Erdogan, Saakashvili at UN; More U.S. radar in Caucasus talk; Burns / Merry on Karabakh;

This was first published in the September 26, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan


Foreign leaders arrive in New York for annual meetings

The presidents of Georgia, Iran, and Russia and the prime minister of Turkey were among dozens of foreign leaders in attendance at the annual United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York this week. Armenia and Azerbaijan dispatched their foreign ministers.

In a talk at Princeton University on September 23, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to submit the Armenia-
Turkey protocols for ratification on October 10–11, “if we don’t see prejudice or some domestic political considerations at play.” (It is unclear whether the Turkish parliament normally meets on the weekend, with October 10 and 11 being Saturday and Sunday.)

Mr. Erdogan was also due to raise Armenian issues in a meeting with President Barack Obama at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh on September 25, six months after Mr. Obama publicly urged Turkey to come to terms with its past and to normalize relations with Armenia in an expeditious manner.

But before that meeting, Mr. Erdogan’s delegation reportedly scuffled with Mr. Obama’s security detail as their paths crossed at the Clinton Global Initiative offices in Manhattan, with the Turkish leader himself reportedly getting physically involved.

“A foreign delegation got confused and were trying to enter the president’s departure tent and didn’t understand the verbal instructions being given. They had to be physically restrained,” a spokesperson for the Secret Service told the Washington Times, whose correspondent witnessed the incident.

A frequent visitor to the United States in the past, Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili made his first public trip to New York since the August 2008 war over South Ossetia.

Mr. Saakashvili met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on September 21. Promised continued diplomatic support on South Ossetia and Abkhazia at that meeting, Mr. Saakashvili was also urged to remain patient with their de-facto annexation by Russia.

Separately, U.S. and Georgian officials were due to discuss potential resettlement of terrorism suspects released from the military prison in Guantanamo in Georgia, Civil.ge reported.

Pentagon wants anti-Iran radar in the Caucasus

A senior U.S. military official said that an American early-warning radar (referred to as X-Band radar) aimed at missiles potentially launched from Iran was “probably more likely to be in the Caucasus,” a region that is adjacent to Iran, rather than in European countries that are further away.

Vice-chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright made the comment during a September 17 Pentagon press conference intended to explain the cancellation of U.S. plans for missile and radar deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Chief of Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolay Makarov was quick to respond. He said that Russia would view a U.S. radar in the Caucasus “negatively” unless Russia and the United States were “to build it jointly.”

The United States first expressed interest in a Caucasus radar in March 2007, when the director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency at the time, Gen. Henry Obering, floated the idea of a “mobile antimissile radar” in the Caucasus to monitor Iran; a U.S. official soon after denied there were any deployment plans.

In June 2007, Russian leader Vladimir Putin suggested the United States could receive information gathered by a Russian early warning radar base in Azerbaijan and other Russian facilities there instead of unilaterally deploying new radars. The Bush administration took interest in the offer, but U.S. officials argued that data supplied by Russia could not be a substitute for a U.S.-run missile defense system.

The United States has placed X-Band radars around the world, including one in Israel last year, marking the first foreign military deployment in Israel since its independence.

Of the three Caucasus states, only Georgia publicly welcomed the potential U.S. radar deployment, Eurasianet.org reported on September 18.

The same day, Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister Araz Azimov said that U.S. officials did not raise the issue during his Washington visit last week, Azerbaijani media reported.

U.S. sees “clear outline” for Karabakh peace, “tangible results” in weeks

“We hope that the recent progress made in talks between Presidents Aliyev and Sargsian will lead to tangible results when they meet next month,” U.S. Undersecretary of State Bill Burns said in prepared remarks delivered on September 18 at an event co-sponsored by Georgetown University and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Washington.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and his Armenian counterpart Serge Sargsian are expected to attend the next Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moldova on October 8-9.

The State Department’s most senior diplomat went on to note, “The outline of a possible settlement has been clear for some time, though as with all things, the devil lies in the details and further discussions will be needed to satisfy the concerns of both sides.”

Mr. Burns’ remarks appeared to be carefully calibrated and did not include any reference to U.S. recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Starting in August 2008, former U.S. negotiator for Karabakh Matt Bryza used language that emphasized Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity as the starting point of a settlement.

Writing earlier this year, a former official at the State and Defense Departments, Wayne Merry, also suggested, “the outlines of a settlement have been clear for fifteen years”; he at the same time offered a more concrete formula for resolution that would “reflect both the realities of war and the needs of peace.”

“These realities transcend the standard rhetoric of ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity’ as well as that of ‘national self-determination,’” Mr. Merry argued in his paper “Karabakh: Is war inevitable?”

“In a settlement, Armenia will get Karabakh and a land corridor to Armenia, while Azerbaijan gets back the lowland surrounding territories. This is not about justice, nor right and wrong, but is the inescapable and necessary formula for peace.”

“To be sure, there are a multitude of details (where the devil always lurks) and implementation problems (where the costs for outside powers will be substantial),” Mr. Merry concluded.

Former Senator counsels patience in U.S. relations with ex-USSR

The United States should be more respectful of other countries’ sensitivities, former Senator Chuck Hagel advised, particularly as political and economic power becomes more diffused around the world and the United States is less capable of accomplishing its goals singlehandedly.

Mr. Hagel spoke at a Georgetown University event sponsored by the Azerbaijani Embassy on September 18. The former Republican senator from Nebraska (1997–2009) was a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and a leading Senate voice on U.S. policy in the former Soviet areas.

The former senator counseled patience and “careful expectations” when dealing with former Soviet countries that have been “thrown into a new situation” in the last two decades.

He sidestepped more controversial issues such as Azerbaijan’s domestic politics and the Karabakh conflict, while also withholding the sort of praise for the sponsoring government that is frequently heard at such Washington events.

Mr. Hagel noted that the importance of the U.S. relationship with Azerbaijan, “a little country,” was first of all a function of it bordering on several larger countries such as Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

Earlier this year, Mr. Hagel was considered a candidate for a cabinet secretary post in the Obama administration. He is currently a professor at Georgetown and chairs the Atlantic Council of the United States, a group that promotes cooperation among NATO members and partners.

Azerbaijani official assails U.S. policies in “friendly talk”

A senior Azerbaijani official dismissed U.S. criticism of his government’s treatment of political opponents, restrictions on mass media and nongovernmental groups, and corruption, pointing to what he argued were similar restrictions or greater problems in the United States.

Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov also demanded that Washington do more to stimulate Azerbaijan’s motivation to cooperate with the United States.

In what he described as a “friendly talk,” Mr. Azimov recalled the scandal at the former Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and the mistreatment of terrorism suspects at the U.S. military detention facility at Guantanamo, and suggested that the United States had not fully investigated human-rights violations there. He further described U.S. military presence in Afghanistan as a “mess” and likened it to the ill-fated Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979–89.

Mr. Azimov also justified the recent ban on U.S.- and British-funded broadcasts in Azerbaijan, claiming that the United States “would not allow” such broadcasters to use its national frequencies. (In fact, a number of foreign-funded media are available on national frequencies in the United States.)

The Azerbaijani official went on to propose that he “could not measure corruption” and therefore could not judge whether there was more corruption in the United States or Azerbaijan.

Discussing the history of U.S.-Azerbaijan engagement, Mr. Azimov described the United States as “more clumsy than it could be.” He noted that not a single U.S. secretary of state had visited Azerbaijan since the “one-hour visit” by Jim Baker in 1992.

“The time which was necessary for the [Obama administration] to get prepared has elapsed,” he stressed. “We expect high[-level] visits, . . . we expect statements made publicly on U.S. strategy for the Caucasus,” as well as U.S.-Russia cooperation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

Speaking on September 18 at the Georgetown University conference sponsored by the Azerbaijani Embassy, Mr. Azimov also took time to list what Azerbaijan believes are its contributions to the world civilization and the West.

Mr. Azimov arrived in Washington for the annual security dialogue meetings with U.S. officials. A deputy foreign minister managing Azerbaijan’s relations with the West, Mr. Azimov has worked in the same capacity under four different ministers since 1994.

More protocols discord, U.S. and Turkey on missiles

This was first published in the September 19, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Armenian-American groups split on Turkey protocols

The protocols on the establishments of bilateral relations and diplomatic relations that Armenia and Turkey are expected to sign on October 13 continue to be debated by Armenian-Americans.

The traditional political parties – the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaks), the Social Democratic Hunchakian Party, and the Armenian Democratic Liberal Party (Ramkavars) – have opposed the initiative, while the Armenian Assembly of America (AAA) and the Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU) have issued conditional endorsements.

In a September 9 letter addressed to President Barack Obama, leaders of the AAA and AGBU and the primates of the Eastern and Western Dioceses of the Armenian Church referred to the protocols and said they "look[ed] forward to a positive outcome" and the normalization of relations.

