Erdogan, Saakashvili at UN; More U.S. radar in Caucasus talk; Burns / Merry on Karabakh;

This was first published in the September 26, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan


Foreign leaders arrive in New York for annual meetings

The presidents of Georgia, Iran, and Russia and the prime minister of Turkey were among dozens of foreign leaders in attendance at the annual United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York this week. Armenia and Azerbaijan dispatched their foreign ministers.

In a talk at Princeton University on September 23, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to submit the Armenia-
Turkey protocols for ratification on October 10–11, “if we don’t see prejudice or some domestic political considerations at play.” (It is unclear whether the Turkish parliament normally meets on the weekend, with October 10 and 11 being Saturday and Sunday.)

Mr. Erdogan was also due to raise Armenian issues in a meeting with President Barack Obama at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh on September 25, six months after Mr. Obama publicly urged Turkey to come to terms with its past and to normalize relations with Armenia in an expeditious manner.

But before that meeting, Mr. Erdogan’s delegation reportedly scuffled with Mr. Obama’s security detail as their paths crossed at the Clinton Global Initiative offices in Manhattan, with the Turkish leader himself reportedly getting physically involved.

“A foreign delegation got confused and were trying to enter the president’s departure tent and didn’t understand the verbal instructions being given. They had to be physically restrained,” a spokesperson for the Secret Service told the Washington Times, whose correspondent witnessed the incident.

A frequent visitor to the United States in the past, Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili made his first public trip to New York since the August 2008 war over South Ossetia.

Mr. Saakashvili met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on September 21. Promised continued diplomatic support on South Ossetia and Abkhazia at that meeting, Mr. Saakashvili was also urged to remain patient with their de-facto annexation by Russia.

Separately, U.S. and Georgian officials were due to discuss potential resettlement of terrorism suspects released from the military prison in Guantanamo in Georgia, Civil.ge reported.

Pentagon wants anti-Iran radar in the Caucasus

A senior U.S. military official said that an American early-warning radar (referred to as X-Band radar) aimed at missiles potentially launched from Iran was “probably more likely to be in the Caucasus,” a region that is adjacent to Iran, rather than in European countries that are further away.

Vice-chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright made the comment during a September 17 Pentagon press conference intended to explain the cancellation of U.S. plans for missile and radar deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Chief of Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolay Makarov was quick to respond. He said that Russia would view a U.S. radar in the Caucasus “negatively” unless Russia and the United States were “to build it jointly.”

The United States first expressed interest in a Caucasus radar in March 2007, when the director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency at the time, Gen. Henry Obering, floated the idea of a “mobile antimissile radar” in the Caucasus to monitor Iran; a U.S. official soon after denied there were any deployment plans.

In June 2007, Russian leader Vladimir Putin suggested the United States could receive information gathered by a Russian early warning radar base in Azerbaijan and other Russian facilities there instead of unilaterally deploying new radars. The Bush administration took interest in the offer, but U.S. officials argued that data supplied by Russia could not be a substitute for a U.S.-run missile defense system.

The United States has placed X-Band radars around the world, including one in Israel last year, marking the first foreign military deployment in Israel since its independence.

Of the three Caucasus states, only Georgia publicly welcomed the potential U.S. radar deployment, Eurasianet.org reported on September 18.

The same day, Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister Araz Azimov said that U.S. officials did not raise the issue during his Washington visit last week, Azerbaijani media reported.

U.S. sees “clear outline” for Karabakh peace, “tangible results” in weeks

“We hope that the recent progress made in talks between Presidents Aliyev and Sargsian will lead to tangible results when they meet next month,” U.S. Undersecretary of State Bill Burns said in prepared remarks delivered on September 18 at an event co-sponsored by Georgetown University and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Washington.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and his Armenian counterpart Serge Sargsian are expected to attend the next Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moldova on October 8-9.

The State Department’s most senior diplomat went on to note, “The outline of a possible settlement has been clear for some time, though as with all things, the devil lies in the details and further discussions will be needed to satisfy the concerns of both sides.”

Mr. Burns’ remarks appeared to be carefully calibrated and did not include any reference to U.S. recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Starting in August 2008, former U.S. negotiator for Karabakh Matt Bryza used language that emphasized Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity as the starting point of a settlement.

Writing earlier this year, a former official at the State and Defense Departments, Wayne Merry, also suggested, “the outlines of a settlement have been clear for fifteen years”; he at the same time offered a more concrete formula for resolution that would “reflect both the realities of war and the needs of peace.”

