Monday, January 26, 2015

My article on Turkey/Armenia in Jane's Intelligence Review

Armenia's foreign minister attends Erdogan's presidential
inauguration last August to invite him to Armenia.
The upcoming February 2015 edition of Jane's Intelligence Review (London) features my article "Date with Destiny: Centenary highlights Turkey's political shifts" on the impact of Armenian genocide centennial on Turkish policy on Armenia and its outreach to the Diaspora. The full article is only available by subscription, but its preview and Key Points are as follows:

"International efforts have failed to break the longstanding deadlock in Armenian-Turkish relations. Emil Sanamyan looks at the role of Azerbaijan, Russia, and the United States, and the potential impact of the imminent centenary of the Armenian genocide.

Key points

• The April 2015 centenary of the Armenian genocide is refocusing Turkey’s attention on Armenia and its diaspora, with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdo─čan considering an invitation to visit Armenia.

• The campaign for international recognition of the genocide appears to have stalled, but may receive a fresh boost from the United States.

• Although initiatives on the genocide issue will be subject to Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy calculus, there are no indications that Turkey will seek a normalisation of relations with Armenia.

For more go to

PS: Also a recent public opinion poll from Turkey:

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