Georgia: Children's crusade

All these youngsters in the Saakashvili government: Kezerashvili (born in 1978), Tkeshelashvili (1977) and now, believe it or not, MGALOBLIshvili (1973) and the mess they got themselves into, reminded me of the mythic but touching "Children's crusade"


"The Children's Crusade is the name given to a variety of fictional and factual events which happened in 1212 that combine some or all of these elements: visions by a French or German boy; an intention to peacefully convert Muslims in the Holy Land to Christianity; bands of children marching to Italy; and children being sold into slavery. A study published in 1977[1] cast doubt on the existence of these events and it is now generally accepted[2] that they were not children but multiple bands of "wandering poor" in Germany and France, some of whom tried to reach the Holy Land and others who never intended to do so. Early versions of events, of which there are many variations told over the centuries, are largely apocryphal."
see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children%27s_crusade

UPDATE: Tkeshelashvili and Kezerashvili have been replaced.

Meantime, Irakli Alasania (born in 1973) resigned his job as Ambassador to UN apparently to challenge Saakashvili (b. 1967). (Alasania is the family name of Saakashvili's mother, although the two politicians are of Megrelian descent, they are not believed to be immediately related.) Still hope for children's crusade?

The other prominent challenger is of course Nino Burjanadze (b. 1964). While Saakashvili's own preferred successor for now seems to be David Bakradze (b. 1972).

Russia, West in stare-down over Caucasus

First published in August 30, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Russia, West mull options in stare-down over Caucasus
Citing Kosovo, Moscow recognizes Abkhaz, Ossetian independence
by Emil Sanamyan

Russian navy cruiser Moskva (seen in earlier photo) dropped anchor in Abkhazia this week.

WASHINGTON – Moscow on August 26 recognized the independence of Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia’s rule in the early 1990s.

The bold move came just two weeks after the end of Russia’s military campaign in Georgia in defense of the two republics. It aroused a new round of condemnation from the United States and most Western states.

But it remained unclear what exactly Georgia’s Western backers could do to enhance that state’s security without undermining their own priorities.

Most observers suggested that U.S. efforts to contain Iran and continue operations in Afghanistan may immediately suffer from a cool-down in relations with Russia.

Moscow has also threatened to reciprocate with an embargo on American goods should there be any U.S. sanctions. (Both General Motors and Ford now have plants in Russia.)

For major European powers like Germany and Italy, Russian energy supplies clearly take priority over Georgia.

So far, U.S. officials have employed tough rhetoric, with some arguing that the United States should help re-arm the decimated Georgian military.

Vice President Dick Cheney will be touring Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine during the first week of September in a visit apparently intended to shore
up shaken U.S. influence. His visit will almost certainly feature more harsh talk.

The steady stream of U.S. visitors has in recent weeks included the wife of Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain and three U.S. senators, including Foreign Relations Committee Chair Sen. Joe Biden, who this week became the Democratic Party’s nominee for vice president of the United States.

In addition, two U.S. vessels arrived in the Black Sea for an earlier scheduled exercise and delivered humanitarian aid to Georgia in a show of mostly symbolic support.

Turkey’s refusal to allow larger U.S. vessels into the Black Sea prevented a more impressive show of symbolism.

Meantime, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet arrived in Abkhazia, where Russia will soon be establishing a permanent base. Russians have also promised to raise their naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea.

U.S. Coast Guard cutter Dallas (seen in earlier photo) reached the coast of Georgia this week.

Diplomatic maneuvers

President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia said his nation was “not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a Cold War,” although adding that Russia would prefer to avoid one.

Mr. Medvedev also recalled the United States’ unilateral recognition of Kosovo earlier this year and argued that the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was the only sure way to safeguard peoples’ lives there.

Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, suggested that Russia decided to take the step to recognize the two republics after France – apparently under insistent U.S. pressure – withdrew references to future talks on the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from a draft United Nations Security Council resolution, in effect supporting Georgia’s claims on the two republics.

“So, they were the ones who immediately started walking away from this diplomatic opportunity,” forcing Russia to take the “Kosovo route,” the Russian diplomat suggested.

Kosovo, however, has been recognized by 40 countries worldwide, including three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. No such support for Russian recognition is currently anticipated.

In fact, as Armenian expert Aleksandr Iskandarian pointed out this week, Russia’s move is more akin to Ankara’s recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus rather than the U.S.–initiated recognition of Kosovo, which was a long drawn-out process.

The only exceptions, in terms of open support for Russia’s position in Georgia, may come from states closely tied to Russia, such as Belarus and Tajikistan, or openly hostile to the United States, such as Cuba, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela.

Eurasian fence-sitting

A majority of Eurasian states, including the fifth permanent member of the Security Council, China, and two regional powers bordering on the Caucasus – Iran and Turkey – have taken a neutral position on the conflict.

Following a meeting between Russian and Chinese leaders at a regional summit in Central Asia, China issued a statement on August 27 that referred to “the complicated history and reality of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia issues” calling for resolution of issues through “dialogue and consultation.”

Importantly, the statement did not refer to anyone’s territorial integrity – something that for China remains the cornerstone of its foreign policy. Chinese leaders may have also taken personally the fact that Georgia launched its attack on South Ossetia on the day of opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing.

Turkey, a NATO member that recognized Kosovo, has not criticized Russia’s actions in Georgia and appeared to welcome signs of a decline of U.S. influence in the Caucasus.

Iran and Israel, both keen on courting Russia, have taken similar positions calling for a peaceful settlement without concrete assessments of the conflict.

On September 1, European Union states will meet in Paris for an emergency session on relations with Russia, but as Moreau Defarges of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) suggests, EU members will prioritize a unified message of criticism along with continued dialogue with Russia rather than any concrete sanctions.

“The West is not going to go to war for Georgia,” Mr. Defarges asserted to Radio Liberty.

Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili who was expected to attend the European summit no longer plans to; although he explained his decision with reference to a fear that he might somehow be prevented from returning to Georgia.

