP-led consortium - peaked at over one million barrels earlier this year.

Oil prices have fallen from the high of $147 per barrel in July to under $40 this week.

Albright-Cohen report proposes anti-genocide policy

First published in December 13, 2008 www.reporter.am

U.S. told to give higher priority to genocide prevention
Albright-Cohen report sidesteps Armenian-American concerns
by Emil Sanamyan and Nareg Seferian

William Cohen and Madeline Albright at the National Press Club on November 13, 2007, announcing the formation of the Genocide Prevention Task Force. Nareg Seferian for the Armenian Reporter

Washington, - The United States should establish early warning mechanisms and if necessary lead an international coalition that would take military action to prevent incidents of mass violence against civilians, says a report prepared by former senior U.S. officials and unveiled on December 8.

Preventing Genocide: A Blueprint for U.S. Policymakers, was prepared by a bipartisan panel for the consideration of the incoming administration of Barack Obama. The panel, the Genocide Prevention Task Force (GPTF), was co-chaired by Madeleine Albright and William Cohen, secretaries of state and defense respectively in the Clinton administration.

The report called for $250 million in annual funding for the anti-genocide strategy and appointment of a senior White House coordinator for the policy.

The mechanisms recommended in the report include strengthening international humanitarian norms and institutions, monitoring and early warning about emerging crises, early diplomatic engagement to prevent escalation and mass violence, and resorting to military action as a last resort to halt the bloodshed.

The report also referred to a "growing understanding" around the world that "no government has the right to use national sovereignty as a shield behind which it can murder its own people."

"It is a good piece of work on the future of how the United States should organize itself for responding to emerging genocides in the future," former U.S. ambassador to Armenia John Evans told the Armenian Reporter.

At the same time, Mr. Evans said, the "largely ahistorical" approach taken by the task force "will be profoundly disappointing to people who expected more attention" paid to issues such as the Armenian Genocide.

But, he added, "we who care about the Armenian case should welcome this report for what it is, realizing that it is not the final word by any means on historical issues."

Aram Hamparian of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) acknowledged in a statement that "Albright and Cohen offered some worthwhile solutions" to genocide prevention.

"But," Mr. Hamparian went on to add, "Secretaries Albright and Cohen both have long track records, both as government officials and private citizens, of working to block American recognition of the Armenian Genocide," and they "remain very much part of the problem the Task Force set out to address."

Credibility questions

GPTF convened late last year under the auspices of the American Academy of Diplomacy, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the U.S. Institute of Peace.

At the launch of the initiative in November 2007, Mrs. Albright and Mr. Cohen had their credibility on the issue of genocide questioned repeatedly (see the November 17, 2007, Armenian Reporter).

The two former officials were members of an administration that failed to address the genocide in Rwanda and opposed a clear U.S. condemnation of the Armenian Genocide.

Moreover, as recently as March 2007, they continued to publicly oppose congressional action that describes the Armenian experience in 1915-17 in the Ottoman Empire as genocide.

In last year's presentation of the taskforce, one of the journalists present observed of the two secretaries: "It sounds as if both of you are saying that ‘if our friends do it, it's not genocide, if our enemies do it, it is genocide.'"

Asked if their opposition to genocide affirmation meant that the United States "shouldn't be taking action on future genocides because of what it could mean to U.S. interests," the former secretaries appeared to agree.

"There are no absolutes in this," said Mr. Cohen at the time. "There is an element of pragmatism.... I think anyone serving in public office necessarily has to have a set of balancing factors to take into account."

Euphemistic language

The task force consulted with representatives of the three Armenian advocacy organizations in Washington - the ANCA, the Armenian Assembly of America, and the U.S.-Armenia Public Affairs Committee (USAPAC) - as well as Gregory Stanton of Genocide Watch, but remained equivocal in its references to the Armenian Genocide.

The GPTF says, "this task force is not a historical commission; its focus is on the future and on prevention."

The report claims that its authors "recognize the importance of learning from the past and the dangers of denying past crimes" and would like to "avoid definitional traps" when it comes to mass atrocities.

At the same time, the authors noted that the report contains "many references to specific countries and historical events in this report, not all of which necessarily fall into the category of genocide."

Among the historical events briefly mentioned in the report is the "forced exile of Armenians into unlivable conditions," as well as the U.S. failure to heed calls for action by its then ambassador to Ottoman Turkey Henry Morgenthau, as well as provision of assistance to Armenian victims.

The report also discusses the U.S. failure to adequately respond to outrages in Rwanda and, more recently, Sudan, and how that has undermined U.S. image around the world.

New age of humanitarian interventions?

"The time is right for these recommendations," Mr. Evans believes "because there will be greater awareness among the members of the incoming [Obama] team of the importance of not ignoring the trouble spots around the world" where genocidal threats exist.

According to a December 8 Washington Post story, the country where change in U.S. policy on genocide may be felt soonest is in Sudan.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague is currently deciding whether to issue an arrest warrant against Sudan's longtime ruler.

