Obama proposes budget, new reports on Armenian politics and Karabakh

First published in February 28, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama proposes 2010 budget, as Congress funds 2009

President Barack Obama made his first budget proposal since taking office, calling for an overall increase in funding for the State Department and other international programs to $51.7 billion, or $4.5 billion more than the Fiscal Year 2009 spending estimate, the White House announced on February 26.

Country-by-country breakdowns, including that for Armenia, were not available at press time. But the overall increase may help reverse the trend of recent years with U.S. aid programs for post-Soviet states declining from $452 million in 2007 to an estimated $346 million in 2009.

Meanwhile, on February 25, Congress passed the Omnibus spending bill for Fiscal Year 2009. According to the Democratic Party managers' report accompanying the legislation and made available to the Armenian Reporter, the legislation set aside $48 million in aid to Armenia and $8 million to Nagorno-Karabakh. There was also $3 million in foreign military financing for Armenia and Azerbaijan, each.

Overall, Armenia aid program remains one of the largest in Europe with only Kosovo ($120.9 million), Ukraine ($71.5 million), Russia ($60 million), and Georgia ($52 million) receiving more funding. Aid to Azerbaijan was set at $18.5 million.

The legislation mirrored closely the spending levels proposed by the House Foreign Operations Subcommittee last summer. (See this page in the Armenian Reporter for July 17, 2008.)

There is also substantial cut in Millennium Challenge Corporation programs, set at $875 million, down from $1.35 billion requested by the Bush administration.

Reports review Armenia’s post-election crisis

Allegations of misconduct by Armenia's law-enforcement agencies during post-electoral collisions last year should be thoroughly investigated, the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged as part of a detailed study released on February 25. The watchdog also called on the United States and the European Union to make their engagement with Armenia contingent on such an investigation.

The 64-page HRW report, "Democracy on Rocky Ground: Armenia's Disputed 2008 Presidential Election, Post-Election Violence, and the One-Sided Pursuit of Accountability," is perhaps the most comprehensive available account of Armenia's latest post-election crisis.

The study is based on interviews with 80 witnesses, participants, and victims of the March 1-2 clashes in Yerevan, conducted in March and April last year.

Also released on February 25 was the State Department's annual study of human rights practices worldwide. Its Armenia chapter, in addition to compiling human rights issues throughout 2008, retained a controversial reference to the Armenian republic of Nagorno-Karabakh as a "region of Azerbaijan."

There were community and congressional complaints when the reference was first introduced into the report in 2006. State Department officials claimed at the time the reference did not signal a change in U.S. policy. There was no public reaction when the reference was repeated last year.

Expert recommends change of rhetoric on Karabakh

"Both internationally and locally, the language used about the [Karabakh] dispute needs to change for progress to be made" in the peace process, the leading Western expert on the conflict Thomas de Waal argued in a paper for the Conciliation Resources, a British charity.

The 20-page paper titled, "The Karabakh Trap: Dangers and dilemmas of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict," released online on February 24, provides a review of the status quo in the Armenian-Azerbaijani standoff and outlines potential future scenarios.

As immediate steps, Mr. de Waal recommends "less use by international officials of formulas about ‘territorial integrity' and "self-determination' which obscure more than they reveal" about the conflict; he also urges "an end to the talk of war" by Azerbaijan and a distinction between the rights of Karabakh Armenians and Armenian-controlled former Azerbaijani-populated areas.

"On both sides, [there is a need for] mention of regret for the shared tragedy of war, of the deep common culture and of the necessity and value of living together as neighbours and partners in the future," the expert concludes.

Mr. de Waal is author of Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War, the only thorough study of the conflict available in English, released as a book in 2003.

Polls note Muslim suspicion of U.S., worldwide religiosity

Most Muslims oppose terrorist attacks against civilians but are also suspicious of the United States and endorse the al Qaida objective of removing American military bases from the Middle East, according to surveys conducted last year and released on February 25.

The World Public Opinion poll found that a significant number of respondents in eight Muslim countries studied support attacks on U.S. military forces deployed in the Middle East. While majorities hold a negative view of Osama bin Laden and al Qaida, they also believe that Islamist groups should be allowed to participate in the political process.

