Obama, Putin, think tanks, Azeri gas, Israelis

This was first published in the July 4, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Survey: Obama most, Putin least popular among world’s leaders

America's president is by far the world's most popular leader, according to surveys that were conducted in 20 countries and involved more than 19,000 respondents.

President Barack Obama had the confidence of more than 60 percent of respondents, followed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and German chancellor Angela Merkel with 40 percent each, the only other world leaders whose admirers outnumbered their detractors in the period between April and June of this year, when the studies were conducted.

In the countries surveyed, Mr. Obama enjoyed the least confidence in Palestine, Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, and Russia, with Turkey's public opinion evenly divided.

Meanwhile, Russian premier Vladimir Putin and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suffered from the worst negative ratings, at 50 and 49 percent of respondents respectively.

Mr. Putin was most popular in India (65 percent), China (64), and Ukraine (57). And Mr. Ahmadinejad enjoyed the most support in Pakistan (75), Palestine (57), and Nigeria (50).

When calculating worldwide averages, figures from the leaders' own countries were excluded, but both Mr. Putin and Mr. Obama had the confidence of their own publics, at 82 and 62 percent respectively.

DC think tanks: Armenia, ex-USSR backsliding on democracy

Democratic decline in Central Europe and Eurasia was widespread in 2008, according to the Nations in Transit publication released by the Washington-based Freedom House on June 30. Freedom House researchers determined that democracy in 18 of 29 countries studied suffered setbacks.

Among the former Soviet states, Georgia and Ukraine were described as "hybrid regimes" with both democratic and authoritarian tendencies, and Armenia and Moldova as "semi-consolidated authoritarian regimes."

Kyrgyzstan and Russia joined Belarus, Azerbaijan, and other Central Asian countries in a group that Freedom House calls "consolidated authoritarian states." The report singled out "petro-state Azerbaijan," which "recorded the most significant declines" in terms of democratic development.

The researchers determined that perceived democratic gains made in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan following the so-called Rose and Tulip revolutions in 2003 and 2005 were fully reversed by 2008.

Freedom House also criticized international monitors "that issued positive statements about elections in 2008 that were clearly flawed, such as those in Azerbaijan and Armenia."

Another study, released the same day by the Washington-based Brookings Institution and the World Bank, looked at evolution of democracy, governance, and corruption in 212 countries and territories between 1998 and 2008.

According to Worldwide Governance Indicators, Armenia has been backsliding in one of the six categories studied, "voice and accountability," reflecting problematic handling of elections.

Varying degrees of progress were noted in five other areas studied, including political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.

Russia clinches Azerbaijan gas supplies

Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev in Baku on June 29, 2009. ITAR-TASS

On June 29 Russian president Dmitry Medvedev paid a previously unscheduled three-hour visit to Azerbaijan, whose leader agreed to begin to sell natural gas to Russia, news agencies reported.

The initial supplies would be a modest 500 million cubic meters in 2010, but Russia expects the volumes to increase as more Azerbaijani natural gas becomes available for export in 2013. Azerbaijan already exports natural gas to Georgia, Turkey, and Greece.

The move was seen by analysts as a Russian success in a diplomatic tug-of-war, as Moscow seeks to maintain its dominance as Europe's main natural-gas supplier. As part of that effort, Russia has been trying to secure natural gas purchase contracts from Central Asian producers.

A reflection of Russian interest was the high price it is willing to pay Azerbaijan for the supplies - $350 for a thousand cubic meters (tcm); by contrast, Azerbaijani gas is sold to Turkey for $120 per tcm.

Earlier this year, European Union pledged funds to facilitate a gas pipeline that would bring it Central Asian gas, including some from Azerbaijan, while bypassing Russia. The so-called Nabucco pipeline also enjoys strong support from the United States, but has been hampered by a lack of commitment by Turkmenistan and transit issues with Turkey.

Also this week, the prime minister of Sweden, the EU's incoming president, indicated a postponement in funding for the Eastern Partnership program, citing economic difficulties. The program includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

Israel, Azerbaijan to step up military cooperation

An Israeli company will launch production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Azerbaijan, and the two countries will cooperate in other military areas, including satellite technology, Azerbaijani news agencies reported. The deals were reportedly finalized as Israeli President Shimon Peres visited Azerbaijan on June 28-29.

Since the opening of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline in 2006, Azerbaijan became one of the largest crude-oil suppliers to Israel. Israel has in turn emerged as a major arms supplier to Azerbaijan. Supplies have already including artillery systems, communications equipment, and UAVs.

Although Azerbaijan continues to threaten a military confrontation with Armenia, and during his visit Mr. Peres reportedly promised that Israel and the Jewish Diaspora "will do all [they] can to support Azerbaijan's territorial integrity," there was no immediate reaction from Armenia.

Mr. Peres' visit took place despite open opposition expressed by senior Iranian officials. And street protests in Baku were quickly dispersed by police. Still, according to the Islam.ru news service, officials decided not to hoist flags of the visiting leader's country around Baku, as they customarily do, apparently wary of incidents.

Coming up: Horserace diplomacy?

On July 6–8, President Barack Obama will visit Russia for talks that are likely to focus on Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea, but might also include discussion of Caucasus concerns.

On July 18, the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents may hold another meeting in Moscow, as both are expected to attend an annual horserace sponsored by the Russian president.

And on July 20–24, Vice President Joe Biden plans to travel to Ukraine and Georgia.

Armenians targeted in Ukraine incident

The knifing death of Sergei Bondarenko (pictured) was followed by anti-Armenian reprisals in a small Ukrainain town. Photo from Marganets.in.ua

A drunken argument deteriorated into a fight that left a local young man dead in the small town of Marganets in Ukraine's Dnepropetrovsk province.

