Erdogan, Saakashvili at UN; More U.S. radar in Caucasus talk; Burns / Merry on Karabakh;

This was first published in the September 26, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan


Foreign leaders arrive in New York for annual meetings

The presidents of Georgia, Iran, and Russia and the prime minister of Turkey were among dozens of foreign leaders in attendance at the annual United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York this week. Armenia and Azerbaijan dispatched their foreign ministers.

In a talk at Princeton University on September 23, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to submit the Armenia-
Turkey protocols for ratification on October 10–11, “if we don’t see prejudice or some domestic political considerations at play.” (It is unclear whether the Turkish parliament normally meets on the weekend, with October 10 and 11 being Saturday and Sunday.)

Mr. Erdogan was also due to raise Armenian issues in a meeting with President Barack Obama at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh on September 25, six months after Mr. Obama publicly urged Turkey to come to terms with its past and to normalize relations with Armenia in an expeditious manner.

But before that meeting, Mr. Erdogan’s delegation reportedly scuffled with Mr. Obama’s security detail as their paths crossed at the Clinton Global Initiative offices in Manhattan, with the Turkish leader himself reportedly getting physically involved.

“A foreign delegation got confused and were trying to enter the president’s departure tent and didn’t understand the verbal instructions being given. They had to be physically restrained,” a spokesperson for the Secret Service told the Washington Times, whose correspondent witnessed the incident.

A frequent visitor to the United States in the past, Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili made his first public trip to New York since the August 2008 war over South Ossetia.

Mr. Saakashvili met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on September 21. Promised continued diplomatic support on South Ossetia and Abkhazia at that meeting, Mr. Saakashvili was also urged to remain patient with their de-facto annexation by Russia.

Separately, U.S. and Georgian officials were due to discuss potential resettlement of terrorism suspects released from the military prison in Guantanamo in Georgia, Civil.ge reported.

Pentagon wants anti-Iran radar in the Caucasus

A senior U.S. military official said that an American early-warning radar (referred to as X-Band radar) aimed at missiles potentially launched from Iran was “probably more likely to be in the Caucasus,” a region that is adjacent to Iran, rather than in European countries that are further away.

Vice-chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright made the comment during a September 17 Pentagon press conference intended to explain the cancellation of U.S. plans for missile and radar deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Chief of Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolay Makarov was quick to respond. He said that Russia would view a U.S. radar in the Caucasus “negatively” unless Russia and the United States were “to build it jointly.”

The United States first expressed interest in a Caucasus radar in March 2007, when the director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency at the time, Gen. Henry Obering, floated the idea of a “mobile antimissile radar” in the Caucasus to monitor Iran; a U.S. official soon after denied there were any deployment plans.

In June 2007, Russian leader Vladimir Putin suggested the United States could receive information gathered by a Russian early warning radar base in Azerbaijan and other Russian facilities there instead of unilaterally deploying new radars. The Bush administration took interest in the offer, but U.S. officials argued that data supplied by Russia could not be a substitute for a U.S.-run missile defense system.

The United States has placed X-Band radars around the world, including one in Israel last year, marking the first foreign military deployment in Israel since its independence.

Of the three Caucasus states, only Georgia publicly welcomed the potential U.S. radar deployment, Eurasianet.org reported on September 18.

The same day, Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister Araz Azimov said that U.S. officials did not raise the issue during his Washington visit last week, Azerbaijani media reported.

U.S. sees “clear outline” for Karabakh peace, “tangible results” in weeks

“We hope that the recent progress made in talks between Presidents Aliyev and Sargsian will lead to tangible results when they meet next month,” U.S. Undersecretary of State Bill Burns said in prepared remarks delivered on September 18 at an event co-sponsored by Georgetown University and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Washington.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and his Armenian counterpart Serge Sargsian are expected to attend the next Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moldova on October 8-9.

The State Department’s most senior diplomat went on to note, “The outline of a possible settlement has been clear for some time, though as with all things, the devil lies in the details and further discussions will be needed to satisfy the concerns of both sides.”

Mr. Burns’ remarks appeared to be carefully calibrated and did not include any reference to U.S. recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Starting in August 2008, former U.S. negotiator for Karabakh Matt Bryza used language that emphasized Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity as the starting point of a settlement.

Writing earlier this year, a former official at the State and Defense Departments, Wayne Merry, also suggested, “the outlines of a settlement have been clear for fifteen years”; he at the same time offered a more concrete formula for resolution that would “reflect both the realities of war and the needs of peace.”

“These realities transcend the standard rhetoric of ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity’ as well as that of ‘national self-determination,’” Mr. Merry argued in his paper “Karabakh: Is war inevitable?”

“In a settlement, Armenia will get Karabakh and a land corridor to Armenia, while Azerbaijan gets back the lowland surrounding territories. This is not about justice, nor right and wrong, but is the inescapable and necessary formula for peace.”

“To be sure, there are a multitude of details (where the devil always lurks) and implementation problems (where the costs for outside powers will be substantial),” Mr. Merry concluded.

Former Senator counsels patience in U.S. relations with ex-USSR

The United States should be more respectful of other countries’ sensitivities, former Senator Chuck Hagel advised, particularly as political and economic power becomes more diffused around the world and the United States is less capable of accomplishing its goals singlehandedly.

Mr. Hagel spoke at a Georgetown University event sponsored by the Azerbaijani Embassy on September 18. The former Republican senator from Nebraska (1997–2009) was a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and a leading Senate voice on U.S. policy in the former Soviet areas.

The former senator counseled patience and “careful expectations” when dealing with former Soviet countries that have been “thrown into a new situation” in the last two decades.

He sidestepped more controversial issues such as Azerbaijan’s domestic politics and the Karabakh conflict, while also withholding the sort of praise for the sponsoring government that is frequently heard at such Washington events.

Mr. Hagel noted that the importance of the U.S. relationship with Azerbaijan, “a little country,” was first of all a function of it bordering on several larger countries such as Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

Earlier this year, Mr. Hagel was considered a candidate for a cabinet secretary post in the Obama administration. He is currently a professor at Georgetown and chairs the Atlantic Council of the United States, a group that promotes cooperation among NATO members and partners.

Azerbaijani official assails U.S. policies in “friendly talk”

A senior Azerbaijani official dismissed U.S. criticism of his government’s treatment of political opponents, restrictions on mass media and nongovernmental groups, and corruption, pointing to what he argued were similar restrictions or greater problems in the United States.

Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov also demanded that Washington do more to stimulate Azerbaijan’s motivation to cooperate with the United States.

In what he described as a “friendly talk,” Mr. Azimov recalled the scandal at the former Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and the mistreatment of terrorism suspects at the U.S. military detention facility at Guantanamo, and suggested that the United States had not fully investigated human-rights violations there. He further described U.S. military presence in Afghanistan as a “mess” and likened it to the ill-fated Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979–89.

Mr. Azimov also justified the recent ban on U.S.- and British-funded broadcasts in Azerbaijan, claiming that the United States “would not allow” such broadcasters to use its national frequencies. (In fact, a number of foreign-funded media are available on national frequencies in the United States.)

The Azerbaijani official went on to propose that he “could not measure corruption” and therefore could not judge whether there was more corruption in the United States or Azerbaijan.

Discussing the history of U.S.-Azerbaijan engagement, Mr. Azimov described the United States as “more clumsy than it could be.” He noted that not a single U.S. secretary of state had visited Azerbaijan since the “one-hour visit” by Jim Baker in 1992.

“The time which was necessary for the [Obama administration] to get prepared has elapsed,” he stressed. “We expect high[-level] visits, . . . we expect statements made publicly on U.S. strategy for the Caucasus,” as well as U.S.-Russia cooperation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

Speaking on September 18 at the Georgetown University conference sponsored by the Azerbaijani Embassy, Mr. Azimov also took time to list what Azerbaijan believes are its contributions to the world civilization and the West.

Mr. Azimov arrived in Washington for the annual security dialogue meetings with U.S. officials. A deputy foreign minister managing Azerbaijan’s relations with the West, Mr. Azimov has worked in the same capacity under four different ministers since 1994.

Biden in Tbilisi, adds heroic flair to night at restaurant

In address to the Georgian Parliament earlier today, Vice President Joe Biden recalled that last August he “sat on a rooftop of a restaurant with President Saakashvili, as sound of artillery fire and fighter aircraft punctuated the night.”

U.S. Embassy in Georgia photo.

Biden in fact visited Tbilisi on August 17, 2008 almost a week after military operations were over. He is pictured with Georgian president and his wife at the time (and apparently on same rooftop).

Pelosi on Gen. res., Hastert hired by Turks, ICG report, Georgian FM in DC

This was first published in April 18, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Speaker Pelosi says she’s committed to Armenian Genocide affirmation

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) reiterated her support for affirmation of the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) reported.

In an April 14 letter to her constituents in California's 8th district, Speaker Pelosi noted that she "will continue to support official recognition of the Armenian genocide."

