Briefly: Cheney's last hurrah? Pro-Azeri rhetoric and aid to Georgia

First published in September 6 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

State Department officials tout Armenia relations

The United States hopes that Armenia would contribute to its efforts to “knit” the Caucasus “back together” following the Russian-Georgian military confrontation, U.S. Undersecretary of State Bill Burns said in remarks just prior to a swearing-in ceremony, held on September 2, for the newly confirmed U.S. Ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch.

Mr. Burns went on to praise Armenia’s “humanitarian efforts in support of Georgia,” according to video of the remarks released by the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

The State Department’s third most senior official described the various areas in which the United States and Armenia have cooperated and said that the bilateral relationship is based on “shared values.”

Mr. Burns also called Armenia the “model of economic reform in its region.”

Referring to fighting over South Ossetia, Ms. Yovanovitch argued, “especially after the events of the last few weeks, it is clear that ending Armenian isolation in that region must become a priority.”

She said normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey would help in achieving a peaceful settlement with Azerbaijan.

Ms. Yovanovitch praised President Serge Sargsian for “bold leadership” in both efforts, while also promising to help the Armenian government to “restore democratic momentum” following the post-election crisis earlier this year.

The recently confirmed Ambassador also had good words for the Armenian-American community, which she said “is in so many ways a foundation and strength of our bilateral relationship.”

U.S. seeks to encourage “endangered” Azerbaijan

On a regional tour that aims to shore up U.S. influence badly damaged by Russia’s military incursion into Georgia, Vice President Dick Cheney and his wife Lynne arrived in Baku on September 3 for one day of talks with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, local U.S. embassy staff, and Baku-based representatives of Chevron and the company formerly known as British Petroleum.

Mr. Cheney’s priority in Azerbaijan was to make certain that Caspian oil and gas continues to be exported via Georgia, as it has been for the past several years, rather than through Russia. The Russian route would help Moscow control supplies from its Central Asian competitors.

Clearly wary of antagonizing Russia, Mr. Aliyev made no clear public commitments. Azerbaijani officials have instead commented on a possible revival of the cross- Russia route while they also refused to criticize Russia’s treatment of its “strategic partner” Georgia; Mr. Aliyev avoided mention of that country in his joint remarks with Mr. Cheney.

Earlier, Azerbaijan rebuffed persistent lobbying by former Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld to expand bilateral military cooperation against Iran. It is unclear whether Mr. Cheney had renewed a military cooperation offer this time around.

In remarks cited by Eurasianet.org, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Anne Derse said, “many in the region are afraid now that [Russia’s recent] actions are directed not only against Georgia, but against all of those who have democratic aspirations”; she was apparently referring to Ukraine and Azerbaijan, even though Azerbaijan has not exhibited such aspirations.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried described Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine as “three of the most endangered countries” in the region.

In comments released by the White House and apparently crafted to entice Azerbaijan’s sympathies, Mr. Cheney told Mr. Aliyev, “America strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. We are committed to achieving a negotiated solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – a solution that starts with the principle of territorial integrity, and takes into account other international principles.”

The United States, together with the two other lead mediators, Russia and France, has for the past decade supported a settlement formula that formalized Karabakh’s
reunification with Armenia. With France now mediating between the United States and Russia over Georgia, the future of the mediating troika’s role in the Karabakh conflict has been put into doubt.

A former energy sector executive, the vice president has had a long personal history with Azerbaijan, including through his past affiliation with the U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce, the country’s Washington-based lobby.

Although Mr. Cheney became the most senior U.S. official ever to visit Azerbaijan, Baku has uncharacteristically played down the visit’s importance. According to Eurasianet.org “local reporters were barred from having access to the US vice president.”

In a symbolic display at the Heydar Aliyev airport, the Cheneys were greeted by Deputy Prime Minister Yaqub Eyubov, who has traditionally handled lesser assignments for Mr Aliyev and his late father, the former president.