Alla Arakelova, a lawyer for the Ukrainian-Armenian community, told Ukraine's TSN television that the June 29 incident was followed by acts of reprisal against ethnic Armenian families that forced them to flee Marganets for nearby towns. Special police forces along with Ukraine's police chief arrived in Marganets to calm the tensions.

According to TV reports, many of the local residents demanded that ethnic Armenians - all of whom are reportedly Ukrainian citizens - be expelled and the town mayor promised to check if anyone became a Marganets resident "illegally."

Armenians reportedly began to settle in the small mining town after the 1988 earthquake, while both Armenia and Ukraine were still part of USSR, but more arrived from Armenia in subsequent years, with the community numbering 50 families.

Since the Soviet collapse, ethnic Armenians along with other natives of Caucasus and Central Asia have emigrated in large numbers to Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus; in recent years they have increasingly been targeted in xenophobic attacks.

According to reports in Russian media, almost exactly a year earlier, on June 13, 2008, a similar drunken squabble in an Armenian-owned café in the small town of Verkhneuralsk in Russia's Chelyabinsk province resulted in massive fight that left an ethnic Russian dead and several others injured.

Gagik Mkhitarian, a Chelyabinsk representative for the Union of Armenians of Russia, was quoted at the time as saying that an initial fight was followed by vandalism against Armenian-owned businesses and several Armenian families leaving the town for fear of attacks. - E.S.

ANCA vs. Obama; Hillary to Serge; Gordon cleared; Turkish-Azeri lobby; Putin & Erdogan

This was first published in May 23, 2009 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

ANCA charges Obama with “grave offense” to Armenian Americans

In a strongly worded communication, the Armenian National Committee of America's chair Ken Hachikian urged President Barack Obama to "revise the course your Administration has chosen on issues of special concern to Armenia Americans."

The May 18 letter by the largest Armenian-American advocacy organization identified President Obama's recent foreign-aid request but especially the failure to uphold his pledge to recognize the Armenian Genocide as "a grave offense to Armenian Americans and a disservice to all Americans."

While continuing the Bush administration's policy of deference to Turkey and avoiding the term genocide when discussing the Ottoman-Armenian experience, President Obama and his officials have sought to emphasize the importance of Armenia-Turkey talks.

Sources familiar with discussions prior to the president's April 24 statement told the Armenian Reporter that a senior administration official had argued that the statement should forego the term genocide in order not to hinder an anticipated breakthrough between Armenia and Turkey. According to the Turkish press, the United States was also behind securing the April 22 Armenian-Turkish statement announcing progress in talks.

But the ANCA argued, "ongoing dialogue between Armenia and Turkey should have no bearing on [President Obama's] willingness to speak the truth about the Armenian Genocide; our stand against all instances of genocide should be unconditional."

[ANCA endorsed Mr. Obama's presidential bid in early 2008 and actively campaigned for his candidacy throughout the primary and general election.]

U.S. reassures Armenia on Turkey talks

A letter from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sent to Armenian President Serge Sargsian last week reiterated U.S. support for Armenia-Turkey talks.

The letter came just as Turkish leaders again ruled out normalization of relations unless Armenia makes concessions on the Karabakh issue, and an aide to Azerbaijan's president alleged that there was no progress on that issue because the United States and other mediators had a "Christian bias" in favor of Armenia.

The United States has supported Armenia's efforts to normalize relations with Turkey quickly and without preconditions, but the administration has identified no concrete timeframe and is seeking to achieve "parallel" progress in Karabakh talks.

Asked about the letter's intent, a State Department spokesperson told the Armenian Reporter that the letter was private and he could not comment on it.

The Armenian president's office said on May 15 that the letter also dealt with bilateral relations, including U.S. aid to Armenia channeled through the Millennium Challenge Corporation, whose board is chaired by Mrs. Clinton, and stressed the importance of free and fair conduct of the May 31 elections for Yerevan city council.

State Department’s new Eurasia manager confirmed

Philip Gordon, the Obama administration's nominee for assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, was confirmed by the Senate on May 14, the Foreign Policy magazine blog The Cable reported the following morning.

According to earlier reports, Mr. Gordon's nomination was held up for over a month by Sen. John Ensign (R.-Nev.) because of Mr. Gordon's opposition to U.S. affirmation of the Armenian Genocide.

According to an anonymous source cited by Greek News on May 13, Mr. Ensign decided to drop his hold, first introduced in early April, after Armenia announced it had agreed to a normalization process with Turkey in a joint April 22 statement.

Meanwhile, in response to an inquiry from Sen. Robert Menendez (D.-N.J.) as part of the confirmation process, Mr. Gordon's previous employer the Brookings Institution reported receiving more than $710,000 in funding from Turkish corporate entities since 2006. Most of the money went toward Brookings' Turkey program, run by former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Mark Parris.

In responses to Mr. Menendez's written questions, also published by Greek News, Mr. Gordon studiously avoided the term genocide, while "mourning" the deaths of 1.5 million Ottoman Armenians, recalled his support for Turkey "to come to terms with its history" and improve relations with Armenia, "if Armenia shows a real commitment to a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."

Mr. Gordon's responses indicated no change to U.S. policy of restricted engagement with authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh and continued U.S. humanitarian aid to its residents.

Turkey, Azerbaijan boosters hold Washington events

Hardly a week goes by in the U.S. capital without a public event intended to extol the importance of Turkey to the world. Less frequently, but also on regular basis, the Azerbaijani government's mercenaries gather to discuss ways to ingratiate that eccentric regime to the Washington establishment.

On May 14 Rep. Robert Wexler (D.-Fla.), chair of the House Europe Subcommittee and co-chair of the congressional Turkey caucus, held what has become a biannual hearing on Turkey. This time the hearing was titled, "The United States and Turkey: A Model Partnership."