In Turkey, 87 percent of respondents believed the United States intends to "weaken and divide" Muslims and 77 percent thought the U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf was a "bad idea." Turks were split on attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, with 40 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving of such attacks.

In Azerbaijan, 67 percent of respondents believed the U.S. goal was to undermine Muslims and 66 percent called U.S. military presence a "bad idea." Nevertheless, fully 76 percent of Azerbaijanis also opposed attacks on U.S.-led forces in Iraq. (Azerbaijan was the only country included in the survey to have had a contingent in Iraq until last year.)

In a separate Gallup poll of worldwide religiosity released on February 9, Azerbaijan was determined to be the least religious majority-Muslim country in the world. Only 21 percent of Azerbaijanis surveyed responded affirmatively when asked if religion was an important part of their life.

By contrast, 75 percent of Georgians and 70 percent of Armenians said they were religious. In the United States two-thirds of respondents described themselves as religious. Egypt, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, topped the ranks of the most religious countries worldwide.

Briefly: MCC cut proposed, U.S. debt forgiveness proposal, Armenia vs. Georgia at UN GA, Turkish lobby vs. Genocide resolution

First published in May 24, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Senator proposes Millennium Challenge program cut

An amendment to Fiscal Year 2008 and 2009 U.S. foreign assistance would reallocate $225 million in funds set aside for but still unspent by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) to other foreign aid programs, the amendment’s sponsor Sen. Judd Gregg (R.-N.H.) initially reported on May 15.

The amendment has since passed as part of the Senate spending bill on May 20 and will next be considered in a conference with the House appropriators.

Sen. Gregg, who is ranking member (most senior GOP senator) on the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, proposed to spend the funds for alleviating the Burma cyclone disaster as well as food aid programs elsewhere, to address rising prices.

Last June, Sen. Gregg already succeeded in cutting MCC’s FY 2008 budget to $1.2 billion from $1.4 billion, reallocating the difference to military aid for Jordan. That came on top of the Senate Democrats’ cut of the original Bush Administration request of $3 billion for MCC.

It is so far unclear whether MCC’s Armenia program, valued at $236 million over five years, will be in any way affected. Armenia’s eligibility for the program has received additional scrutiny following the recent post-election crisis.

Since its establishment earlier in the Bush Administration, MCC has consistently received larger congressional allocation than it has been able to expend, because it employed a stricter eligibility criteria for qualification than have other U.S. aid programs in the past.

Armenia left out of new debt relief program

Because of its improved economic performance, Armenia was left out of the new congressional proposal to forgive the debt of lower-income countries.

The Jubilee Act for Responsible Lending and Expanded Debt Cancellation of 2007 (H.R. 2634/S. 2166) would make several dozen countries in the lower and lowermiddle income category, including Georgia, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, eligible for partial or full foreign debt cancellation.

The act has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be considered by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this month. The country qualifications are based on the World Bank’s lending category criteria.

Although Armenia and 14 other countries (including Azerbaijan, India, and Pakistan, among others) are also in the lower-middle income category, because of their somewhat higher incomes they receive World Bank assistance through both the International Development Agency (IDA) and other programs (the so-called “Blend”
category), making them ineligible for debt relief under this legislation.

According to sources familiar with the developments, last month a leading member of the congressional Armenian Caucus sought to amend the criteria to include Armenia, but since the change would make large debtors like India and Pakistan also eligible, the amendment did not succeed.

Armenia’s foreign debt amounted to $1.45 billion at the end of 2007.

UN General Assembly passes pro-Georgia resolution on Abkhazia

The General Assembly of the United Nations on May 16 voted 14-11 to pass a Georgia-sponsored nonbinding resolution affirming its claims on the breakaway and de facto independent republic of Abkhazia. Fully 105 countries abstained, and the rest did not vote.

The vote came two months after the General Assembly passed an Azerbaijan-sponsored resolution on Karabakh. In that vote Georgia sided with Azerbaijan, even though the three leading mediators in the Karabakh peace process, France, Russia and the United States, voted against the resolution.

In the May 16 vote, Armenia in turn sided with Russia, voting against the Georgian proposal.