"A grave injustice was committed and the fact that our nation is not officially recognizing these crimes as genocide is a disappointment," Speaker Pelosi was quoted as saying.

The nonbinding House Resolution 252 (H. Res. 252), introduced last month, as of this week had the support of 94 members, somewhat less support than its predecessor resolution - H. Res. 106 - had two years ago in the previous Congress.

H. Res. 252 has been referred to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, chaired by another supporter of Armenian Genocide affirmation, Rep. Howard Berman (D.-Calif.). But it remains unclear when it might be considered by the Committee.

The Obama Administration has not yet taken a public position on H. Res. 252.

Ex-Speaker Hastert hired by Turkish lobby

The firm of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R.-Ill.) will receive $35,000 a month to lobby for the Turkish government, the Hill newspaper reported on April 10 citing public filings made to the Department of Justice as part of the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA).

Mr. Hastert was the Speaker of the House of Representatives between 1998 and 2006. In 2000, Mr. Hastert initially pledged to bring an Armenian Genocide resolution to a House vote after it passed in committee. Just as the resolution was to come to a vote - and pass - he deferred to the Clinton administration, and pulled the resolution off the agenda.

In August 2005, Vanity Fair magazine published a story referring to a federal investigation that looked into payments that Turkish diplomats allegedly discussed making to then-Speaker Hastert and others in U.S. government in an effort to prevent the Genocide resolution from passing in 2000.

While the speaker's staff denied any knowledge of the matter, in December 2005 Mr. Hastert shed himself of $70,000 in "tainted" campaign contributions, directing them to an unspecified charity, the Village Voice reported at the time.

Last February, Mr. Hastert's firm Dickstein Shapiro agreed to take on a sub-contract of Turkey's main government lobby DLA Piper, which is in turn led by former Democratic and Republican House leaders, Dick Gephardt (D.-Mo.) and Dick Armey (R.-Tex.)

DLA-Piper took up the main Turkey contract in May 2007, replacing the lobby of another former senior member of Congress, Bob Livingston, a Republican from Louisiana, who led the Turkish lobbying effort for nearly a decade before that, before Democrats swept the congressional election.

Crisis Group issues report on Armenia-Turkey issues

Armenia, the United States, and European and other countries should avoid "statements or international actions relating to [Armenian] genocide recognition that could inflame Turkish public opinion," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) recommended this week.

The 44-page report, "Armenia and Turkey: Opening Minds, Opening Borders," released on April 14, also recommended that Turkey de-link normalization of relations with Armenia from its preconditions related to the Karabakh conflict.

Last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey still insists on such preconditions, Agence France Presse reported, referring to the Anatolia news agency.

For weeks before President Barack Obama's trip to Turkey on April 5-7, Turkish officials have sought to portray Armenia-Turkey talks as nearing a breakthrough that could be upset should Mr. Obama deliver on his pre-election pledge to recognize the Armenian Genocide.

After Mr. Obama avoided the use of the genocide term while discussing Armenian issues in Turkey, Turkish leaders began to suggest that a breakthrough with Armenia was not that close after all.

A source familiar with the ICG report's preparation told the Armenian Reporter that ICG also waited to hear the words used by Mr. Obama on the subject of the Armenian Genocide. According to the source, the group delayed the release of the report to make sure it was aligned to the wording used by Mr. Obama.

ICG's proposals tend to be in line with policies of the United States and European Union.

Coming up: Armenian Genocide commemorative events in Washington

The co-chairs of the House Armenian Issues Caucus, Reps. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D.-N.J.), and Mark Kirk (R.-Ill.), on April 22 will host the annual congressional commemoration of the Armenian Genocide. The event traditionally brings together hundreds of Armenian-Americans and friends, who have an opportunity to meet and hear from members of Congress on Armenian issues.

The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) will host its third annual "End the Cycle of Genocide: Grassroots Capitol Campaign," between April 22 and 24. The campaign includes visits to offices of the members of Congress to discuss the importance of genocide affirmation.

The Armenian Youth Federation (AYF) will hold its annual protest outside the Turkish Embassy in the afternoon of April 24. Later the same afternoon the Armenian Embassy will host its annual wreath-laying and commemorative event.

Additionally, on April 23, the Armenian Students' Network will host a cultural event at George Washington University. On April 25, The Georgetown Boys: A Musical Tribute to Genocide Survival, performed by Hamazkayin, will be featured at the John F. Kennedy Center in Washington.

U.S. indicates neutrality on Georgia standoff

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met visiting Georgian foreign minister Grigol Vashadze on April 14 to reiterate "U.S. support for Georgian independence and democracy," but she did not openly support President Mikheil Saakashvili, currently under siege by his domestic opposition.

Mr. Vashadze reportedly sought assurances that the Obama administration would continue to consider Georgian concerns as it sought to expand relations with Russia, The AP reported the same day.

Mrs. Clinton called the Georgian domestic confrontation "a very challenging time in the country's young democratic history." Protests in Tbilisi entered their second week, but appeared to be running out of steam, and the opposition showed signs of fracturing.

Opposition leaders, including several political figures previously aligned with Mr. Saakashvili, have charged the incumbent with authoritarianism and incompetence. Mr. Saakashvili offered to share power with the opposition, but his offer has been rejected.

Like Mr. Saakashvili, his political opponents support Georgia's accession to the U.S.-led NATO alliance. NATO announced on April 15 plans to hold a military exercise in Georgia this May, a move that Russia's envoy to NATO protested, requesting it be postponed.

Bush goodbye, DC ratings and U.S.-Georgia charter

This was first published in January 17, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Bush thanks Armenia for Iraq war role

U.S. President George W. Bush thanks Iraq coalition countries in a speech at U.S. Central Command headquarters, May 1, 2007. The Armenian flag is next to the U.S.flag. White House photo

President George W. Bush expressed the "deep gratitude of the United States" for Armenia's contribution to the U.S.-led Iraq coalition in a letter released by the office of Armenia's President Serge Sargsian on January 13.

The letter noted "particular appreciation for the transportation and convoy security, de-mining, and medical support" that the 46-person Armenian peacekeeping unit provided.

Armenia did not support the U.S. military invasion of Iraq in 2003, but soon after, the Armenian government agreed to join the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq with a peacekeeping unit. The deployment went ahead despite concerns that the Iraqi-Armenian community, numbering tens of thousands, could be targeted as a result.

In the period of deployment from early 2005 until late 2008, several hundred Armenian military men served in Iraq, with one officer seriously wounded in action.

Mr. Bush's letter said also that "the United States looks forward to pursuing further cooperation with Armenia on other common interests within the South Caucasus region and around the world."

The letter was the second known communication from President Bush to President Sargsian since the Armenian president's election in February. Last September, while presenting her credentials to Mr. Sargsian, U.S. ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch transmitted President Bush's message of congratulations on Armenia's Independence Day.

President Bush spent the last weeks of his presidency defending his record amid the worsening global economic crisis and continuing U.S. occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq. He also thanked foreign leaders who were his closest allies and otherwise assisted U.S. efforts worldwide.

On January 14, President Bush awarded the highest U.S. civilian award, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, to former British prime minister Tony Blair, the former Australian prime minister, and the president of Colombia.

Ratings: Armenia remains economically liberal, “partly free” politically

Two Washington think tanks this week issued annual reports comparing the countries of the world. Armenia's ranking in both reports counts toward its continued eligibility for U.S. Millennium Challenge grants.

The "Economic Freedom Index" jointly prepared by the Wall Street Journal and the Heritage Foundation noted improvements in Armenia in the categories of freedom from corruption, government size, business, trade and fiscal freedom; it reported a deterioration in the monetary and labor categories. Overall, Armenia received the same score it had last year and was ranked 31st in the world, once again placing ahead of its neighborhood and many European Union countries.

Among others in the Index, Georgia was 32nd, Israel 42nd, Latvia 45th, France 64th, Turkey 75th, Azerbaijan 91st, Russia 146th, and Iran 168th. Once again, the list was topped by Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, and the United States.

The "Freedom in the World" ranking put together by Freedom House, released on January 12, reported a global "retreat" for freedom for a third consecutive year.

In Armenia the report noted a decline in political freedoms "because of obstacles placed in the way of the political opposition during the presidential election, as well as the use of violence to disperse opposition protesters and the incarceration of over 100 people after the voting."

Setbacks were also recorded in Georgia, Moldova, and Kyrgyzstan, which, like Armenia, were ranked "partly free." Ukraine was the only former Soviet republic described as free, while all others, including Russia and Azerbaijan, were rated "not free."

In addition, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic retained its "partly free" rating, while Abkhazia and South Ossetia - now bound by security treaties to Russia - were both ranked as "not free."

U.S. pledges support for Georgia “to defeat threats”

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze of Georgia signing a Strategic Partnership Charter on January 9. Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and recently appointed Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze of Georgia signed a Strategic Partnership Charter on January 9 outlining a mutual interest in bilateral cooperation on military, political, economic, and humanitarian issues.