Chronology: Georgian-Ossetian conflict

First published in August 23, 2008 Armenian Reporter and since slightly updated.

Chronology: Georgian-Ossetian conflict

Early history

(1918–21)

As the Czarist Empire collapses, Ossetians – who are ethnic cousins of Persians and are mostly Orthodox Christians – rise up against Georgian rule. Thousands are killed in clashes before Georgia is occupied by the Red Army in 1921.

1920s–80s

Most majority-Ossetian areas south of the Greater Caucasus Mountains become the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast (Province) within Soviet Georgia. Dissent, including
ethnic grievances, are kept tightly in check.

1990–92

As Soviet Union collapses, Ossetians demand greater rights. Georgia’s newly elected nationalist leadership of Zviad Gamsakhurdia instead abolishes the autonomy altogether and sends armed Georgian units into the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, resulting in atrocities. Georgian forces are eventually forced out of Tskhinvali and Georgia agrees to a Russian-mediated cease-fire, acquiescing to de-facto loss of control over much of South Ossetia.

1992–2004

With the cease-fire patrolled by a small Russian peacekeeping contingent and the Georgian government bankrupt, relative normalcy returns to Ossetian-Georgian relations.

In the mid-1990s, Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze meets his South Ossetian counterpart and negotiates a partial return of refugees. Ethnic Ossetians return to live and work in Georgian towns and Georgians return to live and work Tskhinvali. A large black market springs up at a Georgian village near Tskhinvali.

2004–2008

Mikhail Saakashvili is elected president of Georgia after overthrowing Mr. Shevardnadze through street protests and pledges to return control over South Ossetia and another breakaway former Georgian autonomy, Abkhazia.

With help from the U.S. and Europe, Mr. Saakashvili begins to build up the Georgian army – with the country’s military budget reaching $1 billion in 2007 – and increases pressure on both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, including fighting around Tskhinvali in summer 2004 involving mortars that claimed dozens of lives.

At the same time, Georgia seeks Western support and makes joining NATO one of its major foreign policy goals and provides one of the largest contingents in support of U.S. forces in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Russia raises its profile in the long-neglected breakaway republics, extending Russian citizenship to their residents, and serving as their only conduit to the outside world. Russian leaders say they view NATO expansion into Georgia and, another former Soviet republic, Ukraine, as a hostile act.

Through spring 2008, a number of incidents take place in Abkhazia, where Georgia launched unmanned spy planes, which Abkhaz begin to shoot down with Russian help.

By summer 2008, Georgia switches its attention back to South Ossetia.

Run-up to war

June 14 – For the first time in four years, Georgian forces launch mortar fire on Tskhinvali. One person is killed and several are wounded. Russian and European mediators are unable to determine who was to blame for the incident.

June 24 – The Georgian parliament approves the government’s decision to reverse an earlier military spending cut and increases its military budget back to near the
2007 level of about $1 billion.

July 3–4 – More bombings and exchanges of fire occur, including with the use of mortars and grenade launchers, with several more people reported killed in and around Tskhinvali. The sides blame each other. Georgians force Russian peacekeepers from one of the heights near Tskhinvali. Ossetians lambast Russian peacekeepers for failing to maintain peace and begin to mobilize forces and establish defense fortifications.

July 9 – Russia acknowledges its combat plane flew over Georgia, as U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Tbilisi and tells Georgians that the United States “always fights for [its] friends.”

August 1–2 – More Georgian mortar shelling of Tskhinvali leaves 6 dead and 21 wounded; the Georgian government member in charge of South Ossetia / Abkhazia policy
arrives in Tskhinvali on August 2 for a meeting with South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity. Following that meeting, Ossetians begin largescale evacuation of women and children from Tskhinvali to Russia.

August 7 – Georgia’s artillery, including large-caliber howitzers and multiple-launch rocket systems, begin to take combat positions around Tskhinvali. After intense shelling throughout the day, Mr. Saakashvili in an evening televised addresses promises to cease fire as Georgian armored and mechanized units begin to move towards South Ossetia.

How the “4-day” Ossetian war unfolded
Some of the main developments

Friday, August 8

00:00 – Shortly before midnight Georgia’s Gen. Mamuka Kurashvili calls commander of 500 Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia Gen. Marat Kulahmetov to tell him that Tbilisi is about to begin an operation to “restore constitutional order” in South Ossetia and urges his forces to stay out of fighting.

At this time, Georgian artillery opens massive fire on the town of Tskhinvali and other areas of South Ossetia; howitzers acquired in Ukraine and Czech Repubic, and Lar-160Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems made in Israel continue shelling Tskhinvali through the morning.



01:00 – Georgian forces advance north of Tskhinvali through South Ossetia’s ethnic Georgian enclaves in an effort to interdict the Roki tunnel – the area’s only land connection with Russia. The move is anticipated by Ossetians, who deploy the bulk of their force to protect the Roki tunnel and adjacent Java district, leaving their capital of Tskhinvali sparsely defended.

[By August 9–10 this Georgian force was surrounded and largely destroyed by Russian and Ossetian forces; days later Georgian leaders admitted they were “too late” in reaching the Roki tunnel and that they underestimated Ossetian and Russian deployments in that area.]

02:00 – Georgian police spokesperson tells journalists that “Georgian [ground] attack is underway, clashes are taking place outside Tskhinvali”; Ossetians confirm engaging Georgian forces, who are using dozens of tanks and armored vehicles supplied by Ukraine and Turkey and equipped with nightvision equipment supplied by the U.S., Israel, and Ukraine. The Georgians begin to overwhelm a smaller and lightly armed Ossetian self-defense.

02:30 – Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried tells journalists in Washington: “We’re urging the Georgians to exercise restraint, but it seems the South Ossetians are the provocative party.” Mr. Fried adds that he sees no Russian involvement so far.