The hearing brought together Ian Lesser of the U.S. German Marshall Fund, David Phillips of the Atlantic Council of the United States, and Stephen Flanagan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who testified to the partnership's virtues.

Also on May 14, an event, "Azerbaijan and the West: Strategic Partnership at Eurasia's Crossroads," included Glen Howard and Vlad Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, a local think tank; Brenda Shaffer of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy; and Dan Fata, until recently a deputy assistant secretary of defense dealing with the Caucasus and now vice president at Cohen Group, a lobby shop run by former defense secretary Bill Cohen.

Putin meets Erdogan, indicates no change in Russia’s Karabakh policy

Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a joint press conference in Sochi, Russia, May 16, 2009.

Meeting with visiting Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russian premier Vladimir Putin appeared disinclined to lean on either Armenia or Azerbaijan to attempt any kind of settlement of the Karabakh standoff. Mr. Erdogan apparently had promised to raise the issue with Mr. Putin after visiting Azerbaijan last week.

Talking to the media following their May 16 meeting in the resort town of Sochi, Mr. Putin reiterated the Russian policy language that it was up to the parties to find an agreement.

"As to the difficult problems that we inherited from the past, which includes the Karabakh problem, a compromise must be found by the conflicting parties themselves," Mr. Putin said, when asked about the issue by a Turkish journalist. "All other states that are helping achieve that compromise can only serve as mediators and guarantors of implementation of agreements [that might be] achieved."

The talks focused on the expansion of Russian natural-gas exports to Turkey and plans to build four nuclear reactors in Turkey with Russia's participation.

According to RIA Novosti, this was the eighth meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan since December 2004, with these frequent contacts reflecting an expanding bilateral relationship. The 2008 bilateral trade turnover surpassed $33 billion, with Russia replacing Germany as Turkey's largest trade partner. Turkey is in turn Russia's fifth-largest trade partner.

On top of energy, economic relations include more than $20 billion in contracts won by Turkish construction companies in Russia over the last decade and growing Russian arms sales to Turkey.

Chronology: Georgian-Ossetian conflict

First published in August 23, 2008 Armenian Reporter and since slightly updated.

Chronology: Georgian-Ossetian conflict

Early history

(1918–21)

As the Czarist Empire collapses, Ossetians – who are ethnic cousins of Persians and are mostly Orthodox Christians – rise up against Georgian rule. Thousands are killed in clashes before Georgia is occupied by the Red Army in 1921.

1920s–80s

Most majority-Ossetian areas south of the Greater Caucasus Mountains become the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast (Province) within Soviet Georgia. Dissent, including
ethnic grievances, are kept tightly in check.

1990–92

As Soviet Union collapses, Ossetians demand greater rights. Georgia’s newly elected nationalist leadership of Zviad Gamsakhurdia instead abolishes the autonomy altogether and sends armed Georgian units into the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, resulting in atrocities. Georgian forces are eventually forced out of Tskhinvali and Georgia agrees to a Russian-mediated cease-fire, acquiescing to de-facto loss of control over much of South Ossetia.

1992–2004

With the cease-fire patrolled by a small Russian peacekeeping contingent and the Georgian government bankrupt, relative normalcy returns to Ossetian-Georgian relations.

In the mid-1990s, Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze meets his South Ossetian counterpart and negotiates a partial return of refugees. Ethnic Ossetians return to live and work in Georgian towns and Georgians return to live and work Tskhinvali. A large black market springs up at a Georgian village near Tskhinvali.

2004–2008

Mikhail Saakashvili is elected president of Georgia after overthrowing Mr. Shevardnadze through street protests and pledges to return control over South Ossetia and another breakaway former Georgian autonomy, Abkhazia.

With help from the U.S. and Europe, Mr. Saakashvili begins to build up the Georgian army – with the country’s military budget reaching $1 billion in 2007 – and increases pressure on both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, including fighting around Tskhinvali in summer 2004 involving mortars that claimed dozens of lives.

At the same time, Georgia seeks Western support and makes joining NATO one of its major foreign policy goals and provides one of the largest contingents in support of U.S. forces in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Russia raises its profile in the long-neglected breakaway republics, extending Russian citizenship to their residents, and serving as their only conduit to the outside world. Russian leaders say they view NATO expansion into Georgia and, another former Soviet republic, Ukraine, as a hostile act.

Through spring 2008, a number of incidents take place in Abkhazia, where Georgia launched unmanned spy planes, which Abkhaz begin to shoot down with Russian help.

By summer 2008, Georgia switches its attention back to South Ossetia.

Run-up to war

June 14 – For the first time in four years, Georgian forces launch mortar fire on Tskhinvali. One person is killed and several are wounded. Russian and European mediators are unable to determine who was to blame for the incident.

June 24 – The Georgian parliament approves the government’s decision to reverse an earlier military spending cut and increases its military budget back to near the
2007 level of about $1 billion.

July 3–4 – More bombings and exchanges of fire occur, including with the use of mortars and grenade launchers, with several more people reported killed in and around Tskhinvali. The sides blame each other. Georgians force Russian peacekeepers from one of the heights near Tskhinvali. Ossetians lambast Russian peacekeepers for failing to maintain peace and begin to mobilize forces and establish defense fortifications.

July 9 – Russia acknowledges its combat plane flew over Georgia, as U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Tbilisi and tells Georgians that the United States “always fights for [its] friends.”

August 1–2 – More Georgian mortar shelling of Tskhinvali leaves 6 dead and 21 wounded; the Georgian government member in charge of South Ossetia / Abkhazia policy
arrives in Tskhinvali on August 2 for a meeting with South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity. Following that meeting, Ossetians begin largescale evacuation of women and children from Tskhinvali to Russia.