At the same time, they expressed concern with Turkey's efforts to link talks with Armenia to the Karabakh peace process and warned that "if this normalization process is used as a smokescreen for not reaffirming the Armenian Genocide and the U.S. record, it will be a blow to the rapprochement process."

Meanwhile, in Southern California, the protocols' opponents have organized a series of public protests and public meetings to denounce the deal as compromising Armenian interests. Much of the criticism has focused on the impact the protocols would have on efforts to win international condemnation of the Armenian Genocide and address its consequences.

In Washington, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) will organize two town hall-style meetings to discuss the protocols on September 24 and 26.

(For Turkish reaction to the protocols see http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2009-09-26-the-turkish-press-reacts-to-the-armenia-protocols.)

U.S. scraps European missile defense plan, launches fresh Iran diplomacy

The Obama administration decided to cancel the former president's plan to place missile interceptors and radars in Poland and the Czech Republic, officials were quoted as saying on September 17.

The Bush administration had said it wanted the new military installations to counter a potential missile threat from Iran. But the plan was strongly opposed by Russian leaders, who saw it as undermining their country's nuclear weapons deterrent.

The decision this week to scrap the plan was welcomed by Russia as well as several European officials. Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev called the decision a "responsible approach" and said he looked forward to dialogue with the United States during meetings at the United Nations next week.

Also next week, President Obama will become the first American president to chair a United Nations Security Council session. According to Politico newspaper, the United States will introduce a new resolution that would make the pursuit of peaceful nuclear energy contingent on countries' not being in violation of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. Commentators see the initiative as aimed at building an international consensus against Iran's nuclear program.

The resolution would also include a pledge by nuclear-armed countries not to use nuclear weapons against countries that don't have such weapons.

Officials from the five permanent Security Council member states (which include Russia) plus Germany are due to hold talks with Iran on October 1.

Turkey seeks upgraded missile defense shield

The Turkish government is considering proposals on ways to improve its missile defense capabilities, including a potential $7.8 billion deal with U.S. companies, news media reported.

On September 11, the Obama administration notified Congress of the possible sale, involving Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, two of the largest U.S. weapons' manufacturers, which have also long lobbied for Turkish interests in the United States.

Reacting to the U.S. announcement, the Turkish Defense Ministry noted that as part of a request for proposals unveiled last April, Ankara was considering offers from the United States, Russia, and China for the purchase of missile defense systems, with no final decisions yet made.

According to Zaman, Turkey's defense budget amounted to $11 billion in 2008, but the country's weapons acquisition is believed to be covered from non-budget sources that are not fully disclosed. In recent years, Turkey has increasingly been buying weapons from non-U.S. sources.

If it goes through, the deal would become part of a U.S. effort to deter Iran by establishing what U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described last July as a "defense umbrella" for America's Middle East allies.

Iran already has the capability to launch missiles at any part of Turkey's territory.

Obama in Cairo, Davutoglu at UN, Russia/Georgia talks, Iran elections

First published in June 6, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Barack Obama urges fresh start with Muslim world

In a much-anticipated address, President Barack Obama acknowledged on June 4 misunderstandings between the United States and many Muslims, and also stressed that "America and Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition."

The almost-one-hour-long speech was delivered at Cairo University in Egypt before an audience of 3,000; it was also carried live worldwide. Among other things, the president sought to emphasize shared values between Christians, Jews, and Muslims, frequently quoting from holy books.

Mr. Obama also promised a more evenhanded approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict rather than simply supporting Israel's actions unconditionally, as was the case under George W. Bush.

Earlier this year, Mr. Obama had already addressed Muslims via the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV, in a Nowrooz message to Iranians, and during a visit to Turkey.

Separately, on June 1, the United States' Caspian energy envoy Richard Morningstar delivered a letter from Mr. Obama to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

According to reports in the Azerbaijani press, Mr. Obama stressed the importance of exporting energy products in and near Azerbaijan, and pledged to offer America's "partnership" and "friendship" for continued progress on energy issues.

FM: Turkey wants new emphasis on U.S. ties, continued Armenia talks

U.S.-Turkey relations should be forward-looking and "make contributions to humanity" rather than excessively focus, as they have, on military cooperation, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told the American-Turkish Council (ATC) conference in a keynote address on June 2, Zaman reported.

The annual ATC conference is primarily funded by major U.S. weapons producers with a long history of selling their products to the Turkish military. It featured appearances by top military officers from both countries - Admiral Mike Mullen and General Ilker Basbug - who, Mr. Davutoglu noted, have known one another for 30 years.

Drawing a parallel between the United States and Roman Empire, Mr. Davutoglu urged the United States to take the more thoughtful, multilateral foreign-policy approach of Marcus Aurelius, rather than the unilateral approach of Julius Caesar.

Asked at a press conference the following day about Armenia-Turkey talks, Mr. Davutoglu sought to portray the process as continuing, albeit slowly. He also reiterated the linkage of Armenia-Turkey talks and the Karabakh dispute as "processes that positively support each other." He warned, however, that "moving frozen conflicts is a painful process which necessitates patience."

Mr. Davutoglu also acknowledged the link between Armenia-Turkey talks and Armenian-American efforts to pass a congressional resolution on the Armenian Genocide.

He argued that a "positive pace" in Armenia-Turkey talks will have to be maintained so that "the Armenian issue [is] no longer an issue blocking Turkish-American relations."

During a weeklong U.S. trip, the Turkish foreign minister also visited the United Nations headquarters in New York, as Turkey assumed the Security Council's rotating presidency.

Russia, Georgia may discuss opening of border crossing

While the rhetoric between Moscow and Tbilisi remains acrimonious, the Russian Foreign Ministry has proposed to hold talks with Georgian diplomats on reopening the main highway linking the two countries at the Lars checkpoint. A formal request was reportedly made on May 24, and Georgian officials have said they agreed to begin talks.

Before being closed by Russia in 2006, formally for repairs but also as a form of pressure on Georgia, the road served as a key ground-transportation link for Armenia, which has since had to rely on Black Sea ferry links that bypassed the Russian-Georgian border.

Meanwhile in Tbilisi, the Georgian opposition campaign against incumbent President Mikheil Saakashvili began to unravel, after failing to win substantial public support. One of the main opposition leaders, Irakly Alasania, has effectively split from others in the opposition coalition, most notably Nino Bourjanadze and Levan Gachechiladze, by calling for dialogue with Mr. Saakashvili.

Iran’s president faces strong electoral challenge

Early expectations that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would easily win reelection in voting on June 12 have now been replaced with those of a close race with a former prime minister, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, with the outcome likely to be decided in a runoff election.

According to media reports, the two candidates launched into personal attacks as they debated one another on live television on June 3. The debate became so heated that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, reportedly intervened to halt it.

Mr. Mousavi was prime minister between 1981 and 1989, during the years of war with Iraq. He has criticized Mr. Ahmadinejad for doing a disservice to Iran as president. Mr. Mousavi is backed by Mr. Ahmadinejad's predecessor Mohammad Khatami, who was president between 1997 and 2005.

Coming up: Sarkozy, Gordon, and Peres in the Caucasus, Obama in Russia

Recently appointed Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon will be in the Caucasus the week of June 8, visiting Armenia on June 9.

On June 25–26, French president Nicolas Sarkozy will visit Kazakhstan and the three Caucasus states. France is one of the lead mediators in Karabakh negotiations.

On June 28, Israeli president Shimon Peres will be in Baku, as part of a trip to Central Asia.

And between July 6 and 8, President Barack Obama will visit Russia for talks that are likely to focus on Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea, but might also include discussion of Caucasus concerns.

Obama, Islam, Turkey, Jews, Eurogas, etc.

This was first published in January 31, 2009 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama seeks dialogue with Iran, Muslim world

"As I said during my inauguration speech, if countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us," President Barack Obama said in his first White House interview, granted to Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya television on January 27.

In response, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would "welcome" a change in U.S. policy. But, as BBC News reported, that statement came after the Iranian president, who is facing re-election this June, issued a tirade of grievances against the United States.

Earlier, in an unusual gesture, Mr. Ahmadinejad sent a letter congratulating Mr. Obama on his election. The White House is reported to be currently drafting a letter to Iran. According to the Daily Telegraph "diplomatic drafts [of the letter] give assurances that Washington does not want to overthrow the Islamic regime, but merely seek a change in its behavior."

In the interview this week, Mr. Obama stressed the importance of dialogue. "It [is] important for us to be willing to talk to Iran, to express very clearly where our differences are, but where there are potential avenues for progress," he said.

By contrast, the former president, George W. Bush, refused to talk to Iran and pushed for tougher sanctions over Iran's enrichment of uranium.