Bush pledges $1 billion in Georgia aid

The United States will provide more than $1 billion in economic aid to Georgia, President George W. Bush announced on September 3, as Vice President Dick Cheney was about to arrive in Tbilisi.

The $1 billion figure was reportedly first suggested by Sen. Joe Biden, who has since become the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee. Of the amount $570 million is proposed to be allocated before the end of the Bush administration.

The proposal would make Georgia one of the largest U.S. aid recipients in the world, after only Iraq, Israel, and Egypt, and on par with what war-torn Afghanistan has been receiving recently. Since Georgia launched its failed attack on South Ossetia on August 8, the United States has already provided Georgia with $30 million worth of humanitarian aid, dispatching naval vessels and military cargo planes to deliver the assistance.

More supplies are due to be delivered by the flagship of U.S. naval forces in the Mediterranean, USS Mount Whitney, which on September 3 was crossing the Turkish straits.

Although members of Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign have called for military aid to Georgia to counter Russia, the Bush Administration has not taken a public position on whether it would continue or expand its existing military programs in Georgia.

Nonetheless, the massive foreign assistance program will help Georgia free up even more funds for its already large military budget, which stood at $1 billion in 2007 and was expected to reach a similar amount this year. Russia this week said it will seek to prevent Georgia’s re-armament.

In addition to U.S. assistance, the International Monetary Fund announced that it would open a $750 million credit line on which Georgia could draw.

In other news, members of the European Union met on September 1 and limited the EU’s threats to Russia to a possible postponement of talks on a new treaty with Moscow unless Russia sticks to the cease-fire agreement mediated by France. The decision was given a positive spin by both the United States and Russia.

On a visit to Uzbekistan, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that "by and large common sense prevailed" at the EU summit and argued that Russia was complying with the cease-fire. But he also criticized the EU for failure to condemn Georgia’s attack against South Ossetia that sparked the war last month.

Republican presidential candidate selects running mate

In a surprising development, Sen. John McCain (R.-Ariz.), who this week officially became the GOP’s nominee for the White House, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Ms. Palin was elected governor less than two years ago. Prior to that she chaired the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in 2003–2004 and between 1996 and 2002was mayor of Wasilla, an Alaskan town of 6,000.

She has no known record on Armenian issues.

—Lusine Sarkisyan contributed to this week’s briefing.

Dan Fried talks U.S.' Caucasus policy

First published in June 21, 2008 Armenian Reporter

State Department, Congressional panel discuss U.S. policy in Armenia and its neighborhood
Armenian Genocide, Turkish blockade, Karabakh are focus of hearing
by Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – The members of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives and the Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Dan Fried on June 18 held a rare public discussion of U.S. policies in the Caucasus region.

The hearing, titled “Caucasus: Frozen Conflicts and Closed Borders,” was an opportunity for lawmakers to express their discontent with the Bush administration’s policy on the Armenian Genocide, lack of action on the Turkish blockade of Armenia, and threats by Azerbaijan to go to war over Karabakh.

The administration in turn used the opportunity to reiterate its concerns about Russia, Iran, and recent domestic developments in Armenia and, to a lesser extent, Azerbaijan.

The hearing was called by the committee chair Howard Berman (D.-Calif.), a member of the Armenian Caucus, just weeks after Rep. Adam Schiff (D.-Calif.) introduced a legislative measure titled “End the Turkish Blockade of Armenia Act” that, if passed, would require the Secretary of State to report on steps taken by the United States to end Turkey’s blockade of Armenia.

The legislation, introduced on May 15, came as efforts to secure House adoption of the Armenian Genocide resolution, passed in the Foreign Affairs Committee last October, appear to have stalled in the face of unprecedented opposition from the Bush administration.

On the Armenian Genocide

Rep. Schiff, as well as Reps. Jim Costa (D.-Calif.), Ed Royce (R.-Calif.), Brad Sherman (D.-Calif.) and Diane Watson (D.-Calif.), also used the opportunity to grill Assistant Secretary Dan Fried on the administration’s opposition to Genocide affirmation. There were heated exchanges.