The document points to a "vital" U.S. interest "in a strong, independent, sovereign, unified, and democratic Georgia, capable of responsible self-defense" and promises "to expand the scope of [U.S.-Georgia] defense and security and cooperation programs to defeat threats" that Georgia faces. The charter also refers to Georgia's function as conduit for Caspian oil and gas to Europe.

Last month, the United States signed a similar charter with Ukraine. Earlier in 2008, the United States lobbied for both Ukraine and Georgia to formally begin the process of joining the U.S.-led NATO alliance.

The Bush administration moved to sign charters with both countries on a bilateral basis after European allies declined to support NATO arrangements they see as unnecessarily irritating to Russia.

Discussing the charter in Tbilisi on January 12, Mr. Vashadze described it as "yet another nail in the coffin, which will bury Russia's goals," Civil.ge reported. According to the Georgian foreign minister these goals include turning Georgia into a source of "instability" and "lawlessness."

There has been little Russian reaction to the signing. The official ITAR-TASS news agency cited an anonymous Russian Foreign Ministry source that dismissed the charter as a "legally non-binding . . . collection of propagandistic clichés."

MCC-Armenia; U.S.-Georgia charter; Russians in the Americas; OPEC-FSU oil production cut

First published in December 20 2008 www.reporter.am

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. agency wants democratic reforms stepped up in Armenia

John Danilovich on December 12. Armenian Reporter photo.

The U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) "reiterated its concerns about the status of democratic governance" in Armenia, according to MCC's statement following its board meeting on December 11. Although Armenia has remained eligible for U.S. aid under the program's guidelines, the volume of assistance has been restricted throughout 2008 after the State Department blamed the government for post-election violence.

In all, MCC allocated $28 million to Armenia in the first two years of the five-year $235 million compact aimed at reducing rural poverty through the construction of roads and irrigation systems. According to MCC's Armenia office, cited by Regnum news agency, its first quarter 2009 expenses will be $7 million.

By contrast, in 2006-2008 the United States allocated $213 million of $295 million of the Georgia compact, which is now on track for completion by next September. Earlier this year, MCC allocated an additional $100 million to Georgia as part of a $1 billion U.S. aid package to Georgia promised by the Bush administration following the August war with Russia.

With a political transition underway in Washington, a new MCC board with members of the Obama administration will meet in March to pick a new chief executive officer and "again review Armenia's performance and examine continued collaboration with the country during its March meeting."

The MCC board is chaired by the Secretary of State and includes other cabinet members and nongovernmental representatives.

In his farewell briefing on December 12, MCC's outgoing CEO, Ambassador John Danilovich, hinted at unresolved issues with Armenia.

"We have a good working relationship with Armenia," he said in response to a question posed by the Armenian Reporter. But "the government of the newly elected president [Serge] Sargsian needs to reassess their commitments to democratic principles in light of some election matters which occurred at the time of the election now about nine months ago."

While Ambassador Danilovich sounded positive that funding for MCC's suspended road project "should resume in March" and he noted that "the [Armenian] government has embarked on a number of reform efforts," the MCC board members "very much want the government of Armenia to continue with and increase the speed with the substance of those reforms," both for continuation of the current program and "also for the eventual possibility of future engagement with MCC" with a second compact.

U.S. developing security pact with Georgia

U.S. and Georgian officials are discussing a security agreement along the lines of the 1998 U.S.-Baltic charter, according to a RFE/RL report on December 18. The charter became a precursor to the Baltic states' membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2004.

Georgian officials said that talks over the agreement are "intensive," suggesting an agreement may be reached even before the Bush administration leaves office.

The incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee John Kerry (D.-Mass.) and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza were both in Georgia in recent weeks.

Also on December 18, the New York Times published portions of leaked classified U.S. military assessment of the Georgian army ordered following the August war with Russia and conducted in October and November.

According to the report, in spite of 10 years of U.S. aid and several years of budget allocations of nearly $1 billion a year, the Georgian military remains "substandard" and "mismanaged."

"Their command and control is a mess [and] they have no ability to process and analyze strategic information and provide it to decision makers in a systematic way," the newspaper quoted an anonymous U.S. officer as saying.

In tit-for-tat with U.S., Russia seeks sphere of influence in the Americas

Russian Navy destroyer Admiral Chabanenko. This vessel this week delivered humanitarian aid to Nicaragua. Royal Navy photo.

Russian naval vessels delivered humanitarian aid to Nicaragua last week, shortly after Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev arrived to observe joint Russian-Venezuelan military exercises and contemplated reviving a Cold War-era Russian radar during a visit to Cuba.

Aid to Nicaragua arrived just as the United States suspended its Millennium Challenge Corporation program there, citing President Daniel Ortega's democratic shortfalls. (In the 1980s the United States funded a guerilla war against Mr. Ortega, who was then voted out in 1990, only to stage a successful political comeback in 2006.) Earlier, U.S. naval vessels were used to bring humanitarian aid to Georgia.

Mr. Ortega is planning to visit Abkhazia and South Ossetia next week.

Russian moves into Latin America are seen as paralleling those of the United States in the former Soviet republics. Mr. Medvedev declared the former Soviet space an area of Russia's "privileged interests," which itself recalls the two centuries-old Monroe Doctrine that called for exclusion of European influences and sustaining effective U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials held "strategic security discussions" in Moscow on December 15 within the framework of a declaration signed by the two countries' presidents last April, but made little headway on key sticking points such as a European missile defense system planned by the United States.

Azerbaijan, Russia cut oil output as prices fall

Azerbaijan and Russia joined with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in announcing a big cut in oil production this week, news agencies reported.

OPEC producers agreed to cut production from current levels of 27.3 million barrels a day by 2 million, while Russia and Azerbaijan said they would cut production by 300,000 barrels a day each.

The cut would represent a more than 35 percent reduction for Azerbaijan from the current production level of 840,000 barrels a day. Azerbaijani production - most by the BP-led consortium - peaked at over one million barrels earlier this year.

Oil prices have fallen from the high of $147 per barrel in July to under $40 this week.

Obama/Biden on phone; NKR Pres. in U.S.; U.S.-Armenia task force meets in DC

First published in November 22, 2008 Armenian Reporter.


Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama, Biden in telephone talks with foreign leaders

President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden called a number of "world leaders and expressed thanks and appreciation for their congratulations on the election."

The presidential transition web site www.change.gov reports that on November 6, Mr. Obama took calls from leaders of close U.S. allies Australia, Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. On November 7 he spoke with leaders of Italy, Spain, Poland, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, and on November 8 with those of Russia and China.

The president-elect phoned Presidents Abdullah Gül of Turkey and Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, as well as the Philippines president on November 17; the presidents of Colombia, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa, and United Nations secretary general on November 18; and the presidents of Argentina, Chile, Kazakhstan, and Palestine, and the Irish Prime Minister, on November 19.

No details of conversations were reported by the president-elect, but Mr. Saakashvili's office reported that "the U.S. President-elect expressed his unconditional support to the territorial integrity of Georgia and focused on the importance of continuation of the ongoing reforms in Georgia [and] U.S. support in this regard."

And according to Mr. Gul's office, Mr. Obama "emphasized the importance of the special relations between the two allies, Turkey and U.S." and backed Turkey's fight against Kurdish rebels.

Other calls to foreign leaders were made by Sen. Biden. On November 10 he telephoned the Israeli foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, who is likely to be the next prime minister, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and opposition leader Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu; Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown, as well as the presidents of Poland and Afghanistan and, on November 11, the king of Jordan.

And on November 17, Mr. Biden called the European Union's Javier Solana, as well as the presidents of Colombia and Georgia, the prime minister of Spain, and the foreign minister of Greece.

Karabakh president begins U.S. visit

President Bako Sahakian of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) began a 10-day working visit to the United States on November 18. Mr. Sahakian's delegation includes NKR Finance Minister Spartak Tevosian and other officials.

The trip is dedicated to the annual Thanksgiving Day telethon in support of Karabakh and Armenia organized by the Armenia Fund in Los Angeles and includes stops in Boston and New York for meetings with Armenian-American community leaders.

Since its creation in 1992, the fund has supported key transportation infrastructure in Karabakh with about $185 million spent on projects throughout Armenia.

U.S.-Armenia Task Force meets in Washington

Economic Development Minister Nerses Yeritsian led an Armenian government delegation to Washington for talks with U.S. officials from November 19 to 21.

The visit was within the regular U.S.-Armenia Task Force (USATF) mechanism and included visits with official counterparts at the Departments of State and Commerce, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation. The USATF's American co-chair is currently Daniel Rosenblum, the State Department assistance to Eurasia coordinator.