Georgia was backed by the United States, Sweden, 10 eastern European states, as well as Azerbaijan. Most Western European states, as well as Turkey, abstained.

According to the UN news release, Armenia’s representative argued against the draft, saying that it focused on consequences of the conflict rather than addressing the core issues and was thus counterproductive to the conflict-resolution process.

A spokesperson for the Georgian Embassy in Armenia, Georgi Saganelidze, revealed on May 6 that Georgia had actively lobbied Armenia not to vote against the resolution. According to the Mediamax news agency, Mr. Saganelidze defended Georgia’s vote in favor of Azerbaijan, but still expected Armenia to continue to take a more neutral position on the Abkhazia issue, suggesting that a “no” vote could have consequences for bilateral relations.

Turkish lobby continues to target Genocide resolution

Pro-Turkey lobby groups remain focused on the congressional proposal affirming the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide. In a Washington conference on U.S.-Turkey relations held on May 16, the Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (TUSIAD), an influential business lobby, released an analysis it funded challenging the substance of the congressional resolution, Turkish media reported.

House Resolution 106, backed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D.-Md.) passed the Foreign Affairs Committee last October but has remained stalled in the House because of opposition from the Bush Administration and from several key Democrats in Congress.

The TUSIAD-sponsored analysis was prepared by David Saltzman of the Washington-based
Saltzman and Evinch LLP, the Turkish government’s veteran legal aides.

Also on May 19, Turkey’s ambassador to the U.S., Nabi Sensoy, discussed U.S.-Turkish cooperation at a session held on Capitol Hill. In recent months, events on U.S.-Turkish relations have taken place on nearly a weekly basis, suggesting a concerted public relations campaign by Turkey.

Briefly: Army Day in DC; Bush gives weight to Edmonds vs. Turkey in nuclear deal, proposes FY09 budget, Congress mostly mum on anti-Armenian vandalism

This was first published in February 9, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Inset: Armenian Army Day in Washington

More than a hundred guests, mostly U.S. civilian and military officials and foreign
defense attachés attended the annual Armenian Armed Forces Day at the
Armenian Embassy in Washington on Jan. 31. Pictured: World War II, Korea,
and Vietnam veteran and U.S. Army Col. (ret.) George Juskalian (seated) with
Armenia’s Defense Attaché Col. Armen Sargsyan (standing on right) and Armenian
Defense Ministry public affairs officer Capt. Hayk Markosyan.

President Bush OK’s nuclear deal with Turkey, cites earlier proliferation concerns

President George W. Bush approved last month the July 2000 “Agreement for Cooperation between the United States of America and the Republic of Turkey Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy,” and has transmitted it to Congress for ratification.

According to January 23 press release from the White House, Mr. Bush argued that the agreement would serve as “a strong incentive” for U.S.–Turkish relations and “provide the necessary legal framework for U.S. industry to make nuclear exports to Turkey’s planned civil nuclear sector.” The agreement would not allow transfers of “sensitive” nuclear technology or data.

The presidential message indirectly gives further weight to allegations made by former Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) translator Sibel Edmonds, most recently
published in The Times of London (see this page in the February 2 Armenian Reporter).

The message says that then-president Bill Clinton first authorized the agreement shortly before its signing in July 2000, but that “immediately after signature, U.S. agencies received information. . . implicating Turkish private entities in certain activities directly relating to nuclear proliferation” and the agreement therefore was not submitted to Congress.

The message further noted that the Bush administration has now evaluated the “actions taken by the Turkish government to address the proliferation activities of certain Turkish entities (once officials of the U.S. Government brought them to the Turkish government’s attention)” and found that “the pertinent issues have been sufficiently resolved and that there is a sufficient basis . . . to proceed with congressional review of the Agreement.”

Turkey suspended its nuclear energy program just days after the July 2000 determination, but has recently renewed its interest.

Last month, Energy Minister Hilmi Guler announced plans to conclude by next June an international tender to build a nuclear power plant. According to Turkish media, companies from Canada, France, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States are expected to bid.

President Bush’s decision came just weeks after his talks with visiting Turkish president Abdullah Gul, who was accompanied by Mr. Guler.