August 7 – Georgia’s artillery, including large-caliber howitzers and multiple-launch rocket systems, begin to take combat positions around Tskhinvali. After intense shelling throughout the day, Mr. Saakashvili in an evening televised addresses promises to cease fire as Georgian armored and mechanized units begin to move towards South Ossetia.

How the “4-day” Ossetian war unfolded
Some of the main developments

Friday, August 8

00:00 – Shortly before midnight Georgia’s Gen. Mamuka Kurashvili calls commander of 500 Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia Gen. Marat Kulahmetov to tell him that Tbilisi is about to begin an operation to “restore constitutional order” in South Ossetia and urges his forces to stay out of fighting.

At this time, Georgian artillery opens massive fire on the town of Tskhinvali and other areas of South Ossetia; howitzers acquired in Ukraine and Czech Repubic, and Lar-160Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems made in Israel continue shelling Tskhinvali through the morning.



01:00 – Georgian forces advance north of Tskhinvali through South Ossetia’s ethnic Georgian enclaves in an effort to interdict the Roki tunnel – the area’s only land connection with Russia. The move is anticipated by Ossetians, who deploy the bulk of their force to protect the Roki tunnel and adjacent Java district, leaving their capital of Tskhinvali sparsely defended.

[By August 9–10 this Georgian force was surrounded and largely destroyed by Russian and Ossetian forces; days later Georgian leaders admitted they were “too late” in reaching the Roki tunnel and that they underestimated Ossetian and Russian deployments in that area.]

02:00 – Georgian police spokesperson tells journalists that “Georgian [ground] attack is underway, clashes are taking place outside Tskhinvali”; Ossetians confirm engaging Georgian forces, who are using dozens of tanks and armored vehicles supplied by Ukraine and Turkey and equipped with nightvision equipment supplied by the U.S., Israel, and Ukraine. The Georgians begin to overwhelm a smaller and lightly armed Ossetian self-defense.

02:30 – Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried tells journalists in Washington: “We’re urging the Georgians to exercise restraint, but it seems the South Ossetians are the provocative party.” Mr. Fried adds that he sees no Russian involvement so far.

03:15 – In televised remarks, the Georgian government’s main war spokesperson Timur Yakobashvili urges Ossetians to surrender: “Tskhinvali is surrounded…. Illegal armed formations need to surrender.” He reports that Georgian forces have taken five Ossetian villages.

03:30 – The Ossetian leadership appeals for immediate Russian military help. Around this time, first Russian forces begin to enter South Ossetia through the Roki tunnel and build up near Java. By mid-day August 8, there were up to 2,000 Russian mechanized infantry on the ground in support of several thousand Ossetian self-defense who were facing up to 10,000 Georgian forces.

05:00 – Russia calls for an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting to protest Georgia’s actions, which Russia’s Foreign Ministry calls a “massive and treacherous attack.” The council convenes by 07:00 (11 p.m. eST), but amid disagreements between Russia and the U.S., the Security Council remains deadlocked and after days of arguments takes no position on the conflict.

06:00 – Georgian forces enter the Tskhinvali town center, after bypassing Russian peacekeeping forces. Georgia’s Israeli-upgraded aircraft attacks targets in South Ossetia, including in and near Java.

10:00 – Shortly after attending the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin tells media that Georgia’s actions “will have a response.” At about the same time, the first Russian bombing raid is reported on Georgian military targets around Gori and Kareli just south
of Tskhinvali; Russian helicopters and aircraft begin to attack Georgian forces in South Ossetia.

Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity and security detail in Java.

13:00 – The Russian Defense Ministry in a statement pledges to “protect Russian citizens” in South Ossetia. Soon after, Russia launches tactical missile strikes against Georgian army command and control center near Borjomi, as well as military targets in Gori and Black Sea port of Poti.

15:00 – A Russian tank and artillery unit breaks through a Georgian enclave and arrives north of Tskhinvali. By then Georgians claim to control “70 percent” of the town and call for a cease-fire. About the same time NATO Secretary General also calls for cease-fire.

15:10 – At a press conference in the Kremlin, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declares that “those who attack Russian citizens [in South Ossetia] will be punished. Russian officials soon brand their military action a “peace-enforcement operation” in Georgia and add that Georgia’s “territorial integrity has suffered a mortal blow,” as far as Tbilisi’s claims on South Ossetia and Abkhazia are concerned.

Georgian forces near Tskhinval. The jeep shown was later captured by an ethnic Chechen unit of the Russian army (see below).

16:00 – Russian artillery fires on Georgian forces in Tskhinvali center forcing them to retreat. The Russian Air Force attacks military targets across Georgia. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili appears on CNN, denies he launched the war, and calls for U.S. help against Russian attacks.

21:00 – Mr. Saakashvili tells Georgians that their army scored a “complete victory” in South Ossetia, while losing “30” service members; Russian TV channels that report continued fighting across South Ossetia and accuse Georgia of an attempted genocide against Ossetians, are taken off the air in Georgia.

Saturday, August 9

Overnight and throughout the day fighting and shelling takes place throughout South Ossetia, with the Russian army engaging and pushing back Georgian forces north of Tskhinvali and the Russian Air Force attacking military targets from the Black Sea to suburbs of Tbilisi.

Georgia's Czech-made Dana howitzers near Tskhinvali on August 9.

Georgian efforts to push through Tskhinvali to relieve Georgian units surrounded in Tamarasheni-Kurta enclave in the north are stalled by Ossetian forces. U.S. aircraft begin to airlift some 1,800 Georgian soldiers deployed in Iraq back to Tbilisi airport.

Later in the day, Georgians shell a Russian army column as it enters Tskhinvali, wounding the Russian commanding officer, Gen. Anatoly Khrulev, along with several Russian journalists, and destroying two Russian tanks and several armored vehicles.