“These realities transcend the standard rhetoric of ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity’ as well as that of ‘national self-determination,’” Mr. Merry argued in his paper “Karabakh: Is war inevitable?”

“In a settlement, Armenia will get Karabakh and a land corridor to Armenia, while Azerbaijan gets back the lowland surrounding territories. This is not about justice, nor right and wrong, but is the inescapable and necessary formula for peace.”

“To be sure, there are a multitude of details (where the devil always lurks) and implementation problems (where the costs for outside powers will be substantial),” Mr. Merry concluded.

Former Senator counsels patience in U.S. relations with ex-USSR

The United States should be more respectful of other countries’ sensitivities, former Senator Chuck Hagel advised, particularly as political and economic power becomes more diffused around the world and the United States is less capable of accomplishing its goals singlehandedly.

Mr. Hagel spoke at a Georgetown University event sponsored by the Azerbaijani Embassy on September 18. The former Republican senator from Nebraska (1997–2009) was a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and a leading Senate voice on U.S. policy in the former Soviet areas.

The former senator counseled patience and “careful expectations” when dealing with former Soviet countries that have been “thrown into a new situation” in the last two decades.

He sidestepped more controversial issues such as Azerbaijan’s domestic politics and the Karabakh conflict, while also withholding the sort of praise for the sponsoring government that is frequently heard at such Washington events.

Mr. Hagel noted that the importance of the U.S. relationship with Azerbaijan, “a little country,” was first of all a function of it bordering on several larger countries such as Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

Earlier this year, Mr. Hagel was considered a candidate for a cabinet secretary post in the Obama administration. He is currently a professor at Georgetown and chairs the Atlantic Council of the United States, a group that promotes cooperation among NATO members and partners.

Azerbaijani official assails U.S. policies in “friendly talk”

A senior Azerbaijani official dismissed U.S. criticism of his government’s treatment of political opponents, restrictions on mass media and nongovernmental groups, and corruption, pointing to what he argued were similar restrictions or greater problems in the United States.

Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov also demanded that Washington do more to stimulate Azerbaijan’s motivation to cooperate with the United States.

In what he described as a “friendly talk,” Mr. Azimov recalled the scandal at the former Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and the mistreatment of terrorism suspects at the U.S. military detention facility at Guantanamo, and suggested that the United States had not fully investigated human-rights violations there. He further described U.S. military presence in Afghanistan as a “mess” and likened it to the ill-fated Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979–89.

Mr. Azimov also justified the recent ban on U.S.- and British-funded broadcasts in Azerbaijan, claiming that the United States “would not allow” such broadcasters to use its national frequencies. (In fact, a number of foreign-funded media are available on national frequencies in the United States.)

The Azerbaijani official went on to propose that he “could not measure corruption” and therefore could not judge whether there was more corruption in the United States or Azerbaijan.

Discussing the history of U.S.-Azerbaijan engagement, Mr. Azimov described the United States as “more clumsy than it could be.” He noted that not a single U.S. secretary of state had visited Azerbaijan since the “one-hour visit” by Jim Baker in 1992.

“The time which was necessary for the [Obama administration] to get prepared has elapsed,” he stressed. “We expect high[-level] visits, . . . we expect statements made publicly on U.S. strategy for the Caucasus,” as well as U.S.-Russia cooperation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

Speaking on September 18 at the Georgetown University conference sponsored by the Azerbaijani Embassy, Mr. Azimov also took time to list what Azerbaijan believes are its contributions to the world civilization and the West.

Mr. Azimov arrived in Washington for the annual security dialogue meetings with U.S. officials. A deputy foreign minister managing Azerbaijan’s relations with the West, Mr. Azimov has worked in the same capacity under four different ministers since 1994.

Briefly: U.S. vs. Iran in the "broken region" (Caucasus), Russian and Georgian politics plus Iraqi Armenians

First published in the October 13, 2008 Armenian Reporter:

From Washington, in Brief
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. security officials flock to the Caucasus

America’s preoccupation with Iran continues to contribute to a steady stream of security officials visiting the Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan, which shares both a land and maritime borders with the Islamic republic.

On October 11 one of the coordinators of America’s Iran policy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Debra Cagan was in Armenia, where she thanked its leaders for the country’s contribution to the U.S. effort in Iraq and praised Armenian soldiers that she met there as “brave and courageous.”

Ten days earlier, on October 1, Ms. Cagan was in Azerbaijan to discuss military cooperation, Interfax reported. And during a September 11 meeting, Ms. Cagan reportedly “intimidated” a group of British parliamentarians with her rhetoric on
Iran, London’s Daily Mail claimed on September 29.

