Briefly abt. ICG on Armenian politics; more ADL fall-out in Mass.; Armenian-American in Ohio Congress run; Turkish and Azeri caucuses; Bush in Russia

First published in April 12, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Think tank calls for international pressure on Armenia

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank issued a report criticizing as “inadequate” the international reaction to the Armenian government’s handling of the February 19 presidential elections and subsequent opposition protests that resulted in violent riots on March 1.

The report, “Armenia: Picking up the Pieces,” issued on April 8 suggested that unless the United States and European Union “exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress” on democratic reform and resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The pressure, the report recommended, should take the form of a potential suspension of foreign aid and a hold on closer cooperation.

The arguments in the report, which questions the legitimacy of Serge Sargsian’s presidency and appears to lay the blame for the post-election violence solely with the government, mirror closely the views of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian’s campaign – more than those expressed by international organizations and Western governments.

Incidentally, one of the ex-president’s closest aides involved in this year’s campaign, Levon Zourabian, was since 2004 the ICG analyst for Armenia, and helped develop its November 2004 report titled “Armenia: Internal Instability Ahead.”

Although Mr. Zourabian is still listed in that position on the think tank’s web site, ICG’s Tbilisi-based Caucasus Project Director Magdalena Frichova told the Armenian Reporter that Mr. Zourabian “left [the] Crisis Group back in January and had nothing to do with [the April 8] report.”

Ms. Frichova added that ICG is “acutely conscious of any conflict of interest, and [takes] all precautions against it.”

Mr. Zourabian had not responded to an e-mail query as of press time.

ICG is co-chaired by former senior British and U.S. officials Chris Patten and Thomas Pickering and led by former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans. In a report issued on November 14, ICG warned increased risk of war in Karabakh by 2012.

To see the full report connect at http://www.crisisweb.org

Massachusetts Municipal Association pulls sponsorship of Anti-Defamation

League program Citing the Anti-Defamation League’s failure “to clarify and strengthen its earlier statements concerning recognition of the Armenian Genocide” during the league’s national board meeting last November, the Massachusetts Municipal Association (MMA) voted on April 8 to withdraw its sponsorship of the league’s No Place for Hate (NPFH) program.

The action by MMA, which is an association of the state’s cities and towns, comes after 12 Massachusetts communities, starting with Watertown in August of last year, decided to suspend their cooperation with the Anti-Defamation League over its ambiguous position on Armenian Genocide affirmation.

connect: http://www.noplacefordenial.com

Armenian-American running for Ohio congressional seat

David Krikorian, a Cincinnati-area businessperson and state chair for the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), has been qualified to run as an independent candidate this November to represent Ohio’s second congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives, his campaign reported.

Mr. Krikorian will be running against incumbent GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt and her Democratic challenger Dr. Victoria Wulsin, who lost to Ms. Schmidt by a narrow margin in 2006. Ms. Schmidt is a member of the Turkish caucus and has opposed Genocide affirmation.

On the other hand, Dr. Wulsin had pledged to support the Armenian-American agenda and was, in the 2006 elections, backed by the ANCA.

In a comment to the Armenian Reporter, ANCA director Aram Hamparian praised Mr. Krikorian’s business and civic skills and said that the ANCA “join[s] with members of the Armenian community from the across the country in supporting him in every way we can.”

connect: http://www.krikorianforcongress.com

Azerbaijan, Turkey building congressional caucuses

Turkish and Azerbaijani lobbyists in Washington have been making steady progress in expanding their congressional influence over the past year. A highlight is the expansion of congressional caucuses dedicated to U.S. relations with the two countries.

Established in 2004, the Azerbaijan caucus has been actively recruiting members over the last year, increasing membership from 14 in April 2007 to 40 as of this week, according to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson, cited by Day.az on April 7.

According to the website of the Turkish Coalition of America there are currently 77 members in the congressional Turkey caucus, up from 71 reported by the caucus co-chair Rep. Robert Wexler (D.-Fla) at the end of 2006. Incidentally, many of the Turkey caucus members are also members of the Armenian caucus, which currently numbers 155 members.

Speaking on April 3 at the Rumi Forum, a recently established Turkish think tank in Washington, Mr. Wexler said that U.S.-Turkish relations have improved substantially over the past year. “The animosity that affected the relationship because of the Iraq War is no longer present,” he said.

When asked about the Armenian Genocide resolutions in the U.S. Congress, Mr. Wexler skirted the question, stressing the importance of continuing to build “a positive Turkish image in the U.S.”

Last month the Turkish government decided not to renew its contact with the lobby group of former House Speaker Bob Livingston (R.-La.), The Hill newspaper reported on March 31. The Livingston Group, which worked for Turkey for eight years, earned more than $12 million primarily for helping fight Armenian Genocide affirmation.

That task now falls on another big Washington firm, DLA Piper, which first picked up the contract with Turkey in May 2007. The firm is led by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R.-Tex.) and former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D.-Mo.)

Bush, Putin meet for final summit

The presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation met for their final summit near the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi on April 5–6 as President Vladimir Putin is set to conclude his term in office next month, news agencies reported. President George Bush also met with Mr. Putin’s successor, President-elect Dmitry Medvedev.

The two leaders sought to downplay bilateral differences issuing a “U.S.-Russia Strategic Framework Declaration” and exchanging compliments at a press conference.

While the declaration mentioned that the two countries will “work closely together on all the major global international issues that confront us,” it did not specifically refer among the priorities to either Karabakh or other post-Soviet conflicts, in which both the United States and Russia have played mediating roles.

Two days earlier both presidents attended the NATO summit in Romania, where Mr. Putin described U.S. calls for the alliance’s expansion into Ukraine and Georgia as a “direct threat” to Russia, RFE/RL reported. NATO postponed to December formal discussion of the two countries’ membership. (See this page in the April 5 Armenian Reporter.)

