Clinton on Iran, Biden, others on Russia & Georgia

This was first published in August 1, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Clinton indicates shift in U.S. thinking on Iran nuclear program

With chances for a new government in Tehran quickly receding, American leaders have renewed warnings over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program, news agencies report.

The Obama administration is unhappy with the lack of Iranian response to its offer of dialogue, with the president and secretary of state hinting that the offer might expire before the end of the year. U.S. officials also insist that they find a nuclear-armed Iran "unacceptable."

Secretary Hillary Clinton has in the past threatened fresh "crippling sanctions" as a form of pressure on Iran should it continue policies that bring it close to acquiring nuclear weapons.

But in an apparent verbal slipup, Mrs. Clinton referred last week to a "defense umbrella" that the United States might extend to its Middle East allies, The Associated Press reported. Although Mrs. Clinton denied it indicated U.S. acceptance that Iran will eventually become nuclear-armed, that is how the comment was taken by most observers.

During her presidential election campaign, Mrs. Clinton used the term to describe a policy that would call for a U.S. commitment to retaliate against Iran should it use nuclear weapons against Israel or other regional allies of the United States, and thus theoretically deter Iran.

The concept had been articulated by the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy, including its former senior staff member Ambassador Dennis Ross, who is now the Obama administration's point man on Iran.

The apparent shift in U.S. thinking has worried Israel, whose officials argue that deterrence cannot be effective against Iran. In recent weeks, Israeli leaders from the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have renewed claims Israel might launch a military strike against Iran in an attempt to postpone its progress toward nuclear weapons.

U.S. reaction to Israeli threats has been mixed.

Vice President Joe Biden said in early July that the United States could not tell Israel what it could do to safeguard its security; but President Barack Obama then denied that the comments were a "green light" for an Israeli attack on Iran.

Biden comments on Russian economy, Georgian politics

Then-Senator Joe Biden in Tbilisi with Pres. Saakashvili and his spouse, August 17, 2009. U.S. Embassy in Georgia

Russia will be forced to cooperate with the United States because Russia will grow economically and politically weaker, Vice President Joe Biden told the Wall Street Journal at the end of his trip to Georgia last week.

Mr. Biden made the comments when asked why he thought the U.S. policy of reaching out to Russia would succeed while the United States continues to oppose a Russian "sphere of influence" in the former Soviet space. Mr. Biden also predicted a Russian banking collapse in the next 15 years.

Speaking to NBC's Meet the Press last Sunday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sought to address Russia's irritation at Mr. Biden's comments.

"Every country faces challenges. We have our challenges, Russia has their challenges," she said, but "we view Russia as a great power."

The vice president also expressed doubts about future of democracy in Georgia.

"What worries me most is they don't understand how to establish democracy," Mr. Biden said.

President Mikheil Saakashvili "has the impulses of what was the Rose Revolution. It was: 'We're in the street, you get your a** out of office, or we're going to do something.'

"It was a cry for freedom, and it was a demonstration of a total rejection of the other government. It's a leap from there to say, 'Here's how democratic institutions work.'"

U.S. officials, Congress members debate relations with Russia

In testimony before the House Subcommittee on Europe on July 28, Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Celeste Wallander discussed the aftermath of President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow in early July.

The two officials agreed that concerns over Iran's nuclear program also dominate U.S. thinking in its efforts to engage the Russian government.

Members of the subcommittee appeared split on the likelihood of a successful engagement with Russia, with subcommittee chair Robert Wexler (D.-Fla.) and others appearing skeptical.

On the other side of the debate, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R.-Calif.) was most upbeat on Russia and dismissive of U.S. support for the former Soviet republics.

To address, what Rep. Rohrabacher described as two overarching U.S. foreign policy concerns - radical Islamism and communist China - the United States needed the support of "giant" Russia rather than an "alliance of Lilliputians." Rep. Rohrabacher also suggested that it was Russia rather than its smaller neighbors that should be brought into NATO.

Rep. Bill Delahunt (D.-Mass.) expressed concerns over reports that Georgia was seeking to acquire weapons from the United States and said he was strongly opposed to such a move.

In a response, Ms. Wallander noted that the United States believes Georgia is "not ready" to receive U.S. weapons, but did not rule out such supplies in the future. For now, U.S. military support for Georgia will continue to focus on military training programs.

Russia, Turkey to hold fresh high-level talks

Russian premier Vladimir Putin will visit with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on August 6, the Russian and Turkish governments announced on July 30.

According to media reports, cooperation on nuclear energy as well as Russian oil and gas exports to and through Turkey will dominate the agenda. Earlier this year, a Russian company was the only bidder for the Turkish nuclear-energy tender. Preliminary talks have been held by Turkish and Russian officials overseeing energy issues.

Russia is Turkey's biggest trade partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $33 billion last year.

Reflecting the intensity of high-level contacts, Mr. Putin's visit will become his ninth meeting with the Turkish leader; they previously met in Russia last May.

Iranian ambassador hopeful about Silva Harotonian appeal

by Armenian Reporter staff
Published: Wednesday July 01, 2009

YEREVAN - At a news conference in Yerevan on July 1, Seyed Ali Saghaeyan, the Iranian ambassador, said he was hopeful that the Iranian court hearing Silva Harotonian's appeal would make a favorable ruling. Reports citing the Armenian-language translation of ambassador's remarks [in response to a question from Mediamax news agency] were carried by several news agencies in Armenia.

While noting that it was up to Iran's judiciary to make a decision on the case, Mr. Saghaeyan expressed hope that the appeal for clemency launched by Ms. Harotonian's lawyers would be reviewed positively.

Ms. Harotonian, an Iranian citizen of Armenian descent, worked as an administrative staffer for a medical project run by the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX), an organization sponsored by the U.S. government, when she was arrested just over a year ago. She was reportedly coerced into a false confession of having worked against the Iranian government, on behalf of the United States, and earlier this year sentenced to three years in prison.

Meanwhile, a source familiar with the case told the Armenian Reporter that three Iranian men tried and imprisoned along with Ms. Harotonian have been released temporarily from Tehran's Evin prison. According to the source, the three were released because of overcrowding at the prison after the postelection arrests of protestors and were expected to report back.

U.S. officials have said the charges against Ms. Harotonian, were "baseless" and there have been reports that her health has deteriorated in prison.

Ms. Harotonian's case has also been embraced by leading human rights organizations. On June 30, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch cosponsored a press conference on the subject in New York.

Speaking in New York, Klara Moradkhan expressed hope that the recent crackdown in Iran would not negatively affect her cousin's case.

"Silva's imprisonment from the beginning was a misunderstanding. We never thought her situation now has anything to do with what's going on" with the protests, Reuters quoted Ms. Moradkhan as saying.

Fresh appeal launched for Silva Harotonian’s freedom

U.S. aid worker has been in Iranian prison for full year
by Emil Sanamyan
Published: Thursday June 25, 2009

Journalist Roxana Saberi during a June 24 press conference in Paris calling for the release of her former cellmate, aid worker Silva Harotonian. Eric Lefeuvre / FreeSilva.org

Washington - Amid Iran's postelection crisis and mass arrests of antigovernment activists now underway, supporters have met to renew their appeal for release of Silva Harotonian, a U.S. aid worker who this week marked a full year of incarceration in Tehran.

Gathering in Paris on June 24, her former cellmate Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi, cousin Klara Moradkhan, and others sought to remind the public of Ms. Harotonian's plight.

"I was very fortunate to have been freed and fortunate because there was a lot of international attention on my case," Ms. Saberi said, appealing for public support to win Ms. Harotonian's release, The Associated Press reported.

Ms. Saberi was released last month, shortly after having being given a lengthy prison sentence on charges of espionage. A citizen of Iran and the United States, she returned to her father's country of birth and worked as freelance journalist, including for BBC and PBS.

Ms. Harotonian worked as an administrative staffer for a medical project run by the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX), an organization sponsored by the U.S. government, when she was arrested. She was reportedly coerced into a false confession of having worked against the Iranian government, on behalf of the United States, and earlier this year sentenced to three years in prison.

U.S. officials have said the charges against Ms. Harotonian, an Iranian citizen of Armenian descent, were "baseless" and there have been reports that her health has deteriorated in prison.

