Briefly on Obama and Turkey, U.S. vs. Iran, U.S. backing of Georgia over Abkhazia

First published in July 19, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Yelena Osipova and Emil Sanamyan

Rep. Wexler: U.S.-Turkey ties to “blossom” under Obama presidency

Under the presidency of the Democratic party hopeful Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, American-Turkish relations will not only do well, but they will “blossom,” Rep. Robert Wexler (D.–Fla.), co-chair of the congressional Turkey Caucus and an Obama supporter predicted on July 14.

Mr. Wexler, who also chairs the House Subcommittee on Europe, made the claim at a presentation of his book, The Fire-Breathing Liberal, hosted by the Turkish Coalition of America, a lobbying group. (A review of the book’s chapter on Turkey will appear in September 13, 2008 issue of the Armenian Reporter.)

Unlike his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Democratic presidential hopeful issued a detailed statement on the “importance of U.S.-Armenia relations.” In the January 19, 2008, statement, Mr. Obama pledged that “as President I will recognize the Armenian Genocide,” while supporting a settlement of the Karabakh conflict “based upon America’s founding commitment to the principles of democracy and self-determination.”

Turkish leaders have expressed annoyance and anxiety over Mr. Obama’s statements, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan angrily calling him an “amateur” last January.

On April 24, and again earlier this month, Mr. Obama reiterated his strong support for the affirmation of the Armenian Genocide while questioning the Bush Administration’s policy on the issue. (See his questions to Ambassador-Designate Yovanovitch elsewhere in this issue of the Armenian Reporter.)

That didn’t stop Mr. Wexler from stumping for both Mr. Obama and Turkey. “I don’t think there is any legitimate foreign policy voice in this country that would not agree that in order to remove 150,000 American troops responsibly from Iraq we are going to need to cooperate very closely with Turkey. And I know that Sen. Obama understands that,” Mr. Wexler argued, without claiming, however, that the need for cooperation would also force the potential president to renege on his strong and repeated pre-election pledges.

Asked by the Armenian Reporter why he chose not to highlight his role in opposing the Armenian Genocide resolution in the justpublished book, Mr. Wexler noted he represents a district with probably the largest number of Holocaust survivors.

“Issues relating to genocide of any type, alleged or not, have great sensitivity,” Mr. Wexler admitted, adding that one of his opponents an upcoming congressional election is a son of a Holocaust survivor and is very critical of Rep. Wexler’s position on the Genocide resolution.

U.S. seen to be softening approach on Iran

In what is seen as a reversal of the U.S. policy of refusing to negotiate with Iran, and despite another spike in a mutually acrimonious rhetoric over the past month, Undersecretary of State William Burns (the State Department’s number three) will join the European Union’s “foreign minister” Xavier Solana, as he meets Iran’s diplomats in Switzerland this weekend.

The development came just as Britain’s Guardian newspaper reported that the United States will soon establish a diplomatic presence in Iran.

The United States and the European Union are anticipating Iran’s response to their “incentives” offer in exchange for Iran stopping its nuclear program. Previously, the Bush administration refused to talk with Tehran before the Islamic Republic suspends its uranium enrichment program.

Iran argues that it is not bound by any treaty to halt enrichment and claims its program is peaceful.

The White House said that Mr. Burns’ trip is meant to demonstrate the West’s unity on the issue.

Nevertheless, Reuters quoted the White House spokesperson also saying that in case Iran rejects the incentives package, there will be no negotiations, and additional sanctions will be introduced against Iran.

Middle East tensions have been increasing since June, as Israel air forces held massive exercises described as a “mock raid” on Iran, and Iran responded with tests of medium and long-range missiles, which, it says, are capable of reaching Israel.

At the same time, a longtime supporter of revising U.S. policy, Sen. Chuck Hagel (R.-Neb.) and Congressional Democrats including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Howard Berman (D.-Calif.) have called for unconditional U.S. talks with Iran. Mr. Hagel also argued for stationing U.S. diplomats in the U.S. interests section in Iran, a step short of a full-fledged embassy.

