Team Obama takes shape

First published in December 6, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Obama administration’s national security team takes shape
by Emil Sanamyan
Hillary Clinton with Barack Obama.

Washington, - President-elect Barack Obama will appoint his main Democratic primary election opponent Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York as secretary of state; keep the serving Bush administration Defense Secretary Robert Gates; and nominate retired Gen. James Jones as national security advisor.

Mr. Obama made these plans public on December 1, seven weeks before he is set to be inaugurated as president of the United States.

Asked to comment about the choices in terms of Armenian concerns, Ross Vartian, executive director of the U.S.-Armenia Public Affairs Committee (USAPAC), said it will be up to President Obama to make key decisions and for the officials he appoints to implement them.

"Going forward, we will have a president who has repeatedly and clearly pledged to affirm the Armenian Genocide, achieve a Karabakh peace settlement based on the principle of self-determination, and expand U.S. relations with Armenia," Mr. Vartian told the Armenian Reporter.

Vice President-elect Joe Biden, who serves as chair of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, also has a strong Senate record on the affirmation of the Armenian Genocide.

Sen. Clinton as secretary of state

Armenian-American organizations, including the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) and the Armenian Assembly of America, welcomed Sen. Clinton's selection, citing her record in the Senate and pledges while a candidate for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

According to the Turkish daily Hurriyet, anonymous Turkish officials have reportedly also welcomed the president-elect's choice. According to the newspaper, Mrs. Clinton is seen in Turkey "as an experienced and centrist figure with a positive understanding of Turkey."

As a senator, Mrs. Clinton supported congressional measures to affirm the U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide and signed letters to President George W. Bush urging him to do the same.

A statement issued by Mrs. Clinton's election campaign on January 24, 2008, said, "I believe the horrible events perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire against Armenians constitute a clear case of genocide." She pledged to "recognize the Armenian Genocide" if elected president.

In that statement, Mrs. Clinton also promised "to expand and improve U.S.-Armenia relations," including an increase in U.S. aid "to Armenia and the people of Nagorno Karabagh," as well as helping reach a "fair and democratic resolution of the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict."

Sec. Gates as secretary of defense

President-elect Obama has also asked Defense Secretary Gates to stay in office for at least another year. Mr. Gates was appointed by President Bush following the November 2006 midterm congressional elections, replacing the controversial Donald Rumsfeld.

Last year, Mr. Gates participated in the Bush administration's lobbying effort in opposition to the House of Representatives' resolution on the Armenian Genocide.

In March 2007 Defense Secretary Gates co-signed a letter with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) arguing that passage of the House resolution would "significantly endanger U.S. national security interests."

And in October of last year, Mr. Gates told a Pentagon news conference that a resolution, if passed, would damage U.S.-Turkey relations "perhaps beyond repair" and "do real harm" to U.S. troops in Iraq, The Associated Press reported at the time.

In the same period, Mr. Gates spoke shortly after his meeting with Serge Sargsian, who was Armenia's prime minister at the time; both officials said after the meeting that they did not discuss the resolution. (Armenian officials have historically refused to weigh in on congressional debates, although they have broadly welcomed international recognition of the Armenian Genocide.)

In those comments, Mr. Gates also said that he "worked [the Armenian Genocide] issue" while deputy national security advisor to President George H. W. Bush in 1990, when a Senate resolution was championed by then-Minority leader Robert Dole (R.-Kan.)

Gen. Jones as national security advisor

Retired Marine Corps General James Jones will serve as the incoming president's chief aide on national security matters. As national security advisor, Gen. Jones will coordinate the work of various agencies such as the State Department and the Pentagon.

Like President-elect Obama, Gen. Jones spent much of his childhood abroad, in his case in France. But graduating from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in 1966, Mr. Jones switched to a military career and service in the Vietnam War.

Gen. Jones last served as commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from 2003 to 2006. In that capacity he worked with other NATO governments and militaries, including those of Turkey and NATO partner states in the Caucasus.

In a June 2003 interview with Armenia's Mediamax news agency, Gen. Jones highlighted the importance of Armenia's hosting of the Cooperative Best Effort exercises in the NATO Partnership for Peace framework.

And in September 2004, Gen. Jones canceled a similar exercise in Azerbaijan after its government barred Armenian officers from attending.

In his March 2005 testimony to the Senate Armed Service Committee, Gen. Jones spoke of Armenia's region as "increasingly important to [U.S.] interests." Calling Armenia's region a "pivot point" for the states of Central Asia and Middle East, he highlighted the importance of Caspian energy resources and the Caucasus serving as a transit point for air-delivered supplies to U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Samantha Power is back

Samantha Power (on right) during a presentation of Carla Garapedian's (on left) Armenian Genocide documentary at Harvard in 2007. Harvard News Office

Washington, - Harvard University professor Samantha Power, who resigned last March from the Obama campaign after calling his then-rival Sen. Clinton "a monster," is now back working for President-elect Obama's transition team.