Administration again requests cut in aid to Armenia

President Bush sent his more than $3 trillion budget request to Congress this week. In it, he requested a further aid cut to Armenia, no funds for Nagorno-Karabakh, and more military assistance to Azerbaijan.

The administration’s draft for the Fiscal Year 2009 budget, which is due to be scrutinized by congressional appropriators later this year, requested $24 million in economic and $3.3 million in military aid to Armenia, as well as $3.9 million in military aid to Azerbaijan. (Armenia is also a recipient of a separate $235 million Millennium Challenge Assistance program.)

The administration also proposed $52 million to Georgia and nearly $20 million to Azerbaijan, levels virtually unchanged from what Congress approved last year. In Fiscal Year 2008 Congress approved $58.5 million in economic assistance to Armenia and $3 million in military aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan each.

The administration further revealed that in spite of congressional allocation that called for parity in military aid, particularly under International Military Education and Training, the United States in fact provided $952,000 to Azerbaijan and
only $286,000 to Armenia in FY2008.

Armenian-American organizations expressed opposition to the proposed cuts.

“Given Azerbaijan’s increased war rhetoric, I have strong concerns with giving any military aid to Azerbaijan, and we definitely should not give them more than we’re providing Armenia,” senior congressional appropriator Joe Knollenberg (R.-Mich.) was quoted as saying on February 4 by the Armenian Assembly of America. He is co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues.

“I will work with my colleagues to ensure that Armenia has the resources needed to continue to strengthen its democracy as well as ensure its security,” Mr. Knollenberg added.

Congress to condemn construction at historic cemetery in Lithuania

The House Foreign Affairs Committee will next week consider a resolution that reaffirms “the U.S. commitment to preservation of religious and cultural sites and
condemning instances where sites are desecrated.” House Resolution 255 is co-sponsored by the committee’s ranking member Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R.-Fla.), Reps. Joe
Crowley (D.-N.Y.) and Michael Ferguson (R.-N.J.) (all three are Armenian caucus members) and is expected to be marked up on February 14.

The proposed resolution singles out continued construction within the boundaries of a historic Jewish cemetery (13th to early 19th century) in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius and warns that unless construction is immediately stopped by the Lithuanian government, “it will jeopardize its important relationship with the United States and its standing in the international community.”

While individual members of Congress, particularly Armenian Caucus co-chair Frank Pallone, Jr. (D.-N.J.) have spoken out about the destruction of historic Armenian
cemeteries in Azerbaijan, no congressional legislation followed.

And there has so far been little or no reaction to the ongoing construction over Baku’s Armenian cemetery, where many Russians, Jews, and Azerbaijanis are also buried.

ANCA to co-sponsor congressional advocacy campaign next month

The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) announced on February 7 that together with the Genocide Intervention Network (GI-Net) it will co-sponsor Capitol
Hill advocacy days between from March 12 to 14.

The two organizations partnered for a similar initiative last year “to encourage U.S. action to stop the genocide in Darfur, the adoption of the Armenian Genocide resolution (S.Res.106 / H.Res.106), and the strengthening of U.S. resolve to act against all instances of genocide.”

connect: http://www.anca.org/stopgenocide

Group campaigns for environment in Armenia

Concerns over threats to the environment and public health were the focus of a public lecture organized by the Armenian Environmental Network (AEN) and held at
the World Bank on February 6.

Johns Hopkins University professor George Jakab and Dr. Charles Dunlap of the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation discussed the results of their fieldwork in Armenia and criticized lack of quick government response to environmental and health risks to the public.

The speakers noted dangerously high levels of lead found in Yerevan fountains, in which children often swim, as well as three of the Lake Sevan beaches. The contamination is linked to the tourist infrastructure that has sprung up around the lake in recent years.

AEN Director Ursula Kazarian said that public health was not a hot enough topic to attract adequate funding. “The government does not want to put up up-front costs even though resolving these [public health] problems will save them money in the long run,” she said.

AEN was set up last year to promote environmental awareness throughout the diaspora.
connect: www.armenvironment.net

—Alexa Millinger contributed to this week’s column