In October 2007, both President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney issued dire warnings. Mr. Cheney said that the United States "will not allow" Iran to have a nuclear weapon, while Mr. Bush spoke of possible "World War III" should Iran acquire a nuclear weapon.

But in December 2007, a U.S. intelligence assessment determined that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Although members of the U.S. and Israeli political establishments disagreed with the assessment, the Bush Administration began to tone down its Iran rhetoric.

Notwithstanding the Obama administration's emphasis on dialogue, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hinted recently that a military option remains on the table. In her January 13 Senate testimony, she said the new administration was "not taking any option off the table at all . . . to try to prevent" Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

(As a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton had threatened to "obliterate" Iran if it used nuclear weapons against Israel and had criticized her ultimately victorious rival's readiness to talk to Iran without preconditions.)

Mr. Obama, while reiterating the importance of Israel's security to the United States, said he wanted to convince the Muslims "that Americans are not your enemy."

Among steps designed to reach that goal, the Obama Administration is closing the Guantánamo Bay detention center, making preparations for pulling out of Iraq, and pledging a renewed focus on settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the wake of Israel's devastating attack on Gaza.

U.S. envoy George Mitchell will be visiting Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The Turkish media noted that the visit will be the first high-level U.S.-Turkish contact since the new president's inauguration.

Separately, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a message to the president inviting to him to attend the summit dubbed the Alliance of Civilizations planned for April 6-7 in Istanbul.

That initiative was first launched by Turkey and Spain under the United Nations umbrella in 2007. Its first forum in January 2008 did not include U.S. officials.

World optimistic about Obama presidency

A majority of more than 17,000 respondents queried in 17 countries around the world believe that their nations will enjoy better ties with the United States under President Barack Obama, according to a BBC World Service study released on January 20.

Fifty-one percent of Turks and 47 percent of Russians - groups that have in recent years been especially suspicious of U.S. intentions - were optimistic about positive change under President Obama.

Respondents were also asked about what they thought should be the top priority of the new U.S. administration, with most identifying "dealing with global financial crisis." See www.worldpublicopinion.org.

Jewish Americans “gravely distressed” with Turkey

Leaders of five Jewish-American organizations expressed profound concern over what they described as "the current wave of anti-Semitic manifestations in Turkey."

In a January 21 letter addressed to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and made available to the Armenian Reporter, the letter's co-signers said their "Jewish friends in Turkey feel besieged and threatened" and called on Turkey to address "these disturbing developments."

They also disagreed with Turkey's harsh criticism of Israel's recent campaign in Gaza.

Mr. Erdogan called the Israeli operation a "crime against humanity" and an "evil" deed and went so far as to suggest that Israel should be barred from the United Nations. There have been numerous public demonstrations in Turkey in solidarity with Gaza.

On January 29, Mr. Erdogan joined Israel's President Shimon Peres at the Global Economic Forum in Switzerland and accused Israel of "barbarism" in Gaza, BBC News reported. The Turkish premier left the panel after the moderator, David Ignatius of the Washington Post, tried to cut off his microphone.

"We're not convinced that Turkey has earned the right to lecture Israelis about human rights," the Jerusalem Post had written in an editorial on January 5, citing Turkey's decades-long campaign against Kurdish rebels that has left tens of thousands of people dead.

The five co-signers of the letter are senior executives from the American Jewish Committee, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), B'nai B'rith International, Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish American Organizations, and Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.

The organizations have in the past supported Turkey's agenda in Washington, including opposition to congressional resolutions on the Armenian Genocide. But following recent exchanges, Turkish daily Milliyet cited Jewish-American leaders as saying they are not inclined do so any more.

U.S. study: China, India, Russia to dominate headlines in next decade

U.S. global influence will diminish and that of China and India will increase in the next decade and half, according to a study prepared by the National Intelligence Council, an in-house think tank of the U.S. intelligence community.

Predictions made in the report, "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," released last November, see the world moving away from post-Cold War dominance by the United States to what political scientists have described as a multipolar or nonpolar world.

The report also underscores importance of Russia and Iran as major exporters of fossil energy, particularly natural gas, and in case of Russia also coal.

While none of the Caucasus states was mentioned individually, the Caucasus region was mentioned four times (three times as a source of conflicts and once as an energy corridor) and Caspian energy was mentioned twice.

Below is a table showing the number of times sixteen select countries are mentioned in the report, along with size of their economies.

Country Number of mentions 2007 GDP (in bn. USD)

China 190 3280

India 138 1100

Russia 138 1290

Iran 84 285

Japan 57 4381

Pakistan 25 144

Afghanistan 22 10

Iraq 20 55

Korea (N. & S.) 20 1000+

Israel 15 164

Turkey 15 659

Saudi Arabia 8 382

United Kingdom 6 2804

Germany 6 3320

France 4 2594

Ukraine 4 142

See report at http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

European Union promises funding for Russia gas bypass

The European Commission has proposed $330 million in initial funding for what is known as the Nabucco gas pipeline. The proposal unveiled at a European Union (EU) conference held in Hungary on January 28 would need member-states' approval to go ahead. It comes shortly after the Russian-Ukrainian spat over gas supplies that left several Balkan countries without heating earlier this month.

In theory, the Nabucco pipeline would bring natural gas from Central Asia to Turkey and then on to Europe, substantially eroding Russia's current dominance in Europe's natural gas market. (The pipeline's unusual name is short for Nebuchadnezzar, the Babylonian king who according to the Old Testament freed the Jews and rebuilt their temple; there is also an opera of the same name.)

The pipeline, with an estimated price tag of more than $10 billion, has been slow to take off since it is still unclear where the gas would come from.

The United States and some of its European allies legally restrict energy cooperation with Iran, which is the second-largest gas producer after Russia and is the only real alternative.

Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which have signed off as the only suppliers so far, are unlikely to be able to supply the needed 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year; Iraq and Egypt have also been courted as potential suppliers.

At the same time, Germany and Turkey and others are supporting the North and South stream pipelines that would bring Russian gas to them via the Baltic and Black Seas, respectively.

Officials seeking to reduce Europe's reliance on Russia have called the twin pipelines a "direct threat to Nabucco project," according to RFE/RL.

Russia expands Georgia sanctions

Russian government could slap sanctions on countries and companies supplying the Georgian military, according to President Dmitry Medvedev's executive order issued on January 19.

The order "On measures banning supplies of military and dual use technology to Georgia" threatens curtailment of military cooperation between Russia and countries providing Georgia with military support and would be in effect through the end of 2011.

Prior to the war in South Ossetia last August, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey, and the United States were the largest suppliers of weapons systems to Georgia. Israel reportedly halted military cooperation with Georgia shortly before the war.

In Turkey: Dink murder trial, apology petition, and curriculum changes

The trial of the accused assassins of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink rambled on in Istanbul this week, as his friends marked the second anniversary of his death.

The Paris-based Reporters without Borders issued a statement on January 28 urging the court to keep trial proceedings "dignified," noting that one of the accused and his lawyer had repeatedly used ethnic slurs against the late Mr. Dink and his family members in attendance.

The Economist meanwhile reported that prosecutors were probing a connection between the Dink murder and the so-called Ergenekon case of alleged coup plotters. Dozens more arrests were made in the Ergenekon case on January 22.

Prosecutors refused to file "insulting Turkishness" charges against intellectuals who initiated a public apology to Armenians over the Turkey's "insensitivity" to the memory of the "Great Catastrophe," The Associated Press reported on January 26.

More than 28,000 individuals signed on to the online petition launched last December on a web site, www.ozurdiliyoruz.com, which repeatedly has been hacked, presumably by its opponents. Meanwhile, a rival site "I do not apologize" popped up and claimed the support of more than 65,000 Turks.

A state entity known as "Coordination Board to Fight Baseless Genocide Claims" decided to amend the Turkish school curriculum to remove terms like "baseless" and "so-called Armenian genocide" from eighth-grade textbooks. (The board's own name was not reported to have been changed.)

According to the newspaper Milliyet, Turkish children will now study "Turkish-Armenian relations, 1915 events, and related Armenian allegations."

Similarly in July 2007, the Turkish government reportedly instructed state officials not to refer to the term "so called Armenian genocide allegations," UlulasKanal.com reported at the time. The recommended usage was "1915 incidents" or "Armenian allegations regarding incidents in 1915," shifting official rhetoric from straightforward denial to a more ambiguous wording.

Fried tours region; Western aid to Georgia, Turkey wins UN bid

First published in October 25, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan and Lusine Sarkisyan

Active U.S. diplomacy continues in Eurasia

The Navy's U.S.S. Barry arrived in Georgia's port of Poti as State Department's Dan Fried touched down in the country's capital of Tbilisi.

Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried was in Armenia (Oct. 17), Georgia (Oct.18-20), and Turkey (Oct. 21) to discuss regional conflicts and bilateral relations, local news media reported. United States regional diplomacy has been stepped up significantly since Russian-Georgian fighting in August.