In an interview with Anita Vogel of Fox News, Ms. Saberi recalled how Ms. Harotonian "helped me feel I wasn't alone. She was the first person I really trusted, the first person I told about my false confession."

Also taking part in the event were IREX President Robert Pearson (who is also a former ambassador to Turkey) and Iranian human rights activists Karim Lahidji and Hadi Ghaemi, who described the ongoing postelection crackdown in Iran, which has been condemned by the United States and European states.

It is unclear if the turmoil in Iran has interfered in any way with the second and final appeal launched by Ms. Harotonian's lawyers.

"If it is one in a thousand, why would we give up hope?" Mr. Pearson was quoted as saying by Fox News when asked about the odds the Iranian government would reconsider Ms. Harotonian's sentence.

connect: FreeSilva.org

Iran aftermath, Kremlin summit prep., Congress on slavery and foreign aid

This was first published in June 27, 2009 issue of the Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama condemns crackdown in Iran, but says he “respects its sovereignty”

Khamenei (on left) and Rafsanjani

As the crackdown on antigovernment protestors intensified in Iran, President Barack Obama condemned Tehran, but insisted that "the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran" and that it was up to Iranians to determine their future.

In Tehran, security forces appeared to have regained control of the streets, after using tear gas and occasionally live ammunition to disperse demonstrations that have continued virtually nonstop since the June 12 presidential election. At least 17 people have died in the process and thousands, including dozens of intellectuals and journalists, are believed to have been jailed.

The post-election standoff in Iran pitted two groups with roots in the 1979 revolution against each other, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on one side, and two ex-presidents, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammed Khatami, and former prime minister and the main election challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi on the other.

The election results, rejected by the opposition, have been formally endorsed by Iran's Guardians' Council, confirming that the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad camp has been able to retain the upper hand inside the political establishment.

Ahead of Moscow summit, U.S. reasserts role in ex-USSR

As President Obama readied for talks with Russian leaders early next month, the United States held "strategic partnership" talks with Georgia and succeeded in having Kyrgyzstan reverse its decision to close the U.S. air base on its soil.

U.S.-Russia talks slated for July 6-8 are expected to focus on a new nuclear disarmament treaty, as well as international concerns about Iran and North Korea. But according to media commentary, recurring disagreements over former Soviet republics, which the Kremlin has declared an area of its "privileged interests," are likely to continue to provide fodder for tension.

In recent weeks, Russia and the West disagreed on international monitoring in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia recognized as independent from Georgia. Talks on the status of two entities have come to an impasse.

On June 22 Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg reaffirmed "strong support for Georgia's independence and territorial integrity" in talks with visiting Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze. Bilateral talks followed up on the Strategic Partnership Charter signed last January under the Bush administration.

Following the talks, Mr. Steinberg noted that the United States is proving Georgia with $1 billion in aid in the aftermath of the war with Russia and promised continued support for the Georgian military.

And in Kyrgyzstan, the United States succeeded in getting Bishkek to reverse its decision earlier this year to close an air base used for U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan. According to media reports, the United States promised to triple the rent paid for Manas air base, while also overlooking the incumbent president's crackdown on the opposition ahead of elections next month.

A century and a half later, Congress apologizes for slavery

Both houses of Congress have now passed resolutions apologizing for past treatment of African-Americans, including slavery and segregation. The Senate voted unanimously to do so on June 18; the House of Representatives had done so in July 2008, U.S. media reported.

The move was praised by President Barack Obama, but received largely low-key and mixed reactions around the United States. Critics particularly pointed to a clause that suggested that the apology should not be used in support of claims of restitution.

The Senate resolution was co-sponsored by Senators Tom Harkin (D.-Iowa) and Sam Brownback (R.-Kan.) The efforts in the House are led by Rep. Steve Cohen (D.-Tenn.), who has expressed vociferous opposition to the recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

According to Mother Jones magazine, in 1988 the United States apologized and offered compensation to Japanese-Americans for internments during World War II. In 2005, the House, and in 2008, the Senate voted to apologize to Native Americans "for the many instances of violence, maltreatment, and neglect" inflicted against them by the United States.

Last April, President Obama indicated that the United States might apologize for some of its past policies in Latin America, where Washington had been accused of organizing coups and assassinations.

Foreign aid bill endorsed by House Appropriations Committee

Legislation that sets out foreign-aid allocations and was passed in the House Foreign Operations Subcommittee on June 17 was approved by the full House Appropriations Committee on June 23.

The Fiscal Year 2010 allocations approved last week included $48 million in aid to Armenia, $10 million to Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as $3.45 million each in military aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Additionally, according to the text of the legislation made available by the Armenian Assembly, it "directs that the Department of State consult with the Committees on Appropriations before exercising [Section 907] waiver for fiscal year 2010 to ensure that all conditions under the waiver provision are being fully met."

Section 907 has restricted U.S. assistance to Azerbaijan since 1993, but after September 11, 2001, the president received conditional authority to waive the measure.

The committee language also noted that "Section 907 is still in effect, pending a settlement of the ongoing dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh."

After adoption in the full House of Representatives, the measure would need to be reconciled with the Senate version, which is yet to be produced.

Coming up:

On June 28-29, Israeli president Shimon Peres will visit Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

On July 6-8, President Barack Obama will visit Russia for talks that are likely to focus on Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea, but might also include discussion of Caucasus concerns.

And on July 20-24, Vice President Joe Biden will visit Ukraine and Georgia.

French president Nicolas Sarkozy has postponed his anticipated trip to the Caucasus and Kazakhstan.

Bryza & Baku, anti-trafficking progress, lobbying against Gen. Res., Kyrgyz and Iran elections

This was first published in June 20, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Possible pick for U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan criticized

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza, left, with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, right, during the latest Armenian-Azerbaijani summit in Russia, June 5. . Armenian president's press office

Matt Bryza, who has been the U.S. envoy for Karabakh negotiations since 2005, may be considered for a posting as U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan, a well-connected Foreign Policy magazine blog, The Cable, reported on June 12.

Mr. Bryza declined to comment when asked about the report by the Armenian Reporter.

The Cable cited former Clinton and Bush administration officials who raised concerns that Mr. Bryza's reputed closeness to Georgia's leadership - and his handling of the Ossetia crisis last year - might irritate Moscow, thus undermining U.S. efforts to engage with Russia.

In his current capacity, Mr. Bryza was frequently a target of criticism for his contradictory and controversial remarks on Karabakh. Last February, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tigran Balayan charged him with "hindering the negotiation process," Arminfo reported at the time.

Writing in Harper's website on June 17, Washington-based investigative journalist Ken Silverstein described Mr. Bryza as a "friend of the Azeri dictator" Ilham Aliyev.

Prior to dealing with Karabakh as an deputy assistant secretary of state, Mr. Bryza managed Caucasus and Turkey affairs at the White House in 2001-2005 and before that was the deputy U.S. envoy for Caspian energy in 1998-2001, dealing mainly with Azerbaijan.

Armenian sources familiar with Mr. Bryza's work at the State Department were harsh in their assessments of his track record.

Asked to comment, California Courier publisher Harut Sassounian told the Armenian Reporter, "everyone is tired of Bryza's antics of repeatedly saying one thing in one capital and then denying it in a second capital. He has cried wolf too many times and has lost all credibility."

Another source, who asked not to be named, predicted that "should Mr. Bryza become the president's nominee, he can expect comprehensive congressional questioning over his role" in U.S. policy in the Caucasus.

Separately, The Cable reported that Nancy McEldowney, the former deputy chief of U.S. diplomatic missions in Ankara (2004-2007) and Baku (2001-2004), will become the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Eurasia.

State Dept. sees improvement in Armenia’s anti-trafficking policy

Armenia has been removed from the U.S. human trafficking "watch list," the State Department reported on June 16. After spending five years on the list, Armenia was credited with "significant efforts" to meet U.S. standards on fighting trafficking in persons, although it was still short of meeting them.

The U.S. Congress passed the Trafficking Victims Protection Act in 2001, mandating that the State Department issue annual reports that rate the world's efforts to counter human trafficking for the purposes of forced labor or prostitution.

Theoretically, the most egregious offenders could see a cut in U.S. aid. But no sanctions have ever been implemented under the act. See http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/06/124872.htm for the complete report.