03:15 – In televised remarks, the Georgian government’s main war spokesperson Timur Yakobashvili urges Ossetians to surrender: “Tskhinvali is surrounded…. Illegal armed formations need to surrender.” He reports that Georgian forces have taken five Ossetian villages.

03:30 – The Ossetian leadership appeals for immediate Russian military help. Around this time, first Russian forces begin to enter South Ossetia through the Roki tunnel and build up near Java. By mid-day August 8, there were up to 2,000 Russian mechanized infantry on the ground in support of several thousand Ossetian self-defense who were facing up to 10,000 Georgian forces.

05:00 – Russia calls for an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting to protest Georgia’s actions, which Russia’s Foreign Ministry calls a “massive and treacherous attack.” The council convenes by 07:00 (11 p.m. eST), but amid disagreements between Russia and the U.S., the Security Council remains deadlocked and after days of arguments takes no position on the conflict.

06:00 – Georgian forces enter the Tskhinvali town center, after bypassing Russian peacekeeping forces. Georgia’s Israeli-upgraded aircraft attacks targets in South Ossetia, including in and near Java.

10:00 – Shortly after attending the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin tells media that Georgia’s actions “will have a response.” At about the same time, the first Russian bombing raid is reported on Georgian military targets around Gori and Kareli just south
of Tskhinvali; Russian helicopters and aircraft begin to attack Georgian forces in South Ossetia.

Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity and security detail in Java.

13:00 – The Russian Defense Ministry in a statement pledges to “protect Russian citizens” in South Ossetia. Soon after, Russia launches tactical missile strikes against Georgian army command and control center near Borjomi, as well as military targets in Gori and Black Sea port of Poti.

15:00 – A Russian tank and artillery unit breaks through a Georgian enclave and arrives north of Tskhinvali. By then Georgians claim to control “70 percent” of the town and call for a cease-fire. About the same time NATO Secretary General also calls for cease-fire.

15:10 – At a press conference in the Kremlin, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declares that “those who attack Russian citizens [in South Ossetia] will be punished. Russian officials soon brand their military action a “peace-enforcement operation” in Georgia and add that Georgia’s “territorial integrity has suffered a mortal blow,” as far as Tbilisi’s claims on South Ossetia and Abkhazia are concerned.

Georgian forces near Tskhinval. The jeep shown was later captured by an ethnic Chechen unit of the Russian army (see below).

16:00 – Russian artillery fires on Georgian forces in Tskhinvali center forcing them to retreat. The Russian Air Force attacks military targets across Georgia. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili appears on CNN, denies he launched the war, and calls for U.S. help against Russian attacks.

21:00 – Mr. Saakashvili tells Georgians that their army scored a “complete victory” in South Ossetia, while losing “30” service members; Russian TV channels that report continued fighting across South Ossetia and accuse Georgia of an attempted genocide against Ossetians, are taken off the air in Georgia.

Saturday, August 9

Overnight and throughout the day fighting and shelling takes place throughout South Ossetia, with the Russian army engaging and pushing back Georgian forces north of Tskhinvali and the Russian Air Force attacking military targets from the Black Sea to suburbs of Tbilisi.

Georgia's Czech-made Dana howitzers near Tskhinvali on August 9.

Georgian efforts to push through Tskhinvali to relieve Georgian units surrounded in Tamarasheni-Kurta enclave in the north are stalled by Ossetian forces. U.S. aircraft begin to airlift some 1,800 Georgian soldiers deployed in Iraq back to Tbilisi airport.

Later in the day, Georgians shell a Russian army column as it enters Tskhinvali, wounding the Russian commanding officer, Gen. Anatoly Khrulev, along with several Russian journalists, and destroying two Russian tanks and several armored vehicles.

Russia also confirms losing two aircraft that day, with two more lost in subsequent days, including one reportedly to “friendly fire.”

Georgia is believed to have lost most of its fleet of 12 combat aircraft.

19:00 – Mr. Saakashvili says in a televised address that the Georgian military is “sweeping out gangs, who have re-infiltrated in the north of Tskhinvali” and calls for a cease-fire with Russia. Shortly after, police spokesperson Shota Utiashvili claims that Georgians retain control of Tskhinvali and that Java and the Roki tunnel were the Georgian army’s “next target.”

Sunday, August 10

Overnight, Georgian forces begin to pull out of Tskhinvali. The Russian Air Force continues to bomb military targets throughout Georgia, including a military facility near Tbilisi airport, which causes panic and suspension of all flights into Tbilisi. Foreigners in Tbilisi begin to flee to Yerevan to take flights out. Russia begins naval blockade of Georgia and sinks a Georgian patrol boat.

10:00 – Georgia’s president’s national security advisor Kakha Lomaia says that Georgian forces are “regrouping” south of Tskhinvali. Throughout the day Ossetian and Russian units, including the special forces’ Vostok battalion comprised of ethnic Chechens, clear remaining Georgian units out of Tskhinvali.



In the evening, the Russian Air Force continues to attack targets around Georgia. Russian and Abkhaz forces begin to bombard Georgian positions in Abkhazia’s Kodori gorge.

Monday, August 11

Overnight, the Russian Air Force continues bombing raids across Georgia, including one 5 km from downtown Tbilisi. In the morning, Georgian artillery and, reportedly, one surviving aircraft fire on Tskhinvali.



In late morning, Mr. Saakashvili and visiting French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner arrive in the town of Gori, just south of Tskhinvali, to observe collateral damage sustained from Russian attacks on military targets in the town. Just after Mr. Kouchner departs from Gori, Mr. Saakashvili observes an aircraft in the sky and is shown to be running away and then hurriedly whisked away by security guards in a car convoy.

In the afternoon, Russian and Ossetian forces move out of Tskhinvali and begin to reclaim Ossetian villages to the west of town and capture Georgian positions north, east, and south of Tskhinvali.

Destruction in Tskhinval.

Meanwhile, Russian forces from Abkhazia are accompanied by Georgian police as they begin to destroy military bases in Western Georgia, citing violations of the Abkhazia peace agreements.