On September 27 CIA Director Michael Hayden made a stopover in Baku while on a regional tour, to discuss, as Azerbaijani news agencies reported, a possible exchange
of intelligence information and regional developments. Two House Intelligence Committee members visited Azerbaijan earlier this year.

In mid-September deputy director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency Brig. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly together with Russian security officials visited the Gabala early warning radar in Azerbaijan.

Russia offered U.S. to use the Russian facility at Gabala as an alternative to building facilities in central Europe, which Moscow argues can be used against its interests (see this column in July 7 Armenian Reporter).

While U.S. officials have declined the trade off, they did not rule out other forms of missile defense cooperation with Russia.

Meantime, a senior Azerbaijani official warned that possible U.S. use of the Gabala radar would pose a threat to Azerbaijan, RFE/RL reported on September 20 citing Turan and The AP. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said that in such an event his country would need “security guarantees” from the United States.

Fearing Iranian retaliation, Azeri officials have repeatedly said they would not allow U.S. to launch attacks from its territory.

Europe’s Caucasus envoy speaks of “broken region”

In October 2 testimony to the European Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee, the European Union’s envoy for the Caucasus Peter Semneby said that “old-fashioned, ethnically exclusive” nationalism remains dominant in the region, RFE/RL reported the next day.

Amb. Semneby said that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia lack a common identity. “Given the rivalries between and inside the countries, this identity has to be larger than the region itself,” he said. “An additional layer of identity, a European identity, is what comes to mind here.”

The European envoy said that such an identity could bring the region together based both on shared interests and common values.

In Amb. Semneby’s assessment Georgia was most advanced along the European path, but also the most vulnerable due to its conflicts with Russia. The EU, he said, had no intention of siding with Georgia in these conflicts and would continue to work with governments of Russian-backed South Ossetia and Abkhazia and in conjunction with
Russia itself.

In the Karabakh conflict, EU will focus on confidence-building measures to overcome the existing isolation between Armenians and Azeris. On domestic issues, Amb. Semneby noted that Armenia’s May parliamentary elections marked an improvement on previous polls, while in Azerbaijan the human rights situation continued to deteriorate.

***

In recent weeks, the European Parliament Foreign Relations Committee has also been discussing an annual report on EU’s relations with Turkey. The European Armenian Federation (EAF) criticized the removal of a passage on the Armenian Genocide from the draft report prepared by a Dutch Christian Democratic MEP and has advocated a reinstatement of the reference.

EAF also reported on October 3 that the same Dutch party decided to withdraw a nominee for the European Parliament over his denial of the Armenian Genocide. Mr.
Osman Elmaci, a Dutch citizen of Turkish descent, had already been disqualified to run in national elections for the same reason.

Russia’s Putin hints at staying in power beyond 2008

President Vladimir Putin said on October 1 that he would lead the list of the ruling United Russia Party in December parliamentary elections and may subsequently become prime minister, although, he has yet to make a final decision, Russian and international news media reported.

Mr. Putin is completing his second four-year presidential term in March and is not eligible to run in that election. However, commentators in Russia and abroad have
speculated that Mr. Putin could work to amend the constitution, shifting power to the post of prime minister, which he would assume.

Or, alternatively, he could temporarily hand presidential power over to a loyalist only to run for the presidency again in an early election, thus obviating the ban on serving more than two successive terms.

In a surprise move last month, Mr. Putin named a largely unknown bureaucrat Viktor Zubkov as prime minister (see this column in September 15 Armenian Reporter).

In another surprise move he appointed the outgoing Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov as director of foreign intelligence.

For now, with a high public approval rating and unrivaled influence, future developments in Russia appear to be fully up to Mr. Putin.

Georgian president’s challenger recants, leaves politics

A former ally of the Georgian president who just days ago accused him of a slew of crimes and was subsequently arrested has now recanted and reportedly decided to leave politics, Georgian and international media reported.

Irakly Okruashvili, a former influential member of President Mikhail Saakashvili’s government, also posted a more than $6 million in bail money to be released from prison before his trial on corruption charges, to which he pled guilty. Georgian television showed an irritated Mr. Okruashvili as he said his allegations against the
president were not true and that he himself was involved in criminal activity.

Upon his release Mr. Okruashvili decided to leave politics, Civil.ge reported on October 11, having just set up an opposition political party.

Still, political parties in opposition to the president said they would go ahead with the protests, claiming that Mr. Okruashvili gave his testimony under duress.

