Showing posts with label Armenian economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Armenian economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

New NK envoy, MCC aid cut, more ratings

This was first published in the September 12, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. appoints seasoned diplomat as next Karabakh envoy


Ambassador Robert Bradtke will serve as the U.S. co-chair of the international mediation group tasked with managing the Karabakh peace process, the State Department reported on September 7. The group, known as the OSCE Minsk Group, is co-chaired by Russia and France as well as the United States.

The State Department announcement reiterated the commitment of the Obama administration and Secretary Hillary Clinton "to doing everything possible" to bring about a "peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict." The newly appointed envoy is due to make "his first trip to the region in the coming weeks."

The appointment of Ambassador Bradtke is part of the larger transition from the Bush foreign policy team to the Obama team. It also marks a return to the past State Department approach, where the Karabakh issue was assigned to a senior diplomat as that diplomat's primary responsibility, rather than by the deputy assistant secretary in charge of regional affairs, as has been the case since 2004.

Mr. Bradtke is the ninth diplomat to serve as U.S. envoy for the Karabakh talks. Prior to this appointment, he served as ambassador to Croatia (2006-9) and before that as deputy assistant secretary of state dealing with Balkan and European security issues (2001-6).

A 36-year veteran of the Foreign Service, Mr. Bradtke worked at U.S. missions to the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, West Germany, and the United Kingdom. He was also executive assistant to Secretary of State Warren Christopher (1994-96) and executive secretary for President Bill Clinton's National Security Council (1999-2001).

As a congressional fellow in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Mr. Bradtke worked for the offices of then-Senator Charles Mathias (R.-Md.) and Rep. Dick Cheney (R.-Wyo.), who went on to become vice president of the United States.

A native of Chicago, the new envoy is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and di graduate work at the Johns Hopkins University and University of Virginia.

According to media reports, for the past several months the outgoing U.S. envoy for Karabakh, Matt Bryza has been under consideration for an assignment as the next U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan. But Mr. Bryza has also been a target of criticism over his allegedly close personal ties to Georgian and Azerbaijani leaders.

In an August 20 letter to Secretary Clinton, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) charged Mr. Bryza with anti-Armenian bias.

U.S. agency keeps Armenia aid cut in place

The U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) board held its regular quarterly meeting on September 9, with no new decisions on Armenia made public.

Last June, MCC cut $67 million out of Armenia's $235 million aid program, citing the Armenian government's handling of the 2008 presidential elections and subsequent opposition protests. With no new decisions taken, the aid cut in effect remains intact.

According to the agency's press release, its acting chief executive officer, Darius Mans, noted, "MCC is rapidly approaching cumulative disbursements of $1 billion and contract commitments of $2 billion focused on programs" in several dozen countries worldwide.

Among continuing programs is MCC's effort in Honduras, where an elected president was overthrown by the military earlier this summer. MCC said that it would hold $15 million in fresh funds, but will "continue with existing activities for which funds have been contractually obligated." The total MCC compact in Honduras is $215 million over five years.

The MCC board is chaired by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Rankings measure economic competitiveness, extent of state failure

Armenia is behind its neighbors when it comes to the ability to attract foreign investments and do business, while it has done a relatively better job establishing state institutions, recent studies say.

According to the Global Competitiveness Index published by the World Economic Forum and released on September 8, Armenia's ranking was unchanged at 97th, behind Azerbaijan (51st, registering improvement from 69th place last year), Turkey (61st, up from 63rd), Russia (63rd, down from 51st), and Georgia (90th, with its rank unchanged in spite of last year's conflict) out of 133 countries ranked.

The index, published since 2004, takes into account factors that normally serve as a draw for foreign investments. These include wealth, economic and social development, and stability, as well as market size; this leaves countries with smaller populations with a built-in disadvantage. These data is then combined with executive opinion surveys conducted among individuals doing business in particular countries.

The World Bank's Doing Business Report, released on September 9, put Armenia (ranked 43rd) behind Georgia (11th), Azerbaijan (38th), but ahead of Turkey (73rd) and Russia (120th).

That report focuses on the legislative framework for doing business and considers criteria such as the availability of credit, employment regulations, and the ease of getting permits.

Meanwhile, the latest Failed States Index, published by the journal Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace, identified Armenia as the only country in its neighborhood to avoid being described as "in danger" of state failure.