In meetings with Armenian leaders, Mr. Fried reportedly focused on the Karabakh peace process (see this week's top story) and Armenia's recent talks with Turkey. Mr. Fried said that a "strong, sovereign, democratic Armenia is important not just to the U.S., but to the region as well."

(In a similarly worded message, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who was in Yerevan on October 21, said Russia wants "the Armenian people to live in a strong, flourishing and stable state.")

Mr. Fried arrived in Georgia simultaneously with the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyer U.S.S. Barry, which made a "routine, friendly visit" to Georgia's Black Sea port of Poti from October 18 to 20. (Officials in Abkhazia, meanwhile, confirmed plans for a new Russian naval base at Ochamchir, just forty miles up the Black Sea coast from Poti.)

On his visit to Ankara, Mr. Fried was received with Ertu?rul Apakan, the Turkish Foreign Ministry's number-two, and at a subsequent meeting with media, the U.S. diplomat encouraged continued dialogue between Turkish and Armenian leaders.

According to the Turkish Daily News, Mr. Fried called Armenian President Serge Sargsian "courageous" for extending an invitation to his Turkish counterpart, and Turkish President Abdullah Gül "wise" for accepting the offer. "Sometimes taking risks is the highest realism," he said.

Mr. Fried also pledged continued U.S. intelligence help for Turkey's fight against Kurdish rebels, while urging more Turkish cooperation with Iraqi Kurdish leaders. Turkish forces have suffered numerous casualties in recent Kurdish attacks (see this page in the October 11 Armenian Reporter.)

Meanwhile, the top U.S. military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, assured the three Baltic republics, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania ­- which have been NATO members since 2004 - that they could count on U.S. military help should they ever come under a military attack.

Days earlier, Admiral Mullen met with Russia's General Staff Chairman General Nikolay Makarov in Finland, for what was described as "fence-mending talks."

Abkhazia, South Ossetia status talks stall; more aid pledged to Georgia

European, Georgian, Russian, and U.S. officials met in Geneva on October 15 to start discussions, in the words of the French President Nicolas Sarkozy, on the "future status" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and quickly adjourned until November, Civil.ge and others reported.

The parties reportedly disagreed on the format of talks, with breakaway republics insisting they should participate in the talks on their future, and Georgia objecting.

The cease-fire agreement negotiated between Russia and Georgia continued to largely hold, although several Russian and Georgian personnel were reported killed in various incidents.

Georgia also demanded a Russian withdrawal from parts of South Ossetia and Abkhazia that Georgia held prior to the August war. That position was supported by Dan Fried of the U.S. State Department, although he conceded that that situation could not be resolved "very easily" or "very soon." Russian officials said areas in question are parts of breakaway republics and would not be turned over.

At a "donors' conference" in Brussels on October 22, the United States confirmed it would be allocating $1 billion in aid to Georgia. Last month, the U.S. Congress appropriated about one-third of that amount for Fiscal Year 2009.

In all, pledges of $4.55 billion in grants and loans over three years were made, with bulk of the funds coming from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as the European Union (about $1 billion in grants and loans) and Japan ($200 million).

Transparency International (TI), a Berlin-based anticorruption organization, called for publication of the World Bank's needs assessment report on Georgia prepared in advance of the conference.

"Despite the centrality of the Joint Needs Assessment to the future of Georgia, its contents remain secret at the request of the Georgian government," TI Georgia said in a statement, adding that it was unclear how the money was intended to be spent.

151 countries vote Turkey into the UN Security Council

Turkey successfully concluded its five-year $50 million campaign for a two-year nonrenewable term on the United Nations Security Council, as it was voted in by 151 countries on October 17, Turkish and international news agencies reported.

There are a total of 192 countries with United Nations membership. Countries voted in secret, and because Turkey was competing against Austria (which also won a seat, with 132 votes) and Iceland (which did not, with 87 votes), few countries have made their votes public. But Turkey lobbied heavily around the world from Latin America to Africa to Pacific Island nations.

President Abdullah Gül described the vote as "a significant success that should be a source of joy to every citizen. The support given to Turkey is a reflection of the feelings of love and friendship that are felt for our nation and the trust the international community has in our state," the Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor (EDM) reported citing Turkish media on October 18.

Turkey's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Baki Ilkin reportedly broke down in tears of joy during a television interview following the vote.

Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish government's leading foreign policy advisor, said the outcome as "neither chance, nor bribery," even though Turkey spent $20 million paying off the debts of smaller nations to the United Nations.

Media watchdog: peace is good for press freedom

"It is not economic prosperity but peace that guarantees press freedom," Paris-based Reporters without Borders argues in its annual report released on October 22.

The report notes post-election setbacks in media freedom in Armenia (now ranked 102nd in the world, on par with Turkey), war-related media censorship in Georgia (now ranked 120th), as well as general malaise in Russia (141), Azerbaijan (150), and Iran (166).

Iceland, Norway, and Luxembourg are ranked as having the most liberal media environments. For the full report: http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=29031

On Armenians for Obama, Iraqi Christians, Turkey's UN and nuclear plans

First published in October 18, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Armenian activists meet Barack Obama’s advisor, confidante

Nora Keomurjian and Karine Birazian with Barack Obama's senior campaign advisor Valerie Jarrett, in Philadelphia on October 13, 2008. ANCA

"Armenians for Obama" activists Nora Keomurjian and Karine Birazian met with Sen. Barack Obama's senior campaign advisor Valerie Jarrett to update her on the group's activities on behalf of the presidential campaign.

During a "Pennsylvania Women for Obama" event held in Philadelphia on October 13, Ms. Jarrett expressed "deep interest in [the Armenian] community's efforts to elect Senator Obama our next president," according to Ms. Keomurjian.

Described as Mr. Obama's "big sister" and "fixer" by the New Republic, Ms. Jarrett is a Chicago lawyer and businessperson. The Wall Street Journal described her as an "insider widely tipped for a top position in an Obama administration."

Ms. Birazian is Eastern U.S. director for the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) and Ms. Keomurjian is also an activist for ANCA, which endorsed Mr. Obama.

"Armenians for Obama" is a nationwide Los Angeles-based voter registration, education, and mobilization effort dedicated to electing Barack Obama president. connect: www.ArmeniansforObama.com

Iraqi Armenians killed, wounded in attacks

An ethnic Armenian music-store owner, Farques Batool, was killed, and his nephew was wounded in attacks in Iraq's northern city of Mosul on October 13, news agencies reported. The attacks were apparently religiously motivated.

Since the surge in violence, ethnic Armenians and other Christians who had remained in Mosul, one of Iraq's largest cities, more than 4,000 people in all, have fled, most for the relative safety of Iraqi Kurdistan.

In all, at least ten people have been killed in fresh attacks blamed on Sunni radicals linked with Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The Associated Press linked the attacks to calls by Iraqi Christians for restoration of Saddam Hussein-era quotas that would give them seats in provincial councils. The Shiite-dominated Iraqi government sent police reinforcements to try to stabilize the situation in Mosul.

"Thousands of people fled virtually overnight, many with only the clothes on their back," said Jamil Abdul-Ahad, the head of an interfaith Christian council in Mosul that has been distributing aid to the displaced, The AP reported.

"Our situation needs active work, not just media propaganda from government officials," Mr. Abdul-Ahad said. "The government should protect Christians in Mosul and safeguard their rights."

Sunni extremists have regularly targeted Iraqi Christians since the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003. In addition to Armenians, Iraqi Christians include Syrian Orthodox and Catholics.

Turkey poised to win UN Security Council seat

After years of lobbying and courting countries worldwide, Turkey appeared poised to win a nonpermanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, in an election set for October 17.

All 192 UN member states were to participate in a vote in which Turkey, Austria, and Iceland would compete for two seats reserved for the Western European group of countries. In the absence of progress in its European Union bid, the Turkish government has made winning the Security Council seat a foreign policy priority.

Turkey has raised its international profile in recent years, distancing itself from U.S. policies in Iraq and Iran, mediating talks between Syria and Israel, and most recently suggesting a Caucasus regional pact with Russia. Turkey has also offered financial support to island nations and pledged to open embassies in a number of remote countries. Turkey was previously a Security Council member twice, in the 1950s and in 1961.

According to an October 16 report in Zaman newspaper, Turkey's bid for the 2009-10 Security Council term is backed by most Muslim countries, as well as a number of countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, and Latin America. In all, Turkey needs support from 128 countries to win the seat.

In addition to five veto-holding permanent members - France, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, ten other states are elected for two-year terms.

Three of the ten come from the Africa group; two each from Latin America/Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, and Western Europe; and one from Eastern Europe. One of the members is an Arab country, alternately from the Asia or Africa bloc.