These developments came as Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah exchanged the bodies of two Israeli soldiers for five live Hezbollah prisoners – the first such swap ever. The two soldiers were killed and their bodies captured during a cross-border Hezbollah raid in 2006 which sparked a month-long Israeli war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

U.S. weighs in for Georgia as explosions in Abkhazia claim lives

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was in Georgia last week to reaffirm U.S. support, as its Caucasus ally appeared nearer to an open military confrontation with the de facto independent Abkhazia and its ally Russia.

Speaking in Tbilisi on July 10, Dr. Rice said it was “extremely important that the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia be resolved on the basis of principles that respect [Georgia’s] territorial integrity.” She also stressed the need for peaceful settlement of the conflicts, suggesting that “some of the activities that Russia has engaged in have not promoted a peaceful resolution.”

In recent months Russia has beefed up its military presence in Abkhazia from 2,000 to 2,500 and sent combat aircraft on patrols over both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which it no longer recognizes as Georgian territories. Russian aircraft reportedly flew near Tbilisi, as Ms. Rice arrived.

More recently, so-far-unidentified saboteurs set off a series of explosions throughout Abkhazia, killing four and wounding more than a dozen civilians last week.
Abkhaz officials accused the Georgian government of a “terrorist campaign” and for the first time in several years sealed the border with Georgia.

The developments have led a number of commentators in Georgia, Russia, Europe, and the United States to warn that tensions may spiral out of control and result in
a new war.

But two Abkhazia-based commentators contacted by the Armenian Reporter – Diana Kerselyan of the Sukhum Media Club and Akhra Smyr of the Independent Expert Fund – did not believe that the most recent escalation heralded an outright war.

Mr. Smyr hinted that the escalation was intended by Georgia “for media purposes” to once again draw international attention to the conflict, while Ms. Kerselyan pointed to Georgia’s reliance on the United States, which has argued repeatedly against a resumption of fighting that could also draw in Russia.

Georgia agreed to a Russian peacekeeping presence in its former Black Sea province of Abkhazia in 1993, after losing a war for its control launched a year before. In recent years, as Georgia strengthened its military under its pro-American president Mikhail Saakashvili, Tbilisi sought the removal of Russian forces and return of Abkhazia, and another former province it attacked in the early 1990s, South Ossetia, under its control. At the same time, Georgia has pushed for membership in NATO, to Moscow’s chagrin.

Briefly: Bush, Obama, freemasons mark 4/24; State Dept. terror and FH press reports; Burns on Turkey; U.S. buying Azeri oil; more Abkhazia tension

First published in May 3 and 10, 2008 Armenian Reporter, respectively.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Bush, Obama issue April 24 statements

President George W. Bush issued a traditional statement on “Armenian Remembrance Day” to “honor the memory of the victims of one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th century, the mass killings and forced exile of as many as 1.5 million Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire.”

As in years past, Mr. Bush failed to uphold his pre-election pledge to properly refer to the Armenian experience as Genocide and again welcomed efforts in Armenia and Turkey of “open examination of the past in search of a shared understanding of these tragic events.”

Meanwhile, presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama (D.-Ill.) said in a statement that the current U.S. position on the issue is “untenable.”

“It is imperative that we recognize the horrific acts carried out against the Armenian people as genocide,” Mr. Obama said in a statement submitted into the Congressional Record on his behalf by Senate Majority leader Harry Reid (D.-Nev.).

President Bush’s statement also called on the Armenian government “to take decisive steps to promote democracy” and reiterated the U.S. commitment “to a strong relationship with Armenia based on shared values.”

French freemasons call for genocide recognition by Turkey

France’s largest freemason organization, the Grand Orient de France, has pledged to promote Armenian Genocide affirmation, according to reports in Turkey’s Zaman newspaper.

The lodge Grand Master Jean-Michel Quillardet made the pledge at the commemorative event in Paris on April 24. A delegation from Grand Orient also attended commemorations in Yerevan.

Unlike most of its Masonic counterparts in other countries, the Grand Orient frequently takes public positions on social and political issues. Established in 1733, the lodge counts many historical French figures as its members and remains an influential organization.