In reverse rankings, where the lower the rank the better off the country is believed to be, Armenia was ranked 101st and described as a "borderline" case, with Turkey (85th), Russia (71st), Azerbaijan (56th), Iran (38th), and Georgia (33rd) exhibiting various degrees of state failure.

The index, published since 2005, looks at state cohesion and performance in 177 countries studied.

While the two surveys might seem to produce contradictory results for Armenia and its neighbors, there is substantial overlap when it comes to identifying the most competitive and least failing states.

Coming up: Azerbaijani, Georgian, and Turkish officials in the U.S.

On September 14, European Union officials will gather in Brussels for a fresh review of the EU's policy in the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov will arrive in Washington the week of September 14 for the annual bilateral security dialogue session. On the 18th Mr. Azimov will join Undersecretary of State Bill Burns, former Sen. Chuck Hagel, and former State Department and congressional official David Kramer at a Georgetown University event.

Also is Washington next week will be Georgia's Deputy Prime Minister Georgi Baramidze. On September 15 he will discuss his country's priorities at the Atlantic Council of the United States.

Between September 20 and 23, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be in New York for the United Nations General Assembly and then in Pittsburgh for the summit of the world's 20 largest economies (the G20) on September 24-25.

Before proceeding to the G20 meeting, the presidents of the United States and Russia plan to meet in New York on September 23; the U.S. secretary of state will follow up on the talks with a visit to Moscow next month.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Humanizing the other side: Interview with Alex Avakian

This was first publised the March 7, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Photographer Alexandra Avakian seeks to “humanize the other side”
She has worked in some of the world’s most violent places


Alexandra Avakian has been a National Geographic photographer since 1995. Armenia, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Muslims in the United States have been among her assignments. From 1988 to 1996 she worked for Life, Time, and the New York Times Magazine, covering conflicts in Africa, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union, including the 1988 earthquake in Armenia and the war in Karabakh.

Ms. Avakian recently released a book, Windows of the Soul: My Journeys in the Muslim World, published by Focal Point / National Geographic. She completed it while she successfully battled breast cancer. The book includes a chapter on the former USSR, including a number of photos from Karabakh. She spoke about her work with Washington Editor Emil Sanamyan on February 13.


Professional roots

Armenian Reporter: What brought you to photography?

Alexandra Avakian: By the time I graduated from college, I was already very advanced, soon became a professional, and got my first paid job at Newsweek. And one of the most important reasons is my dad.

Ms. Avakian produces the November 1969 issue of Life magazine (“I just bought it on E-bay”) featuring the work of her father, the late Aram Avakian, a filmmaker best known for his 1969 film End of the Road. The article includes a picture of Ms. Avakian’s mother, actress Dorothy Tristan, and of Alexandra herself.

And the family’s artistic prominence by no means ends there. Aram’s brother George Avakian is a jazz music producer who was honored with a Grammy award on February 7.

Avakian: My dad taught me how to tell stories through pictures from the time I was very, very young. He sat me down on his lap as he was editing a movie, and he would say, “Here is where you cut the story and this is why.” And he would let me make the cut.

I would draw him a story on a blank strip of film that he would run through a Moviola, so that I could see the product. Photography was a way of expressing myself since the time I was very young.

By the time I finished college in 1983, I already had a portfolio of my work in Manhattan. And that was another thing, since I was born in New York City, I didn’t really have to go far to begin working for top magazines.

AR: And how did you end up going that far away from home?

Avakian: Already in college I was very fascinated by revolution and fights for freedom and how far people would go to be free. And it did not have anything to do with ideology.

I covered the Berlin Wall fall [in 1989] and ended up living in Moscow [from 1990 to 1992] during the fall of the Soviet Union, and I was fascinated with all these republics spinning away and what they were doing.

The other important thing that influenced my work deeply is my Armenian heritage. Like many Armenians, my family fled many terrible things, survived many horrors, and that led me to engage in world events and cover people’s suffering.

Learning what my family went through was the ultimate lesson in empathy for others. And working in regions my family had lived in was a way of reaching my ancestors and relatives who have passed and can no longer speak to me and tell me what it was like to live through these things. I felt the need to understand what human beings do to one another and why, and what it is like to be in the shoes of a refugee woman trying to escape with her children.

The strange and awful times in Armenia

AR: You went to Armenia following the earthquake in December 1988.…

Avakian: I did. We were on a family vacation in Egypt. And when I heard [the news] I felt I could never forgive myself if I did not get on the plane and go.