In Sochi, Mr. Putin also reiterated Russian opposition to the U.S. proposal, now backed by NATO, to station new radars and missile interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic. The U.S. administration says it will use them against a potential future missile threat from Iran.

But Russia argues that these installations can have multiple uses, including against its own forces, and would thus alter the strategic balance in Europe. Russia has offered to establish a joint missile-defense system, but the United States has been reluctant to allow Russia any major role in the system.

Since taking office in 2001, Mr. Bush has met Mr. Putin 28 times – more than any other foreign leader with the exception of former British prime minister Tony Blair.

- Alexa Millinger contributed to this week’s Briefing

Briefly: “Genocide Prevention Task Force” launched, ICG warns of war in Karabakh, AIPAC visits Azerbaijan

This was originally published in November 17, 2007 Armenian Reporter.
by Emil Sanamyan

Former administration officials face credibility questions as they launch anti-genocide effort
Former Secretaries of State and Defense Madeleine Albright and William Cohen this week announced the formation of the “Genocide prevention task force,” which they will co-chair. But while launching the effort at a press conference at the National Press Club on November 13, they repeatedly heard questions, including from the Armenian Reporter, about their credibility on the issue.

In addition to working against Armenian Genocide affirmation while in government, last September both Ms. Albright and Mr.Cohen co-signed letters opposing House Resolution 106, which affirms the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide. The former defense secretary’s lobby shop, the Cohen Group, maintains a “strategic alliance” with DLA Piper, one of the major lobbyists for the Turkish government.

Asked if their opposition to Armenian Genocide affirmation meant that the U.S. “shouldn’t be taking action on future genocides because of what it could mean to U.S. interests,” the former secretaries appeared to agree.

“There are no absolutes in this,” said Mr. Cohen. “There is an element of pragmatism... I think anyone serving in public office necessarily has to have a set of balancing factors to take into account.” In a follow-up comment one of the journalists noted: “It sounds as if both of you are saying that ‘if our friends do it, it’s not genocide, if our enemies do it, it is genocide.’”

“Secretaries Albright and Cohen can’t have it both ways,” argued the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) executive director Aram Hamparian. “Either they stand unconditionally against all genocides all the time, or, by choosing to only raise their voices when it’s convenient, they surrender their moral standing on this, the core human rights and humanitarian issue of our time.”

The Albright-Cohen “task force,” established jointly by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, the American Academy of Diplomacy, and the U.S. Institute of Peace, “will generate practical recommendations to enhance the U.S. government’s capacity to respond to emerging threats of genocide and mass atrocities” in a report scheduled for release in December 2008.

Connect at http://www.ushmm.org/conscience/taskforce/press/?content=2007-11-13


Think tank warns of increased risk of war in Karabakh by 2012
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank this week renewed its call on Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders to make progress toward a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict, although admitting that “the oil boom and extensive military development in Azerbaijan and steady economic growth in Armenia suggest that neither will feel compelled to compromise.”

In its “Nagorno Karabakh: Risking War” report issued on November 14, ICG said that the international community should do more to prevent a potential military escalation. Its analysts concluded that while an “all-out war” was unlikely in the near future, the risk of war “may reach a new level around 2012, however, when Azerbaijan’s oil revenues are expected to begin to decline.”

“At that point, Baku might be tempted to conclude that the balance of power was at its most favorable and that an appeal to extreme nationalism could counteract popular disenchantment with the regime. Before this happens, the international community needs to lose its complacency and lobby with all available pressure for peace.”

The peace formula currently on the table involves withdrawal of Armenian forces from around Karabakh, with “special modalities for Lachin and Kelbajar,” and parties agreeing that Karabakh’s status should be finalized through a new referendum. ICG suggested that parties should endorse basic principles of settlement, while also noting their disagreements, as soon as possible.

ICG is co-chaired by retired former senior British and U.S. officials Chris Patten and Thomas Pickering and led by former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans. Its previous report on “Nagorno Karabakh: Plan for Peace” issued in October 2005 also warned that increased defense spending and war rhetoric were “ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out.”

Connect at http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5157&l=1
See also the Armenian Reporter’s editorial on page A10.


Members of U.S. Israeli lobby visit Azerbaijan
American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) National Board member Ron Barness led the organization’s delegation on a visit to Azerbaijan, which included a meeting with President Ilham Aliyev on November 9, the latter’s press office reported the same day.

In the meeting Mr. Barness reportedly “stressed existence of tolerance and attention to the representatives of different confessions, including representatives of the Jewish community, in Azerbaijan.”

Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan Artur Lenk told the Trend news agency on October 25 that the group intended to visit to Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey, to promote these countries’ relations with the U.S. and Israel, and that “after the visit to the region the issue will be raised at the U.S. Congress.”

There have been no public reports about the AIPAC group’s trip to Turkey.


Armenia declines to join another Russian demarche at OSCE
Russia along with Belarus, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan suggested more restrictive guidelines for registration of nongovernmental organizations at the Vienna-based Organizations for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Washington-based Freedom House reported on November 6.

The initiative is unlikely to be endorsed by the OSCE, which operates on a consensus basis, but Moscow has used such proposals to gain leverage for concessions on other issues of interest.

Armenia, which joined an earlier proposal by Russia to curtail OSCE election monitoring (see Tatul Hakobyan’s report and analysis in the November 10 Armenian Reporter), declined to endorse the latest effort.

According to a source familiar with OSCE proceedings, the Armenian government resisted Russian lobbying because it has generally good relations with Armenian NGOs. After Armenia pulled out from the initiative, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic followed suit.

Nareg Seferian contributed to this week’s column.