During a meeting with the Association of European Journalists last February Mr. Quillardet said he has encouraged Turkish freemasons to promote genocide recognition. “I told my Turkish brothers to work on the Armenian genocide. They will make necessary preparations to make Turkey recognize it through democratic means,” Zaman quoted him as saying.

Mr. Quillardet reportedly also raised the issue with the President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso in a meeting on April 8, prior to Mr. Barroso’s trip
to Turkey.

U.S. report notes problems with “war on terrorism”

2007 saw another increase in terrorism-related fatalities around the world, according to the State Department’s annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report released on April 30. More than 22,000 people died in terrorism-related incidents worldwide, an 8-percent increase over 2006.

Sixty percent of all deaths occurred in Iraq, and Afghanistan and Pakistan came second and third in the grim statistic, with the two countries together accounting for 13 percent of the fatalities.

The report said that Armenia “strengthen[ed] its counterterrorism capabilities and enhanced its counterterrorism cooperation with U.S.,” singling out Armenia’s contribution to U.S.-led military operations, including in Iraq, and efforts to prevent cross-border smuggling and terrorism financing.

At the same time, report noted that “endemic government corruption, a significant organized crime presence, and a large shadow economy” as well as Armenia’s “geographic location, porous borders, and loose visa regime still provided ample opportunities for traffickers of illicit materials, persons, and finances.” It also noted Armenia’s reluctance to “criticize publicly objectionable Iranian conduct.”

The report expressed no such concerns in reference to neighboring Azerbaijan or Georgia, citing instead their government efforts to crackdown on Islamic radical groups. No such groups are known to operate on Armenia’s territory.

Freedom House: 2007 Armenia press freedom two points worse

The world’s press freedom continued to decline, according to findings of the Washington-based Freedom House think tank released on April 29. It found the largest setbacks in the former Soviet republics, particularly in Russia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

The report concluded that Armenia’s press remained “not free” and observed one point setbacks in the media’s political and legal environment, giving the country a score of 66 instead of 64. The report cited pressure on Gala TV in Gyumri and incidents with two Yerevan newspaper editors who were active in the opposition preelection campaign to substantiate its conclusions.

(In an editorial on May 12, 2007, the Armenian Reporter took issue with the quality of Freedom House’s earlier findings.)

Neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan got scores of 60 (partly free) and 77 (not free), respectively.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Former senior U.S. official: If Turkey opens to Armenia, Armenians will respond

“If the Turkish government makes a historic opening, reaches out to Armenia, I believe the Armenians will respond,” former Undersecretary of State Nick Burns said on May 8. The comment was part of Mr. Burns’ proposals to Turkey, which included a call to settle “historic animosities” and “sensitive subjects” with its neighbors, and echoed what Mr. Burns said in his official capacity last September (see this page in the September 22, 2007, issue).

Turkish president Abdullah Gül became one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate President Serge Sargsian on his election in February, and senior officials from two countries have since exchanged other correspondence, but there has been no indication yet that Turkey would reconsider its preconditions to relations with Armenia.

Mr. Burns, who left the Bush Administration in March, made the remarks in an annual lecture sponsored by one of Turkey’s largest business groups, Sabanci Holding, at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. The former State Department number-three agreed that Turkey remains a “vital” country for the United States, and noted that bilateral relations have improved over the last year.

U.S. emerges as major buyer of Azerbaijani oil

Since the launch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in June 2006, the United States has emerged as one of the largest single importers of oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea deposits developed by BP (formerly known as British Petroleum), according to statistics published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The United States began to purchase Azerbaijani oil in September 2006, with $688 million worth of crude imported in 2006 and $1.75 billion in 2007; $500 million worth was imported in January and February of this year. While the Azerbaijani crude comprised only about 0.5% of all such U.S. imports in 2007, it made up a substantial portion of total Azerbaijani oil exports, valued at about $18 billion last year (of which about $3 billion were Azerbaijan’s and the rest that of the BP-led consortium).

Increased oil production, which is expected to peak in 2012, has allowed the Azerbaijani government to beef up spending, with military spending specifically due to reach $2 billion in 2008, according to the recent declaration by the country’s president.