USATF was previously co-chaired by Armenia's Finance and Economy Ministers Levon Barkhudarian (1999-2000) and Vardan Khachatrian (2000-2008), and U.S. State Department Coordinators for U.S. assistance to Eurasia Bill Taylor (2000-2003) and Tom Adams (2004-2008).

Set up in 2000, USATF is an intergovernmental committee that meets twice a year to discuss U.S. assistance for Armenia's reforms and bilateral economic ties.

However, the volume of U.S. assistance to Armenia has declined from an average of $75million a year in 2004-2006 to about $50 million in 2007. Bilateral trade remained steady at an average of $125 million a year in 2004-2007, with U.S. exports to Armenia accounting for most of the turnover.

Item below was published in November 29, 2008 Armenian Reporter:

Open Sky agreement signed by Armenia and the United States
by Armen Hakobyan

Yerevan - As part of the process of authorizing direct flights between the United States and Armenia, the two countries signed an Open Sky agreement in Washington on November 21.

Artyom Movsesian, director general of Armenia's Civil Aviation Agency, who was in Washington as part of the Armenian delegation to the U.S.-Armenia Task Force (USATF), signed the agreement with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Daniel Fried.

Mr. Movsesian told the Armenian Reporter in an interview that "the agreement is fairly liberal and creates broad opportunities for cooperation with the U.S., where we have a large Armenian diaspora. Apart from that, the agreement gives aviation companies opportunities to implement flexible policies."

For actual flights to begin, Armenian and U.S. carriers must carry out feasibility studies: They must determine the aircraft they wish to use, the routes they wish to take, the frequency, and the price, Mr. Movsesian said.

On the Armenian side, the management of Armavia has stated on more than one occasion that the company is planning direct flights to Los Angeles with a refueling stop in Shannon, Ireland.

Before that can happen, however, the U.S. Federal Aviation Agency must, under the agreement, carry out studies to confirm that Armenia can fulfill flight security and aviation security demands.

Mr. Movsesian said the investigation would last at least six months. He noted that the representatives of the U.S. side have recently visited Armenia and met with him.

Fried tours region; Western aid to Georgia, Turkey wins UN bid

First published in October 25, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan and Lusine Sarkisyan

Active U.S. diplomacy continues in Eurasia

The Navy's U.S.S. Barry arrived in Georgia's port of Poti as State Department's Dan Fried touched down in the country's capital of Tbilisi.

Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried was in Armenia (Oct. 17), Georgia (Oct.18-20), and Turkey (Oct. 21) to discuss regional conflicts and bilateral relations, local news media reported. United States regional diplomacy has been stepped up significantly since Russian-Georgian fighting in August.

In meetings with Armenian leaders, Mr. Fried reportedly focused on the Karabakh peace process (see this week's top story) and Armenia's recent talks with Turkey. Mr. Fried said that a "strong, sovereign, democratic Armenia is important not just to the U.S., but to the region as well."

(In a similarly worded message, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who was in Yerevan on October 21, said Russia wants "the Armenian people to live in a strong, flourishing and stable state.")

Mr. Fried arrived in Georgia simultaneously with the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyer U.S.S. Barry, which made a "routine, friendly visit" to Georgia's Black Sea port of Poti from October 18 to 20. (Officials in Abkhazia, meanwhile, confirmed plans for a new Russian naval base at Ochamchir, just forty miles up the Black Sea coast from Poti.)

On his visit to Ankara, Mr. Fried was received with Ertu?rul Apakan, the Turkish Foreign Ministry's number-two, and at a subsequent meeting with media, the U.S. diplomat encouraged continued dialogue between Turkish and Armenian leaders.

According to the Turkish Daily News, Mr. Fried called Armenian President Serge Sargsian "courageous" for extending an invitation to his Turkish counterpart, and Turkish President Abdullah Gül "wise" for accepting the offer. "Sometimes taking risks is the highest realism," he said.

Mr. Fried also pledged continued U.S. intelligence help for Turkey's fight against Kurdish rebels, while urging more Turkish cooperation with Iraqi Kurdish leaders. Turkish forces have suffered numerous casualties in recent Kurdish attacks (see this page in the October 11 Armenian Reporter.)

Meanwhile, the top U.S. military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, assured the three Baltic republics, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania ­- which have been NATO members since 2004 - that they could count on U.S. military help should they ever come under a military attack.

Days earlier, Admiral Mullen met with Russia's General Staff Chairman General Nikolay Makarov in Finland, for what was described as "fence-mending talks."

Abkhazia, South Ossetia status talks stall; more aid pledged to Georgia

European, Georgian, Russian, and U.S. officials met in Geneva on October 15 to start discussions, in the words of the French President Nicolas Sarkozy, on the "future status" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and quickly adjourned until November, Civil.ge and others reported.

The parties reportedly disagreed on the format of talks, with breakaway republics insisting they should participate in the talks on their future, and Georgia objecting.

The cease-fire agreement negotiated between Russia and Georgia continued to largely hold, although several Russian and Georgian personnel were reported killed in various incidents.

Georgia also demanded a Russian withdrawal from parts of South Ossetia and Abkhazia that Georgia held prior to the August war. That position was supported by Dan Fried of the U.S. State Department, although he conceded that that situation could not be resolved "very easily" or "very soon." Russian officials said areas in question are parts of breakaway republics and would not be turned over.

At a "donors' conference" in Brussels on October 22, the United States confirmed it would be allocating $1 billion in aid to Georgia. Last month, the U.S. Congress appropriated about one-third of that amount for Fiscal Year 2009.

In all, pledges of $4.55 billion in grants and loans over three years were made, with bulk of the funds coming from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as the European Union (about $1 billion in grants and loans) and Japan ($200 million).

Transparency International (TI), a Berlin-based anticorruption organization, called for publication of the World Bank's needs assessment report on Georgia prepared in advance of the conference.

"Despite the centrality of the Joint Needs Assessment to the future of Georgia, its contents remain secret at the request of the Georgian government," TI Georgia said in a statement, adding that it was unclear how the money was intended to be spent.

151 countries vote Turkey into the UN Security Council

Turkey successfully concluded its five-year $50 million campaign for a two-year nonrenewable term on the United Nations Security Council, as it was voted in by 151 countries on October 17, Turkish and international news agencies reported.

There are a total of 192 countries with United Nations membership. Countries voted in secret, and because Turkey was competing against Austria (which also won a seat, with 132 votes) and Iceland (which did not, with 87 votes), few countries have made their votes public. But Turkey lobbied heavily around the world from Latin America to Africa to Pacific Island nations.

President Abdullah Gül described the vote as "a significant success that should be a source of joy to every citizen. The support given to Turkey is a reflection of the feelings of love and friendship that are felt for our nation and the trust the international community has in our state," the Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor (EDM) reported citing Turkish media on October 18.

Turkey's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Baki Ilkin reportedly broke down in tears of joy during a television interview following the vote.

Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish government's leading foreign policy advisor, said the outcome as "neither chance, nor bribery," even though Turkey spent $20 million paying off the debts of smaller nations to the United Nations.

Media watchdog: peace is good for press freedom

"It is not economic prosperity but peace that guarantees press freedom," Paris-based Reporters without Borders argues in its annual report released on October 22.

The report notes post-election setbacks in media freedom in Armenia (now ranked 102nd in the world, on par with Turkey), war-related media censorship in Georgia (now ranked 120th), as well as general malaise in Russia (141), Azerbaijan (150), and Iran (166).

Iceland, Norway, and Luxembourg are ranked as having the most liberal media environments. For the full report: http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=29031

Interview with Amb. Gilmore: U.S. will not allow a Russian sphere of influence

Ambassador Harry Gilmore: The United States will oppose a Russian sphere of influence
by Emil Sanamyan and Lusine Sarkisyan

Amb. Gilmore in his Virginia home. Armenian Reporter.

Harry Gilmore, former U.S. ambassador to Armenia (1993-95) spoke with the Armenian Reporter's Emil Sanamyan and Lusine Sarkisyan on September 16 about ongoing U.S.-Russian tension over Georgia and its implications, Turkey's position on the matter, and Armenia's latest effort to normalize relations with Turkey. Below are edited portions of that conversation.

Reporter: It seems like the Russian government is itching for some kind of a tussle with the United States. In addition to the Georgia operations, last week you saw Russia sending strategic bombers to Venezuela, and now it's sending its navy to the Caribbean.

Gilmore: Russia is being consciously more assertive. The analysis that I've seen from the people I trust most in terms of understanding Russia, from ambassadors to Russia there have been a stream of events that [aim to] defeat Russia's frustration.

I think historically Russia has a frustration of being encircled by the West and the outside world and not being a part of Western European institutions more broadly.

They particularly like to quote Winston Churchill, who at one point in the early days of the Soviet Union said he wanted to strangle the baby of Bolshevism in its cradle. I think even though the Communist period is over, the Cold War is over, I think that's still one part of Russian mentality and I think a number of events have fueled the Russian frustration about being a part of what they call the unipolar world and the desire to break out of that.