Czech-made howitzers abandoned by Georgian army (Aug. 12 photo by Artem Drabkin)

17:00 – British journalists on the Gori-to-Tbilisi road observe the Georgian army retreating in panic toward the capital, leaving behind dozens of tanks, artillery, and other military equipment along with civilians. It is unclear what caused the panic, as Russian forces had not yet approached Gori.

Georgian soldiers fleeing Gori.

Later in the evening, Georgian media cites Mr. Saakashvili as claiming that “Russian tanks have taken positions on approaches to Tbilisi”; the Georgian president goes on CNN to declare that Russian tanks are “surrounding” Tbilisi and “we are ready to defend Tbilisi to the last drop of blood.”

Minutes later, Mr. Saakashvili acknowledges that tanks observed near Tbilisi were those of the retreating Georgian army and not of the Russian army. He promises Tbilisi residents a “12-hour warning” before Russian forces come; this causes panic in Tbilisi. Russians deny they intend to enter Tbilisi.

In late evening and subsequent days, Russian forces begin to come into Gori and other Georgian towns without resistance to take over abandoned military equipment and
destroy military bases. Russians also sink the Georgian navy in the port of Poti and force a Georgian retreat from Abkhazia’s Kodori gorge.

Russian soldiers taking a break near Gori.

At the same time, all sides agree to a cease-fire that necessitates a Russian pullout in exchange for the creation of a “security zone” around South Ossetia and international discussions of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s status. Russia promises to pull out from Georgian into the “security zone” by August 22.

Casualties

As of August 19, the Georgian government has confirmed 146 military and 69 civilian deaths, as well as 1,199 military and 270 civilians wounded; 70 persons are reported “missing.” The death toll is expected to rise, since the Georgian army suffered a bulk of casualties in an area now outside its control.

As of August 20, Ossetian officials have confirmed the death of 133 of their residents, both civilians and self-defense fighters. The death toll is expected to rise, but few expect it to reach "more than 2,000 dead” claimed by Ossetian officials at the height of fighting.

Russian forces have confirmed 64 servicem members killed and 323 wounded.

— Compiled by Emil Sanamyan from media sources. All times shown are local Moscow-Ossetia-Georgia time which is eight hours ahead of EST.

Briefly: Nuclear power; Nick Burns; “Genocide Prevention Task Force;” EU on Caucasus and Saakashvili's inauguration

This was originally published in January 26, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

by Emil Sanamyan

American nuclear energy official visits Armenia
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissioner Peter Lyons was in Armenia January 21–22 to discuss the Armenian government’s plans to build a new nuclear power plant to replace the existing one at Metsamor before 2016.

The U.S. Embassy in Yerevan reported that Mr. Lyons’ talks focused on how the Nuclear Regulatory Commission “can help Armenia to develop the regulatory infrastructure needed in order to license a new nuclear power plant.”

Last November, the United States agreed to fund a $2 million environmental impact and technical feasibility study that would help the Armenian government choose the best technical solutions and project logistics.

During a visit to Armenia last April, Russia’s chief nuclear energy regulator Sergei Kirienko offered assistance with both construction and funding for the new nuclear power plant. (See this page in the December 15, 2007, edition of the Armenian Reporter .) Russia has been the sole nuclear fuel supplier to Armenia and its electricity monopoly RAO UES currently manages Metsamor.

The Armenian energy minister, Armen Movsisian, has said that he anticipates involvement by several countries in what is variously estimated to be a $1 to $2 billion project.

Top U.S. diplomat to retire “for personal reasons”
Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nick Burns intends to retire this March “to go back to family concerns,” the State Department announced on January 18. The administration intends to nominate the current ambassador to Russia, Bill Burns (not related), to replace him.

Since 2005 the outgoing undersecretary has been the U.S. diplomat in charge of negotiating international sanctions against Iran, the future status of Kosovo, mending of U.S.-Turkish relations, as well as a U.S.-India agreement on nuclear energy. Mr. Burns, 51, is due to continue to deal with the India issue after his retirement, when he intends “to pursue other ventures outside the government.”

The Los Angeles Times noted on January 19 that the move came “amid signs that U.S. efforts on key issues have been losing momentum.” As undersecretary, Mr. Burns was the public face of the department, frequently announcing and articulating U.S. foreign policy initiatives.

Last September, shortly before taking a trip to Ankara, he acknowledged difficulties in U.S.-Turkish relations since 2002 and spoke on the need to “restore” bilateral ties, particularly through “mechanisms” to clamp down on anti-Turkey Kurdish forces in northern Iraq.

He said at the time that while the Bush Administration has repeatedly acknowledged and condemned the “mass killings and forced deportations” in Ottoman Turkey, it opposes “the passage of the U.S. House of Representative’s Resolution 106, which would make a political determination that the tragedy of 1915 constituted genocide.”

That pronouncement was followed by aggressive administration lobbying against the Armenian Genocide resolution in October, a Turkish prime minister’s visit to Washington in November, and provision of U.S. intelligence to help Turkish military operations in northern Iraq since last December.

Members of Congress urge “Genocide prevention task force” to learn from Armenian experience
Four lead co-sponsors of the congressional resolution on the Armenian Genocide wrote to the co-chairs of the recently launched anti-genocide initiative on January 17 “to ensure that the lessons of the Armenian Genocide are used to help prevent future genocides.”

The letter, co-signed by Reps. Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.), Joe Knollenberg (R.-Mich.), Adam Schiff (D.-Calif.), and George Radanovich (R.-Calif.), was made available to the Armenian Reporter by Mr. Pallone’s staff.

“When addressing U.S. policy on genocide,” the representatives argued, “no serious discussion can take place that does not cover the extensive U.S. record documenting the American response to the Armenian Genocide, as well as the modern-day impact of the ongoing denial of this crime,” it read.