A close Obama advisor, Ms. Power has been a strong supporter of Armenian Genocide affirmation. In a video address released by the ANCA last January, she encouraged Armenian-Americans to support Mr. Obama as someone who has a "willingness to challenge conventional wisdom and conventional Washington," and when it came to the Armenian Genocide "call a ‘spade a spade'; and to speak the truth about it."

According to www.change.gov, cited by Politico on November 28, Ms. Power is part of the President-elect's team now studying State Department personnel, operations, and policy, and working to "ensure that senior appointees have the information necessary to complete the confirmation process, lead their departments, and begin implementing signature policy initiatives immediately after they are sworn in."

It is unclear what, if any, formal position Ms. Power may be offered in the Obama administration.

U.S. sees FSU role in Afghan supplies; NATO on Russia, Ukraine, Georgia; Azeris, Turks seek Turkmen links

First published in December 6, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S. considers Caucasus to Central Asia route to supply Afghanistan forces

Gen. Duncan McNabb. . AP.

With an increasingly unstable Pakistan, the United States is looking into the possibility of supplying its forces in Afghanistan via the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Washington Post reported on November 18 citing Pentagon documents. Since President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to increase the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, the need for additional supplies may add to existing concerns.

There are currently 67,000 allied soldiers in Afghanistan, of whom about half are Americans. According to the Post, 75 percent of all supplies to these forces, such as food, gas, and military equipment, currently come from Pakistan or through its port of Karachi, from where they are taken by truck into Afghanistan. Truckers have come under increased Taliban attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A spokesperson for U.S. forces in Afghanistan denied the attacks have affected military operations. Nevertheless, the Defense Department dispatched head of the U.S. Transportation Command Gen. Duncan McNabb to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in mid-November.

Since 2001, the U.S. has used the Caucasus to Central Asia air corridor, but not the land route which would have to start at one of Georgian ports then cross Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, and one or more Central Asian states before reaching Afghanistan. Shipments would be conducted by a contractor who would need to hire local security.

Pentagon documents cited by the Post suggest that the U.S. already secured Georgia's approval for what it called a "northern route," and was in talks with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The Pentagon said it did "not expect transit agreements with Iran or Uzbekistan."

But according to a Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) analysis published on November 19, the United States will have to continue to rely on Pakistan for most of its supplies, with a much longer and more complicated Central Asian route potentially serving as a reserve option. In addition to the logistics of that route, the United States would have to take into account Russia's increasingly prominent role in Central Asia.

According to the Post, this year Russia agreed to facilitate nonlethal supplies to pass from Europe through its rail system into Central Asia and from there by truck to Afghanistan.

NATO: contacts to resume with Russia; no new decisions on Georgia, Ukraine

de Hoop Scheffer talking to Tkeshelashvili

Meeting on December 2, NATO foreign ministers agreed to resume some of of the alliance's contacts with Russia, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported. The relations were suspended three months earlier over Russian military intervention in Georgia.

The United States has pushed for a tougher international reaction to Russian treatment of America's close ally, leading to temporary suspension of NATO and European Union contacts with Russia.

But last month, shortly after the U.S. presidential elections, the EU resumed partnership talks with Russia over Georgian objections. (See this page in the November 15 Armenian Reporter.)

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said this week that NATO's "graduated re-engagement" with Russia does not mean that the alliance agrees with Russian policies in Georgia.

In another anticipated decision, NATO officials again declined to grant Georgia and Ukraine membership action plans (MAPs). At the same time, they reiterated the NATO's Bucharest summit statement that promised eventual membership to both countries last April, and promised to continue to assist Ukarine and Georgia to achieve "NATO standards."

Reacting to these developments, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on November 28 that he was "pleased that reason has prevailed, unfortunately only at the end of the current U.S. administration. But this at least ascertains the current state of affairs."

Mr. Medvedev made his comments in Cuba where he arrived from Venezuela, whose forces just held joint exercises with a Russian naval group currently in the Carribean.

Russia has strongly opposed NATO's expansion into Ukraine and Georgia.

As Eugeniusz Smolar of the Polish Center for International Relations told RFE/RL, "The Georgia war, in the opinion of most NATO members, is not only an example of Russian aggression - which it was. It was also an example of the irresponsible behavior of the present Georgian leadership."

Last week the Polish security service blamed Georgian leaders for endangering the life of the Polish president on a visit to Georgia when his convoy abruptly turned toward Ossetian territory, causing a shooting incident. Poland has been one of Georgia's staunchest supporters in NATO and the EU.