Georgia pushes for international condemnation of Russia

Tensions over Abkhazia persisted in recent weeks, as local officials claimed to have shot down two more of Georgia’s spy drones and Tbilisi condemned Moscow for sending additional peacekeeping forces into the province that has been de facto independent from Georgia since the war of 1992–93.

Georgia meanwhile has pressed for a more robust international reaction to credible reports that Russian forces in Abkhazia, there under a United Nations mandate to promote peace, have increasingly targeted Georgian forces, and as Russia moved closer to effectively annexing Abkhazia.

Georgia has for years pushed for withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers and their replacement with other forces, but has again failed to win international support for such a move following a special UN Security Council meeting on Abkhazia on April 23. Still, U.S. and European officials and legislators have continued to express overall support for Georgia.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed on May 7 a nonbinding measure, H. Res. 1166, that backed peaceful restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity and condemned the Russian government’s moves over Abkhazia and another breakaway province, South Ossetia. Congress also reiterated support for Georgia’s accession into U.S.-led NATO alliance.

Also this week, the European Parliament members blasted Russian moves over Abkhazia, but will not vote on a resolution on the subject until next month. Some European politicians have linked Russia’s moves over Georgia to the West’s unilateral recognition of Kosovo earlier this year.

Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh told Russia’s RIA Novosti, “We do not want Moscow to recognize us in defiance of the United States in order to take revenge for Kosovo. We want independence because we have a right to it.”

—Haik Gugarats contributed to this week’s Briefing.

Briefly: Nuclear power; Nick Burns; “Genocide Prevention Task Force;” EU on Caucasus and Saakashvili's inauguration

This was originally published in January 26, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

by Emil Sanamyan

American nuclear energy official visits Armenia
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissioner Peter Lyons was in Armenia January 21–22 to discuss the Armenian government’s plans to build a new nuclear power plant to replace the existing one at Metsamor before 2016.

The U.S. Embassy in Yerevan reported that Mr. Lyons’ talks focused on how the Nuclear Regulatory Commission “can help Armenia to develop the regulatory infrastructure needed in order to license a new nuclear power plant.”

Last November, the United States agreed to fund a $2 million environmental impact and technical feasibility study that would help the Armenian government choose the best technical solutions and project logistics.

During a visit to Armenia last April, Russia’s chief nuclear energy regulator Sergei Kirienko offered assistance with both construction and funding for the new nuclear power plant. (See this page in the December 15, 2007, edition of the Armenian Reporter .) Russia has been the sole nuclear fuel supplier to Armenia and its electricity monopoly RAO UES currently manages Metsamor.

The Armenian energy minister, Armen Movsisian, has said that he anticipates involvement by several countries in what is variously estimated to be a $1 to $2 billion project.

Top U.S. diplomat to retire “for personal reasons”
Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nick Burns intends to retire this March “to go back to family concerns,” the State Department announced on January 18. The administration intends to nominate the current ambassador to Russia, Bill Burns (not related), to replace him.

Since 2005 the outgoing undersecretary has been the U.S. diplomat in charge of negotiating international sanctions against Iran, the future status of Kosovo, mending of U.S.-Turkish relations, as well as a U.S.-India agreement on nuclear energy. Mr. Burns, 51, is due to continue to deal with the India issue after his retirement, when he intends “to pursue other ventures outside the government.”

The Los Angeles Times noted on January 19 that the move came “amid signs that U.S. efforts on key issues have been losing momentum.” As undersecretary, Mr. Burns was the public face of the department, frequently announcing and articulating U.S. foreign policy initiatives.

Last September, shortly before taking a trip to Ankara, he acknowledged difficulties in U.S.-Turkish relations since 2002 and spoke on the need to “restore” bilateral ties, particularly through “mechanisms” to clamp down on anti-Turkey Kurdish forces in northern Iraq.

He said at the time that while the Bush Administration has repeatedly acknowledged and condemned the “mass killings and forced deportations” in Ottoman Turkey, it opposes “the passage of the U.S. House of Representative’s Resolution 106, which would make a political determination that the tragedy of 1915 constituted genocide.”