The “Genocide prevention task force” is co-chaired by Madeleine Albright and Bill Cohen, former Clinton Administration secretaries of state and defense, respectively. They intend to issue a report on the subject by December of this year.

As former secretaries launched the “task force” last November, they repeatedly heard questions, including from this newspaper, about their credibility on the issue. (See this page in the November 17, 2007, edition of the Armenian Reporter .) Ms. Albright and Mr. Cohen have advocated against congressional affirmation of the Armenian Genocide while both in and out of government.

European Parliament wants “more effective” Caucasus policy
The European Union (EU) was urged to “develop a clear profile and stronger presence” in the Caucasus in a resolution passed by the European Parliament on January 17, the European Armenian Federation (EAF) reported.

The resolution expressed support for “an inbuilt differentiation in the application of the [EU] policy towards the countries concerned . . . according to their individual merits”. The resolution particularly welcomes “internal political and institutional reforms undertaken by Armenia” since 2005 and urges further progress; it is also generally supportive of Georgia, although expressing concern over its government’s crackdown on opposition last November; and it is critical “of the deterioration of the human rights situation and media freedom in Azerbaijan.”

The EAF criticized the resolution for avoiding a mention of the Armenian Genocide, instead referring to “past events,” and failing to clearly condemn Azerbaijan’s anti-Armenian policies and rhetoric. Moreover, the original text prepared by MEP from Luxemburg (and its former foreign minister) Lydie Polfer also included a line endorsing “internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan.”

The final version retained that reference while also expressing support for “the right to self-determination, in accordance with UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act” and claiming “that the contradiction between the principles of self-determination and territorial integrity contributes to the perpetuation of the unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus region,” Armenpress reported.

President inaugurated in Georgia as opposition protests
Mikhail Saakashvili was inaugurated for a second term as Georgian president on January 20, local media reported.

The inauguration was attended by presidents of the three Baltic States, Poland, and Romania, as well as ministerial delegations from the U.S., Russia, Armenia, and elsewhere. The inauguration went ahead while many thousands of opposition supporters rallied in Tbilisi to protest it as illegitimate.

In his inaugural address, Mr. Saakashvili pledged to focus on overcoming poverty in Georgia’s provinces and improving relations with Russia and the political opposition, which accuses him of rigging the vote to avoid a runoff. Mr. Saakashvili was certified the winner of January 5 election with over 53% of the vote, roughly 70,000 votes above the fifty percent plus one vote threshold.

In Washington, long-time Georgia analyst Dr. Charles Fairbanks of the Hudson Institute argued on January 16 that at least 80,000 votes were added to Mr. Saakashvili’s total and his re-election in the first round was therefore invalid. The opposition claimed days after the election that as many as 110,000 votes were stolen. (See this page in the January 12 edition of the Armenian Reporter .)

But Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza told RFE/RL earlier this week that the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi concluded that while “there were irregularities of concern, there was no systematic attempt we saw to use massive fraud to change the result of the election.”

President Bush called to congratulate Mr. Saakashvili on January 14. Mr. Bryza urged the opposition to “move forward . . . accept the results and prepare for parliamentary elections,” which he said should be conducted “better.”

Western observers offer varied judgments on the conduct of the Georgian presidential election and its consequences

This was originally published in January 12, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

by Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili received 52 percent of the January 5 vote, according to official preliminary results from Georgia’s Central Election Commission, just enough to avoid a second round contest with opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze, who came second with 25 percent.

Mr. Gachechiladze, as well as seven other candidates, including exiled billionaire businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili, who came in third with 7 percent of the vote, claimed the election was fixed to avoid a second round and promised new street protests unless the results are overturned by courts.

Western observers offered divergent interpretations of the conduct of the vote and its possible consequences. The presidential election came two months after Mr. Saakashvili used force to disperse thousands of demonstrators who called on him to resign, introducing a week-long state of emergency.

Mr. Saakashvili, 40, was swept to power after November 2003 street protests against his predecessor and Georgia’s Soviet-era leader Eduard Shevardnadze, in what was dubbed a democratic “Rose Revolution.” Mr. Saakashvili went on to win more than 96 percent of the vote in early 2004 election, running virtually unopposed. He has since been credited with bringing order and economic improvements to Georgia, but also accused of increased authoritarianism and not doing enough to address poverty.

Democratic triumph vs. deliberate falsification
U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings (D.-Fla.), who led the short-term Western observers, called the election a “triumphant step” for democracy in a press conference on January 6. And on January 7 the State Department endorsed the observers’ preliminary findings that “the election in Georgia was in essence consistent with most [international] commitments and standards.”

The State Department statement also noted that “international monitors identified significant problems that must be corrected” and urged the Georgian government to investigate reports of fraud.

NATO, which Georgia seeks to join, issued a statement on January 8 describing the vote as “an important step in Georgia’s democratic development” and added that “NATO will continue to deepen its Intensified Dialogue with Georgia, and support further efforts to meet Euro-Atlantic standards.”

Meantime, veteran German diplomat Dieter Boden who led the long-term observer mission (and previously served as the United Nations Special Representative for Georgia) appeared to be much more critical in his assessment. According to Deutsche Welle, the German public radio, on January 10 Frankfurter Runschau newspaper cited Mr. Boden as saying that “there was crass, negligent and deliberate falsification during the vote counting.” According to Prime News report on the same day, a spokesperson for the OSCE did not question the accuracy of the quote but said that the interview was not published completely.

The official results diverged widely throughout Georgia. While official results showed
Mr. Saakashvili trailing Mr. Gachechiladze in most of the capital Tbilisi, the incumbent won more than 90 percent of votes in Armenian-populated Samtkhe-Javakheti and Azerbaijani-populated Kvemo Kartli provinces.

Tina Khidasheli with Mr. Gachechiladze campaign said on January 8 that returns in those two provinces showed an usually high turnout of more than 90 percent “and in some cases turnout was even 100%,” according to Civil.ge. She claimed that nationwide some 110,000 votes, six percent of all that were reportedly cast, were falsified in favor of the incumbent.