U.S. companies with Turkey interests lobby against Genocide resolution

Major arms producers BAE Systems Inc., Goodrich Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp., Raytheon Co., and United Technologies Corp. and energy producer Chevron Corp. lobbied against the Armenian Genocide resolution introduced in U.S. Congress earlier this year, The Associated Press reported on June 12 citing mandatory lobbying disclosures.

The companies spent a total of $14 million on lobbying for contracts and tax incentives and it was unclear how much of the amount was spent against the congressional resolution. Additional lobbying for Turkey is done by firms hired directly by the Turkish government and Turkish-American entities.

Seeking to win Ankara's favor, U.S. corporations looking to do business in Turkey have long lobbied against honoring Armenian lives lost in the Genocide.

One the resolution's main sponsors, Rep. Adam Schiff (D.-Calif.) charged the companies involved with not being ‘‘good corporate citizens.''

U.S. seeks to keep Kyrgyzstan airbase

President Obama sent a letter to Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev emphasizing the importance of bilateral security ties, the Kyrgyz government reported on June 11, according to news agencies.

The letter was meant as a fresh appeal for the Central Asian nation to reverse its decision to close a U.S. air base on its soil that has been used in support of Afghanistan operations. Last February, Kyrgyzstan gave the United States six months to close the base after receiving a $2 billion aid package from Russia.

During a regional summit meeting in Yekatirinburg, Russia, on June 16, Mr. Bakiyev pledged continued cooperation with the United States on Afghanistan security.

Paul Quinn-Judge, the Bishkek-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels think tank, told Eurasianet.org on June 17 that current expectations are that the U.S. base would stay open in spite of an earlier decision to close it by August 18.

Mr. Bakiyev is seen as hedging his bets, as he faces an election contest on July 22.

World watching Iran’s post-election crisis

Street clashes and large-scale protests that followed Iran's June 12 presidential election continue to grab headlines as the United States and others try to make sense of the crisis, watching for any potential impact it might have on Iran's relations with the world.

Official figures gave the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad more than 60 percent of the vote and a first-round victory against former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who was credited with about half as many votes. But Mr. Mousavi's supporters and sympathizers say the vote was a sham and have held protests demanding its annulment.

While President Barack Obama said he did not want to be seen as "meddling" in Iran's politics, he implicitly criticized the handling of the vote and most of America's political class remained overtly hopeful that Mr. Ahmadinejad, known for his controversial rhetoric, could be sidelined.

Meanwhile, China and Russia were quick to recognize Mr. Ahmadinejad's victory, with Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev hosting Iran's president on June 16 for a regional summit meeting.

In Europe, France's President Nicolas Sarkozy was most outspoken. Shortly before attending the funeral of Gabon's ruler of more than 40 years and France's protégé, Mr. Sarkozy criticized Iran's election as a "fraud" and its government reaction "brutal."

In scenes reminiscent of recent election-related crises in Armenia and Georgia, angry opposition supporters filled the streets of the capital Tehran and other major cities, while pro-government groups sought to counter with demonstrations of their own. On June 15 seven protestors were killed as they tried to make their way inside the headquarters of Basij, the pro-government militia.

Observers have compared the post-election ferment to demonstrations that preceded the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew Iran's Shah. But in a major difference, in addition to support in the streets, Mr. Mousavi has strong endorsements from within Iran's establishment, including two of Mr. Ahmadinejad's predecessors as president, Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005) and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989–97) – who continues to hold powerful posts – as well as many celebrities.

Iran's supreme leader for the last 20 years, Ali Khamenei, under pressure from some fellow religious leaders, has already called for a partial recount of votes.

The ongoing crisis follows an earlier setback for Iran in Lebanon, where a Tehran-backed coalition failed to unseat a ruling alliance backed by the West and Saudi Arabia in June 7 elections.

Obama in Cairo, Davutoglu at UN, Russia/Georgia talks, Iran elections

First published in June 6, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Barack Obama urges fresh start with Muslim world

In a much-anticipated address, President Barack Obama acknowledged on June 4 misunderstandings between the United States and many Muslims, and also stressed that "America and Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition."

The almost-one-hour-long speech was delivered at Cairo University in Egypt before an audience of 3,000; it was also carried live worldwide. Among other things, the president sought to emphasize shared values between Christians, Jews, and Muslims, frequently quoting from holy books.

Mr. Obama also promised a more evenhanded approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict rather than simply supporting Israel's actions unconditionally, as was the case under George W. Bush.

Earlier this year, Mr. Obama had already addressed Muslims via the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV, in a Nowrooz message to Iranians, and during a visit to Turkey.

Separately, on June 1, the United States' Caspian energy envoy Richard Morningstar delivered a letter from Mr. Obama to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

According to reports in the Azerbaijani press, Mr. Obama stressed the importance of exporting energy products in and near Azerbaijan, and pledged to offer America's "partnership" and "friendship" for continued progress on energy issues.

FM: Turkey wants new emphasis on U.S. ties, continued Armenia talks

U.S.-Turkey relations should be forward-looking and "make contributions to humanity" rather than excessively focus, as they have, on military cooperation, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told the American-Turkish Council (ATC) conference in a keynote address on June 2, Zaman reported.

The annual ATC conference is primarily funded by major U.S. weapons producers with a long history of selling their products to the Turkish military. It featured appearances by top military officers from both countries - Admiral Mike Mullen and General Ilker Basbug - who, Mr. Davutoglu noted, have known one another for 30 years.

Drawing a parallel between the United States and Roman Empire, Mr. Davutoglu urged the United States to take the more thoughtful, multilateral foreign-policy approach of Marcus Aurelius, rather than the unilateral approach of Julius Caesar.

Asked at a press conference the following day about Armenia-Turkey talks, Mr. Davutoglu sought to portray the process as continuing, albeit slowly. He also reiterated the linkage of Armenia-Turkey talks and the Karabakh dispute as "processes that positively support each other." He warned, however, that "moving frozen conflicts is a painful process which necessitates patience."

Mr. Davutoglu also acknowledged the link between Armenia-Turkey talks and Armenian-American efforts to pass a congressional resolution on the Armenian Genocide.

He argued that a "positive pace" in Armenia-Turkey talks will have to be maintained so that "the Armenian issue [is] no longer an issue blocking Turkish-American relations."

During a weeklong U.S. trip, the Turkish foreign minister also visited the United Nations headquarters in New York, as Turkey assumed the Security Council's rotating presidency.

Russia, Georgia may discuss opening of border crossing

While the rhetoric between Moscow and Tbilisi remains acrimonious, the Russian Foreign Ministry has proposed to hold talks with Georgian diplomats on reopening the main highway linking the two countries at the Lars checkpoint. A formal request was reportedly made on May 24, and Georgian officials have said they agreed to begin talks.

Before being closed by Russia in 2006, formally for repairs but also as a form of pressure on Georgia, the road served as a key ground-transportation link for Armenia, which has since had to rely on Black Sea ferry links that bypassed the Russian-Georgian border.

Meanwhile in Tbilisi, the Georgian opposition campaign against incumbent President Mikheil Saakashvili began to unravel, after failing to win substantial public support. One of the main opposition leaders, Irakly Alasania, has effectively split from others in the opposition coalition, most notably Nino Bourjanadze and Levan Gachechiladze, by calling for dialogue with Mr. Saakashvili.

Iran’s president faces strong electoral challenge

Early expectations that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would easily win reelection in voting on June 12 have now been replaced with those of a close race with a former prime minister, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, with the outcome likely to be decided in a runoff election.

According to media reports, the two candidates launched into personal attacks as they debated one another on live television on June 3. The debate became so heated that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, reportedly intervened to halt it.

Mr. Mousavi was prime minister between 1981 and 1989, during the years of war with Iraq. He has criticized Mr. Ahmadinejad for doing a disservice to Iran as president. Mr. Mousavi is backed by Mr. Ahmadinejad's predecessor Mohammad Khatami, who was president between 1997 and 2005.

Coming up: Sarkozy, Gordon, and Peres in the Caucasus, Obama in Russia

Recently appointed Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon will be in the Caucasus the week of June 8, visiting Armenia on June 9.

On June 25–26, French president Nicolas Sarkozy will visit Kazakhstan and the three Caucasus states. France is one of the lead mediators in Karabakh negotiations.

On June 28, Israeli president Shimon Peres will be in Baku, as part of a trip to Central Asia.