Like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last year, Mr. Fried avoided giving a yes-or-no answer when pressed on whether he thought the Armenian experience in the Ottoman Empire should be described as genocide. Instead he argued that congressional recognition “would not contribute” to the cause of improved relations between Armenia and Turkey.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R.-Ariz.) was the lone committee member to express support for this position of the administration, saying that it was not up to Congress to “bestow” terms on the “awful thing” that happened to Armenians.

Secretary Fried did acknowledge that the record on “mass killings” and “forced exile” of Armenians was “very clear” and that the administration “never denied these events” and that the president continues to mark them annually in a statement.

He went on to say: “I’ve made it clear to everyone in the European Bureau that they are welcome to present any alternative views on this or any other issue in-house, and I’ve made clear that such views will be heard and respected.”

On Turkey’s blockade

Mr. Berman began the hearing by noting that Turkey’s closure of its land border was “quite possibly illegal,” citing Ankara’s obligations under the Treaty of Kars and regulations of the World Trade Organization, of which both Turkey and Armenia are members.

“It’s baffling why Ankara would want to pursue this land blockade, which also harms the economy of eastern Turkey [and] seems manifestly contrary to the strategic interests of Turkey, which purports to be a solid member of the Western alliance,” Mr. Berman argued.

“The land blockade has done absolutely nothing to persuade Armenia to alter its policies on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue – the ostensible cause of the land blockade in the first place. Nor is there any prospect that it will do so,” Mr. Berman continued.

“Armenia has demonstrated its resolve to support the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is more likely to win influence with the Armenian government if it pursues a policy of good-neighborliness than if it slams the border closed,” he said.

In response, Mr. Fried pointed to direct air links between Armenia and Turkey and trade conducted through Georgia, also frequently cited by officials from Ankara as evidence that Turkey was not quite blockading Armenia. He said that the United States would certainly welcome an opening of the land border as well and that such an opening should not be linked to the Karabakh peace process.

But when pressed by Reps. Costa, Royce, and Schiff, Mr. Fried did not reveal any steps to achieve the border opening beyond raising the issue.

Meantime, Turkish Caucus co-chair Rep. Robert Wexler (D.- Fla.) said that he remained “hopeful” that Armenia and Turkey will find ways to improve relations, pointing to the recent exchange of messages between the two governments.

Mr. Fried said he agreed that the exchange was “promising” and even suggesting that such an improvement could come “quickly.” But in his testimony he acknowledged that reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey will require steps that “will not be easy.”

“Turkey needs to come to terms with a dark chapter in its history: the mass killings and forced exile of up to 1.5 million Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire,” he said. “For its part, Armenia must be ready to acknowledge the existing border and disavow any claim on the territory of modern Turkey, and respond constructively to any efforts Turkey may make.”

On Karabakh

Mr. Berman, Mr. Royce, Mr. Sherman, as well as the Armenian Caucus co-chairs Reps. Joe Knollenberg (R.-Mich.) and Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.), who although not committee members took part in the hearing, also expressed concerns over Azerbaijan’s posturing in the Karabakh conflict.

Mr. Berman suggested that as in the Middle East, U.S. policy should not be solely focused on achieving a peace agreement but that the United States should also reduce tensions by promoting mutually beneficial projects between parties to the conflict.

Mr. Knollenberg and Mr. Royce referred to increases in Azerbaijan’s military spending and quoted statements of its president, Ilham Aliyev, about his readiness to go to war; they wondered what United States was doing about that.

Mr. Fried, while describing Azerbaijan’s “bellicose” rhetoric as “unhelpful,” disagreed that it intended to go to war, pointing to the recent meeting between Mr. Aliyev and President Serge Sargsian of Armenia.

“We’ve also explained to them, frankly, that Azerbaijan’s wealth comes from the export of gas and oil, and that a war puts that at risk very quickly,” Mr. Fried said. He added, “it is also the judgment of the United States that Azerbaijan does not have a military superiority over Armenia and that a war would be costly to both sides and unwinnable by either one.”