Russia also confirms losing two aircraft that day, with two more lost in subsequent days, including one reportedly to “friendly fire.”

Georgia is believed to have lost most of its fleet of 12 combat aircraft.

19:00 – Mr. Saakashvili says in a televised address that the Georgian military is “sweeping out gangs, who have re-infiltrated in the north of Tskhinvali” and calls for a cease-fire with Russia. Shortly after, police spokesperson Shota Utiashvili claims that Georgians retain control of Tskhinvali and that Java and the Roki tunnel were the Georgian army’s “next target.”

Sunday, August 10

Overnight, Georgian forces begin to pull out of Tskhinvali. The Russian Air Force continues to bomb military targets throughout Georgia, including a military facility near Tbilisi airport, which causes panic and suspension of all flights into Tbilisi. Foreigners in Tbilisi begin to flee to Yerevan to take flights out. Russia begins naval blockade of Georgia and sinks a Georgian patrol boat.

10:00 – Georgia’s president’s national security advisor Kakha Lomaia says that Georgian forces are “regrouping” south of Tskhinvali. Throughout the day Ossetian and Russian units, including the special forces’ Vostok battalion comprised of ethnic Chechens, clear remaining Georgian units out of Tskhinvali.



In the evening, the Russian Air Force continues to attack targets around Georgia. Russian and Abkhaz forces begin to bombard Georgian positions in Abkhazia’s Kodori gorge.

Monday, August 11

Overnight, the Russian Air Force continues bombing raids across Georgia, including one 5 km from downtown Tbilisi. In the morning, Georgian artillery and, reportedly, one surviving aircraft fire on Tskhinvali.



In late morning, Mr. Saakashvili and visiting French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner arrive in the town of Gori, just south of Tskhinvali, to observe collateral damage sustained from Russian attacks on military targets in the town. Just after Mr. Kouchner departs from Gori, Mr. Saakashvili observes an aircraft in the sky and is shown to be running away and then hurriedly whisked away by security guards in a car convoy.

In the afternoon, Russian and Ossetian forces move out of Tskhinvali and begin to reclaim Ossetian villages to the west of town and capture Georgian positions north, east, and south of Tskhinvali.

Destruction in Tskhinval.

Meanwhile, Russian forces from Abkhazia are accompanied by Georgian police as they begin to destroy military bases in Western Georgia, citing violations of the Abkhazia peace agreements.

Czech-made howitzers abandoned by Georgian army (Aug. 12 photo by Artem Drabkin)

17:00 – British journalists on the Gori-to-Tbilisi road observe the Georgian army retreating in panic toward the capital, leaving behind dozens of tanks, artillery, and other military equipment along with civilians. It is unclear what caused the panic, as Russian forces had not yet approached Gori.

Georgian soldiers fleeing Gori.

Later in the evening, Georgian media cites Mr. Saakashvili as claiming that “Russian tanks have taken positions on approaches to Tbilisi”; the Georgian president goes on CNN to declare that Russian tanks are “surrounding” Tbilisi and “we are ready to defend Tbilisi to the last drop of blood.”

Minutes later, Mr. Saakashvili acknowledges that tanks observed near Tbilisi were those of the retreating Georgian army and not of the Russian army. He promises Tbilisi residents a “12-hour warning” before Russian forces come; this causes panic in Tbilisi. Russians deny they intend to enter Tbilisi.

In late evening and subsequent days, Russian forces begin to come into Gori and other Georgian towns without resistance to take over abandoned military equipment and
destroy military bases. Russians also sink the Georgian navy in the port of Poti and force a Georgian retreat from Abkhazia’s Kodori gorge.

Russian soldiers taking a break near Gori.

At the same time, all sides agree to a cease-fire that necessitates a Russian pullout in exchange for the creation of a “security zone” around South Ossetia and international discussions of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s status. Russia promises to pull out from Georgian into the “security zone” by August 22.

Casualties

As of August 19, the Georgian government has confirmed 146 military and 69 civilian deaths, as well as 1,199 military and 270 civilians wounded; 70 persons are reported “missing.” The death toll is expected to rise, since the Georgian army suffered a bulk of casualties in an area now outside its control.

As of August 20, Ossetian officials have confirmed the death of 133 of their residents, both civilians and self-defense fighters. The death toll is expected to rise, but few expect it to reach "more than 2,000 dead” claimed by Ossetian officials at the height of fighting.

Russian forces have confirmed 64 servicem members killed and 323 wounded.

— Compiled by Emil Sanamyan from media sources. All times shown are local Moscow-Ossetia-Georgia time which is eight hours ahead of EST.

Putin picks successor and is likely to become prime minister

This was originally published in December 15, 2007 Armenian Reporter.

by Emil Sanamyan and Nareg Seferian

WASHINGTON – Russia’s president ended months of speculation about his likely successor when he approved the choice of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as the ruling party’s candidate for president in the elections set for March 2008.

President Vladimir Putin said on December 10 that he “fully and completely” supports the choice of United Russia and three smaller pro-presidential parties of the 42-year-old Mr. Medvedev as a candidate for president, news agencies reported. Another deputy-Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov, who oversees security agencies, was believed to be the other top contender.

Mr. Putin remains overwhelmingly popular in Russia and his endorsement is seen as decisive for Mr. Medvedev’s election. On December 2, the Putin-led United Russia and other pro-presidential parties won an overwhelming majority of seats in parliament.

Russian stock markets have rallied on the news. Mr. Medvedev said on December 11 that, if elected, he will invite Mr. Putin to serve as prime minister.

Vladimir Ryzhkov, an independent member of the outgoing parliament, said that Mr. Medvedev was picked as successor because he would “without a doubt give up the path” for Putin, if he should choose to return to the Kremlin at some future time, The AP reported.