And between July 6 and 8, President Barack Obama will visit Russia for talks that are likely to focus on Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea, but might also include discussion of Caucasus concerns.

Silva Harotonian update, Rxns to Obama aid request, UN HRC vote

This was first published in May 16, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S., family continue to call for Iranian-Armenian’s release

With Roxana Saberi, an Iranian­-American journalist released this week, the family of Iranian-­Armenian aid worker Silva ­Harotonian urged Iranian authorities to offer her clemency as well.

In a May 13 statement distributed by Fox News, Klara Moradkhan, Ms. Harotonian's American cousin, suggested that "the very basis on which Ms. Saberi was freed - Iran's recognition that it and the United States are not in a state of hostility toward one another - would support Silva's release as well under Iranian law."

Ms. Harotonian was arrested in June 2008 and was last January sentenced to a three-year prison term. The Iranian legal system is currently considering her second and final appeal. Ms. Harotonian was an administrator for a U.S.-funded maternal and children's health program, but was charged with trying to undermine the Iranian government; she was reportedly pressured to testify against herself.

U.S. officials have called charges against both Ms. Harotonian and Ms. Saberi "baseless" and have called on Iran to release them.

According to media reports this week, the case against Ms. Saberi was based mostly on a confidential document she reportedly copied while working for an Iranian government entity several years earlier. Ms. Saberi was initially sentenced to eight years in prison before being released on parole.

Members of Congress react to administration’s Armenia aid request

Reps. Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.) and Mark Kirk (R.-Ill.), co-chairs of the congressional Armenian caucus, said they "will work to restore funding for Armenia." Their statement came a day after the Obama administration requested aid levels that were lower than funds appropriated in Fiscal Year 2009.

"We are confident that as the [Fiscal Year 2010] appropriations process moves forward, Congress will increase economic assistance to Armenia beyond the Administration's budget proposal and will provide aid to Nagorno Karabakh," Reps. Pallone and Kirk said on May 8.

Also reacting to the request was Rep. Brad Sherman (D.-Calif.) who briefly raised the issue during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing with Deputy Secretary of State Jack Lew on May 13. Mr. Sherman mentioned the issue along with several others, asking Mr. Lew for a written response.

Mr. Sherman also requested a comment on the issue from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her April 22 testimony at the committee; neither response was available as of press time.

In a March 24 letter to the House Foreign Operations Subcommittee leadership, Reps. Pallone and Kirk requested an increase in U.S. aid to Armenia (see table below). The subcommittee will review the administration's proposal in the next few months.

U.S. aid programs
(in millions of dollars)

FY2010 proposals FY2009 proposals and appropriated levels
Obama & Caucus requested Bush & Caucus requested Congress appropriated

Armenia 30.0 70 24.0 70 48.0
Karabakh N/A 10 N/A 10 8.0
Armenia
military 3.5 5 3.3 5 3.5
Azerbaijan
military 4.9 0 3.9 0 3.5

Ambassador to Armenia reacts to critics of aid request

In what is likely to form the basis for the State Department's response to critics of the administration's request, the U.S. Embassy in Armenia issued a letter from Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch that reiterated America's commitment to its "longstanding partnership with Armenia."

In her letter Ms. Yovanovitch noted that President Barack Obama's request was an increase over President George W. Bush's request last year, and that "actual levels of assistance" are determined by the U.S. Congress, which has traditionally revised administration requests upward.

"With respect to funding for Nagorno­-Karabakh, there has never been a budget request sent to Congress because there is no mechanism for doing so in the budget process," the ambassador noted. "Rather, the humanitarian assistance provided to Nagorno-Karabakh is worked out afterwards, during the budget negotiation between Congress and the Administration."

Ms. Yovanovitch also noted that a somewhat larger request for military aid to Azerbaijan "is linked to U.S. priorities in peacekeeping and maritime security on the Caspian Sea" and that "they do not adversely affect the military balance" between Armenia and Azerbaijan as is stipulated by U.S. law.

The Embassy noted that nearly $2 billion in U.S. aid has been provided to Armenia since the 1988 earthquake; that amounted included $68.9 million provided in 2008.

U.S., Armenian officials hold regular consultations

In a meeting of the U.S.-Armenia Economic Task Force (USATF) on May 13, delegations led by Economics Minister Nerses Yeritsian and State Department coordinator for aid to Eurasia Dan Rosenblum "discussed advancing economic and market reforms, strengthening rule of law, and other bilateral issues," the U.S. Embassy in Armenia said in a statement.

The discussions are intended to produce an "action plan [that] helps in tailoring assistance to Armenia coming from the United States Government."

Established nine years ago, USATF held its previous meeting in Washington last November.

Azerbaijan voted out of UN body

Hungary will replace Azerbaijan at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), having won more international support for one of two vacant seats on the council. The other seat went to Russia, which like Azerbaijan was first elected to the body in 2006. In the May 12 vote, Russia won the support of 146 countries, Hungary of 131 countries and Azerbaijan of 84 countries.

"The election of Hungary, especially over Azerbaijan, a country with a poor human rights record but with considerable influence thanks to its energy resources, is something to applaud," Vladimir Shkolnikov of the U.S.-based rights group Freedom House said in a statement. For UNHRC it "is a small but important step in the right direction," he added.

Also winning a three-year term on the council was the United States, backed by 167 of the total of 192 UN members. The United States was previously ousted from UNHRC's predecessor entity - the Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR) - in 2001. (Armenia was elected to UNCHR twice - in 2002 and 2005.)

The UN human rights body was shunned by the Bush Administration for criticizing Israel and for including countries like Cuba. But the Obama administration argues that U.S. concerns would be better served through membership in the council.

The Geneva-based 47-member UNHRC makes recommendations to the General Assembly on human rights issues.

Discussion of Karabakh talks on Iran's Press TV

Featuring Vafa Gulizade, Karen Nazarian, Atilla Yesilada and your own Emil Sanamyan.

Arm. caucus on U.S. aid/policy, Rustamian letter, Davutoglu visit, Obama msg. to Iran, EU on EE

First published in March 28, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Armenian Caucus co-chairs make aid, policy proposals

The United States should increase engagement with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and tighten existing restrictions on ties with Azerbaijan, Reps. Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.) and Mark Kirk (R.-Ill.), co-chairs of the Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues recommended in a March 24 letter to colleagues.

The letter, currently open for additional co-signers, is addressed to Reps. Nita Lowey (D.-N.Y., pictured) and Kay Granger (R.-Tex.), respectively chair and ranking member of the House Foreign Appropriations Subcommittee which sets foreign-aid levels at the early stages of the annual budget process.

Specifically, the Pallone-Kirk letter argued for an increase in U.S. economic aid to Armenia from Fiscal Year 2009 level of $48mln to $70mln; military aid, from $3.5mln to $5mln; and aid to Nagorno-Karabakh from $8mln to $10mln.

The letter also recommends report language that would lift any "official or unofficial restrictions" on formal U.S. engagement with Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as support for confidence-building measures to help resolve the Karabakh conflict.

Additionally, citing Azerbaijan's continued war threats, the letter recommends an additional condition on presidential authority to waive existing restrictions on U.S. aid to Azerbaijan.

The new language would require the executive branch to certify that "in the last fiscal year, Azerbaijan has not taken hostile action, either through military force or incitement, including but not limited to threatening pronouncements by government officials, toward Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh."

Should that condition be met, the co-chairs suggest equal levels of military aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan, or the so-called "parity" approach to continue.

Last summer, the effort by Mr. Kirk's predecessor as co-chair, former Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R.-Mich.) to zero out U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan outright failed narrowly in the subcommittee vote.

Armenian politician weighs in on Genocide resolution

In a rare letter to a congressional colleague, a senior member of the Armenian parliament wrote to express "complete support" for the House Resolution 252 affirming the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide, introduced earlier this month.

Armen Rustamian, chair of the National Assembly's Foreign Relations Committee and senior member of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)'s leadership, addressed the March 19 letter to his U.S. counterpart, Rep. Howard Berman (D.-Calif.), who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which should next consider the resolution. The letter was circulated by the ARF's press service.

While pursuing universal recognition and condemnation of the Armenian Genocide is Armenia's official policy, senior Armenian officials have rarely spoken out on specific proposals before the U.S. Congress. On the other hand, Turkish leaders have frequently voiced their opposition to the resolution.