What’s next?
In interviews with the Armenian Reporter this week, long-time Georgia watchers also disagreed on possible consequences of the vote. “I have a sense of deja-vu recalling the Armenian presidential election of 1996,” said Liz Fuller, the Caucasus Manager at Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) in Prague.

“As Vano Siradeghian told RFE/RL two years later, that vote was indeed rigged to preclude a runoff between Levon Ter-Petrossian and Vazgen Manukian, as many of us suspected at the time,” she recalled. Mr. Ter-Petrossian was forced to resign 16 months after that vote.

“I don’t see Georgia as more stable in the wake of the vote,” said Ms. Fuller, “On the contrary: instability and tension will be the order of the day in the run-up to the parliamentary elections.”

Cory Welt of Georgetown University’s Eurasia Strategy Project in Washington suggested that concerns over Georgia’s stability forced the U.S. and others to quickly approve the election before reports of possible fraud could be investigated.

“Both the government and the opposition suffer from a deficit of trust,” Dr. Welt went on to say. “Many Georgians do not view Saakashvili’s government as an especially democratic one, but neither do they trust that the opposition is playing an entirely fair game.”

He argued that upcoming parliamentary elections, which may take place as soon as this spring would “at last provide the opposition with a legitimate political station.” “This election was principally a referendum on [President] Saakashvili’s rule,” Dr. Welt said. “He passed, if just barely.”

Briefly: South American nations call for Genocide recognition,Central Asian join in Genocide denial, Akhalkalaki-Kars railroad launched

This was originally published in November 24, 2007 Armenian Reporter.
by Emil Sanamyan

South American states call for international affirmation of Armenian Genocide
The recently established parliament of a regional South American organization, Mercosur, issued a resolution recognizing and condemning the Armenian Genocide, the Armenian National Committee (ANC) of South America reported on November 21.

Mercosur, which is a Spanish and Portuguese acronym for the Common Market of the South, was established in 1991 by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay to promote regional cooperation in a manner similar to the process of European integration. The 90-member Mercosur Parliament was launched at the end of last year with an equal number of delegates from each of the member states and is based in Montevideo, the Uruguayan capital.

Uruguay was the first state whose legislature formally commemorated the Armenian Genocide in a resolution passed in 1965. Parliaments of Argentina, Mercosur membership candidate Venezuela, and associated member state Chile have also passed formal resolutions on the issue.

According to the ANC of South America, the Mercosur parliament condemned the “Armenian Genocide, perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire, which took 1.5 million lives from 1915 to 1923,” expressed its support for the Armenian cause, and called on all countries to recognize the Genocide.


Turkey, Azerbaijan pull Central Asian states into Genocide denial
Officials from several Central Asian states backed Turkey’s Genocide denial during the 11th Turkish State and Communities’ Friendship, Solidarity and Cooperation Congress, held in Baku earlier this week.

The event, held on the initiative of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev and attended by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, also included the Turkmen Deputy-prime Minister, the Kyrgyz Education Minister, and the Kazakh Deputy-culture Minister. In all, more than 500 delegates from 30 countries were expected to take part in the annual congress of Turkic languages-speaking nations.

“Adoption of Armenian allegations pertaining to the incidents of 1915 in various parliaments have caused outrage and sorrow among Turkic republics” (sic), the congress participants reportedly said in a joint declaration, as mentioned in the Turkish Press on November 19.

The declaration also offered support for Azerbaijan’s position on the Karabakh conflict and support for Turkic communities in Georgia and Iraq, and called for a lifting of the international embargo against the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Unlike Turkey, however, all the other Turkic states recognize the Greek-majority Republic of Cyprus rather than TRNC.

In Washington, coinciding with the pan-Turkic congress in Baku, the Central Asia and Caucasus Institute (CACI) at Johns Hopkins University held a discussion on Turkey’s role in the two regions on November 19.

The speakers, Zeyno Baran of the Hudson Institute and Svante Cornell of CACI, agreed that while the focus of Turkey’s foreign policy has for years been on the West and Middle East, Turkey’s leaders have recently again begun to pay more attention to that part of the world.

Mrs. Baran noted that in the 1990s U.S. and Turkish interests to a large degree coincided in the Caucasus and Central Asia. This, she said, may no longer be the case now, considering Ankara’s diminished partnership with Washington and Brussels.

Mr. Cornell suggested that it was “pointless” for the U.S. and Europe to continue to call on Turkey to establish relations with Armenia, since without Armenian concessions in Karabakh this would amount to “betrayal” of Azerbaijan, and that “geopolitically speaking Armenia is expendable.”

Ms. Baran added that support that Armenia receives from the West “does not make sense” and that here is a feeling among Turks and Azerbaijanis that this is a “Christian versus Muslim thing.”


Construction of Armenia rail bypass launched in Georgia
The Azerbaijani president and Turkish prime minister joined Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili on November 21 in inaugurating the construction of the $420 million Akhalkalaki-Kars railroad, that would connect Georgia and Turkey.

Azerbaijan has lobbied for the project in an effort to remove economic arguments in favor of opening the Turkish-Armenian border, because of the existing railroad connecting Turkey and Georgia via Armenia. After failing to secure international funding for the project, Azerbaijan itself will pay for the construction on Georgian territory, amounting to $220 million.

While in Georgia, President Aliyev also inaugurated the Kulevi oil terminal on the Black Sea coast. Last year, the Azerbaijani state oil company bought the terminal from Georgian billionaire Badri Patarkatsishvili, who has since fallen out with the Saakashvili government.

This was Mr. Aliyev’s third visit to Georgia this year. In February he attended the inauguration of the Tbilisi airport renovated by a Turkish company, and in May he was in Tbilisi again, to attend the unveiling of a statue of his father and predecessor as president, Heydar Aliyev.

Nareg Seferian contributed to this week’s column.