Like Mr. Putin, the would-be successor is a native of Saint Petersburg, where he was trained as a lawyer. Mr. Medvedev began his professional career in 1994 as an aide to Mr. Putin, then a mid-level official in the city government of Russia’s second-largest city, and then followed him to Moscow in 1999.

There Mr. Medvedev rose to become Mr. Putin’s chief of staff in 2003 and then deputy- Prime Minister in 2005. Mr. Medvedev has also served as the chair of the board of Gazprom, the state-owned oil and gas conglomerate, which also co-owns Armenia’s natural gas monopoly.

In addition to other duties, Mr. Medvedev coordinated the Year of Armenia in Russia in 2006. In May 2005, while working as Mr. Putin’s chief of staff, he visited Yerevan to discuss bilateral cooperation.

Briefly: Bush-Cheney on WWIII (Iran), Tehran hosts Caspian summit, Turkey on Kurdistan

First published in October 20, 2007 Armenian Reporter

National
From Washington, in brief
by Emil Sanamyan

Bush foresees “World War III” if Iran were to get nuclear weapons

President George W. Bush warned this week that “World War III” might ensue if Iran were to “have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.”

Speaking at a White House press conference on October 17, Mr. Bush confirmed his belief that Iran’s leaders “want to have the capacity, the knowledge, in order to make a nuclear weapon” and that “if Iran had a nuclear weapon, it would be a dangerous threat to world peace.”

Iran’s leaders say they have a right under an international nonproliferation treaty to enrich uranium into nuclear fuel, a capability that can be used for both civilian
and military purposes. They deny they are seeking to build nuclear weapons.

As part of a policy to rally international support for the isolation of Iran, whose leader “has announced that he wants to destroy Israel,” Mr. Bush said he “told people that if you’re interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.” He did not elaborate.

Asked about the previous days’ visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Iran, in which he reportedly expressed doubts that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and warned against an attack on Iran, Mr. Bush said that he is “looking forward to getting President Putin’s readout from the meeting.”

Mr. Putin’s comments came days after the U.S. secretaries of state and defense visited Russia and the sides failed to overcome a long list of disagreements.

Moscow has protested Washington’s plans to build missile interceptor and radar sites in Poland and the Czech Republic to counter potential future missile launches
from Iran. Such sites, they argue, would also interfere with Russia’s capabilities.

In response, Mr. Putin has threatened to pull out by December 12 of a treaty that places restrictions on conventional forces in Europe. Russia has also relaunched
regular patrols by its long-range nuclear-armed aircraft.

On October 18, the Financial Times quoted U.S. officials as saying that Washington could scale back European missile defense plans only if Iran halts its nuclear
program.

The United States and Russia also disagree on the future status of Kosovo, a breakaway former Serbian province whose independence Washington supports. Mr. Putin hinted that he would retaliate by recognizing breakaway republics that are nominally part of the Republic of Georgia, which enjoys a warm relationship with Washington.

At this week’s press conference, Mr. Bush noted that Moscow has shared U.S. concerns about Iran and supported U.S.-initiated sanctions (although only after watering them down) at the United Nations, where Russia is one of five countries with veto power.

“The whole strategy is, is that at some point in time, leaders or responsible folks inside of Iran may get tired of isolation and say, this isn’t worth it. And to me, it’s worth the effort to keep the pressure on this government,” Mr. Bush surmised.

He avoided questions on whether he would support an Israeli military strike “in self-defense” against Iran. Rumors of a U.S. or Israeli strike against Iran have been rife for over a year.

Caspian states hold summit in Tehran

Leaders of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan met on October 16 in Tehran to discuss unresolved disputes over maritime borders in the Caspian.

These disputes stem from the absence of a legal agreement over the sea and its resources. While Russia has agreed on its borders with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, the latter has yet to do so with Iran and Turkmenistan.

The summit served as the occasion for the first visit by a Moscow leader to Iran since Joseph Stalin met with the U.S. president and British prime minister there in 1943 at the height of World War II.

In a document signed with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, President Vladimir
Putin confirmed Russian companies’ plans to make major investments in Iran’s energy section. This is something the U.S. has opposed.

The five countries reportedly also confirmed their intentions not to allow forces from outside the region (meaning the United States) to use their territories to
attack fellow Caspian states.

At the same time, as the Jamestown Foundation reported citing regional media, the Caspian states remained at odds about plans for laying oil and gas pipelines under the Caspian seabed from Central Asia to Azerbaijan for subsequent export to Europe.
This is something the U.S. has championed and Russia and Iran oppose.

The meeting was only the second such summit, the first having been held in the Turkmen capital in 2002. The countries’ leaders agreed to meet again in Baku in October 2008.

Media organization sees progress in Armenia

Reporters without Borders (RSF), a Paris-based media-rights organization issued its annual Worldwide Press Freedom Index, ranking Armenia better than at any time since 2003, when RSF began to include Armenia in its studies.

Based on views of experts in 15 freedom-of-expression organizations, a network of 130correspondents and in-country journalists, lawyers, and human-rights activists, RSF ranked Armenia 77th of 169 countries studied, up from the 90th position in 2003 and 101st last year.

The new ranking likely reflects the more balanced media coverage that international and domestic observers noted during Armenia’s most recent elections in May and a handful of cases of journalists’ harassment over last year.

In Armenia’s neighborhood Georgia ranked 66th, Turkey 101st, Azerbaijan 139th, Russia 144th, and Iran 166th. Iceland, Norway, Estonia, and Slovakia topped the media-freedom list while Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Eritrea were at the bottom. The United States was ranked 38th. connect: http://www.rsf.org

Turkey’s parliament approves attack on Iraqi Kurdistan

Turkey continued to pressure the United States and Iraqi Kurdistan to act against anti-Turkey Kurdish forces in northern Iraq as the Turkish parliament, dominated by the party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his even more nationalistic opponents, voted on October 17 to give the military the go-ahead to conduct large-scale operations inside Iraq.