Since 2003, the country's Arab-dominated government has been accused of a genocidal campaign in its majority-black rebellious province of Darfur, where hundreds of thousands are believed to have died, with more than two million displaced.

Since 2004, the focus of fighting has shifted from government action against rebels to various rebel and pro-government factions fighting among themselves. Also last May, rebel forces staged a military raid on Sudan's capital of Khartoum, located 400 miles from Darfur, which left hundreds dead.

Although the Bush administration qualified Sudanese government actions in Darfur as genocide early on, the United States introduced only limited economic sanctions against the country.

In the 1990s, the Clinton administration cited humanitarian grounds for military action in former Yugoslavia, as well as in Haiti and Somalia, where the United States attempted to arrest state failure.

The December 8 story in the Post recalled that key Obama appointees have called for military action against Sudan - from enforcement of a "no-fly" zone suggested by Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton to airstrikes called for ambassador to United Nations-designate Susan Rice.

Last year, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Joseph Biden, who is now Vice President-elect, said that he "would use American force now" to stop the killing of civilians in Sudan.

As a senator, Mr. Obama himself spoke of a "moral obligation" that the United States had to intervene to stop humanitarian catastrophes from unraveling around the world, although he did not advocated direct U.S. military action over Darfur.

Both Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who is staying on with the Obama administration, and National Security Advisor-designate James Jones have argued the U.S. military is already stretched too thin with commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan to play any substantial role in places like Sudan.

Obama on Russia; Turkey to Obama; Georgia politics

First published in the December 13, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama promises to “reset” relations with Russia

Then Sen. Obama along with Sen. Lugar on visit to Russia in 2005.

President-elect Barack Obama said he was determining when to meet Russian leaders and said there was a need to “reset U.S.-Russia relations” following tensions earlier this year.

In comments to NBC’s “Meet the Press” on December 7, Mr. Obama said, “we want to cooperate with [Russia] where we can.” But he also charged that Russia was “acting in ways that are contrary to international norms” and should stop “bullying” U.S.-backed Georgia.

In an interview on December 4, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also sounded conciliatory, noting “positive signals” from Mr. Obama’s team.

“We hear that one should build relations with Russia, taking into account its interests,” Mr. Putin was quoted as saying by Reuters. He was apparently referring to the president-elect’s promises to review Bush administration support for missile defense in Europe and NATO’s continued eastward expansion – two policies that have especially aggravated Russia.

“If these are not just words, if they get transformed into a practical policy, then of course our reaction will be appropriate and our American partners will feel this at once,” said Mr. Putin.

Turkey prepares ground for U.S. ties under new administration

Turkish officials and commentators have been actively reminding Washington of their country’s importance to the United States, ahead of President-elect Barack Obama’s inauguration.

In recent weeks, in addition to visits by senior Turkish officials, Washington-based pundits held a number of public events that highlighted Turkey’s priorities in relations with the United States and Europe.

Opinion pieces on U.S.- Turkish relations appeared in the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Christian Science Monitor. A Turkish lobby group presented awards to three members of congress.

The longstanding effort to prevent a change in the administration’s position on the recognition of the Armenian Genocide – something that Mr. Obama promised repeatedly to bring about – is among top Turkish priorities.

According to media reports, Turkish President Abdullah Gül will again seek to recruit Jewish-American opposition to an Armenian Genocide resolution during a visit to Israel early next year.

Finally, according to Chicago Tribune, Mr. Obama may be considering Turkey as the site for a major address within his first 100 days in office that would focus on U.S. policy in the Middle East.

In Georgia, calls for early elections, another reshuffle, and efforts to mend ties with Russia

Georgian Catholicos Ilia II visits Russian-occupied Gori in August 2008. Interpressnews photo

Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili replaced more ministers and faced new potential challengers to his power amid a gloomy economic outlook, Civil.ge reported this week and last.

Permanent Representative to the United Nations Irakly Alasania resigned his job and prepared to lead a newly established alliance of two opposition parties. Former parliament speaker (2001 –2008) Nino Burjanadze and former prime minister (2005–2007) Zurab Noghaideli have also joined the opposition to Mr. Saakashvili in recent months.

According to an opinion poll published by a Georgia newspaper Ms. Burjanadze and Mr. Alasania are the most popular picks for next Georgian president, although neither had commanding support.

The Georgian opposition has been divided on antigovernment tactics. While most have called on Mr. Saakashvili to resign, some parties think elections to parliament should be held before the presidential ones. The current parliament elected last May is dominated by president’s loyalists.

Mr. Saakashvili responded with new reshuffles, bringing in officials untainted by the August war to take cabinet posts and urged them to focus on shoring up the economy.

Last week, Prime Minister Grigol Mgaloblishvili put the Georgian ambassadors to the United States and Israel in charge of the defense and economics ministries, respectively. (Mr. Mgaloblishvili himself was Ambassador to Turkey until becoming prime minister last month.)

Mr. Alasania was reportedly offered a cabinet position as well, but declined.