So, I went to the Soviet Embassy and there was an ethnic Armenian diplomat there. And I nagged him, “Please, I am an Armenian, I have got to go.” And he said, “You need an invitation [to go into USSR] but just go.”

When asked if the diplomat in question was the current foreign minister of Armenia, Edward Nalbandian, who worked for the Soviet Embassy in Egypt at the time, Ms. Avakian says: “You are probably right, but that was a long time ago.”

“It is interesting how many people who became well-known Armenians I met over the years while at work,” she adds later. “I met Robert Kocharian while he was organizing a protest in the Stepanakert street in 1989. And Arkady Ghukasian and I worked side by side on the front line when he was a war reporter in 1992.”


So he gave me a visa and I went, and I landed in Moscow, and I could never have imagined myself in that place. I was wearing very light clothing and it was snowing. I could not get a hotel room because I did not have an invitation.

But I had already been working for Time and Life magazines a lot and by the time I arrived in Moscow, I had an assignment to cover the earthquake. I went to their [Moscow] bureau, not realizing at the time that my life would center on that bureau and the former USSR for the next four years.

It took me a while to get permission to get out to Armenia. In the meantime, I photographed children evacuated from Armenia to Moscow and camped out at government buildings there.

Eventually, I went to Armenia for a month and lived with Armenian doctors from MSF [Doctors without Borders] in a broken-down school in Leninakan, now Gyumri.

It was a strange and awful time.

When I first arrived our plane had to land in Georgia because of the weather – I think a plane had just crashed trying to land in Armenia – and we drove in.

The first place we stopped was Spitak, and there were these trenches for the coffins. It was extremely difficult. To see people suffer is difficult enough and that was in a country where I have roots.

I saw very moving and very surprising things. Like in a war, [in a major calamity] you see the seemingly weak become strong and strong become weak; I saw a lot of that. ¬ere were villages where people were looking after one another and villages where aid trucks were attacked.

After covering the earthquake area, Time magazine had me stay on to cover some of the skirmishes on the border with Azerbaijan [in early 1989]. It was in the Kapan area [in southern Armenia].

There were these villagers mostly with hunting rifles and some with Kalashnikovs patrolling the area. I stayed at the home of one of their grandmothers, who was a very classic Armenian lady.

And then, being based in Moscow, I kept coming back to Armenia. But I also went to the Baltic states, Central Asia, and to Georgia and covered the wars there. (In fact, my grandmother was an Armenian from Tbilisi, whereas my grandfather was from an Armenian village in northwestern Iran.)

AR: When did you cover the Karabakh war?

Avakian: I got out there five or six times during the war and afterward as well.

The first time I really covered Karabakh was for the New York Times with Bill Keller in August 1989. We arrived in Baku – it was still possible for me to do this in the Soviet period – and we went by train to Aghdam and then to Shushi and Stepanakert.

There was not an out-and-out war yet. Armenians and Azeris were fighting village to village. [The Soviet envoy] Arkady Volsky was still in [charge of Karabakh] and Soviet troops were very much there.

The next time I went in March 1992. Things got really intense by then. My Armenian colleagues in Yerevan discouraged me from going, but I again really felt like I had to go. In the end they gave me a bulletproof vest and a map. We took a small plane in that landed like this [makes a corkscrew motion].

AR: What did you see?

Avakian: It was bad. People were losing their minds because they were living underground [in bomb shelters] for so long. 158 or 159 Grad missiles landed on Stepanakert in one day. It was nuts.

It was also fascinating because I got permission to work at the front line in the trenches between Askeran and Aghdam. And it was as wild and out of control as wars get.

I went to one of the exchanges, where prisoners, civilians, as well as bodies were traded. And as we were driving away a shell flew right over the hood of the Armenian commander’s car we were in. ¬

They tried to kill us. And it was not the guys with whom the trade was done because their commander was actually a friend of the Armenian commander’s. And you could tell the shell came from another direction.

I could no longer cross the line to the Azeri side – it was impossible at that time. And in fact it was not possible for a while before and after. As a journalist you want to reach the other side but it was just not possible [because of my Armenian background].

Windows of the Soul is not about Armenia – that I will get to, perhaps when I do a book on the fall of Communism or something – but I decided to include Karabakh.