Ankara has for months threatened that it would invade northern Iraq, as forces collectively referred to as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) stepped up their attacks on security forces in the southeastern Turkey.

On October 18, thousands of Kurds rallied in northern Iraq to protest the vote. The next day Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani promised to fight Turkish forces attack, but no invasion appeared imminent, The Associated Press reported.

In his October 17 press conference President Bush said, “We are making it very clear to Turkey that we don’t think it is in their interests to . . . send massive additional troops into” Iraq. He said the PKK should be dealt with through “dialoguing” between U.S., Turkey, and Iraq.

Both the Bush administration and Ankara have linked the possible invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan to the passage of the Armenian Genocide resolution in the U.S. Congress.

Turkish officials have said that that U.S. should “compensate” for the possible passage of the resolution by supporting Ankara’s interests in Iraq. (See the top
story in the October 13 issue of the Armenian Reporter).

On the other hand, the Bush administration has portrayed its fight against the resolution as part of an effort to mollify Turkey and restrain it from going into Iraqi Kurdistan.

First published in October 27, 2007 Armenian Reporter

A2 The Armenian Reporter | October 27, 2007
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. tightens sanctions against Iran, warns of “serious consequences”

“The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences,” Vice President Dick Cheney told the pro-Israeli Washington Institute for Near East Policy on October 21. “We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he added.

On October 22, an Iranian delegation was in Rome for talks over the issue with the European Union’s foreign affairs commissioner Javier Solana, with no significant breakthrough reported on the main sticking point: Iran’s enrichment of uranium, a process than can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Iran has rejected offers to abandon the technology in exchange for acquiring nuclear fuel abroad, while the U.S. has refused direct talks with Iran unless it stops enrichment.

The vice president’s remarks came just days before the United States issued additional sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country’s military, and several major Iranian banks, including Bank Mellat, which has branches around the world, including one in Armenia.

The United States first introduced unilateral sanctions against Iran shortly after the Islamic revolution there in 1979. Last summer, the U.S. government pledged to provide its Middle East allies with billions of dollars worth of new weapons to
check Iran’s influence.

The tough rhetoric and new sanctions have again led to speculation about a military confrontation with Iran. But with the U.S. at this time having just one aircraft carrier group in the Persian Gulf, a largescale assault on Iranian facilities appeared unlikely in the near term. Israel has also hinted that it might launch preventive strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, unless the United States and the European Union succeed in stopping Iran’s program.

Border fighting between Turkish army, Kurds underway

Turkey bombed suspected Kurdish rebel sites and amassed up to 100,000 troops in the vicinity of Iraqi Kurdistan, international news agencies reported; but talks continued in an effort to forestall a largescale invasion.

While U.S. officials continued to oppose a major Turkish incursion in Iraq, concerned that it may lead to a larger war, Turkish leaders dismissed such concerns as “misplaced” and demanded concrete actions.

On October 21, forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) upped the ante in their decades-long confrontation with Turkey as they attacked, killing about
12, wounding 16, and capturing eight Turkish soldiers. The Kurdish operation was on a larger scale than at any point since the mid-1990s, and resulted in widespread public anger in Turkey and demands for retaliation.

Turkey responded with aerial bombing, artillery barrages and, so far, small-scale ground operations inside Iraqi Kurdistan, where some of the PKK forces are based.

It claimed to have killed dozens of PKK soldiers.

Turkish officials said they would invade on a larger scale unless the U.S. and Iraqi Kurds captured PKK leaders and shut down their camps. Ankara also threatened to close its border with Iraqi Kurdistan and reroute its trade with Iraq through Syria.

Iraqi leaders went to Ankara on October 25 and 26 in an effort to agree on actions that would “pacify, isolate and disrupt” Kurdish forces without taking direct military action against them, the New York Times reported. Earlier, the Iraqi government ordered the closure of all PKK offices in Iraq, although other officials denied there were such offices to begin with.

At the same time, Iraqi Kurdish leaders deployed their lightly armed forces closer to the border with Turkey and pledged to fight a possible Turkish invasion.

Commentators in and out of Turkey have argued that Ankara would prefer not to invade, apprehensive of a larger war with the Kurds.

Briefly: U.S. vs. Iran in the "broken region" (Caucasus), Russian and Georgian politics plus Iraqi Armenians

First published in the October 13, 2008 Armenian Reporter:

From Washington, in Brief
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. security officials flock to the Caucasus

America’s preoccupation with Iran continues to contribute to a steady stream of security officials visiting the Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan, which shares both a land and maritime borders with the Islamic republic.

On October 11 one of the coordinators of America’s Iran policy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Debra Cagan was in Armenia, where she thanked its leaders for the country’s contribution to the U.S. effort in Iraq and praised Armenian soldiers that she met there as “brave and courageous.”

Ten days earlier, on October 1, Ms. Cagan was in Azerbaijan to discuss military cooperation, Interfax reported. And during a September 11 meeting, Ms. Cagan reportedly “intimidated” a group of British parliamentarians with her rhetoric on
Iran, London’s Daily Mail claimed on September 29.

On September 27 CIA Director Michael Hayden made a stopover in Baku while on a regional tour, to discuss, as Azerbaijani news agencies reported, a possible exchange
of intelligence information and regional developments. Two House Intelligence Committee members visited Azerbaijan earlier this year.

In mid-September deputy director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency Brig. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly together with Russian security officials visited the Gabala early warning radar in Azerbaijan.

Russia offered U.S. to use the Russian facility at Gabala as an alternative to building facilities in central Europe, which Moscow argues can be used against its interests (see this column in July 7 Armenian Reporter).