"In this context, many NATO members - and not just Germany and France - say that they are not politically ready to defend a country that is behaving in such a manner," Mr. Smolar said.

But proponents of NATO expansion suggest the incoming administration of Barack Obama could help mend ties between the United States and Europe, probably at Russia's expense.

"If you imagine in three years' time, if we have a stable government in Ukraine, a different Georgian leadership, a Russia that is preoccupied with its own problems, and a more popular American administration, NATO expansion might not look so crazy," Edward Lucas, deputy editor at the Economist, told RFE/RL.

Azerbaijan, Turkey seek Turkmenistan gas, ferry link up

Ilham Aliyev wearing national garb with Turkmen prez. looking on from portrait.
The presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey were in Turkmenistan last week in another effort to encourage routing of that country's natural gas exports via the Caspian, the Caucasus, and Turkey. The United States has long supported the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, having in August 2007 allocated funds to study its feasibility.

But Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have had difficult relations since independence, with their past dictators Heydar Aliyev and Saparmurad Niyazov arguing over offshore Caspian oil fields.

In recent years, while disagreements about the maritime border have not been resolved, there have been more contacts. Last May Mr. Niyazov's successor, Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, went to Baku for talks with Ilham Aliyev.

On November 28-29 Mr. Aliyev paid a return visit, with Turkish president Abdullah Gül arriving apparently to mediate the dispute between the two "brotherly" nations.

The three leaders agreed to reestablish a ferry link between Baku and Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk), suspended since the collapse of the USSR, and to continue talks on the disputed Kapaz/Sardar oil field in the middle of the Caspian and on a potential trans-Caspian gas pipeline.

In December 2007 Turkmenistan hosted the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan and agreed to build a new pipeline to export additional natural gas through their territories. The Central Asian nation is believed to have fourth largest gas resources in the world behind Russia, Iran, and Qatar.

Pallone on U.S. support for NKR; Erdogan on Bush & Obama; Vatican on Armenian Genocide; EU's new FSU plan; Caucasus on NATO ties

First published in November 29, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Rep. Pallone: U.S. should step up support for Karabakh

"It is necessary that the United States place an importance on the existence of the smaller states in the Caucasus," Rep. Frank Pallone (D.-N.J.) said in a statement released following his meeting with president of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Bako Sahakian, on November 22 in New York.

"The United States must not ignore the unique cultural identities of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh," the co-chair of the Congressional Armenian caucus went to say. "As a country founded on self-determination, we must champion the rights of people everywhere to self-determination."

While welcoming the November 2 Moscow declaration on Karabakh signed by the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Mr. Pallone also called for more "robust" U.S. role in the peace process under the incoming administration of Barack Obama.

Speaking on November 23 in Los Angeles, Mr. Sahakian welcomed President-elect Obama's "readiness to help meet the challenges faced by the Armenian nation." Karabakh's president is in the United States for the annual fundraising effort organized by the Armenia Fund in Los Angeles.

Turning to specific priorities for next year, Mr. Pallone said that as this year he will "urge a shift in U.S. aid to Nagorno-Karabakh from humanitarian to developmental programs [to] help rebuild Nagorno Karabakh's infrastructure [and] secure the health and safety of [its] people."

Turkish leader derides Bush, lobbies Obama

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan used an invitation from President George W. Bush to an economic summit in Washington to lecture President-elect Barack Obama and to lambast the Bush administration's policies as "disastrous."

Although Mr. Obama himself declined to take part in the summit, he asked former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, former Rep. Jim Leach (R.-Iowa), and Philip Gordon of the Brookings Institution to meet with foreign leaders on his behalf.

According to Turkish media, in meetings with Mr. Obama's representatives and in speeches at Brookings on November 14 and a day earlier at the Columbia University, Mr. Erdogan touted Turkey's importance and warned President-elect Obama about Turkey's "sensitivities" such as its insistence on denial of the Armenian Genocide and opposition to a de facto Kurdish state in Iraq.

In his presidential campaign, Mr. Obama repeatedly pledged to drop the Bush administration's policy and stop deferring to the Turkish lobby when it came to U.S. policy on the Armenian Genocide.

Separately, Mr. Obama pledged to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq within sixteen months.

Mr. Erdogan criticized the withdrawal plan as "premature" and the recognition pledge as "immature."

At Brookings, the Turkish leader claimed that "U.S. support is essential for maintaining the dialogue" between Turkey and Armenia, implying that Ankara would stop seeking normal relations with Yerevan if President Obama, in Mr. Erdogan's words at Columbia, acquiesced to Armenian-Americans' "cheap political lobbying" and speak clearly on the genocide in Ottoman Turkey.