In the contest for the Asia seat, Iran is expected to lose to Japan; Iran had previously served on the Security Council in 1955-56. Mexico and Uganda are expected to be elected without opposition in their respective groups. Libya, Burkina Faso, Costa Rica, Croatia, and Vietnam will continue to serve out their terms, which end next year.

The Security Council is authorized to approve military action, peacekeeping operations, and international sanctions.

Turkey still weighing nuclear power plans

The Turkish government is seeking to build two nuclear power plants - a long-delayed one at Akkuyu near the Mediterranean port of Mersin, and another near the Black Sea port of Sinop, the Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor (EDM) reported on October 10, citing Turkish media.

Although 13 consortia expressed interest in Akkuyu as the tender was announced earlier this year, only one - a joint venture between the Russian state-owned Atomstroyexport and the Turkish Ciner Group - submitted a formal bid before the deadline last month. Other companies have expressed reservations about the project's conditions, which the Turkish government has declined to renegotiate.

The Turkish government will decide whether to accept the sole Russian bid before the end of October. Russia currently supplies two-thirds of the natural gas and one-third of the oil consumed by Turkey.

According to EDM, "the general consensus in Turkey is that the AKP will eventually have to cancel the nuclear power tender" in part over concerns that the United States will perceive the project's award to Russia as another sign of Turkey distancing from the West. AKP is the abbreviation by which Turkey's governing party is known.

Turkish officials have for now pledged to continue with the tender process. Energy Minister Hilmi Guler conceded, however, that "the global financial crisis will affect large investments," including possibly nuclear plant plans.

Ilham Aliyev claims less than 90 percent of vote in re-election

Azerbaijan's incumbent president Ilham Aliyev won just over 89 percent of the votes cast on October 15 and will remain president at least until 2013; his "main rival," Milli Majlis member Iqbal Agazade was second, with 2.78 percent, according to official returns cited by RFE/RL.

Officials also claimed a voter turnout of 75 percent in an election that saw very little public interest or campaigning; the turnout in the significantly more competitive 2003 election was put at 71 percent.

Kenan Aliyev, the director of RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service, said "a lot of voters were basically forced to go to the polling stations."

Western observers working under the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe umbrella released a statement on October 16 saying Azerbaijan's presidential elections showed "considerable progress" compared to previous votes but did not meet all international commitments on democracy.

The poll "was characterized by a lack of robust competition and vibrant political discourse" and "did not reflect all the principles of a meaningful, pluralistic, democratic election," they said.

RFE/RL reported that government celebrations in Baku began before results were announced.

Azeris: Turkey is treating us as unloving step-mother

First published in September 6, 2008 Armenian Reporter

“Turkey is treating us like unloving step-mother”
Azerbaijan reacts to Gül’s coming visit to Armenia

WASHINGTON – Turkey’s blockade of Armenia is a centerpiece in Azerbaijani government’s effort to pressure Armenia. It is not surprising, therefore, that every time the subject of improved Armenia-Turkey relations comes up, Azerbaijan is irritated.

In recent years Azerbaijan has pledged to spend hundreds of millions of dollars toward the development of economically depressed eastern Turkey in order to diminish the urgency for Turkey of opening the Armenia-Turkey border. Paying for the Kars-Akhalkalaki rail bypass and airline flights between Baku and Kars have been part of this effort.

More sentimentally, Azerbaijan has tried to emulate its ethnic cousins and be a “little Turkey,” while painting Armenians as a common “evil.”

As Turkish president Abdullah Gül’s decision to accept the invitation from President Serge Sargsian to visit Yerevan became public, Turkish officials made an effort to assure Azerbaijan that the visit does not signify a change in Turkey’s Armenia policy. Under that policy, Turkey will not establish relations with Armenia unless Armenia agrees to concessions on the issues of Karabakh and the acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide.

Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov of Azerbaijan arrived in Ankara for consultations on August 29 and sought to downplay the extent of Azerbaijan’s anxiety, calling Mr. Gül’s decision “Turkey’s internal matter.” But reactions from most Baku pundits laid bare the Azerbaijani establishment’s true feelings.

Vafa Gulizade, a former Soviet diplomat who served, between 1991 and 1999, as the architect of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy under three of its four presidents, had in the past called for Azerbaijan to merge with Turkey into one state. Reacting to Mr. Gül’s upcoming visit, Mr. Gulizade complained, “Turkey is treating Azerbaijan as an unloving step-mother would treat her stepson, while Azerbaijan would want to see Turkey as our true mother,” Day.az reported on September 1. Mr. Gulizade expressed hope that the Turkish president would keep Azerbaijan’s concerns in mind while visiting Yerevan.

Ganira Pashayeva, a former TV anchor turned Majlis member who is close to the ruling Aliyev family, told APA.az on September 2 that “no Azerbaijani can agree to Turkish President’s visit to Armenia. This visit hurts us morally. That’s why I will await till the last minute that Abdullah Gul will refuse the visit.” Ms. Pashayeva also remained hopeful that Mr. Gül would make strong anti-Armenian statements if he were to arrive in Yerevan.

Another Majlis member, Anar Mammadkhanov, wrote on September 3 that Turks should not hope that they would be able to use the visit for public relations purposes, suggesting that “in terms of propaganda Armenians are clearly outplaying Turks.” A former comedian and also a friend of the Aliyev family, he warned in a caustic commentary for Day.az that Turkey is about to hand Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s only trump card – economic pressure – to the Armenians at the cost of cooling Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, “only getting in return, I hope, victory by the Turkish football team.”

Ilgar Mammadov, a commentator previously affiliated with a pro- Turkish nationalist party, offered a positive spin. He suggested that after the Russian-Georgian war, Armenia has become "even more isolated" and therefore willing to compromise with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

“Gul will try to explain to Armenians that were they to drop territorial demands against Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia would gain great advantages from economic and political cooperation.”

As in the past, a veteran of the Azerbaijani politics of the 1990s, Zardusht Alizade struck a contrarian note. “I welcome the decision of the Turkish president,” Mr. Alizade told Day.az. “Through this visit, Turkey will have more opportunities to influence the progressive, sober-minded part of the Armenian society which has long sought to normalize Armenian-Turkish relations... Meantime,
Azerbaijan should once and for all abandon illusions that anyone else, in this case Turkey, would be solving our problems on our behalf.”

—Emil Sanamyan

Russia, West in stare-down over Caucasus

First published in August 30, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Russia, West mull options in stare-down over Caucasus
Citing Kosovo, Moscow recognizes Abkhaz, Ossetian independence
by Emil Sanamyan

Russian navy cruiser Moskva (seen in earlier photo) dropped anchor in Abkhazia this week.

WASHINGTON – Moscow on August 26 recognized the independence of Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia’s rule in the early 1990s.

The bold move came just two weeks after the end of Russia’s military campaign in Georgia in defense of the two republics. It aroused a new round of condemnation from the United States and most Western states.

But it remained unclear what exactly Georgia’s Western backers could do to enhance that state’s security without undermining their own priorities.

Most observers suggested that U.S. efforts to contain Iran and continue operations in Afghanistan may immediately suffer from a cool-down in relations with Russia.

Moscow has also threatened to reciprocate with an embargo on American goods should there be any U.S. sanctions. (Both General Motors and Ford now have plants in Russia.)

For major European powers like Germany and Italy, Russian energy supplies clearly take priority over Georgia.

So far, U.S. officials have employed tough rhetoric, with some arguing that the United States should help re-arm the decimated Georgian military.

Vice President Dick Cheney will be touring Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine during the first week of September in a visit apparently intended to shore
up shaken U.S. influence. His visit will almost certainly feature more harsh talk.

The steady stream of U.S. visitors has in recent weeks included the wife of Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain and three U.S. senators, including Foreign Relations Committee Chair Sen. Joe Biden, who this week became the Democratic Party’s nominee for vice president of the United States.

In addition, two U.S. vessels arrived in the Black Sea for an earlier scheduled exercise and delivered humanitarian aid to Georgia in a show of mostly symbolic support.

Turkey’s refusal to allow larger U.S. vessels into the Black Sea prevented a more impressive show of symbolism.

Meantime, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet arrived in Abkhazia, where Russia will soon be establishing a permanent base. Russians have also promised to raise their naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea.

U.S. Coast Guard cutter Dallas (seen in earlier photo) reached the coast of Georgia this week.

Diplomatic maneuvers

President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia said his nation was “not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a Cold War,” although adding that Russia would prefer to avoid one.

Mr. Medvedev also recalled the United States’ unilateral recognition of Kosovo earlier this year and argued that the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was the only sure way to safeguard peoples’ lives there.

Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, suggested that Russia decided to take the step to recognize the two republics after France – apparently under insistent U.S. pressure – withdrew references to future talks on the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from a draft United Nations Security Council resolution, in effect supporting Georgia’s claims on the two republics.