[That list of grievances includes most recently] the independence of Kosovo. [Russians] think about that as unjust action on the part of the West, and they felt that it set an unfortunate precedent; NATO expansion [into former Warsaw Pact and Soviet republics, even though] Russians felt there was an understanding that the NATO will not move eastward, particularly militarily.

They feel Russia has been taken advantage of and another aspect is the missile defense effort of the U.S. - an effort to defend against Iranian missile capabilities, but it was Poland and the Czech Republic that really bothered Russia.

I think all these things are part of the mindset, part of this clash in Georgia.

[At the same time,] I think we have a financial meltdown, a global financial crisis. Let's just say I think it's beyond the control of any one government and I think it's going to have a major impact on all of us.

What I hope is that it plays out that we all keep each other's interests in mind and Russia doesn't come off poorly, Russia doesn't suffer more.

I would like to see Russia come out of this with a deeper understanding of its connections with the global economy and need to be careful when you are such an important economic player with even brighter economic future.

Turkey and the Russia-Georgia war

Reporter: One of the striking developments last month was the Turkish government's position. On the day of Russians coming into Georgia, Turkish president Abdullah Gül was hosting the Iranian president, and talked to the Guardian about this Georgian situation being a lesson to the U.S. that it's not a unipolar situation any more, that it's a multipolar world now.

Considering this position, would it be valid to say that the U.S.-Turkish alliance no longer exists and that NATO membership no longer matters that much?

Gilmore: I don't think it's quite that traumatic, but certainly NATO has changed greatly: it's bigger, and the original core members of NATO now are only one piece of NATO. But I don't think NATO is out of business by any means.

The influence of NATO with regard to Georgia and Ukraine is something we need to watch very carefully because the question is will there be a consensus in NATO on whether to offer Georgia and Ukraine closer ties with NATO. I think that NATO has not gotten a consensus on that.

Reporter: Definitely not, but in terms of Turkey: In recent years, Turkey would typically be positioned somewhere between the U.S. and continental Europe, which has been skeptical about enlargement and confronting Russia. That would be a typical Turkish position. In this conflict, it seems that the Turkish position was much closer to Russia than any other NATO country; there was no Turkish criticism of Russia at all.

Gilmore: I'm not sure of that, I've watched that carefully and I'd put that out there as a question mark, an assertion to be explored. Has Turkey reacted differently, has Turkey been more understanding toward the Russian position?

I think Turks had given Georgians some assistance. The Turks are obviously very careful with Russia and the U.S. When U.S. [vessels] carried assistance up through the straits to the Black Sea, the Turks applied convention rules very carefully and didn't change these requirements, and the Russians, by the way, appreciated that.

With that being said, I have seen nothing since August 8 that suggests that Turks had changed their course on EU membership or changed any of their loyalty to NATO. Given the special nature of Turkey, the Turkish government will always be careful and any change in Turkish policy would be very subtle thing.

Turkish-Armenian summit

Reporter: Since we are on subject of Turkey, the Turkish president's visit to Armenia was one of those not-so-subtle events. Our journalists in Armenia had dug up information that previously Turkish Prime Minister Ismet Inönü visited Soviet Armenia in the 1930s.

Gilmore: In a way it doesn't surprise me. When the Soviet Union was born, there was an alliance between Russia and Turkey. Vladimir Lenin personally was one of the authors of it. That memory is not dead and for a person like Inönü, who was a close lieutenant [of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's] that would be something that he was a part of.

Reporter: Clearly, President Gül did put a lot of thinking into this decision...

Gilmore: As did, I think, President Serge Sargsian....

Reporter: One would imagine, but the invitation was extended two months ago and for those two months there was no clear response from President Gül....

Gilmore: The Turkish press gave significant coverage to the invitation and President Sargsian was interviewed [by the Radikal newspaper] and I thought did a masterful job in presenting the case why he invited President Gül.

It's not the first time Turkish reporters are given interviews by Armenian leaders. Robert Kocharian gave a very important interview, 5-6 years ago. Of course, in my time, Levon Ter-Petrossian was engaged in a careful dialogue with Turkey.

But it seems to me that President Sargsian has done a very masterful job in trying to explain to the Armenian world why he's doing what he is doing. He is in it with his eyes open. I think it's a major initiative for the Armenian leader and I hope it bears fruit.

Reporter: Can this clear the waters in terms of Armenia explaining its position to Turkey, rather than Turkey explaining the Armenian position to itself, as it has been for a while? Do you think the Turkish leadership is clear about what Armenian intentions are?

Gilmore: I think they are. From what I've seen, there has been dialogue since the rebirth of the Armenian state; there has been some dialogue between Ter-Petrossian and Turkish leaders.

But I think there is more dialogue now between Armenia and Turkey than ever before.

Reporter: One functional difference is that for Armenia, the Turkish issue is large, an almost definitive issue in its foreign policy, but for Turkey Armenia is one of many issues on its agenda.

Turkey is now focused on winning a seat on the UN Security Council. They are opening embassies around Africa and assisting Pacific island nations, thus generating international support. They are still on the EU track but it is not as significant as previously.

How is the Armenian item playing into larger Turkish policy today? Is Turkey genuinely interested in normalization?

Gilmore: I think they are, one of the reasons I'm sure that the Turks have calculated carefully. Azerbaijan for its own reasons has been very nervous about [Russian recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia], about the Turkish-Armenian dialogue.

They have lobbied Ankara against it but this time, Gul and [Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan [must have] have thought through of what they are doing about Armenia and talked to Baku about it and made it clear that whatever Baku [says,] the Turks are going.

That to me is a measure of Turks' sincerity.

Pipelines and Karabakh after the Ossetia war

Reporter: It seems until recently the Turks weighed Baku and Yerevan and said: why should we spoil good relations with "brothers" in Baku at the expense of Yerevan, which is not offering us that much other than some soothing historical lessons?

Now, with Turkish position evolving with Russia, they look at Armenia as an extension of Russian interests and....

Gilmore: They certainly look at Armenia as a strategic ally of Russia, which President Sargsian has made very plain is the case, and then the Turks have taken that into account.

With that being said, I give Turkish diplomacy a lot of credit and I think they will see Armenia as a strategic ally of Russia is not in lock-step to Russia. Armenia is a sovereign country and Sargsian is making decisions as the head of sovereign Armenia. Strategic alliance with Russia is fundamental to Armenian interests as he and the Armenian political class see them, but Armenia is not anybody's satellite.

Reporter: But would it make sense to say that now Turks are not just weighing Baku against Yerevan but they are weighing the future of their relations with Russia and Armenia versus Baku?

Gilmore: I think it's probably a factor in their decision. I think the Turks also know if there is an opening of a new border and exchange of ambassadors it could be very significant.

If you could get Armenian-Turkish normalization and some kind of agreement on Karabakh I think you could have a very different Caucasus. I think Armenia and Azerbaijan have naturally a lot of complementarities in terms of economics and I think both countries would profit considerably and quickly. I'm sure the Turks have thought of that and I'm sure they've thought of communications with Baku which are now through Georgia or down the tortured route through Iran.

Reporter: From your time, there was a lot of talk about running the Azerbaijan to Turkey pipelines through Armenia. It seems that because of the crisis in Georgia that talk has been revived. A sign of that was Vice President Dick Cheney, while not going to Armenia, making a comment on inviting Armenia to the EU summit on energy.

Gilmore: I saw that and again, Armenia will be very careful on this issue because of its strategic alliance with Russia. So much depends on Russia's intentions.

[But] I think it's clear that the Turks have been very careful not to rule anything out in terms of Armenia as a transit country of future pipelines. It's probably premature to talk about it at this point but I cannot believe the Turks, careful strategic thinkers, haven't thought about it.

Reporter: Other than that, in terms of the U.S. reaction to this crisis, one of the side effects that we have seen is [Deputy Assistant Secretary of State] Matt Bryza drafting new language on the U.S. position on Nagorno-Karabakh for Vice President Cheney's visit to Azerbaijan; he played up "territorial integrity," and it was clearly designed to appease Azerbaijan.

Gilmore: I've also seen the U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan in the Azerbaijani press saying it's time to put more emphasis on resolving the issue in the context of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. I don't know if it's a policy shift or not.

Reporter: And for our readers, what is the difference between a change of rhetoric and a change of policy?

Gilmore: Change in rhetoric does not necessarily mean change in policy. From what I understood from colleagues in the U.S. government, the U.S. still hopes to work on [the Madrid] principles for Karabakh. [The say that] France, the U.S., and Russia [can continue] as co-chairs of the Minsk Group.

The other question on my mind as a former diplomat is about the French, through President [Nicolas] Sarkozy's mediation efforts in Georgia: Are they looking at this post-August 8? Is there any implication for Karabakh negotiations and what is it? What are implications of Russia recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia? Is there an analogy with the Karabakh?