The last time I went to Karabakh was in 2003 when I did a story on Armenia for National Geographic.
I guess I have been to Armenia 15 times all together.

AR: And how did Armenia strike you that time?

Avakian: The previous time I went was in 1994, shortly after the cease-fire, so there was a big difference. But there were three things that were challenging for Armenia.

In Gyumri, there were still people living in a bad situation in makeshift housing. There were so many Armenian men going to work in Russia, leaving women and children alone. And something that former Soviet republics have difficulty focusing on with all the other problems – the environmental issues, like industrial waste.

But it was a much happier time and I really felt the country was really healing at that time.

Importance of mutual respect

AR: You worked in Iran – covering Ayatollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1988 and again later – and you worked with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Was it especially challenging for a woman?

Avakian: I had to wear extremely strict hijab (modest dress with head covering) in 1988. Now it is much looser, you can show more hair, but then it was really strict. It was never my role to challenge those mores at all. For me wearing a scarf was like having a passport. And when I wear it, I am treated with respect and people know that I respect their culture. And I am happy about that.

There is a chapter in the book about Muslim-Americans. I spent almost two years with them after the September 11 attacks. In one of the assignments, I photographed the Muslim population of Graterford prison in Pennsylvania – some 800 inmates, mostly African-Americans – they are mainstream Sunni Muslims and just a few Nation of Islam guys.

It was a maximum-security facility, a lot of [people] sentenced to life in prison. But when I went in, even though it is America, I went in full Islamic dress to show respect to the Muslim elders at the prison. I was coming to ask them if I could photograph their Friday prayers.

And they were very welcoming to me. Moreover, they protected me in this very dangerous facility, because when you are deep inside a prison like that there are no armed guards around.

World’s least frequented places

AR: What was the most dangerous place that you have been to?

Avakian: There are different levels of danger.

Living in Gaza, anything could happen any time. I was shot at by an Israeli sniper and beaten bloody by Hamas just doing my job. It was at the time of riots against Yasser Arafat’s Palestinian authority.

[In the latter case] I had to go the Hamas sheikh in the area that I lived in to complain, because I could not be beaten like that and continue living in that place. And the next day they ordered from the minarets that journalists are not to be attacked.

Somalia definitely was most dangerous in terms of going from place A to place B. You could not do it without bodyguards. ¬They could kill you for a can of coke, your sunglasses, or nothing. I was there for five months and people were dying from starvation all around and clans were fighting each other.

In the book there is a story about a 12-year-old boy trying to kill me. For nothing. His gun was practically as big as he was. And I yelled at him, “I could be your mother.” And other gunmen around actually took his gun away from him. It was a gamble, but it turned out OK.

AR: And how was southern Sudan? How did you even get in there?

Avakian: I was in Nairobi, Kenya, and wanted to cover Sudan, where the famine was getting worse. With a few journalist friends we rented a little plane, with Time magazine and Reuters splitting the costs.

We went and spent some time in Ayod, this tragic village with the Irish aid group Concern. ¬The people were starving to death there in large numbers. And the axle on the plane breaks as it hits a hole in the earthen landing strip on takeoff and we wait for another plane.

And then we fly to this other village, Yuai, to photograph the rebel chief and his guerilla fighters. The writers, including the Time correspondent, did their interviews and they said “we are done” straight after they finished their interview with the commander.

And the United Nations [people] said, “we are done too,” because they could not operate anymore with the front line getting so close. All the aid agencies left and I stayed along with two other journalists because I did not have my story yet. (In addition to starving civilians I needed to cover the rebels.)

I finally got out of there after being stranded with no way out after my work was done, when an aid plane dropped some bags of food and I jumped aboard. But all the people of that village were massacred a couple of weeks later if they were too weak to run. I can never forget them.

From violence to dialogue

Now, for many years I no longer cover open conflicts. By the time National Geographic first hired me in 1995 I felt I was really done. I had seen too many funerals and I felt lucky to be in one piece.

But before that, [covering conflicts] was my job and my calling. Starting with the Haitian uprising against Jean-Claude Duvalier in 1986 and through 1995, I was covering conflicts.

But I am still interested in revolutions and revolutionary societies are fascinating. And I love culture. I am always interested in covering the other side.

Iran, for example, is fascinating for all those reasons. It is a very old culture, by now also an old revolution and also a long-time enemy of the United States.