“So, they were the ones who immediately started walking away from this diplomatic opportunity,” forcing Russia to take the “Kosovo route,” the Russian diplomat suggested.

Kosovo, however, has been recognized by 40 countries worldwide, including three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. No such support for Russian recognition is currently anticipated.

In fact, as Armenian expert Aleksandr Iskandarian pointed out this week, Russia’s move is more akin to Ankara’s recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus rather than the U.S.–initiated recognition of Kosovo, which was a long drawn-out process.

The only exceptions, in terms of open support for Russia’s position in Georgia, may come from states closely tied to Russia, such as Belarus and Tajikistan, or openly hostile to the United States, such as Cuba, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela.

Eurasian fence-sitting

A majority of Eurasian states, including the fifth permanent member of the Security Council, China, and two regional powers bordering on the Caucasus – Iran and Turkey – have taken a neutral position on the conflict.

Following a meeting between Russian and Chinese leaders at a regional summit in Central Asia, China issued a statement on August 27 that referred to “the complicated history and reality of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia issues” calling for resolution of issues through “dialogue and consultation.”

Importantly, the statement did not refer to anyone’s territorial integrity – something that for China remains the cornerstone of its foreign policy. Chinese leaders may have also taken personally the fact that Georgia launched its attack on South Ossetia on the day of opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing.

Turkey, a NATO member that recognized Kosovo, has not criticized Russia’s actions in Georgia and appeared to welcome signs of a decline of U.S. influence in the Caucasus.

Iran and Israel, both keen on courting Russia, have taken similar positions calling for a peaceful settlement without concrete assessments of the conflict.

On September 1, European Union states will meet in Paris for an emergency session on relations with Russia, but as Moreau Defarges of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) suggests, EU members will prioritize a unified message of criticism along with continued dialogue with Russia rather than any concrete sanctions.

“The West is not going to go to war for Georgia,” Mr. Defarges asserted to Radio Liberty.

Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili who was expected to attend the European summit no longer plans to; although he explained his decision with reference to a fear that he might somehow be prevented from returning to Georgia.

Briefly: U.S. on Armenia-Turkey relations, NK talks and Armenia's politics; Senate on Ambassador to Armenia nominee

First published in the June 28, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan and Yelena Osipova

U.S. official: Pres. Sargsian brings new optimism to conflict resolution efforts

Armenian president Serge Sargsian stated intention to invite his Turkish counterpart to Armenia is “an amazing development that seemed impossible a few months ago,” U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza said during the annual Turgut Ozal memorial lecture hosted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on June 24.

While on an official visit to Russia earlier this week, Pres. Sargsian said he would look for ways to improve relations with Turkey, including by inviting its President Abdullah Gül to watch the Armenia-Turkey World Cup qualification game in Yerevan this September.

Mr. Bryza reiterated the U.S. position urging Turkey to restore diplomatic relations and open its border with Armenia. But he also endorsed Turkey’s demand for Armenia to recognize the existing border between the two countries.

The official, who is also the lead U.S. envoy to the Karabakh peace process, said he hopes to set a framework for agreement over the conflict by the end of this year.

“It’s not all sweetness and light, but [after the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Russia earlier this month], it seemed these are two leaders that think in a much more similar way than was the case with Sargsian’s predecessor [Robert Kocharian],” he said.

“Both leaders [of Armenia and Azerbaijan] now seem to be pragmatic, practical and ready to explore each side’s needs when it comes to Nagorno-Karabakh settlement,” the official claimed.

Mr. Bryza focused most of his remarks on the importance of U.S.-Turkish relations, from security to energy, while also pointing to his deep personal attachment to Turkey.

Turning to Turkey’s troubled domestic politics, Mr. Bryza recalled President George Bush’s 2005 inaugural address, in which he said that “democracy, by definition, [needs] to be different in every country depending on cultural and historical circumstances.”

“So, things will happen in Turkey that may not accord with the way we structure our democracy, but we are confident that the Turkish democratic system is strong enough to work this out,” he added.

State Department’s democracy bureau head tours Caucasus

David Kramer, appointed last month as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for democracy, human rights, and labor, visited Armenia on June 24–25.

In meetings with Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian, other officials, opposition representatives and a subsequent press conference, Mr. Kramer repeated and seemingly sharpened U.S. criticism of the Armenian government’s handling of the post-election protests and calls for Armenia to “get back on a democratic path.”

In remarks akin to those made by Sen. Ben Cardin (D.-Md.) last week (see this page in the June 21 Armenian Reporter), Mr. Kramer appeared to question the credibility of the official probe into March 1 violence in Yerevan that left 10 dead and hundreds, many of them police, injured.

Prior to his current appointment, Mr. Kramer served on the U.S. Helsinki Commission, which Sen. Cardin co-chairs.

From Yerevan, Mr. Kramer proceeded to Tbilisi and Baku.

Senator delays consideration of nominee for Armenia Ambassador

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D.-Calif.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, requested a onemonth delay in the committee’s consideration of Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch’s nomination as U.S. envoy to Armenia in order to ensure that there is sufficient time for the State Department to respond to senators’ written questions, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) reported on June 24.

The Senate committee held a formal hearing on the nomination on June 19, in which committee member Sen. Robert Menendez (D.-N.J.) pressed Ms. Yovanovitch on the Bush administration’s refusal to affirm the U.S. government’s own record on the Armenian Genocide.

The committee then scheduled a vote on the nomination for its June 24 business meeting, which Sen. Boxer’s request now delays to until after the July 4 recess.

In 2006 and again in 2007, Sen. Menendez blocked the previous nominee for the position, Amb. Richard Hoagland, after the administration cut short the ambassadorial term of John M. Evans over his public remarks affirming the Armenian Genocide.

While no senator has yet indicated an intention to block Amb. Yovanovitch’s nomination, Sens. Menendez and Boxer, as well as the committee chair, Sen. Joe Biden (D.-Del.), Sens. Robert Casey (D.-Penn.), Norm Coleman (R.-Minn.), Russ Feingold (D.-Wis.), John Kerry (D.-Mass.), and Barack Obama (D.-Ill.) submitted written questions to the nominee that have not yet been answered.

Turkish, Azerbaijani interests lobby House Committee over Caucasus hearing

In written statements earlier this month, the Turkish Coalition of America (TCA) and the Assembly of Turkish American Associations (ATAA) sought to influence House Foreign Affairs Committee members on matters related to Armenia ahead of its rare hearing on the Caucasus region held on June 18.

In a letter dated June 11 and containing numerous factual flaws, ATAA tried to deny the very fact that Turkey was blockading Armenia, even suggesting that the recent football game between Armenian and Turkish youth teams in an international competition was a “good example of the access Armenia enjoys to the west via Turkey” and that “to the extent permitted by Russian forces, Turkey facilitates transit trade between the west and Armenia.”

Still, ATAA went on to justify Turkey’s unease with Armenia with reference to “Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijan.”

Writing from presumably “occupied” Azerbaijan, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, which is still formally led by the deceased president Heydar Aliyev, sent a letter protesting the views expressed during the hearing by “U.S. congressmen Mr Horwad Berman, Joe Clenberg, Brad Shermon, Adim Shiph and Frank Pellon,” the Trend News Agency reported on June 23.

Report notes link between petro-dollars, oppression

The 2008 Nations in Transit report, which studies the democratic development of the former Soviet and socialist states, noted a significant across-the-board regression in most of those states.

The report’s main co-authors Christopher Walker of Freedom House and Robert Orttung of the Jefferson Institute, spoke at the June 24 report launch hosted by Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) in Washington.

They expressed a particular concern with states having vast inflows of capital due to rapidly growing energy exports, such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, and not demonstrating improvements in terms of democratic governance. Mr. Orttung argued that while accumulated oil wealth did not cause the downturn in democracy, it is helping to entrench and sometimes deepen it.

The report’s Armenia chapter authored by Anna Walker of the Economist Intelligence Unit covered developments throughout 2007 and noted no major changes in that period other than relative improvements associated with the May 2007 Parliamentary elections.

Overall, Slovenia and Slovakia have received the best scores from the authors, with perennial outliers Belarus and Turkmenistan scoring the worst.

Connect: www.freedomhouse.org.

Briefly: Obama on Genocide; U.S. on Central Asia oil and nuclear energy coop. with Russia; Turkish MIC

First published in June 21, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Yelena Osipova and Emil Sanamyan

Obama reiterates support for Genocide affirmation

“I share your view that the United States must recognize the events of 1915 to 1923, carried out by the Ottoman Empire, as genocide,” Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said in a June 16 letter to Kenneth Hachikian, chairperson of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), the organization reported the next day.

Sen. Obama issued a similar statement on April 24 saying that “it is imperative that we recognize the horrific acts carried out against the Armenian people as genocide.”