McCain vs. Obama Russia policy

Gilmore: Maybe there will be difference depending on which candidate will be elected in terms of a difference in policy. Sen. John McCain at one point said that we are all Georgians; whether in fact a McCain administration will pursue that policy, I'm not sure.

I would assume whichever camp wins there would be systematic review of U.S. policy, including toward Russia and the region. I would imagine if McCain gets elected, the idea of Georgia being supported for eventual NATO membership would still be U.S. policy.

With Barack Obama, I'm less sure [he'd support such a direct confrontation with Russia], but support for Georgia's territorial integrity will be a part of our policy whoever is elected. And then I think at some point Russia intends to incorporate [Abkhazia and South Ossetia]. This could be a long procedure.

Reporter: Either way, the holdup there is Abkhazia. It doesn't want to be a part of Russia.

Gilmore: [True,] Russians were not totally pleased with the outcome of the [most recent presidential] election there and the Abkhaz have the tendency to do their own thing. Ossetia is different; North Ossetia is a part of the Russian Federation so South Ossetia joining that entity is logical from South Ossetian and Russian points of view.

Reporter: What do you think is in the U.S. interest? Should the United States continue to lobby for Georgia and Ukraine to be NATO members and thus antagonize Russia? Or should the United States in a way let this area be like Finland in the Cold War - connected to the West economically but not militarily?

Gilmore: I would say certainly the U.S. interest is to continue support of the territorial integrity of Georgia as well as the territorial integrity of Moldova...

Reporter: And, in that case, what about Azerbaijan?

Gilmore: In Azerbaijan: support its territorial integrity, but the territorial integrity and principles are fine, but there is a negotiated settlement that changes that and the parties agree that's a different question. I think I made myself clear and I know you understand it.

But, back to the U.S., I would personally support economic assistance to Georgia and figure out a way to repair some infrastructural damage. If Georgia continues to pursue NATO membership I think the U.S. [should support that]. That's what Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried had said in his last testimony; I think it's going to be U.S. policy.

And some kind of [security] assistance to Georgia to enable it to have the means to protect its own internal security and putting down some kind of protections for its borders [is in order].

Reporter: But back to Finland. It was attacked by the Soviet Union in 1939 and the U.S. and allies sacrificed Finland's interests to keep the Soviet Union as an ally against Nazi Germany. So, in this case, the bigger challenge is Iran or Islamic terrorism or perhaps China; would it make sense for the U.S. and its allies to sacrifice Georgia's interests to continue to court Russia?

Gilmore: I don't think we'll do that. The United States and European Union are not going to abandon Georgia. However, whether they will approve Georgia for full membership in NATO is a different question. It's a question of when and if.

Reporter: Finally, with the financial collapse going on, would it be too conspiratorial to suggest that some thinking minds in the United States and Russia could decide that some kind of long-term confrontation might be in the interests of their states?

Gilmore: I think no, the decision makers in both countries are very careful not to get into that kind of a situation. There is nothing to be gained for either side in that kind of confrontation. Everybody would lose and people in the countries would just suffer.

I personally don't look for a new Cold War, I see some analogies, but I don't know if this is becoming a Cold War.

With that being said, I think there is a possibility that Russia by pushing the idea that it has a sphere of influence will get a negative reaction in the political class of the U.S.

I think nobody is going to accept that as when we talk about the sphere of influence, does that mean Poland shouldn't be in NATO? We won't accept that and if the Russians keep talking about it, it will change the attitude of not only the U.S. but France and Britain, maybe even Germany.

I hope the Russians don't go down that road and they calculate their interests carefully.

Briefly: U.S. aid to Armenia and Georgia, France mediates Russia-Georgia peace deal

First published in September 13, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan and Lusine Sarkisyan

Rep. Sherman calls for additional U.S. aid to Armenia

Citing losses suffered by Armenia’s economy as a result of the fighting in Georgia last month, Rep. Brad Sherman (D.-Calif.) called on the Bush administration to provide additional assistance to Armenia.

“Armenia is an innocent victim of this war,” Mr. Sherman told Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing held on September 9.

Mr. Sherman cited an estimate announced by the secretary of Armenia’s National Security Council, Artur Baghdasarian, and published by the RFE/RL Armenian Report on September 3, that the conflict cost Armenia as much as $680 million in damages.

Dan Fried at the hearing, with Mike McFaul, Obama campaign advisor at top left.

Like other State Department officials before him, Mr. Fried acknowledged that the fighting in Georgia hurt Armenia but said that the Bush administration, which on September 3 announced plans for $1 billion in additional aid to Georgia, had no plans to provide additional help to Armenia.

Of the $1 billion total, the administration wants $570 million appropriated this year, of which $200 million would be new funds and $370 million “re-programmed” from other foreign affairs programs.

But Mr. Fried kept the door open: “I would have to look at what Armenia has, and what lies behind these large estimates for damage, that seems pretty high, but I would want to take a look at this.”

Earlier this year, before the Georgia fighting, the House of Representatives approved $60 million in annual economic aid to both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, with a similar amount appropriated for Georgia. In its initial request, the Bush Administration suggested only $24 million in Armenia aid.

The Armenian Assembly of America (AAA) reported in a September 9 press release that it had sent a letter to the House Appropriations Committee, which decides foreign aid levels, pointing out the impact the fighting in Georgia had on Armenia.

The release further cited Mr. Sherman as saying that he was “deeply troubled that the Administration failed to take into account the impact that this recent crisis
has had on our ally Armenia.

“We must ensure that any aid package also includes Armenia,” Mr. Sherman concluded.

Congress cool to Georgia aid request

Members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, both Democrats and Republicans, questioned the Bush administration’s rationale for providing Georgia with $1 billion in additional U.S. assistance after its government defied U.S. calls for restraint and attacked South Ossetia last month.

They also wondered why the United States would want to continue to antagonize Russia, whose help is needed in containing Iran and nonproliferation and counterterrorism efforts around the world.

GOP Congressman Dana Rohrabacher.

“The Russians are right! We’re wrong! Georgia started it, the Russians ended it,” Rep. Dana Rohrbacher (R.-Calif.) told Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried during a September 9 hearing.

Mr. Fried argued that “Georgia’s move into South Ossetian capital provided a pretext [but] was no justification for Russian invasion of Georgia.” He added that U.S. assistance to Georgia intended to send a signal to other small pro-American states that they would not be abandoned by the United States.

But Mr. Rohrabacher recalled that U.S. military action against Serbia and in support of Kosovo in 1999 caused more civilian deaths (about 500) than Russia’s military action in Georgia (about 100) and that the United States was “undermining its credibility” by opposing South Ossetia’s self-determination and, in the process, unnecessarily antagonizing Russia.

“We have been just pushing the Russians and pushing the Russians, making them into an enemy when they at first wanted to be friends,” he argued.

Reps. Eni Faleomavaega (D.-American Samoa), Don Payne (D.-N.J.), Brad Sherman (D.-N.J.), Bill Delahunt (D.-Mass.), Diane Watson (D.-Calif.), Sheila Jackson Lee (D.-Tex.), Ron Klein (D.-Fla.), Ed Royce (R.-Calif.), Ron Paul (R.-Tex.), and Ted Poe (R.-Tex.), also questioned the rationale for the administration’s approach and appeared to oppose the proposed aid package.

Committee chair Howard Berman (D.-Calif.), Ranking Member Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R.-Fla.), Reps. Chris Smith (R.-N.J.), Robert Wexler (D.-Fla.), David Scott (D.-Ga.), Gene Green (D.-Tex.), and Albio Sires (D.-N.J.) in turn criticized Russia’s actions and urged support for Georgia, but none openly backed the $1 billion aid package and many sounded unhappy with the United States’ ability to deal with Russia.

“Administration policy toward Russia seems to be: Speak loudly, carry a small stick,” surmised Mr. Berman, the Committee chair.

United States to assess Georgian military needs

The Pentagon will dispatch an assessment team to Georgia this week to investigate the damage suffered by that country’s U.S.-trained military and determine its needs, Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman told the Senate Armed Services Committee on September 9. Georgian armed forces and especially their infrastructure are believed to have largely destroyed in the several days of conflict.

Meanwhile, Russia formally proposed an international embargo on arms supplies to Georgia, proposing a United Nations Security Council resolution to that effect, which is certain to be blocked by the United States and its allies. U.S. officials said that this week that while no decisions have yet been taken, Washington reserves the right to resume military assistance to Georgia.

In his testimony, Mr. Edelman said that Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia was “unwise” and came as a surprise for the United States. According to the Pentagon
official, the United States first began to worry when “Georgian troops being trained for their future deployment to Iraq did not show up for training,” presumably on the morning of August 7, about 15 hours before the attack was launched.

U.S. officials denied Russian government claims that U.S. personnel may have been involved in the fighting. Mr. Edelman noted that there were 84 U.S. military personnel in Georgia as of August 7.

Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried said most of the U.S. military advisors were evacuated shortly after Russia launched military operations
in Georgia.