That pronouncement was followed by aggressive administration lobbying against the Armenian Genocide resolution in October, a Turkish prime minister’s visit to Washington in November, and provision of U.S. intelligence to help Turkish military operations in northern Iraq since last December.

Members of Congress urge “Genocide prevention task force” to learn from Armenian experience
Four lead co-sponsors of the congressional resolution on the Armenian Genocide wrote to the co-chairs of the recently launched anti-genocide initiative on January 17 “to ensure that the lessons of the Armenian Genocide are used to help prevent future genocides.”

The letter, co-signed by Reps. Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.), Joe Knollenberg (R.-Mich.), Adam Schiff (D.-Calif.), and George Radanovich (R.-Calif.), was made available to the Armenian Reporter by Mr. Pallone’s staff.

“When addressing U.S. policy on genocide,” the representatives argued, “no serious discussion can take place that does not cover the extensive U.S. record documenting the American response to the Armenian Genocide, as well as the modern-day impact of the ongoing denial of this crime,” it read.

The “Genocide prevention task force” is co-chaired by Madeleine Albright and Bill Cohen, former Clinton Administration secretaries of state and defense, respectively. They intend to issue a report on the subject by December of this year.

As former secretaries launched the “task force” last November, they repeatedly heard questions, including from this newspaper, about their credibility on the issue. (See this page in the November 17, 2007, edition of the Armenian Reporter .) Ms. Albright and Mr. Cohen have advocated against congressional affirmation of the Armenian Genocide while both in and out of government.

European Parliament wants “more effective” Caucasus policy
The European Union (EU) was urged to “develop a clear profile and stronger presence” in the Caucasus in a resolution passed by the European Parliament on January 17, the European Armenian Federation (EAF) reported.

The resolution expressed support for “an inbuilt differentiation in the application of the [EU] policy towards the countries concerned . . . according to their individual merits”. The resolution particularly welcomes “internal political and institutional reforms undertaken by Armenia” since 2005 and urges further progress; it is also generally supportive of Georgia, although expressing concern over its government’s crackdown on opposition last November; and it is critical “of the deterioration of the human rights situation and media freedom in Azerbaijan.”

The EAF criticized the resolution for avoiding a mention of the Armenian Genocide, instead referring to “past events,” and failing to clearly condemn Azerbaijan’s anti-Armenian policies and rhetoric. Moreover, the original text prepared by MEP from Luxemburg (and its former foreign minister) Lydie Polfer also included a line endorsing “internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan.”

The final version retained that reference while also expressing support for “the right to self-determination, in accordance with UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act” and claiming “that the contradiction between the principles of self-determination and territorial integrity contributes to the perpetuation of the unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus region,” Armenpress reported.

President inaugurated in Georgia as opposition protests
Mikhail Saakashvili was inaugurated for a second term as Georgian president on January 20, local media reported.

The inauguration was attended by presidents of the three Baltic States, Poland, and Romania, as well as ministerial delegations from the U.S., Russia, Armenia, and elsewhere. The inauguration went ahead while many thousands of opposition supporters rallied in Tbilisi to protest it as illegitimate.

In his inaugural address, Mr. Saakashvili pledged to focus on overcoming poverty in Georgia’s provinces and improving relations with Russia and the political opposition, which accuses him of rigging the vote to avoid a runoff. Mr. Saakashvili was certified the winner of January 5 election with over 53% of the vote, roughly 70,000 votes above the fifty percent plus one vote threshold.

In Washington, long-time Georgia analyst Dr. Charles Fairbanks of the Hudson Institute argued on January 16 that at least 80,000 votes were added to Mr. Saakashvili’s total and his re-election in the first round was therefore invalid. The opposition claimed days after the election that as many as 110,000 votes were stolen. (See this page in the January 12 edition of the Armenian Reporter .)

But Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza told RFE/RL earlier this week that the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi concluded that while “there were irregularities of concern, there was no systematic attempt we saw to use massive fraud to change the result of the election.”

President Bush called to congratulate Mr. Saakashvili on January 14. Mr. Bryza urged the opposition to “move forward . . . accept the results and prepare for parliamentary elections,” which he said should be conducted “better.”