And in a January 19 statement “On the Importance of U.S.-Armenia Relations” Sen. Obama pledged that, if elected president, he would recognize the U.S. record on Armenian Genocide, support Armenia’s development, and work to achieve “a lasting and durable settlement” in Karabakh “that is agreeable to all parties, and based upon America’s founding commitment to the principles of democracy and self determination.”

The latest communication from Sen. Obama came in response to the ANCA’s letter listing Armenian-American concerns ahead of the June 19 Senate confirmation hearing for the Bush administration’s nominee for ambassador to Armenia (see coverage elsewhere in this issue).

“The Bush Administration’s refusal to [recognize the Genocide] is inexcusable, and I will continue to speak out in an effort to move the Administration to change its position,” Sen. Obama wrote in his letter.

Meanwhile, the Turkish media, including the Turkish Daily News on June 6, have reported on Turkey’s efforts to foster relations with Sen. Obama’s campaign team in part to change his position on Armenian issues.

Speaking at the Claremont Graduate University on June 10, Turkish Consul General in Los Angeles Hakan Tekin noted “that the last three presidents of the United States, they also had similar statements during the elections,” but did not deliver on their pledges when elected, Peter Musurlian of Globalist Films reported via www.youtube.com on June 16.

At the same time, Mr. Tekin suggested that Turkish public may already favor Sen. Obama over his Republican candidate Sen. John McCain who has consistently refused to promise to change the U.S. policy on the Armenian Genocide.

Senate Committee urges U.S. to keep focus on Central Asia energy

Sen. Richard Lugar (R.-Ind.) reiterated his concerns over Russian influence on energy supplies to Europe in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on June 12. Sen. Lugar, who serves as the committee’s ranking member (most senior Republican), touted Azerbaijan as an example to Central Asian states.

“Central Asian nations need only look across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan to gain a sense of the political benefits of maintaining a second option for oil and gas exports,” he said in his opening speech in reference to the pipelines now linking Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey and thus bypassing Russia.

The United States has since sought to link up oil from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan across the Caspian to Azerbaijan to be then transported to Turkey and Europe.

Sen. Lugar also urged the trans-Atlantic community not to take “progress in Georgia and Azerbaijan for granted” and continue to bolster ties with them. He welcomed the recent appointment of the U.S. envoy to the European Union to also serve as envoy on Caspian energy; both he and Committee chair Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) have insisted on that since last year.

“Ambassador C. Boyden Gray’s appointment lends significant weight to this initiative by virtue of his close relationship with President Bush,” Sen. Lugar said.

Mr. Gray, as well as the State Department’s two deputy assistant secretaries Steve Mann and Matt Bryza, visited Baku earlier this month to discuss energy cooperation, Trend news agency reported on June 3.

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a senior advisor in Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and national security advisor in Carter Administration, shared many of Sen. Lugar’s concerns about Russia.

“We should be more active in negotiating particularly with those non-Russian suppliers who in the long run want to be accessible for the world, but in the short run are squeezed [by Russia],” he said, adding however that “long-term interdependence between the West and Russia” can have a mutually beneficial effect.

U.S.-Russia nuclear energy deal discussed in Congress

Democrats in Congress have questioned the administration’s trust in Russia and its willingness to set the U.S.-Russia Civil Nuclear Agreement into force. President George W. Bush submitted the agreement to Congress on May 13 for review.

The deal is part of U.S. efforts to win international support for U.S.- championed sanctions against Iran while facilitating U.S. companies in their efforts to secure new nuclear power plant construction contracts internationally. A similar deal on nuclear energy with Turkey came into force on June 2 following congressional approval earlier this year. (See this page in the February 9, 2008 Armenian Reporter.)

At the June 12 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, concerns focused on Russia’s unwillingness to back the United States in imposing harsher sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

President Bush made the issue of Iran sanctions the focus of his tour of Europe that ended this week.

“We want to hear whether, [the Russia-Iran nuclear weapons-related] cooperation has ceased – and what assurances, if any, Moscow has given our government,” committee chair Howard Berman (D.-Calif.) asked Acting Undersecretary of State John Rood.

Mr. Rood responded that assurances received were sufficient to “mitigate” U.S. concerns and that this agreement would establish a legal basis for a mutually beneficial nuclear cooperation internationally.

“In [certain areas] Russia possesses experience and facilities not widely available in the U.S.,” he said.

Having Russia as the supplier of Iranian nuclear fuel will decrease the likelihood of Iran enriching its own uranium, Mr. Rood told the hearing. He added he has serious suspicions about Iran himself, but said the United States needs Russian cooperation to promote global non-proliferation.

Meantime, Rep. Edward Markey (D.-Mass.) disapproved of President Bush’s recent promise to also send nuclear equipment to Saudi Arabia.

“This is a very dangerous policy and you have to have high standards [for countries you deal with] if you don’t want to see [a spread of nuclear weapons in the] Middle
East,” he said.

Turkey seeks selfsufficiency in weapons production

Turkey is working to achieve selfsufficiency in arms and aspires to become a global arms supplier, according to a study made public at Washington’s Jamestown Foundation on June 17.

The study’s author, Dr. Andrew McGregor said that Turkey’s annual arms exports would reach $1.5 billion in the next three years and that the country is aggressively seeking to increase its market share. The author noted frequent disputes between Turkey and its traditional weapons supplier – the United States – as one important motive for boosting domestic production.

Turkey is also modernizing its own armed forces, which is already one of the world’s largest, to better address asymmetric threats posed by Kurdish insurgents, and “enable Turkey to remain a regional power capable of independent action outside its borders if it feels its national integrity is threatened,” said Mr. McGregor.

See http://www.jamestown.org for the full report.

Briefly on pro-Israel lobbyists in DC, Armenia [and Turkey], Turkey's UN SC goal, Turkmen gas

First published in June 7, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. presidential hopefuls flock to pro-Israel lobby event

Underscoring the strong influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the United States, Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls addressed the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) annual policy conference held in Washington between June 2 and 4.

Sen. John McCain (R.-Az.), the GOP’s presumptive presidential candidate, sought to portray Sen. Barack Obama (D.-Ill.), as soft on Israel’s security, pointing to his previously stated readiness to negotiate with Iran’s leaders.

Sen. Obama, who this week became the presumptive Democratic nominee, hit back saying that the Bush Administration’s policies have strengthened Iran’s hand in recent years, leaving Israel less secure. He pledged to remain a “true friend” of Israel.

Also addressing the annual gathering were Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.), Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, as well Sen. Hillary Clinton (D.-N.Y.), who had not yet conceded defeat in the Democratic Party’s primary race.

American Jewish Committee reps. visit Armenia

Armenia’s President Serge Sargsian, Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian, and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian separately received Peter Rosenblatt and Barry Jacobs of the American Jewish Committee (AJC), who visited Yerevan between May 28 and 30.

AJC officials were accompanied by Ross Vartian of the U.S.–Armenia Public Affairs Committee (USAPAC). According to government press releases, the meetings focused on Armenia’s relations with U.S., Turkey, and Israel.

Mr. Rosenblatt, a retired U.S. ambassador who is AJC’s chair for strategic policy, and Mr. Jacobs, also a former U.S. diplomat and AJC’s director for strategic studies, were last in Armenia in July 1999 during a regional trip that included visits to Stepanakert, Tbilisi, and Baku.

The AJC officials’ latest trip to the region also included a visit to Turkey. Ankara has long counted on support from Jewish groups for its Washington advocacy efforts. But during last year’s debate on the Armenian Genocide resolution, AJC did not take a public position on the issue.

Minister outlines Turkey’s foreign policy ambitions

Over the next year, Turkey will open 30 new diplomatic missions, mostly in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, as part of its effort to raise the country’s global profile, Turkish foreign minister Ali Babacan said at the Atlantic Council of the United States, a Washington think tank, on June 3.

According to the Turkish press, as part of his working visit to the United States, Mr. Babacan will be meeting Vice President Dick Cheney, the secretaries of state, treasury, and energy, and members of Congress; he then will proceed to New York for a United Nations conference on June 10–11.

Since 2004 Turkey has been actively courting international support, including through financial aid to distant Pacific and Carribean island states, in the effort to win a two-year term (2009–10) on the United Nations’ Security Council.

The election is scheduled for October 16. In recent years, Turkey has been active as a mediator between rival factions in Lebanon as well as between Syria and Israel.

During his June 3 presentation, Mr. Babacan also pointed to the recent correspondence from Turkish leaders to newly elected and appointed Armenian leaders as reflecting Ankara’s desire to normalize relations with Armenia.

“Of course we have to address the past, the issue of the events of 1915,” Mr. Babacan said and restated his government’s offer of a joint commission of historians, first articulated in 2005, and Turkey’s readiness “to accept any conclusion of the commission.”