Also expressing “concern about Azerbaijan attacking Armenia because of a territorial dispute” was longtime Turkey and Azerbaijan supporter Rep. Dan Burton (R.- Ind.). Pointing to a need for energy independence, he also stressed the importance of minimizing prospect for conflicts in energy-rich areas, such as the Caucasus.

Rep. Bill Shuster (R.-Penn.), co-chair of the recently established Azerbaijan caucus, who was also invited to the committee hearing, noted Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the United States on energy and security issues and wondered whether Congress should accede to the “Muslim ally’s” requests and fully repeal restrictions on U.S. assistance to Azerbaijan, known as Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act.

Secretary Fried responded that existing conditional waiver authority, approved by Congress in 2001, provides sufficient opportunities for the United States to conduct relations with Azerbaijan.

Mr. Pallone and Mr. Sherman argued that the United States should move to expand relations with the Nagorno-Karabakh republic and recognize its people’s right to selfdetermination.

“We supported the independence of Kosovo, and we ought to take some of the same attitudes and apply them to the NK conflict,” said Mr. Sherman, while Rep. Pallone suggested “de facto” recognition of Karabakh’s independence and lifting of existing restrictions on U.S. engagement with Karabakh.

Other concerns

Secretary Fried referred during the hearing to the continued tensions between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway region of Abkhazia, suggesting that “unremitting and dangerous pressure from Russia” on U.S.-supported Georgia “risk[s] igniting a wider conflict.”

Mr. Fried also touched on U.S. efforts to undermine Russia’s dominance of Eurasian energy markets by facilitating energy development in Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

Concerns about Russia’s as well as Iran’s policies were also expressed by Reps. Gene Green (D.-Tex.), Ted Poe (R.-Tex.), David Scott (D.-Ga.), and others.

Mr. Berman, the committee chair, specifically asked Mr. Fried whether any of the Caucasus countries supplied Iran with uranium, saying a rumor to that effect was going around.

Mr. Fried said he was unaware of any such supplies, but would check further.

Finally, Rep. Joe Wilson (R.-S.C.) asked whether Islamic radicals from Al Qaida had infiltrated any part of the Caucasus. Secretary Fried responded that such efforts had been made in Russia’s North Caucasus and Azerbaijan, but not in Georgia or Armenia.

—Yelena Osipova contributed to this story.

Briefly: Russian displeasure on U.S.-Armenia nuclear proposal, Fried on Karabakh, GUAM issues a new draft resolution, Dink honored in Austria

This was originally published in December 15, 2007 Armenian Reporter.

by Emil Sanamyan

Russia displeased with U.S. role in Armenia’s nuclear energy plans
Russia’s former minister of nuclear energy Viktor Mikhailov expressed hope that “Armenia would accept Russia’s proposal and decline U.S. assistance” in the effort to build a new nuclear power plant, the Regnum news agency reported on December 6.

On November 21, the United States agreed to fund a $2 million feasibility study that would help determine the best technical solutions to replacing the aging reactor at the Metsamor power plant with a new nuclear energy-generating capacity. (See the story on page A1 of the November 24 Armenian Reporter.)

Armenia’s government has made building a new nuclear energy plant in the next several years a top priority and has reached out to the United States as well as Russia and other states for potential assistance.

Russia was first to react positively. During a visit to Armenia last April, Russian nuclear energy director Sergei Kirienko offered assistance with both construction and funding for the new plant, which is estimated to cost up to $2 billion. Since then U.S. officials have also expressed interest, resulting in the feasibility agreement.

Speaking on November 29, Armenia’s energy minister, Armen Movsisian, expressed confidence that several countries would be ultimately involved in the project.

Mr. Mikhailov, who currently holds a senior position at the Russian Federal Nuclear Center, was the nuclear energy minister at the time when Russia assisted Armenia in reactivating the Metsamor plant in the mid-1990s.