Last week, a spokesperson for the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) reiterated her support for genocide recognition but added that congressional action on resolution was not imminent. The spokesperson, Brendan Day, told Reuters on March 19 that "no one's talking about a vote any time soon."

Senior Turkish official in Washington ahead of Obama’s visit

Ahmet Davutoglu, senior foreign policy advisor to Turkish leaders, last week met with U.S. officials to discuss President Barack Obama's visit to Ankara and Istanbul on April 5-7.

After meeting Mr. Obama's national security advisor Jim Jones on March 19, Mr. Davutoglu told Reuters that he could not say what the Obama administration's intentions were with regard to the president's pre-election pledge to recognize the Armenian Genocide, adding only that the two officials "went through all these issues in a very friendly and cooperative manner."

Administration officials have so far refused to address the Armenian Genocide issue directly.

Mr. Davutoglu suggested that U.S.-Turkey relations were "in a historic era where our policies are almost identical on all issues," Associated Press reported him as saying on March 19. He added that the Armenian Genocide issue "could be debated from a historical perspective, but should not hijack the strategic vision of Turkish-American relations or Turkish-Armenian relations."

With regard to Armenia-Turkey talks, Mr. Davutoglu said that "there is a process, and everyone should strengthen this process and not try to weaken it," the Washington Post cited him as saying. "We hope that the discussions on the Armenian issue [in U.S.] do not affect this process in a negative sense."

During a visit to Washington shortly before the presidential elections, Mr. Davutoglu insisted that Turkey wants "to have best relations with Armenia," and "good relations" with Armenians in the diaspora.

Obama offers goodwill message to Iran

President Barack Obama stressed U.S. commitment to diplomacy and dialogue with the Iranian government in a March 20 video message dedicated to Nowruz, the Iranian new year.

"I want you, the people and leaders of Iran, to understand the future that we seek," Mr. Obama said in the message. "It's a future with greater opportunities for partnership and commerce. It's a future where the old divisions are overcome, where you and all of your neighbors and the wider world can live in greater security and greater peace."

Mr. Obama's comments reflected a campaign pledge to reach out to Iran. But the message also referred to "terror" and "arms," reflecting longstanding U.S. charges that Iran supports terrorist groups and seeks to develop nuclear weapons.

A spokesperson for Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad welcomed "the wish of the president of the United States to put away past differences." But in an interview with Reuters, the spokesperson, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, put the blame for tensions on the U.S. "The only source of instability in the region is the American military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan," he claimed.

In what is seen as a step toward U.S.-Iranian dialogue, Iranian officials said this week they would attend a United Nations conference on Afghanistan to be held in The Hague on March 31. The conference was proposed by the United States earlier this month, as the Obama administration has made stabilization of Afghanistan its immediate foreign policy priority.

European Union leaders agree on “Eastern” policy

Member countries of the European Union have formally approved two policy initiatives involving their eastern neighbors.

During a March 19-20 summit in Brussels, European leaders agreed to set aside 600 million euros for a multiyear program dubbed "Eastern Partnership," which will involve Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, RFE/RL reported.

The program is viewed as a counterweight to Russia's increasingly dominant posture in the former Soviet space since the war in Georgia last year. While promising increased cooperation up to free trade agreements and visa-free travel, it makes no mention of potential European Union expansion into the area.

In a related development, the European Union agreed to spend 200 million euros to facilitate the Nabucco gas pipeline from the Caspian region to Europe, bypassing Russia. Europeans hope the new route will lessen their dependence on Russia as supplier of natural gas.

An Armenian is imprisoned in Iranian crackdown

Silva Harotonian’s family blames “tragic misunderstanding”
by Emil Sanamyan

Washington, - An Iranian-Armenian employee of the U.S. government-funded International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX) has been detained in Iran for more than seven months and was recently sentenced to a three-year prison term, her employer and family said in statements last week.

Silva Harotonian, 34, an Iranian citizen, was arrested on June 26, 2008, while on a business trip to Tehran for IREX's Maternal and Child Health Education and Exchange Program (MCHEEP). Ms. Harotonian was an administrative officer for the program, launched in 2007, and the only IREX staff member on the ground in Iran at the time.

According to a statement by IREX president Robert Pearson, her "role as a program administrator involved explaining logistics for the two-week exchange program, translating documents between Armenian and English into Farsi, and answering telephone inquiries."

On January 19, Ms. Harotonian was sentenced to three years in prison on what IREX described as "erroneous" charges of plotting against the Iranian government; she is currently appealing the ruling.

Keith Mellnick, a spokesperson for IREX in Washington, told the Armenian Reporter that his organization was "working with the family to open channels to the Iranian government to free Silva Harotonian" and were seeking public support for the same.

Forced confession

The Iranian-Armenian's arrest was first revealed on January 21 by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran (ICHRI); she was then identified as Sylvia Hartounian.

Citing its sources inside Tehran's Evin prison, the group reported that following ten days of solitary confinement, Ms. Harotonian was forced under duress to claim she was part of a "plot" against the Islamic Republic. That report was picked up by the Los Angeles Times.

In a report on January 19, Press TV, Iran's English-language television station, cited an unnamed Iranian intelligence official as saying that four individuals were sentenced on charges of "organizing anti-government public rallies and creating ethnic division in the country."

The channel further cited Tehran's Islamic Revolution Court as concluding in its verdict that the four Iranian citizens "confessed to trying to distance the people of Iran from the government and introduce the United States as their sole savior."

Hadi Ghaemi, a New York-based spokesperson for ICHRI, said Ms. Harotonian was likely to be one of the four individuals being referred to by Press TV. The other two are brothers Arash and Kamiar Alaei, both Iranian medical doctors who focus on HIV/AIDS; the fourth is so far unnamed, but is believed to be an Iranian documentary filmmaker, although it is unclear whether their cases are connected.

It is normal practice in Iran for the government and judiciary not to reveal to the public the names of those detained, Mr. Ghaemi told the Armenian Reporter. The families in turn tend not to publicize the names of the detained, hoping to quietly win government leniency.

IREX and Ms. Harotonian's family went public about the arrest only after initial reports by human rights activists.

Family appeal

FreeSilva.org, a website launched on behalf of Ms. Harotonian's family in Los Angeles on February 20, seeks to gather public support "in respectfully urging the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran to grant the release of our loved one."

"Our family has always appreciated the Iranian government's efforts to ensure the safety, religious freedom and prosperity of its Armenian community," the family said in a statement. "We believe releasing Silva would further demonstrate Iran's solidarity with its Armenian population and generosity toward our loyal Christian minority."

After studying Armenian literature at the Azad University in Tehran, Ms. Harotonian taught at an Armenian school and held several administrative jobs, including at the Armenian Prelacy in Tehran. Her family described her as a "patriot" of Iran and a loyal citizen, pointing to the formal recognition she received for her role in celebrations marking the Islamic Revolution anniversary in 2004.

Ms. Harotonian recently moved to Yerevan, where she began working for the IREX program that supports health practitioners in Iran.

On the website, the family described Ms. Harotonian's arrest and imprisonment as a "tragic misunderstanding." They argued instead that "granting her a release after serving time in prison would recognize both the need for law-abiding behavior and the value of forgiveness of innocent mistakes."

Caught in a stand-off

Although United States entities are not legally allowed to operate in Iran, U.S. government-funded organizations like IREX and others have worked with Iran's nongovernmental groups.

At the same time, the Bush administration publicly sought to undermine Iran's government, and there were credible reports of U.S.-funded covert operations underway.

As a result, all U.S.-funded projects in Iran - even those dealing with science, education, and healthcare - have come under official suspicion, with a number of individuals - mostly Iranian citizens -held and imprisoned by the government.

Mr. Ghaemi estimated about 400 individuals are currently being held in Iran on politically motivated charges. In a recent case, a scholar of Iranian descent and U.S. citizen, Haleh Esfandiari, was released after months of detention in 2007.

While President Barack Obama has called for an open dialogue with Iran and for its leaders to "unclench their fists," no progress toward normalization of relations has occurred so far.

Armenia and U.S. appointments, Obama foreign travel, Manas base closure, Iranian sputnik

First published in February 7, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

New appointments: Karabakh Representative to U.S., Armenia’s consul in LA

Robert Avetisyan has been appointed the representative of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) in the United States, taking over from Vardan Barseghian, the press service of the president of the republic reported this week.