On the subject of Karabakh, he expressed support for a peaceful settlement along the lines acceptable to Turkey’s ethnic ally Azerbaijan.

Hopes revive for U.S.-backed Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan gas link

The Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan, believed to possess the world’s fourth-largest natural gas resources (after Russia, Iran, and Qatar), may be again considering building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan to export its gas to Europe while bypassing existing lines through Russia and Iran, recent diplomatic forays and media reports suggest.

Turkmen President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov visited Baku on May 19, the first such visit by a Turkmen leader since 1996. The ethnically linked nations have had frosty relations over the past decade, postponing any bilateral engagement or projects. The two countries have not yet resolved disputes over several offshore hydrocarbon deposits.

The Turkmen visit was followed by Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev’s trip to Ukraine on May 22, where he was reported to have discussed energy issues. And on May 29–30, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher and Deputy Assistant Secretary David Merkel, officials responsible for U.S. relations with Central Asia and Eastern Europe, respectively, followed up with a visit to Baku.

Most European states, especially those in Eastern Europe, are strongly dependent on Russia for natural gas supplies. Since the early 1990s the United States has facilitated the development of the Caspian-Caucasus-Turkey energy transportation route in an effort to break Europe’s reliance on Russian supplies.

—Haik Gugarats contributed to this week’s Briefing.

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Watchdog cites Turkey for denial campaign

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – The latest issue of the Southern Poverty Law Center’s Intelligence Report, released on June 3, includes a report on the Turkish government’s campaign to recruit allies in its effort to deny the Armenian Genocide.

The Intelligence Report, a quarterly investigative journal that monitors the radical right, has some 300,000 subscribers, mainly in law enforcement, academia, and political activism, plus free Internet access.

A network of U.S. scholars funded by the government of Turkey is part of an energetic campaign to cover up the Turkish genocide of as many as 1.5 million Armenians during World War I, an effort that has found success in Congress and the White House, the article notes.

The article, “State of Denial: Turkey Spends Millions to Cover Up Armenian Genocide,” by David Holthouse, tracks genocide denial from the time when Armenians were still wasting away in the Syrian desert to the present day.

“What we are seeing is a despicable rewriting of history aimed at absolving the perpetrators of mass murder and demonizing their victims,” said Mark Potok, editor of the Intelligence Report.

“It is no different than the Holocaust denial of Nazi sympathizers who claim there were no gas chambers at Auschwitz and Treblinka.”

The summer 2008 issue of the Intelligence Report can be read at www.splcenter.org.
Ex-Speaker Hastert now a lobbyist Meanwhile, Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R.-Ill.) has joined the Washington offices of Dickstein Shapiro, a law and lobby firm. The firm has done work for the government of Turkey and Turkish companies. Reached by ABC News, a spokesperson for the firm could not say whether or not Mr. Hastert would be working on projects involving that country.

A 2005 Vanity Fair article alleged that Turkish groups and individuals at the Turkish Consulate in Chicago had discussed funneling tens of thousands of dollars
to Mr. Hastert in exchange for political favors.

Mr. Hastert’s spokesperson at the time denied that Mr. Hastert had any knowledge of Turkish groups and had done no favors, Justin Rood reports for ABC News.

Briefly: Freedom House report; Senator, Congressmen in Baku; Turkish nationalist violence and Sudan-Turkey bonding

This was originally published in January 19, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

by Emil Sanamyan

Armenia’s Freedom House score unchanged
Two Washington think tanks, whose findings form part of the eligibility criteria for U.S. Millennium Challenge Assistance (MCA) programs issued their ratings this week. Implementation of a $235 million MCA program in Armenia began in December 2006.

Armenia’s economy is 28th freest worldwide, according to the annual Index of Economic Freedom released on January 15. (See story on page A1.) Meantime, a report issued by the Freedom House on January 16 again described both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh as partly free” and found no changes in levels of political rights and civil liberties there.

The think tank did not release country-by-country reports at press to explain its determinations. But overall, the “Freedom in the World 2008” report found “a notable setback for global freedom” in 2007. Among countries where the study registered such setbacks were Georgia (which remained “partly free”), Azerbaijan, and Russia (both “not free”). On the other hand, freedoms are said to have improved in Turkey (still rated “partly free”).

Senior U.S. senator, Azerbaijani Caucus co-chairs make trips to Baku
Senator Richard Lugar (R.-Ind.), ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, met with the Azerbaijani president and other officials on January 13 and 14, local media reported. The veteran U.S. senator reportedly predicted that there would be no resolution to the Karabakh conflict any time soon. He also encouraged continued U.S.–Azerbaijani security cooperation and warned of threats from Iran.

Sen. Lugar’s visit to Baku, his fifth there, was part of a regional tour that focused on promoting trans-Caspian routes for Central Asian energy exports to Europe. It also included stops in Ukraine, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.

Mr. Lugar said that he would urge President Bush to appoint a new special envoy on Caspian energy issues to promote non-Russian export routes. Russia recently signed agreements with Central Asian states on natural gas transportation to Europe.

In an October 4, 2007, letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Sen. Lugar together with Committee chair Joe Biden (D.- Del.) noted that the United States has a “long-term interest in preventing Russian domination of energy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.”

Co-chairs of Congressional Caucuses on Azerbaijan - Rep. Bill Shuster (R.-Penn.) and Turkey - Reps Robert Wexler (D.- Fla.) were in Azerbaijan on January 9–11. In addition to meeting the President, Defense Minister, and other officials, the two members of Congress also visited with the First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva, who combines duties of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation president, UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador, and chair of the U.S.–Azerbaijan Inter-Parliamentary Relations Committee.

In recent years, there has been a steady stream of congressional delegations to Azerbaijan, including two members of the House Intelligence Committee who visited in 2007. By contrast, no member of the U.S. Congress has visited Armenia since the November 2005 regional tour by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D.-Fla.), who chairs the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly.

Scholars highlight nationalist violence in Turkey
On the first anniversary of Hrant Dink’s murder, scholars speaking in Washington this week noted lack of any tangible progress in the Turkish government’s policy toward dissidents and the continued threat of ultranationalist violence. Mr. Dink, editor of the Turkish Armenian newspaper Agos, was tried in a Turkish court and targeted for assassination for speaking out on the Armenian Genocide.

Dr. Taner Akçam of the University of Minnesota, who has also been a target of the Turkish government for speaking out on the Genocide, argued at the National Press Club (NPC) on January 17 that Mr. Dink’s case demonstrates that there exists an “unwritten code” between the Turkish media, justice officials, and government in which they work together to silence any public dissent.

“To prosecute intellectuals is considered a patriotic act in Turkey,” Mr. Akçam said. He also cited the need for an organized domestic civil rights movement as the necessary prerequisite for reform as Turkey continues to seek entry into the European Union (EU).
“Turkey cannot be a member of the EU as long as they criminalize the discussion of history,” Mr. Akçam said, referring to the denial of the Armenian Genocide.

Joining Prof. Akcam at NPC was Payam Akhavan, international law professor at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, and former United Nations war crimes prosecutor. “It seems as if nothing has been learned from [Hrant Dink’s] murder and Article 301 is still being used to prosecute those who counter the government,” said Mr. Akhavan.

He acknowledged that in addition to 301 there are other provisions of the Turkish penal code that also prohibit free speech. However, he said that, “the symbolic importance of repealing Article 301 cannot be underestimated.” The Turkish government has considered revising 301, but refuses to repeal it outright.

Yektan Turkyilmaz, a doctoral student at Duke University who has researched Armenian-Turkish relations in both Yerevan and Istanbul, told the Armenian Reporter on January 14 that Mr. Dink’s case “was not just another ‘deep state’ murder,” of which there have been many in Turkish history.

He stressed that Mr. Dink’s assassination should be treated as part of a pattern that also included murders of a Catholic priest in Trabzon in 2006 and Christian missionaries in Malatya in 2007 and reflects “a new trend” and “scary” new face of Turkish nationalism. Two other priests were targeted in Izmir and Antalya last month.

While Mr. Turkyilmaz noted that “good things are also happening,” there are “even more reactionary currents” in Turkey today than at any time in recent past, and that there is “little cause to be optimistic” that things would improve in near future.

Turkey to host Sudanese leader accused of genocide
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who is held responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Darfur, will visit Ankara next week on invitation from Turkish President Abdullah Gül, Turkish media reported on January 16.

The United States and much of the international community have charged Sudan with genocide, but Turkish government sided with Mr. al-Bashir and when visiting Sudan in March 2006 Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he believed that “no assimilation or genocide was committed in Darfur.”

Mr. al-Bashir is due to be received with full honors at Turkey’s Presidential Palace on January 21. Sudan and Turkey signed a military cooperation agreement in July 2007, and a Turkish military delegation visited Khartoum earlier this month, reportedly to study ways to assist the Sudanese military.