Mr. Edelman further said that Georgian “artillery fire and multiple launched rockets into urban areas and into the proximity of Russian peacekeepers is lamentable, and we do not condone this activity.” But he added the U.S. government was still determined to continue to help Georgia.

Europeans hammer out Russian-Georgian peace agreement

Russia pledged to fully pull its troops out from Georgia within a month after Tbilisi gives a legal pledge to never again use force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, effectively surrendering sovereignty over its former provinces now recognized by Russia as independent states, news agencies reported.

This was the main agreement reached by Russia and Georgia with mediation from French president Nicolas Sarkozy and European Union officials who shuttled between Moscow and Tbilisi on September 8. The new agreement builds on and clarifies the ceasefire deal Mr. Sarkozy helped mediate on August 12; that deal had put an end to most Russian military operations inside Georgia.

While Russia intends to keep several thousand of its troops inside both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, international monitors will take up stations in adjacent Georgian territories. The status of the two republics will become a focus of international talks that would start next month in Geneva.

The United States welcomed the agreement as it puts a clear deadline to Russian military presence inside Georgia proper.

During Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on September 9, Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried acknowledged that as part of the negotiated agreement, “Russia will have succeeded in grabbing two small provinces” of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Los Angeles Times reported the same day.

But, he added, the U.S. priority was to make sure the sovereignty of the rump Georgian state is not “crushed” completely.

Briefly: Cheney's last hurrah? Pro-Azeri rhetoric and aid to Georgia

First published in September 6 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

State Department officials tout Armenia relations

The United States hopes that Armenia would contribute to its efforts to “knit” the Caucasus “back together” following the Russian-Georgian military confrontation, U.S. Undersecretary of State Bill Burns said in remarks just prior to a swearing-in ceremony, held on September 2, for the newly confirmed U.S. Ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch.

Mr. Burns went on to praise Armenia’s “humanitarian efforts in support of Georgia,” according to video of the remarks released by the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

The State Department’s third most senior official described the various areas in which the United States and Armenia have cooperated and said that the bilateral relationship is based on “shared values.”

Mr. Burns also called Armenia the “model of economic reform in its region.”

Referring to fighting over South Ossetia, Ms. Yovanovitch argued, “especially after the events of the last few weeks, it is clear that ending Armenian isolation in that region must become a priority.”

She said normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey would help in achieving a peaceful settlement with Azerbaijan.

Ms. Yovanovitch praised President Serge Sargsian for “bold leadership” in both efforts, while also promising to help the Armenian government to “restore democratic momentum” following the post-election crisis earlier this year.

The recently confirmed Ambassador also had good words for the Armenian-American community, which she said “is in so many ways a foundation and strength of our bilateral relationship.”

U.S. seeks to encourage “endangered” Azerbaijan

On a regional tour that aims to shore up U.S. influence badly damaged by Russia’s military incursion into Georgia, Vice President Dick Cheney and his wife Lynne arrived in Baku on September 3 for one day of talks with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, local U.S. embassy staff, and Baku-based representatives of Chevron and the company formerly known as British Petroleum.

Mr. Cheney’s priority in Azerbaijan was to make certain that Caspian oil and gas continues to be exported via Georgia, as it has been for the past several years, rather than through Russia. The Russian route would help Moscow control supplies from its Central Asian competitors.

Clearly wary of antagonizing Russia, Mr. Aliyev made no clear public commitments. Azerbaijani officials have instead commented on a possible revival of the cross- Russia route while they also refused to criticize Russia’s treatment of its “strategic partner” Georgia; Mr. Aliyev avoided mention of that country in his joint remarks with Mr. Cheney.

Earlier, Azerbaijan rebuffed persistent lobbying by former Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld to expand bilateral military cooperation against Iran. It is unclear whether Mr. Cheney had renewed a military cooperation offer this time around.

In remarks cited by Eurasianet.org, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Anne Derse said, “many in the region are afraid now that [Russia’s recent] actions are directed not only against Georgia, but against all of those who have democratic aspirations”; she was apparently referring to Ukraine and Azerbaijan, even though Azerbaijan has not exhibited such aspirations.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried described Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine as “three of the most endangered countries” in the region.

In comments released by the White House and apparently crafted to entice Azerbaijan’s sympathies, Mr. Cheney told Mr. Aliyev, “America strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. We are committed to achieving a negotiated solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – a solution that starts with the principle of territorial integrity, and takes into account other international principles.”

The United States, together with the two other lead mediators, Russia and France, has for the past decade supported a settlement formula that formalized Karabakh’s
reunification with Armenia. With France now mediating between the United States and Russia over Georgia, the future of the mediating troika’s role in the Karabakh conflict has been put into doubt.

A former energy sector executive, the vice president has had a long personal history with Azerbaijan, including through his past affiliation with the U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce, the country’s Washington-based lobby.

Although Mr. Cheney became the most senior U.S. official ever to visit Azerbaijan, Baku has uncharacteristically played down the visit’s importance. According to Eurasianet.org “local reporters were barred from having access to the US vice president.”

In a symbolic display at the Heydar Aliyev airport, the Cheneys were greeted by Deputy Prime Minister Yaqub Eyubov, who has traditionally handled lesser assignments for Mr Aliyev and his late father, the former president.



Bush pledges $1 billion in Georgia aid

The United States will provide more than $1 billion in economic aid to Georgia, President George W. Bush announced on September 3, as Vice President Dick Cheney was about to arrive in Tbilisi.

The $1 billion figure was reportedly first suggested by Sen. Joe Biden, who has since become the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee. Of the amount $570 million is proposed to be allocated before the end of the Bush administration.

The proposal would make Georgia one of the largest U.S. aid recipients in the world, after only Iraq, Israel, and Egypt, and on par with what war-torn Afghanistan has been receiving recently. Since Georgia launched its failed attack on South Ossetia on August 8, the United States has already provided Georgia with $30 million worth of humanitarian aid, dispatching naval vessels and military cargo planes to deliver the assistance.

More supplies are due to be delivered by the flagship of U.S. naval forces in the Mediterranean, USS Mount Whitney, which on September 3 was crossing the Turkish straits.

Although members of Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign have called for military aid to Georgia to counter Russia, the Bush Administration has not taken a public position on whether it would continue or expand its existing military programs in Georgia.

Nonetheless, the massive foreign assistance program will help Georgia free up even more funds for its already large military budget, which stood at $1 billion in 2007 and was expected to reach a similar amount this year. Russia this week said it will seek to prevent Georgia’s re-armament.

In addition to U.S. assistance, the International Monetary Fund announced that it would open a $750 million credit line on which Georgia could draw.

In other news, members of the European Union met on September 1 and limited the EU’s threats to Russia to a possible postponement of talks on a new treaty with Moscow unless Russia sticks to the cease-fire agreement mediated by France. The decision was given a positive spin by both the United States and Russia.

On a visit to Uzbekistan, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that "by and large common sense prevailed" at the EU summit and argued that Russia was complying with the cease-fire. But he also criticized the EU for failure to condemn Georgia’s attack against South Ossetia that sparked the war last month.

Republican presidential candidate selects running mate

In a surprising development, Sen. John McCain (R.-Ariz.), who this week officially became the GOP’s nominee for the White House, selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Ms. Palin was elected governor less than two years ago. Prior to that she chaired the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in 2003–2004 and between 1996 and 2002was mayor of Wasilla, an Alaskan town of 6,000.

She has no known record on Armenian issues.

—Lusine Sarkisyan contributed to this week’s briefing.

Briefly on Schiff delegation in Baku and Yerevan, Georgian election

First published in May 31, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Congressional delegation in Armenia, region

Reps. Adam Schiff (D.-Calif.), Allyson Schwartz (D.-Penn.) and Wayne Gilchrest (R.-Md.) visited Baku on May 24–25 and Yerevan on May 26–27, meeting with Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents and other officials, their offices reported. The trip was the first visit to Armenia by members of Congress since 2005 and was organized through the ad hoc House Democracy Assistance Commission.

Rep. Schiff, who represents the cities of Glendale and Pasadena, with the largest proportion of Armenian-American voters in the United States, told President Serge Sargsian, “We consider Armenia an important partner and ally. Consequently, we wish to as far as possible assist its political and economic progress.”

In an interview with RFE/RL Armenian Service, Rep. Schiff said that he and other members were “concerned with the problems that occurred during the election [in Armenia], the violence that occurred after the election.”

“We are here to try to assess the situation and talk with the Armenian government about how we can help move the government further in the direction of democracy,” Rep. Schiff added.

Rep. Schiff’s delegation also met with aides to Levon Ter-Petrossian, the opposition figure and former president, who focused on the recent election campaign and its outcome.

While in Baku, the members of Congress heard criticisms of Armenia and the Armenian diaspora, with few details reported.