Georgian government, opposition prepare for early elections

This was originally published in November 17, 2007 Armenian Reporter.
by Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – Georgian opposition parties that led antigovernment protests earlier this month will jointly nominate nonpartisan Levan Gachechiladze to challenge President Mikhail Saakashvili in early elections expected next January, Georgian and other news agencies reported on November 12.

The move came as many local citizens and Mr. Saakashvili’s past supporters in the West expressed “shock” over his heavy-handed crackdown against opposition protests and private media on November 7.

Mr. Saakashvili, running without serious opposition, won more than 90 percent of the vote in Georgia’s 2004 elections, but many of those who backed him then appear to have changed their minds.

“We have to chose from a lesser of two evils,” said Georgi Zhvania, brother of late prime Minister and Saakashvili ally Zurab Zhvania. “At this point this means that Saakashvili must leave.”

Still most Georgian and outside analysts believe that Mr. Saakashvili is likely to prevail if the poll is held on January 5 as proposed. The Economist wrote on November 15, “The election looks like a cynical stunt to capitalize on the opposition’s divisions and unpreparedness, in conditions in which the contest can hardly be free or fair.”

While the government lifted the state of emergency on November 16, allowing private news media to broadcast, the Tbilisi city court suspended the license of the most critical channel, Imedi TV, owned by the U.S.-based News Corporation of Rupert Murdoch. Citing damage caused to the station by security forces, a News Corp. executive had suggested earlier that it would take three months to come back on air.

The opposition nominee pledged that if elected he would reform the constitution to devolve the president’s powers to a prime minister to be picked by the parliament. “The main goal for me will be to finish with the presidential institution in Georgia,” Mr. Gachechiladze was quoted as saying by RFE/RL.

The 43-year-old owner of the Georgian Wine & Spirits, one of the largest local companies, and a member of parliament, Mr. Gachechiladze also promised to appoint former foreign minister Salome Zurabishvili as prime minister.

It is so far unclear whether the opposition’s candidate would receivethe backing of billionaire businessperson Badri Patarkatsishvili who is now wanted by both the Russian and Georgian governments and is abroad. He expressed interest in running for president himself before the nine parties agree to Mr. Gachechiladze’s candidacy.

Olesya Vartanyan contributed to this story from Tbilisi.

Georgian president cracks down on opposition

Proposes early election

This was originally published in November 10, 2007 Armenian Reporter.
by Emil Sanamyan

Georgia will hold an early presidential election on January 5, President Mikhail Saakashvili announced on November 8 amid international criticism of his government’s crackdown on protestors in Tbilisi the day before. Mr. Saakashvili said he needed a renewed “unequivocal mandate” from the nation to “tackle foreign threats,” www.civil.ge reported.

On November 7 security forces beat protestors and seized dissident television stations and the government announced a 15-day state of emergency and closure of private news broadcasters, Georgian and international news agencies reported.

Georgia is Armenia’s key conduit to the rest of the world. Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian reiterated the importance of Georgia’s stability to Armenia on November 8, saying that “Yerevan is attentively following the events in Georgia and hopes that the situation will be soon settled politically,” Mediamax news agency reported.

Many thousands of protestors held peaceful demonstrations for six days through November 7, when police used rubber bullets, tear gas, water cannon, and truncheons to disperse them. More than 500 were reported injured in ensuing street clashes, with dozens of activists detained.

Mr. Saakashvili, who has enjoyed strong U.S. support since his election in 2004, expressed fears that the protests may lead to a civil war and claimed they were fomented by the Russian government, his longtime nemesis. But with most Georgian opposition parties supporting pro-Western policies, no Russian involvement in protests was immediately apparent.

Security forces seized a station co-owned by local tycoon Badri Patarkatsishvili and Rubert Murdoch’s News Corporation, reportedly detaining its staff at gunpoint. Mr. Patarkatsishvili, who has promised to bankroll the opposition protests, said he was abroad during the crackdown.

The government announced that the state-controlled television will have a monopoly on news broadcasts and that all street protests or strikes would be illegal in the next 15 days. Opposition leaders reportedly called off further protests citing safety reasons.

Mr. Saakashvili, who himself came to power following street protests, defended the crackdown, saying that “[Georgian] democracy needs the firm hand of the authorities.” But the Georgian Catholicos-Patriarch Ilia II condemned the violence as “completely unacceptable.”

U.S. and European officials expressed “concern” over developments. A White House spokesperson, Gordon Johndroe, urged “that any protests be peaceful and that both sides refrain from violence.”

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer criticized the government’s actions as “not in line with Euro-Atlantic values.” The European Union said it would dispatch its regional envoy Peter Semneby to Georgia.

Briefly: U.S. vs. Iran in the "broken region" (Caucasus), Russian and Georgian politics plus Iraqi Armenians

First published in the October 13, 2008 Armenian Reporter:

From Washington, in Brief
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. security officials flock to the Caucasus

America’s preoccupation with Iran continues to contribute to a steady stream of security officials visiting the Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan, which shares both a land and maritime borders with the Islamic republic.

On October 11 one of the coordinators of America’s Iran policy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Debra Cagan was in Armenia, where she thanked its leaders for the country’s contribution to the U.S. effort in Iraq and praised Armenian soldiers that she met there as “brave and courageous.”

Ten days earlier, on October 1, Ms. Cagan was in Azerbaijan to discuss military cooperation, Interfax reported. And during a September 11 meeting, Ms. Cagan reportedly “intimidated” a group of British parliamentarians with her rhetoric on
Iran, London’s Daily Mail claimed on September 29.

On September 27 CIA Director Michael Hayden made a stopover in Baku while on a regional tour, to discuss, as Azerbaijani news agencies reported, a possible exchange
of intelligence information and regional developments. Two House Intelligence Committee members visited Azerbaijan earlier this year.

In mid-September deputy director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency Brig. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly together with Russian security officials visited the Gabala early warning radar in Azerbaijan.