Mr. Barseghian, who served in the United States since 1999, has returned to Stepanakert to become Karabakh's deputy foreign minister. Mr. Avetisyan has been counselor at NKR's Office in the United States since the beginning of 2008. From 1999 on, Mr. Avetisyan has worked for the Foreign Ministry in Stepanakert.

Sources familiar with the rotation told the Armenian Reporter last week that Grigor Hovhannisyan will replace Armen Liloyan as Armenia's consul general in Los Angeles. Since 2006, Mr. Hovhannisyan has been executive director of the Shushi Revival Fund, chaired by the mayor of Yerevan.

Power, McFaul to join Obama White House

Samantha Power, a Harvard professor and a strong supporter of U.S. recognition of the Armenian Genocide, will serve as senior director for multilateral affairs in President Barack Obama's National Security Council, The Associated Press reported on January 29.

Ms. Power, 38, was a senior advisor to the Obama campaign and member of the president-elect's transition team. In her new capacity she will work on U.S. policy initiatives in international organizations on transnational issues such as human rights. Ms. Power was a recipient of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA)'s Freedom Award last September.

Stanford professor and Russia expert Michael McFaul has been appointed senior director for Russia (and presumably other former Soviet republics) in the National Security Council, the National Interest online reported on February 4.

In congressional testimony last September, Mr. McFaul, 44, urged a policy of "re-building" democracy in Russia. Prior to the Russian-Georgian war, Mr. McFaul told Russia Today TV that Ukraine's and Georgia's membership in NATO was "inevitable," even though it could take decades.

Obama administration announces foreign travel plans

Heeding a longstanding tradition, Barack Obama will make his first foreign trip as president to Canada, on February 19, a month after inauguration, spokesperson Robert Gibbs said last week. Other countries he is expected to visit in the first two to three months of his presidency are Mexico, the United Kingdom (for the April summit on the financial crisis) and a yet-to-be-determined Muslim country.

But Mr. Obama's immediate priorities are said to be domestic.

Vice President Joe Biden is set to play a prominent role on foreign policy matters in the meantime. He will be in Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference, February 6-8, focusing on Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan.

Mr. Biden is expected to deliver a keynote address outlining the new administration's foreign policy priorities. He may also use the opportunity to talk with Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov as well as the president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai and other foreign leaders. Iran will be represented by Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.

According to an Armenian Reporter source, Armenia's President Serge Sargsian will also attend the Munich conference, while Azerbaijan and Georgia are sending foreign ministers.

It is so far unclear to which country Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit first, but with other top officials crowding Europe and the Middle East, media reports suggest a trip to East Asia.

U.S. squeezed by Russia in Central Asia, by Iran in space

Russia offered massive financial incentives to Kyrgyzstan, apparently on the condition that its government close a U.S. air base on its territory, news agencies reported. The base, which takes up a portion of the Kyrgyz capital's main airport, has been there since December 2001, serving to facilitate the delivery of supplies to U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure of the base during a visit to Moscow this week. Concurrently, Russia announced a $2 billion aid and loans package to the country.

Senior U.S. officials were apparently assured as recently as two weeks ago that the base would stay open, and are still hoping to use the facility for the anticipated "surge" in U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

At the same time Russian and Kyrgyz leaders promised to continue to cooperate with the United States on stabilizing Afghanistan, which has seen an increase in insurgent attacks in the last few years.

Meanwhile, Iran marked the 30th anniversary of its Islamic revolution by launching its first domestically built satellite into space. U.S. officials expressed concern over the launch, since the same technology can also be used to deliver missiles.

According to RFE/RL, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran's growing presence in space is aimed at "expanding monotheism, peace, and justice." Iran has previously launched its satellites through the Russian and Chinese space programs.

Obama, Islam, Turkey, Jews, Eurogas, etc.

This was first published in January 31, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama seeks dialogue with Iran, Muslim world

"As I said during my inauguration speech, if countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us," President Barack Obama said in his first White House interview, granted to Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya television on January 27.

In response, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would "welcome" a change in U.S. policy. But, as BBC News reported, that statement came after the Iranian president, who is facing re-election this June, issued a tirade of grievances against the United States.

Earlier, in an unusual gesture, Mr. Ahmadinejad sent a letter congratulating Mr. Obama on his election. The White House is reported to be currently drafting a letter to Iran. According to the Daily Telegraph "diplomatic drafts [of the letter] give assurances that Washington does not want to overthrow the Islamic regime, but merely seek a change in its behavior."

In the interview this week, Mr. Obama stressed the importance of dialogue. "It [is] important for us to be willing to talk to Iran, to express very clearly where our differences are, but where there are potential avenues for progress," he said.

By contrast, the former president, George W. Bush, refused to talk to Iran and pushed for tougher sanctions over Iran's enrichment of uranium.

In October 2007, both President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney issued dire warnings. Mr. Cheney said that the United States "will not allow" Iran to have a nuclear weapon, while Mr. Bush spoke of possible "World War III" should Iran acquire a nuclear weapon.

But in December 2007, a U.S. intelligence assessment determined that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Although members of the U.S. and Israeli political establishments disagreed with the assessment, the Bush Administration began to tone down its Iran rhetoric.

Notwithstanding the Obama administration's emphasis on dialogue, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hinted recently that a military option remains on the table. In her January 13 Senate testimony, she said the new administration was "not taking any option off the table at all . . . to try to prevent" Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

(As a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton had threatened to "obliterate" Iran if it used nuclear weapons against Israel and had criticized her ultimately victorious rival's readiness to talk to Iran without preconditions.)

Mr. Obama, while reiterating the importance of Israel's security to the United States, said he wanted to convince the Muslims "that Americans are not your enemy."

Among steps designed to reach that goal, the Obama Administration is closing the Guantánamo Bay detention center, making preparations for pulling out of Iraq, and pledging a renewed focus on settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the wake of Israel's devastating attack on Gaza.

U.S. envoy George Mitchell will be visiting Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The Turkish media noted that the visit will be the first high-level U.S.-Turkish contact since the new president's inauguration.

Separately, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a message to the president inviting to him to attend the summit dubbed the Alliance of Civilizations planned for April 6-7 in Istanbul.

That initiative was first launched by Turkey and Spain under the United Nations umbrella in 2007. Its first forum in January 2008 did not include U.S. officials.

World optimistic about Obama presidency

A majority of more than 17,000 respondents queried in 17 countries around the world believe that their nations will enjoy better ties with the United States under President Barack Obama, according to a BBC World Service study released on January 20.

Fifty-one percent of Turks and 47 percent of Russians - groups that have in recent years been especially suspicious of U.S. intentions - were optimistic about positive change under President Obama.

Respondents were also asked about what they thought should be the top priority of the new U.S. administration, with most identifying "dealing with global financial crisis." See www.worldpublicopinion.org.

Jewish Americans “gravely distressed” with Turkey

Leaders of five Jewish-American organizations expressed profound concern over what they described as "the current wave of anti-Semitic manifestations in Turkey."

In a January 21 letter addressed to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and made available to the Armenian Reporter, the letter's co-signers said their "Jewish friends in Turkey feel besieged and threatened" and called on Turkey to address "these disturbing developments."

They also disagreed with Turkey's harsh criticism of Israel's recent campaign in Gaza.

Mr. Erdogan called the Israeli operation a "crime against humanity" and an "evil" deed and went so far as to suggest that Israel should be barred from the United Nations. There have been numerous public demonstrations in Turkey in solidarity with Gaza.

On January 29, Mr. Erdogan joined Israel's President Shimon Peres at the Global Economic Forum in Switzerland and accused Israel of "barbarism" in Gaza, BBC News reported. The Turkish premier left the panel after the moderator, David Ignatius of the Washington Post, tried to cut off his microphone.

"We're not convinced that Turkey has earned the right to lecture Israelis about human rights," the Jerusalem Post had written in an editorial on January 5, citing Turkey's decades-long campaign against Kurdish rebels that has left tens of thousands of people dead.

The five co-signers of the letter are senior executives from the American Jewish Committee, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), B'nai B'rith International, Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish American Organizations, and Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.

The organizations have in the past supported Turkey's agenda in Washington, including opposition to congressional resolutions on the Armenian Genocide. But following recent exchanges, Turkish daily Milliyet cited Jewish-American leaders as saying they are not inclined do so any more.