From Armenia the delegation flew on to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Georgian ruling party election sweep welcomed, protested

The National Movement Party led by President Mikheil Saakashvili swept the May 21 parliamentary election winning more than 110 seats in the 150-seat legislature, according to preliminary results made available via the Civil.ge news portal.

The remaining seats were won by the Nine-party Opposition Alliance (about 16 seats) led by David Gamkrelidze, the Christian Democratic Party of former TV anchor Giorgi Targamadze (8 seats), the Labor Party of populist politician Shalva Natelashvili (6 seats), and the opposition Republican Party led by David Berdzenishvili (2 seats).

Three of the seats in parliament went to ethnic Armenians, as the Armenian Reporter reported last week.

The opposition alliance quickly called for annulment of results, pointing to electoral violations. It also launched several well-attended protest rallies and vowed it would prevent the new parliament from convening.

Western observers suggested that the government’s efforts to meet democratic standards for elections were “uneven and incomplete.”

(The observers gave a more upbeat assessment of the presidential election last January calling it “democratic.” See this page in the January 12, 2008 Armenian Reporter.)

According to the observers there were problems with vote count in 16 percent of precincts inspected – about the same number as in Georgian, as well as Armenian, presidential polls earlier this year.

Nevertheless, the U.S. State Department was “encouraged” by what it thought were “improvements” in election conduct compared to the previous poll.

Georgia has been possibly the most eager ally of the United State in recent years, sending one of the largest military contingents in support of U.S.-led Iraq operations.

Briefly: U.S.' Iraq policy, anti-Americanism in Turkey, Georgia and U.S., Armenia’s nuclear neighborhood, Russia’s new PM

First published in the September 15, 2007 Armenian Reporter

From Washington, in brief
by Emil Sanamyan

Bush Administration resists calls for withdrawal from Iraq

Speaking in Congress this week, the U.S. commander in Iraq made the Bush Administration’s case for maintaining the American military presence in the country at about the current level, at least until next summer. Democratic leaders continued to call for a substantial withdrawal sooner rather than later.

On September 10 and 11, Gen. David Petraeus pointed to some progress made in establishing security in central Iraq since the U.S. began its “surge” earlier this year to the current troop level of over 160,000. But the pressure has been building from both Democrats and Republicans to begin to pull troops out of the increasingly unpopular conflict in Iraq, particularly ahead of November 2008 presidential and congressional elections.

The war launched by the United States in March 2003 and the subsequent insurgency and civil war in Iraq have so far resulted in the deaths of more than 4,000 U.S. and coalition military personnel, and well over 70,000 Iraqi civilians, displacing about two million more.

According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, 55 percent of Americans want U.S. troops out of Iraq by early 2008. Gen. Petraeus could only see up to 30,000 U.S. personnel possibly withdrawn by summer of 2008 – something that would reverse this year’s “surge,” but would also almost certainly leave the Iraq conflict for the next American president to sort out.

A small Armenian contingent is set to remain in Iraq until the end of 2007, when the Armenian government may seek another extension for the deployment. It is based near the town of Al Kut, in the same area near the Iraq-Iran border where the U.S. is planning to build a large military based, according to the September 10 report in the Wall Street Journal.

Poll: Anti-American sentiments in Turkey not limited to U.S. government

Turks continue to have some of the strongest anti-American sentiments in the world, according to a study by the Pew Global Attitudes Project conducted earlier this year. The findings, circulated by www.worldpublicopinion.org on September 5, show that more than 83 percent of Turks hold an unfavorable view of the United States, and 77 percent dislike Americans.

The Pew study also confirmed findings of a Bilgi University study (see this column in the June 16 Armenian Reporter ) according to which Turks view the United States, their country’s longtime NATO ally, as the greatest threat to their security; 64 percent in the Pew study said the U.S. was a threat to Turkey, and 35 percent in the Bilgi study said the U.S. posed the biggest threat (more than any other source).

Commentators see the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq as the main reason for the increase in anti-American attitudes. Turks are particularly unhappy with the strengthening of a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq and simultaneous intensification of insurgent attacks in majority Kurdish southeastern Turkey. The intermittent clashes so far this year are believed to have killed 300 Kurds and about 100 Turkish security forces, the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation reported on September 5.

Turkish dislikes of America are spilling into apolitical spheres as well. Thus, 81 percent “dislike American ideas about democracy,” 83 percent dislike “American ways of doing business,” 68 percent dislike “American music, movies and television,” and up to 51 percent say they do not admire the United States for its “technological and scientific advances.”

Georgian foreign minister works to retain U.S. support

The U.S. secretaries of state and defense offered continued support for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration (also known as NATO membership), the Georgian Foreign Ministry reported on September 11, after Minister Gela Bezhuashvili met with Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates.

Mr. Bezhuashvili told the Associated Press that Georgia hopes for a formal invitation to join the alliance in April 2008. “This is the highest priority of our foreign policy,” he told AP.

The U.S. supports Georgia’s membership, but it is unclear whether the country would be able to win unanimous backing from alliance members wary of expansion and Georgia’s volatility (see this column in the September 8 Armenian Reporter).

Speaking at the Brookings Institution in Washington on September 10, Mr. Bezhuashvili sought to play down continued tensions with Russia and said Georgia would respond “moderately” to future “provocations.” He also argued that Georgia’s increased military spending was needed to fund its armed forces’ reform and missions abroad – particularly in Iraq, where it is in the process of increasing its presence to 2,000 service members.

Mr. Bezhuashvili’s talk focused on improvements in Georgia’s business climate, noting the growth in foreign investments from $400 million in 2005 to $1.5 billion in 2006, which he said had resulted from reduced corruption and increased transparency.

Asked by the Armenian Reporter why the investors who last month secured the rights to manage Georgia’s railroad (see this column in August 25 Armenian Reporter ) have not been named, Mr. Bezhuashvili claimed that he was not familiar with the deal since he had been traveling for weeks.

A Georgian business tycoon, Badri Patarkatsishvili, denied media speculation that he had taken control of the railroad in exchange for his TV holding, www.civil.ge reported on September 10. Mr. Patarkatsishvili recently relocated to London after he claimed his Imedi television station came under pressure from the Georgian government.

The Georgian Messenger daily reported on September 7 that the railroad’s formal owner, the Britishregistered Parkfield Investments, was a shell company backed by two other offshore groups registered respectively in the Bahamas and Cyprus.

Armenia’s neighbors are also interested in nuclear energy

According to preliminary estimates, a new nuclear power plant will take four-and-a-half years to build and cost $2 billion, Armenian news agencies cited Energy Minister Armen Movsisian as telling the National Assembly on September 7. A project feasibility study, currently being developed together with Russia, the U.S., and the International Agency for Atomic Energy (IAEA), is to be ready by next year, Mr. Movsisian said.

Despite the steep price tag, Mr. Movsisian said that “only a new nuclear plant can become an alternative for the existing power plant” at Metsamor, which is slated to be decommissioned in the next decade, PanArmenian.net reported.

He added that due to the efforts of the Armenian government, key international players “now realize that Armenia must have an atomic power plant.” In addition to Iran’s widely publicized nuclear efforts, Armenia’s three other neighbors are also looking to benefit from nuclear technology. The Turkish government still plans to have nuclear energy by 2020, although construction plans for a plant were scrapped during the economic crisis in 2000.

Last month, the Georgian government established a state commission headed by its energy minister to look into the possibility of constructing a nuclear reactor in Georgia, Prime News reported on August 16 (also see this column in
the June 23 Armenian Reporter ). And on August 24, the Azeri Trend news agency reported that, with help from IAEA, the Azerbaijani government is planning to begin building a nuclear reactor near Baku in 2009. Azerbaijan is reportedly looking to build a nuclear power plant later this century, when its oil and gas resources are expected to run out.

Around the world, there are 31 nuclear reactors now under construction, with 439 reactors currently working, the Economist reported on September 8. In the U.S., the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is expected to receive a total of 27 applications in 2007–8 for building new nuclear reactors.

Russian President appoints new Prime Minister

With just six months left before the Russian presidential elections, President Vladimir Putin replaced his prime minister on September 12, international news agencies reported. But instead of naming his likely successor to the post, Mr. Putin appointed a largely unknown bureaucrat, Viktor Zubkov, to take over from another political lightweight, Mikhail Fradkov.

After more than seven years in office, Mr. Putin remains popular in Russia, but he will not stand in elections when his second term runs out in March 2008. Speculations have focused on three influential deputy Prime ministers – Sergei Ivanov, Sergei Naryshkin, and Dmitri Medvedev – as his most likely successors.

On the day of the reshuffle, Vedomosti, a leading Russian business daily, cited a source close to the Kremlin as saying that Mr. Ivanov would be named prime minister. But instead Mr. Zubkov – a 66-year-old, longtime colleague of Mr. Putin, who until now had headed a state committee combating money laundering – was appointed.

Most Russia watchers have ruled out Mr. Zubkov as a potential successor, and still see Mr. Ivanov as the most likely next president of Russia.