The president’s allies, meantime, claimed that the allegations against the president were part of a “conspiracy” against the country involving an influential businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili who has been at odds with the government for some time.

Two Iraqi Armenians killed by security guards
by Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – The Armenian community suffered another loss as two women were shot and killed amid continuing violence in Iraq this week.

The victims, identified as Marou Awanis and Geneva Jalal, were in a car traveling next to a convoy protected by Unity Resources Group, an Australian security firm contracted by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

The group’s representative claimed that its guards opened fire when the car failed to slow down after several warnings. The incident occurred on October 9 along the main street in central Baghdad’s Karrada neighborhood.

According to www.Iraqbodycount. org, riding in the car with the women were two children, one of whom was shot in the arm.

According to the site, 76 other civilians were confirmed killed on the same day in various circumstances around Iraq. The total death toll since the U.S. invasion in 2003 is estimated at nearly 80,000.

Private security companies which protect U.S. and other foreign personnel working in Iraq have been criticized for excessive use of force, particularly after guards working for Blackwater USA were blamed for the deaths of 17 civilians in a single incident last month.

Unity provides services for RTI International, a governance development consultant based in Research Triangle Park, N.C., and contracted by USAID for projects around the world.

Rev. Narek Ishkhanian, a priest at Baghdad’s Virgin Mary Armenian church, who officiated at the women’s funeral, told the Times of London that the shooting was “another crime against the citizens in Iraq. Every day civilians are being killed and no one is trying to stop it from happening.”

An Iraqi police official told The Associated Press that the security company apologized for the deaths and “was ready to meet all legal commitments.”

According to the Los Angeles Times, 49-year-old Basra native Mrs. Awanis was previously a scientist for Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry and after the death of her husband two years ago took up chauffeuring to make ends meet. She is survived by three daughters, aged 12, 20, and 21.

No further information on Ms. Jelal, born in 1977, was available.

U.S.-Azerbaijani security talks in Washington

Originally published in July 14, 2007 Armenian Reporter.

U.S., Azeri officials discuss security issues
Azerbaijan’s threats over Karabakh, democratic record glossed over
By Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – U.S. and Azerbaijani officials discussed security cooperation in talks held here this week. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov led a delegation that included officials from six of Azerbaijan’s seven militarized agencies to the U.S. for the “10th annual bilateral security dialogue.”

The visit was originally scheduled for April but it was postponed after Azerbaijan protested a correction to a passage pertaining to the Karabakh conflict in one of State Department’s reports that was later reversed.

While U.S. is seeking Azerbaijan’s cooperation to undermine Russian energy dominance in Eurasia and help contain Iran, Azerbaijan’s own domestic record and threatening posture towards Armenia appear to be taking a back seat.

In a July 9 press-conference, Mr. Azimov said that his government was ready for an “increased partnership with the U.S. whose commitment to Azerbaijan’s… sovereignty and total integrity remains unswerving,” a veiled reference to Azerbaijan’s claims on Karabakh.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza weighed in that while his government has a “deep commitment to Azerbaijan’s… territorial integrity,” in the matter of the Karabakh conflict it is also looking for a compromise between that principle and “people’s right to self-determination.” And, he added, “there’s no universal formula… to do that.”

Mr. Bryza did not raise Azerbaijan’s continued threats to launch a war in Karabakah. He described cooperation on security, energy and democratic reform as the three focal issues in bilateral discussions.

Asked if the matter of the recently intensified crackdown on mass media in Azerbaijan, particularly the imprisonment of Eynulla Fatullayev had been raised in talks, Mr. Bryza said that “we’re going to do it probably tomorrow.”

But Mr. Azimov retorted that such issues are not “related to the current agenda of my presence here” and that security cooperation and democratic issues should be addressed separately.

Meantime, U.S. human rights advocates argued during a July 12 congressional hearing that U.S. “could better balance human rights promotion with other strategic interests,” the Washington-based Freedom House reported the same day.

The think tank’s executive director Elizabeth Windsor said in a statement that Azerbaijan, like Cuba and Egypt “arrests journalists for practicing their profession, stifles meaningful political competition, shows a blatant disregard for internationally recognized human rights, and seeks to isolate its people from the global dialogue on freedom.”

Unlike Cuba, which is under U.S. embargo, both Egypt and Azerbaijan, including their security agencies directly implicated in human rights violations, are recipients of U.S. assistance.

When first announced last week, the hearing was titled “Is there a Human Rights Double Standard: U.S. Policy Toward Azerbaijan, Cuba and Egypt.” But earlier this week the title was changed to “Ideals vs. Reality in Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Policy.”