U.S. study: China, India, Russia to dominate headlines in next decade

U.S. global influence will diminish and that of China and India will increase in the next decade and half, according to a study prepared by the National Intelligence Council, an in-house think tank of the U.S. intelligence community.

Predictions made in the report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," released last November, see the world moving away from post-Cold War dominance by the United States to what political scientists have described as a multipolar or nonpolar world.

The report also underscores importance of Russia and Iran as major exporters of fossil energy, particularly natural gas, and in case of Russia also coal.

While none of the Caucasus states was mentioned individually, the Caucasus region was mentioned four times (three times as a source of conflicts and once as an energy corridor) and Caspian energy was mentioned twice.

Below is a table showing the number of times sixteen select countries are mentioned in the report, along with size of their economies.

Country Number of mentions 2007 GDP (in bn. USD)

China 190 3280

India 138 1100

Russia 138 1290

Iran 84 285

Japan 57 4381

Pakistan 25 144

Afghanistan 22 10

Iraq 20 55

Korea (N. & S.) 20 1000+

Israel 15 164

Turkey 15 659

Saudi Arabia 8 382

United Kingdom 6 2804

Germany 6 3320

France 4 2594

Ukraine 4 142

See report at http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

European Union promises funding for Russia gas bypass

The European Commission has proposed $330 million in initial funding for what is known as the Nabucco gas pipeline. The proposal unveiled at a European Union (EU) conference held in Hungary on January 28 would need member-states' approval to go ahead. It comes shortly after the Russian-Ukrainian spat over gas supplies that left several Balkan countries without heating earlier this month.

In theory, the Nabucco pipeline would bring natural gas from Central Asia to Turkey and then on to Europe, substantially eroding Russia's current dominance in Europe's natural gas market. (The pipeline's unusual name is short for Nebuchadnezzar, the Babylonian king who according to the Old Testament freed the Jews and rebuilt their temple; there is also an opera of the same name.)

The pipeline, with an estimated price tag of more than $10 billion, has been slow to take off since it is still unclear where the gas would come from.

The United States and some of its European allies legally restrict energy cooperation with Iran, which is the second-largest gas producer after Russia and is the only real alternative.

Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which have signed off as the only suppliers so far, are unlikely to be able to supply the needed 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year; Iraq and Egypt have also been courted as potential suppliers.

At the same time, Germany and Turkey and others are supporting the North and South stream pipelines that would bring Russian gas to them via the Baltic and Black Seas, respectively.

Officials seeking to reduce Europe's reliance on Russia have called the twin pipelines a "direct threat to Nabucco project," according to RFE/RL.

Russia expands Georgia sanctions

Russian government could slap sanctions on countries and companies supplying the Georgian military, according to President Dmitry Medvedev's executive order issued on January 19.

The order "On measures banning supplies of military and dual use technology to Georgia" threatens curtailment of military cooperation between Russia and countries providing Georgia with military support and would be in effect through the end of 2011.

Prior to the war in South Ossetia last August, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey, and the United States were the largest suppliers of weapons systems to Georgia. Israel reportedly halted military cooperation with Georgia shortly before the war.

In Turkey: Dink murder trial, apology petition, and curriculum changes

The trial of the accused assassins of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink rambled on in Istanbul this week, as his friends marked the second anniversary of his death.

The Paris-based Reporters without Borders issued a statement on January 28 urging the court to keep trial proceedings "dignified," noting that one of the accused and his lawyer had repeatedly used ethnic slurs against the late Mr. Dink and his family members in attendance.

The Economist meanwhile reported that prosecutors were probing a connection between the Dink murder and the so-called Ergenekon case of alleged coup plotters. Dozens more arrests were made in the Ergenekon case on January 22.

Prosecutors refused to file "insulting Turkishness" charges against intellectuals who initiated a public apology to Armenians over the Turkey's "insensitivity" to the memory of the "Great Catastrophe," The Associated Press reported on January 26.

More than 28,000 individuals signed on to the online petition launched last December on a web site, www.ozurdiliyoruz.com, which repeatedly has been hacked, presumably by its opponents. Meanwhile, a rival site "I do not apologize" popped up and claimed the support of more than 65,000 Turks.

A state entity known as "Coordination Board to Fight Baseless Genocide Claims" decided to amend the Turkish school curriculum to remove terms like "baseless" and "so-called Armenian genocide" from eighth-grade textbooks. (The board's own name was not reported to have been changed.)

According to the newspaper Milliyet, Turkish children will now study "Turkish-Armenian relations, 1915 events, and related Armenian allegations."

Similarly in July 2007, the Turkish government reportedly instructed state officials not to refer to the term "so called Armenian genocide allegations," UlulasKanal.com reported at the time. The recommended usage was "1915 incidents" or "Armenian allegations regarding incidents in 1915," shifting official rhetoric from straightforward denial to a more ambiguous wording.

U.S. sees FSU role in Afghan supplies; NATO on Russia, Ukraine, Georgia; Azeris, Turks seek Turkmen links

First published in December 6, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. considers Caucasus to Central Asia route to supply Afghanistan forces

Gen. Duncan McNabb. . AP.

With an increasingly unstable Pakistan, the United States is looking into the possibility of supplying its forces in Afghanistan via the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Washington Post reported on November 18 citing Pentagon documents. Since President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to increase the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, the need for additional supplies may add to existing concerns.

There are currently 67,000 allied soldiers in Afghanistan, of whom about half are Americans. According to the Post, 75 percent of all supplies to these forces, such as food, gas, and military equipment, currently come from Pakistan or through its port of Karachi, from where they are taken by truck into Afghanistan. Truckers have come under increased Taliban attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A spokesperson for U.S. forces in Afghanistan denied the attacks have affected military operations. Nevertheless, the Defense Department dispatched head of the U.S. Transportation Command Gen. Duncan McNabb to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in mid-November.

Since 2001, the U.S. has used the Caucasus to Central Asia air corridor, but not the land route which would have to start at one of Georgian ports then cross Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, and one or more Central Asian states before reaching Afghanistan. Shipments would be conducted by a contractor who would need to hire local security.

Pentagon documents cited by the Post suggest that the U.S. already secured Georgia's approval for what it called a "northern route," and was in talks with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The Pentagon said it did "not expect transit agreements with Iran or Uzbekistan."

But according to a Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) analysis published on November 19, the United States will have to continue to rely on Pakistan for most of its supplies, with a much longer and more complicated Central Asian route potentially serving as a reserve option. In addition to the logistics of that route, the United States would have to take into account Russia's increasingly prominent role in Central Asia.

According to the Post, this year Russia agreed to facilitate nonlethal supplies to pass from Europe through its rail system into Central Asia and from there by truck to Afghanistan.

NATO: contacts to resume with Russia; no new decisions on Georgia, Ukraine

de Hoop Scheffer talking to Tkeshelashvili

Meeting on December 2, NATO foreign ministers agreed to resume some of of the alliance's contacts with Russia, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported. The relations were suspended three months earlier over Russian military intervention in Georgia.

The United States has pushed for a tougher international reaction to Russian treatment of America's close ally, leading to temporary suspension of NATO and European Union contacts with Russia.

But last month, shortly after the U.S. presidential elections, the EU resumed partnership talks with Russia over Georgian objections. (See this page in the November 15 Armenian Reporter.)

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said this week that NATO's "graduated re-engagement" with Russia does not mean that the alliance agrees with Russian policies in Georgia.

In another anticipated decision, NATO officials again declined to grant Georgia and Ukraine membership action plans (MAPs). At the same time, they reiterated the NATO's Bucharest summit statement that promised eventual membership to both countries last April, and promised to continue to assist Ukarine and Georgia to achieve "NATO standards."

Reacting to these developments, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on November 28 that he was "pleased that reason has prevailed, unfortunately only at the end of the current U.S. administration. But this at least ascertains the current state of affairs."

Mr. Medvedev made his comments in Cuba where he arrived from Venezuela, whose forces just held joint exercises with a Russian naval group currently in the Carribean.

Russia has strongly opposed NATO's expansion into Ukraine and Georgia.

As Eugeniusz Smolar of the Polish Center for International Relations told RFE/RL, "The Georgia war, in the opinion of most NATO members, is not only an example of Russian aggression - which it was. It was also an example of the irresponsible behavior of the present Georgian leadership."