In another development, Ghia Nodia, a political scientist and veteran member of the Western analytical circuit, left the post of education minister after an 11-month stint.

And in what may be seen as a gesture toward Russia, Grigol Vashadze, a Soviet-trained diplomat and Russian citizen, became foreign minister.

Reaching out to Russian leaders was Georgia’s Catholicos Ilia II who attended the funeral of the fellow Orthodox Patriarch Alexiy II of Russia and met with President Dmitry Medvedev on December 9.

Speaking at a meeting with a Georgian community in Moscow, Ilia II said in remarks aired by Georgian television and reported by Civil.ge: Georgia and Russia “are brothers, we are friends, we are of the same faith [Orthodox Christians] and we should be closer to each other.”

In early November, a Russian deputy foreign minister received a Georgian church delegation accompanied by Georgia’s ambassador to Russia under former President Eduard Shevardnadze.

Following the war in Ossetia, Russian leaders have called Mr. Saakashvili a “political corpse” and refused any contacts with him.

Azeris to attack Yerevan via Jerusalem and other scenic detours

Hardcore Ashura practitioners somewhere in the Middle East.

The Israeli rampage through Gaza is generating all kinds of weird reactions throughout what is known as the Muslim world. Just recently clerics in Iran asked their young people to not volunteer to fight against Israel.

Meantime, [in the breakaway former Iranian province of] Azerbaijan, at a January 7 event marking Ashura*, one local leader Haji Muxtar Rza suggested that "liberation of Karabakh and Iravan would pass through Quds." This is according to http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=94846.

A couple of clarifications and reflections are in order.

Since recently Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia, has been renamed into "Iravan" of the "occupied Western Azerbaijan." In early 2008, Ilham Aliyev publicly complained that "Iravan" was originally Azeri land that was treacherously "gifted" to Armenians.

Quds is of course Arabic for Jerusalem, 20 percent of which is occupied by an Armenian quarter.

So the local Haji is suggesting that by supporting the pan-Islamic agenda of capturing Quds, Azeri Muslims will be able to overrun Armenia after presumably overruning the Armenian quarter of Jerusalem.

A new route to be sure, but similar diversions have already been offered.

In their stated effort of overruning and wiping out Armenia, Azerbaijan's apparently atheistic ruling family have alternatively worked Moscow and Washington routes.

The geographically shortest diversion was proposed by late Azeri ex-president Abulfez Aliyev (Elchibey), a secular nationalist who would say that road to the Karabakh capital of Stepanakert lies via Tabriz.

Elchibey's mantra implied that a revanche against Armenia could be achieved via a pan-Turkic effort of "liberating" parts of northwestern Iran.

Considering that Armenians may be of extra-terrestial origin (see www.gagashev.net) the Azeri leaders' disinclination to confront them directly is perfectly understandable.

*this is the day when good Shiites hit themselves with various heavy and sometimes sharp objects in the effort to connect with the martyrdom of Ali's sons.

Russian arms transfer to Armenia alleged (or "Командкещи подарил акаСии")

Azeri complaints about Russian support for Armenia appear to be back in vogue - this may be another sign we have in fact cleared the post-9/11/01-period and are now in post-8/8/08 period that as far as Caucasus is concerned is more like the post-1991 and pre-2001 period of Russian regional military hegemony (and low oil prices!).

On January 8, MediaForum.az uploaded what looks like a two-page secret unsigned undated attachment on the letterhead of a Russian general – Viacheslav Golovchenko, deputy commander of the Russian forces in the Caucasus - that lists the types of weapons allegedly transferred from Russian base in Armenia to Armenian defense ministry.

The alleged document (in Russian below) contains a couple of grammatical errors and typos: specifically the words АкаЦия and Командующий are misspelled. This may be either because the alleged document is a forgery or just a legitimate scanning error.

UPDATE from a colleague: Two more typos found "катИгория" instead of "категория," and "гранатАмет" instead of "гранатомет." This makes it look more like a forgery.

The document lists as transferred: 21 tanks; 61 armored combat vehicles; 50 units of self-propelled and towed artillery; 9 MLRS systems; various air defense systems; light weapons; ammunition stockpiles; and equipment.

Nothing extraordinary and in relatively modest amount especially compared to massive acquisitions advertised by Azerbaijan in recent years.

If it is a real document, it most likely ended up in Azerbaijan as a result of being handed over by the Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdiukov who was in Baku in December for annual talks on bilateral defense cooperation.

Earlier in 2008, Russia reported to the United Nations that it transferred dozens of tanks and armored vehicles to Azerbaijan.

If it in fact occurred, this Russia to Armenia transfer may have been in part to offset deliveries to Azerbaijan.

But unlike their Armenian colleagues, Azeri media is seeking to make this into a big story having promptly converted the equipment list to an inflated dollar figure presumably for easy use in a PR campaign in the West (in a manner similar to the "1 billion dollar" campaign of the 1990s).

Members of the Azeri ruling clique have internalized the transfer as fact and branded it as a "scandal," "illegal," "sign of aggression" and "unfair."