While U.S. officials have declined the trade off, they did not rule out other forms of missile defense cooperation with Russia.

Meantime, a senior Azerbaijani official warned that possible U.S. use of the Gabala radar would pose a threat to Azerbaijan, RFE/RL reported on September 20 citing Turan and The AP. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said that in such an event his country would need “security guarantees” from the United States.

Fearing Iranian retaliation, Azeri officials have repeatedly said they would not allow U.S. to launch attacks from its territory.

Europe’s Caucasus envoy speaks of “broken region”

In October 2 testimony to the European Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee, the European Union’s envoy for the Caucasus Peter Semneby said that “old-fashioned, ethnically exclusive” nationalism remains dominant in the region, RFE/RL reported the next day.

Amb. Semneby said that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia lack a common identity. “Given the rivalries between and inside the countries, this identity has to be larger than the region itself,” he said. “An additional layer of identity, a European identity, is what comes to mind here.”

The European envoy said that such an identity could bring the region together based both on shared interests and common values.

In Amb. Semneby’s assessment Georgia was most advanced along the European path, but also the most vulnerable due to its conflicts with Russia. The EU, he said, had no intention of siding with Georgia in these conflicts and would continue to work with governments of Russian-backed South Ossetia and Abkhazia and in conjunction with
Russia itself.

In the Karabakh conflict, EU will focus on confidence-building measures to overcome the existing isolation between Armenians and Azeris. On domestic issues, Amb. Semneby noted that Armenia’s May parliamentary elections marked an improvement on previous polls, while in Azerbaijan the human rights situation continued to deteriorate.

***

In recent weeks, the European Parliament Foreign Relations Committee has also been discussing an annual report on EU’s relations with Turkey. The European Armenian Federation (EAF) criticized the removal of a passage on the Armenian Genocide from the draft report prepared by a Dutch Christian Democratic MEP and has advocated a reinstatement of the reference.

EAF also reported on October 3 that the same Dutch party decided to withdraw a nominee for the European Parliament over his denial of the Armenian Genocide. Mr.
Osman Elmaci, a Dutch citizen of Turkish descent, had already been disqualified to run in national elections for the same reason.

Russia’s Putin hints at staying in power beyond 2008

President Vladimir Putin said on October 1 that he would lead the list of the ruling United Russia Party in December parliamentary elections and may subsequently become prime minister, although, he has yet to make a final decision, Russian and international news media reported.

Mr. Putin is completing his second four-year presidential term in March and is not eligible to run in that election. However, commentators in Russia and abroad have
speculated that Mr. Putin could work to amend the constitution, shifting power to the post of prime minister, which he would assume.

Or, alternatively, he could temporarily hand presidential power over to a loyalist only to run for the presidency again in an early election, thus obviating the ban on serving more than two successive terms.

In a surprise move last month, Mr. Putin named a largely unknown bureaucrat Viktor Zubkov as prime minister (see this column in September 15 Armenian Reporter).

In another surprise move he appointed the outgoing Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov as director of foreign intelligence.

For now, with a high public approval rating and unrivaled influence, future developments in Russia appear to be fully up to Mr. Putin.

Georgian president’s challenger recants, leaves politics

A former ally of the Georgian president who just days ago accused him of a slew of crimes and was subsequently arrested has now recanted and reportedly decided to leave politics, Georgian and international media reported.

Irakly Okruashvili, a former influential member of President Mikhail Saakashvili’s government, also posted a more than $6 million in bail money to be released from prison before his trial on corruption charges, to which he pled guilty. Georgian television showed an irritated Mr. Okruashvili as he said his allegations against the
president were not true and that he himself was involved in criminal activity.

Upon his release Mr. Okruashvili decided to leave politics, Civil.ge reported on October 11, having just set up an opposition political party.

Still, political parties in opposition to the president said they would go ahead with the protests, claiming that Mr. Okruashvili gave his testimony under duress.

The president’s allies, meantime, claimed that the allegations against the president were part of a “conspiracy” against the country involving an influential businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili who has been at odds with the government for some time.

Two Iraqi Armenians killed by security guards
by Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – The Armenian community suffered another loss as two women were shot and killed amid continuing violence in Iraq this week.

The victims, identified as Marou Awanis and Geneva Jalal, were in a car traveling next to a convoy protected by Unity Resources Group, an Australian security firm contracted by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

The group’s representative claimed that its guards opened fire when the car failed to slow down after several warnings. The incident occurred on October 9 along the main street in central Baghdad’s Karrada neighborhood.

According to www.Iraqbodycount. org, riding in the car with the women were two children, one of whom was shot in the arm.

According to the site, 76 other civilians were confirmed killed on the same day in various circumstances around Iraq. The total death toll since the U.S. invasion in 2003 is estimated at nearly 80,000.

Private security companies which protect U.S. and other foreign personnel working in Iraq have been criticized for excessive use of force, particularly after guards working for Blackwater USA were blamed for the deaths of 17 civilians in a single incident last month.

Unity provides services for RTI International, a governance development consultant based in Research Triangle Park, N.C., and contracted by USAID for projects around the world.

Rev. Narek Ishkhanian, a priest at Baghdad’s Virgin Mary Armenian church, who officiated at the women’s funeral, told the Times of London that the shooting was “another crime against the citizens in Iraq. Every day civilians are being killed and no one is trying to stop it from happening.”

An Iraqi police official told The Associated Press that the security company apologized for the deaths and “was ready to meet all legal commitments.”

According to the Los Angeles Times, 49-year-old Basra native Mrs. Awanis was previously a scientist for Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry and after the death of her husband two years ago took up chauffeuring to make ends meet. She is survived by three daughters, aged 12, 20, and 21.

No further information on Ms. Jelal, born in 1977, was available.