It is very interesting to go to the other side and capture the humanity of people. How they get up in the morning and have breakfast. How they dress. How they worship, whatever their religion. All these things humanize the other side and this is especially important in a post 9/11 world of deep misunderstandings. Because then I feel like there is a chance for dialogue.

AR: The recently elected President Barack Obama has been talking about the need for dialogue with the Muslim world. Having spent so much time in that world, what advice can you offer?

Avakian: I am not an advocate. I always try to cover both sides. I think that is my duty as a reporter. What I think I have learned is that all over the world people want to feed their families, they want freedom of speech and security, they want respect. ¬This is what all people share.

Now, looking back at the many conflict areas I covered it seems economics are at the root of many conflicts. People need to have an opportunity to make a living, to protect their families, and to build a decent life.

Alexandra Avakian is a senior member of the prestigious Contact Press Images, N.Y. photo agency. For Avakian’s National Geographic blog, book, gallery, bio and more visit:
http://blogs.nationalgeographic.com/blogs/photography/windowsofthesoul

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Currency depreciation in Armenia

According to reports from Yerevan on March 3-4, the Dram to $ exchange rate has settled at about 372 to $ after briefly shooting up to as high as 400, a devaluation of between 22 to 30%. On initial news there were instances of panic buying with some supermarkets suspending sales.

The talk of depreciation has been in the air for months now that most of the world economy is in recession. Most currencies, including the Euro, have devalued relative to USD since last summer.

From a non-economist's perspective this is how it works: since most of the world trade is pegged to USD, economic slowdown = decline in production = decline in income for individual countries puts pressure on their currencies to devalue relative to USD, unless the relevant financial authorities use their dollar reserves to continue to buy their currency thus propping it up.

In Armenia's neighborhood, Ruble devalued from about 25/$ last September stabilizing at 36/$ between January and today (50% depreciation over 4 months). Russia had $600 billion in foreign reserves before the crisis; now that fund has shrunk to nearly half after much of it was spent on propping up the ruble and "stimulus" injections elsewhere in the economy.

In Ukraine, Hryvnia devalued from 4.7 to $ in September stabilizing between 8 and 8.5/$ this month (a 90% drop).

Meantime, Georgia and Kazakhstan followed scenarios more similar to Armenia's.

In one or two days in November 2008 - shortly after Georgia secured promises of billions in Western aid - the Georgian Lari fell by 10%; with overall depreciation since last September at about 20 percent. (Considering the regional picture another correction is likely there).

And on February 6 2009, Kazakh Tenge fell by 20 percent relative to USD, with overall depreciation since September at about 25 percent.

All this time, Dram remained steady at 305/$, propped up by the Central Bank, which spent an estimated $400 million in the process. This is being criticized now but without a large economy and with not much cash in the bank – the government probably feared the devaluation would get out of hand.

In the last several weeks, having secured promises of more than $1 billion in credit lines from Russia and IMF (which is almost as much as Armenia's existing foreign currency reserves), the government has decided to let the Dram depreciate, now being in a better position to be able to stabilize it.

Both the government and IMF are predicting the new rate will settle at about 360-380 dram/$. But the general tendency of people to panic, including the run on exchange shops and banks underway since last week, is making the process more volatile and painful that it already is.

If the process stabilizes as promised this will be a temporary shock, but end result will still be that most Armenians will be 20-30% poorer in dollar terms and prices for many imports traded in dollars will go up (that's one of the reasons behind the talk of switching transactions with Russia to rubles, misconstrued by some as Armenia "entering the ruble zone").

If devaluation gets out of control PM Tigran Sarkisian will probably be the one – unfortunately – taking the blame. Unfortunately, because he is one of the few officials who actually understands the problem and is focused on trying to temper the impact of the global crisis on Armenia.


According to IMF forecasts, devaluation of AMD will make from 17 to 30%-03.03.09

Yerevan, March 3. /Mediamax/. According to IMF forecasts, recession in Armenia in 2009 will make 1.5%.

Mediamax reports that IMF representative in Armenia Ninke Omes said this today. She welcomed the crisis prevention measures by the Armenian government and the decision of the Central Bank to shift back to the policy of floating exchange rate, noting the importance of market regulation of AMD exchange rate.

“According to IMF assessments, devaluation of AMD will be within the range of 17-30%”, Ninke Omes stated, adding that in 2009 inflation in Armenia is expected at the level of 8%.--0--