Last week the Polish security service blamed Georgian leaders for endangering the life of the Polish president on a visit to Georgia when his convoy abruptly turned toward Ossetian territory, causing a shooting incident. Poland has been one of Georgia's staunchest supporters in NATO and the EU.

"In this context, many NATO members - and not just Germany and France - say that they are not politically ready to defend a country that is behaving in such a manner," Mr. Smolar said.

But proponents of NATO expansion suggest the incoming administration of Barack Obama could help mend ties between the United States and Europe, probably at Russia's expense.

"If you imagine in three years' time, if we have a stable government in Ukraine, a different Georgian leadership, a Russia that is preoccupied with its own problems, and a more popular American administration, NATO expansion might not look so crazy," Edward Lucas, deputy editor at the Economist, told RFE/RL.

Azerbaijan, Turkey seek Turkmenistan gas, ferry link up

Ilham Aliyev wearing national garb with Turkmen prez. looking on from portrait.
The presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey were in Turkmenistan last week in another effort to encourage routing of that country's natural gas exports via the Caspian, the Caucasus, and Turkey. The United States has long supported the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, having in August 2007 allocated funds to study its feasibility.

But Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have had difficult relations since independence, with their past dictators Heydar Aliyev and Saparmurad Niyazov arguing over offshore Caspian oil fields.

In recent years, while disagreements about the maritime border have not been resolved, there have been more contacts. Last May Mr. Niyazov's successor, Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, went to Baku for talks with Ilham Aliyev.

On November 28-29 Mr. Aliyev paid a return visit, with Turkish president Abdullah Gül arriving apparently to mediate the dispute between the two "brotherly" nations.

The three leaders agreed to reestablish a ferry link between Baku and Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk), suspended since the collapse of the USSR, and to continue talks on the disputed Kapaz/Sardar oil field in the middle of the Caspian and on a potential trans-Caspian gas pipeline.

In December 2007 Turkmenistan hosted the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan and agreed to build a new pipeline to export additional natural gas through their territories. The Central Asian nation is believed to have fourth largest gas resources in the world behind Russia, Iran, and Qatar.

Briefly: Obama on Genocide; U.S. on Central Asia oil and nuclear energy coop. with Russia; Turkish MIC

First published in June 21, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Yelena Osipova and Emil Sanamyan

Obama reiterates support for Genocide affirmation

“I share your view that the United States must recognize the events of 1915 to 1923, carried out by the Ottoman Empire, as genocide,” Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said in a June 16 letter to Kenneth Hachikian, chairperson of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), the organization reported the next day.

Sen. Obama issued a similar statement on April 24 saying that “it is imperative that we recognize the horrific acts carried out against the Armenian people as genocide.”

And in a January 19 statement “On the Importance of U.S.-Armenia Relations” Sen. Obama pledged that, if elected president, he would recognize the U.S. record on Armenian Genocide, support Armenia’s development, and work to achieve “a lasting and durable settlement” in Karabakh “that is agreeable to all parties, and based upon America’s founding commitment to the principles of democracy and self determination.”

The latest communication from Sen. Obama came in response to the ANCA’s letter listing Armenian-American concerns ahead of the June 19 Senate confirmation hearing for the Bush administration’s nominee for ambassador to Armenia (see coverage elsewhere in this issue).

“The Bush Administration’s refusal to [recognize the Genocide] is inexcusable, and I will continue to speak out in an effort to move the Administration to change its position,” Sen. Obama wrote in his letter.

Meanwhile, the Turkish media, including the Turkish Daily News on June 6, have reported on Turkey’s efforts to foster relations with Sen. Obama’s campaign team in part to change his position on Armenian issues.

Speaking at the Claremont Graduate University on June 10, Turkish Consul General in Los Angeles Hakan Tekin noted “that the last three presidents of the United States, they also had similar statements during the elections,” but did not deliver on their pledges when elected, Peter Musurlian of Globalist Films reported via www.youtube.com on June 16.

At the same time, Mr. Tekin suggested that Turkish public may already favor Sen. Obama over his Republican candidate Sen. John McCain who has consistently refused to promise to change the U.S. policy on the Armenian Genocide.

Senate Committee urges U.S. to keep focus on Central Asia energy

Sen. Richard Lugar (R.-Ind.) reiterated his concerns over Russian influence on energy supplies to Europe in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on June 12. Sen. Lugar, who serves as the committee’s ranking member (most senior Republican), touted Azerbaijan as an example to Central Asian states.

“Central Asian nations need only look across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan to gain a sense of the political benefits of maintaining a second option for oil and gas exports,” he said in his opening speech in reference to the pipelines now linking Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey and thus bypassing Russia.

The United States has since sought to link up oil from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan across the Caspian to Azerbaijan to be then transported to Turkey and Europe.

Sen. Lugar also urged the trans-Atlantic community not to take “progress in Georgia and Azerbaijan for granted” and continue to bolster ties with them. He welcomed the recent appointment of the U.S. envoy to the European Union to also serve as envoy on Caspian energy; both he and Committee chair Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) have insisted on that since last year.

“Ambassador C. Boyden Gray’s appointment lends significant weight to this initiative by virtue of his close relationship with President Bush,” Sen. Lugar said.

Mr. Gray, as well as the State Department’s two deputy assistant secretaries Steve Mann and Matt Bryza, visited Baku earlier this month to discuss energy cooperation, Trend news agency reported on June 3.

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a senior advisor in Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and national security advisor in Carter Administration, shared many of Sen. Lugar’s concerns about Russia.

“We should be more active in negotiating particularly with those non-Russian suppliers who in the long run want to be accessible for the world, but in the short run are squeezed [by Russia],” he said, adding however that “long-term interdependence between the West and Russia” can have a mutually beneficial effect.

U.S.-Russia nuclear energy deal discussed in Congress

Democrats in Congress have questioned the administration’s trust in Russia and its willingness to set the U.S.-Russia Civil Nuclear Agreement into force. President George W. Bush submitted the agreement to Congress on May 13 for review.

The deal is part of U.S. efforts to win international support for U.S.- championed sanctions against Iran while facilitating U.S. companies in their efforts to secure new nuclear power plant construction contracts internationally. A similar deal on nuclear energy with Turkey came into force on June 2 following congressional approval earlier this year. (See this page in the February 9, 2008 Armenian Reporter.)

At the June 12 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, concerns focused on Russia’s unwillingness to back the United States in imposing harsher sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

President Bush made the issue of Iran sanctions the focus of his tour of Europe that ended this week.

“We want to hear whether, [the Russia-Iran nuclear weapons-related] cooperation has ceased – and what assurances, if any, Moscow has given our government,” committee chair Howard Berman (D.-Calif.) asked Acting Undersecretary of State John Rood.

Mr. Rood responded that assurances received were sufficient to “mitigate” U.S. concerns and that this agreement would establish a legal basis for a mutually beneficial nuclear cooperation internationally.

“In [certain areas] Russia possesses experience and facilities not widely available in the U.S.,” he said.

Having Russia as the supplier of Iranian nuclear fuel will decrease the likelihood of Iran enriching its own uranium, Mr. Rood told the hearing. He added he has serious suspicions about Iran himself, but said the United States needs Russian cooperation to promote global non-proliferation.

Meantime, Rep. Edward Markey (D.-Mass.) disapproved of President Bush’s recent promise to also send nuclear equipment to Saudi Arabia.

“This is a very dangerous policy and you have to have high standards [for countries you deal with] if you don’t want to see [a spread of nuclear weapons in the] Middle
East,” he said.

Turkey seeks selfsufficiency in weapons production

Turkey is working to achieve selfsufficiency in arms and aspires to become a global arms supplier, according to a study made public at Washington’s Jamestown Foundation on June 17.

The study’s author, Dr. Andrew McGregor said that Turkey’s annual arms exports would reach $1.5 billion in the next three years and that the country is aggressively seeking to increase its market share. The author noted frequent disputes between Turkey and its traditional weapons supplier – the United States – as one important motive for boosting domestic production.

Turkey is also modernizing its own armed forces, which is already one of the world’s largest, to better address asymmetric threats posed by Kurdish insurgents, and “enable Turkey to remain a regional power capable of independent action outside its borders if it feels its national integrity is threatened,” said Mr. McGregor.

See http://www.jamestown.org for the full report.