Russia offered U.S. to use the Russian facility at Gabala as an alternative to building facilities in central Europe, which Moscow argues can be used against its interests (see this column in July 7 Armenian Reporter).

While U.S. officials have declined the trade off, they did not rule out other forms of missile defense cooperation with Russia.

Meantime, a senior Azerbaijani official warned that possible U.S. use of the Gabala radar would pose a threat to Azerbaijan, RFE/RL reported on September 20 citing Turan and The AP. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said that in such an event his country would need “security guarantees” from the United States.

Fearing Iranian retaliation, Azeri officials have repeatedly said they would not allow U.S. to launch attacks from its territory.

Europe’s Caucasus envoy speaks of “broken region”

In October 2 testimony to the European Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee, the European Union’s envoy for the Caucasus Peter Semneby said that “old-fashioned, ethnically exclusive” nationalism remains dominant in the region, RFE/RL reported the next day.

Amb. Semneby said that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia lack a common identity. “Given the rivalries between and inside the countries, this identity has to be larger than the region itself,” he said. “An additional layer of identity, a European identity, is what comes to mind here.”

The European envoy said that such an identity could bring the region together based both on shared interests and common values.

In Amb. Semneby’s assessment Georgia was most advanced along the European path, but also the most vulnerable due to its conflicts with Russia. The EU, he said, had no intention of siding with Georgia in these conflicts and would continue to work with governments of Russian-backed South Ossetia and Abkhazia and in conjunction with
Russia itself.

In the Karabakh conflict, EU will focus on confidence-building measures to overcome the existing isolation between Armenians and Azeris. On domestic issues, Amb. Semneby noted that Armenia’s May parliamentary elections marked an improvement on previous polls, while in Azerbaijan the human rights situation continued to deteriorate.

***

In recent weeks, the European Parliament Foreign Relations Committee has also been discussing an annual report on EU’s relations with Turkey. The European Armenian Federation (EAF) criticized the removal of a passage on the Armenian Genocide from the draft report prepared by a Dutch Christian Democratic MEP and has advocated a reinstatement of the reference.

EAF also reported on October 3 that the same Dutch party decided to withdraw a nominee for the European Parliament over his denial of the Armenian Genocide. Mr.
Osman Elmaci, a Dutch citizen of Turkish descent, had already been disqualified to run in national elections for the same reason.

Russia’s Putin hints at staying in power beyond 2008

President Vladimir Putin said on October 1 that he would lead the list of the ruling United Russia Party in December parliamentary elections and may subsequently become prime minister, although, he has yet to make a final decision, Russian and international news media reported.

Mr. Putin is completing his second four-year presidential term in March and is not eligible to run in that election. However, commentators in Russia and abroad have
speculated that Mr. Putin could work to amend the constitution, shifting power to the post of prime minister, which he would assume.

Or, alternatively, he could temporarily hand presidential power over to a loyalist only to run for the presidency again in an early election, thus obviating the ban on serving more than two successive terms.

In a surprise move last month, Mr. Putin named a largely unknown bureaucrat Viktor Zubkov as prime minister (see this column in September 15 Armenian Reporter).

In another surprise move he appointed the outgoing Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov as director of foreign intelligence.

For now, with a high public approval rating and unrivaled influence, future developments in Russia appear to be fully up to Mr. Putin.

Georgian president’s challenger recants, leaves politics

A former ally of the Georgian president who just days ago accused him of a slew of crimes and was subsequently arrested has now recanted and reportedly decided to leave politics, Georgian and international media reported.

Irakly Okruashvili, a former influential member of President Mikhail Saakashvili’s government, also posted a more than $6 million in bail money to be released from prison before his trial on corruption charges, to which he pled guilty. Georgian television showed an irritated Mr. Okruashvili as he said his allegations against the
president were not true and that he himself was involved in criminal activity.

Upon his release Mr. Okruashvili decided to leave politics, Civil.ge reported on October 11, having just set up an opposition political party.

Still, political parties in opposition to the president said they would go ahead with the protests, claiming that Mr. Okruashvili gave his testimony under duress.

The president’s allies, meantime, claimed that the allegations against the president were part of a “conspiracy” against the country involving an influential businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili who has been at odds with the government for some time.

Two Iraqi Armenians killed by security guards
by Emil Sanamyan

WASHINGTON – The Armenian community suffered another loss as two women were shot and killed amid continuing violence in Iraq this week.

The victims, identified as Marou Awanis and Geneva Jalal, were in a car traveling next to a convoy protected by Unity Resources Group, an Australian security firm contracted by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

The group’s representative claimed that its guards opened fire when the car failed to slow down after several warnings. The incident occurred on October 9 along the main street in central Baghdad’s Karrada neighborhood.

According to www.Iraqbodycount. org, riding in the car with the women were two children, one of whom was shot in the arm.

According to the site, 76 other civilians were confirmed killed on the same day in various circumstances around Iraq. The total death toll since the U.S. invasion in 2003 is estimated at nearly 80,000.

Private security companies which protect U.S. and other foreign personnel working in Iraq have been criticized for excessive use of force, particularly after guards working for Blackwater USA were blamed for the deaths of 17 civilians in a single incident last month.

Unity provides services for RTI International, a governance development consultant based in Research Triangle Park, N.C., and contracted by USAID for projects around the world.

Rev. Narek Ishkhanian, a priest at Baghdad’s Virgin Mary Armenian church, who officiated at the women’s funeral, told the Times of London that the shooting was “another crime against the citizens in Iraq. Every day civilians are being killed and no one is trying to stop it from happening.”

An Iraqi police official told The Associated Press that the security company apologized for the deaths and “was ready to meet all legal commitments.”

According to the Los Angeles Times, 49-year-old Basra native Mrs. Awanis was previously a scientist for Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry and after the death of her husband two years ago took up chauffeuring to make ends meet. She is survived by three daughters, aged 12, 20, and 21.

No further information on Ms. Jelal, born in 1977, was available.