“When someone is playing a double game, it is difficult to make predictions,” Mr. Mikhailov said, but expressed hope that Armenia would stick with Russia on nuclear energy. He agreed with a suggestion that U.S. assistance was part of an effort to “strengthen political influence in Armenia.”


Senior U.S. diplomat takes issue with Azerbaijani policies, urges deal on Karabakh
“It is time to wrap up agreement on the Basic Principles of a Nagorno Karabakh settlement,” said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried speaking at an Azerbaijani-government organized conference in Washington on December 10.

Mr. Fried was referring to the joint proposal made by U.S., Russian, and French diplomats during the November 28 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Madrid. (See this page in the December 1 and 8 Armenian Reporter.)

Speaking at that meeting, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, broadly welcomed the proposal. Azerbaijani officials did not react immediately with President Ilham Aliyev taking a two-week vacation. On December 10, they requested additional time to study it, local media reported.

“The South Caucasus cannot achieve its full potential in the absence of a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement,” Mr. Fried said, according to a transcript released by the State Department. “As long as Armenia remains isolated in its region, a common vision of prosperity and freedom, and therefore stability, will not be attainable.”

Speaking with regional journalists last April, Mr. Fried addressed Azerbaijani military threats against Armenians, warning that “war will destroy everything Azerbaijan is trying to do.”

This week, the State Department official was also blunt about the continued crackdown on dissent in Azerbaijan, saying that the United States was “deeply disturbed” by it. Mr. Fried referred to Azerbaijan’s growing oil revenues and urged democratization, arguing that “sudden wealth unchecked by strong, honest institutions to handle it can fatten a small group of well-placed leaders rather than strengthen a nation.”

The conference on “The Azerbaijan-Turkey-U.S. Relationship,” which Mr. Fried addressed, continued in Los Angeles on December 13. According to the Azerbaijani consulate there, in addition to Azerbaijani and Turkish speakers, it also featured Beverly Hills, Calif., mayor Jimmy Jamshid Delshad.

GUAM states introduce a new UN draft resolution on post-Soviet conflicts
The governments of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova (GUAM) have again requested that the United National General Assembly express support for Soviet-era administrative borders as the basis for their territorial integrity.

The four-state grouping formally introduced the draft on December 4. The draft resolution’s text refers to Nagorno-Karabakh as a “region of the Republic of Azerbaijan” and calls for “support to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the Republic of Moldova and the inviolability of their internationally recognized borders.”

It is so far unclear when and if the UN General Assembly may consider the draft resolution. GUAM states had introduced a similar resolution last year, but then withdrew it prior to a vote being scheduled. (See this page in September 8 and November 3 Armenian Reporter.)

Unlike UN Security Council resolutions, those by the UN General Assembly are nonbinding, but they carry symbolic and political significance.

Armenia has already expressed its opposition to the most recent proposal. Speaking on November 28, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian noted Azerbaijan’s “active and aggressive search for alternative international forums in which to present their case” among the factors that undermine the peace process.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Vladimir Karapetian told Regnum news agency on December 10 that Armenia will work to prevent the proposal’s passage.


Late Hrant Dink recognized as “World Press Freedom Hero”
The Vienna-based International Press Institute (IPI) – a network of journalists, editors, and others who work in the media – this week honored Hrant Dink, the Turkish-Armenian editor who was killed in Istanbul last January, as one of its World Press Freedom Heroes.

The award was presented to Mrs. Rakel Dink on December 10. Mr. Dink worked to improve Turkish-Armenian relations and opposed the Turkish government’s censorship of topics such as the Armenian Genocide and continued discrimination against the remaining members of the Armenian community. (http://www.freemedia.at)


Minority Rights Group issues new report on Turkey
Also this week, the Minority Rights Group International, a Britain-based charity, issued a report that highlighted the Turkish government’s continued repression of minority groups.

The report “A Quest for Equality: Minorities in Turkey” noted that “instead of celebrating diversity, the history of the Republic of Turkey is one of severe and sometimes violent repression of minorities in the name of nationalism.”
(www.minorityrights.org)

Nareg Seferian contributed to this week’s column.