Also at Columbia, Mr. Erdogan spoke of his desire to follow the recent Russian example and host a meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents.

And in Washington, Mr. Erdogan repeated his offer to mediate between the United States and Iran, while suggesting that Tehran cannot be forced to drop its nuclear program while other countries (presumably Israel, India, and Pakistan in addition to the United States, Russia, France, Britain, and China) retain nuclear weapons.

Vatican: Memories of Armenian Genocide need to be overcome

"The Holy See's official position was expressed in Pope John Paul II visit in Armenia [where he] spoke about genocide," Cardinal Walter Kasper, president of the Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity and the Vatican's voice on interfaith relations told Vatican Radio on November 22 (audio of the program is available at www.vaticanradio.org).

Cardinal Kasper was asked about the issue on eve of a meeting between Pope Benedict XVI and Catholicos Aram I of Cilicia who visited the Vatican from November 23 to 27.

In Armenia, "we visited the memorial of victims of what is called genocide, even though the Turkish [government] does not recognize this term. Normally it is called in this way," the cardinal recalled.

"In any case, the problem is not the term. It is a fact that thousands of Armenians were killed and starved and the terrible memories are there and we must help overcome these memories and also to improve if possible the relations between Armenia and Turkey, which are neighboring states but which have no relations with each other. And I don't know if the Holy See can do anything in this regard but of course we are always with the victims and not with those who did the bad things."

During his November 2006 trip to Turkey, Benedict XVI referred to "tragic circumstances [Armenians] endured in the last century," according to a report by www.asianews.it.

According to the Catholic News Service, in meeting with the Armenian delegation on November 24, Pope Benedict XVI also referred to Armenians' "unspeakable suffering."

In turn, Aram I said it was essential that the Armenian Genocide is explicitly acknowledged to help prevent new genocides "by affirming the rights of all people to dignity, a dignified life, freedom, and self-determination."

The Holy See last May hosted Karekin II, the Catholicos of All Armenians, who at the time appealed "to all nations and lands to universally condemn all genocides that have occurred throughout history," saying that "denial of these crimes is an injustice that equals the commission of the same."

In the meeting this week, Benedict XVI also noted "the escalation of persecution and violence against Christians in parts of the Middle East and elsewhere," apparently referring to attacks on Christians, including the Armenian community, in the U.S.-occupied Iraq.

"Only when the countries involved can determine their own destiny, and the various ethnic groups and religious communities accept and respect each other fully, will peace be built on the solid foundations of solidarity, justice and respect for the legitimate rights of individuals and peoples," the pope said.

European Union weighing ties with Russia, ex-Soviet republics

"In recognition of European aspirations" of Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the European Commission is set to propose a new Eastern Partnership project to encompass the six republics in June 2009, www.EUObserver.com reported on November 24.

The EU Commission's draft communication seen by EU Observer describes relations between the European Union and Russia would take priority over the proposed new project.

At the same time, in an implicit swipe at Russia, the document notes that "the conflict in Georgia in August 2008 and its broader repercussions have resulted in increased awareness of the vulnerability of Eastern partners.... There is a sense of urgency among member states as to the need to enhance relations with our Eastern neighbors to support them in drawing closer to the EU."

Until now, EU engaged the six countries through its European Neighborhood initiative, which also involves the countries of the Levant and North Africa.

The new initiative, first floated by Poland and Sweden last May, is meant to send "a clear and lasting political message of EU solidarity" and to "produce benefits perceived and recognized by citizens of the partner countries."

Among them would be increased European aid to the six ex-Soviet countries, easing of visas for travel, and "a single deep and comprehensive Free Trade Area, providing the basis for the development of a common internal market, such as the European Economic Area [EEA]," such as EU now enjoys with Iceland, Norway, and Liechtenstein.

But to qualify, the six states would be required to "take over [the entire EU legal code], including the acceptance of European Court of Justice rulings."

Caucasus countries clarify NATO policies

NATO foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on December 2-3 to find face-saving solutions that would help postpone immediate membership action plans (MAPs) for Ukraine and Georgia, news agencies report. Both countries were promised eventual membership at the NATO summit last April.

"At the moment [NATO membership] is not on Armenia's agenda," President Serge Sargsian told Euronews TV during his trip to European Union and NATO headquarters in Brussels in early November, reiterating a longstanding policy.

At the same time Mr. Sargsian added that Armenia wants to continue to partner with NATO, calling such cooperation "integral to [Armenia's] real security."

And in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published on November 11, Mr. Sargsian disagreed with the view that one of the lessons of the war in Georgia is that NATO should no longer be in the Caucasus. At the same time he noted that Armenia does not want to become an alliance member and is against "dangerous dividing lines" being drawn in the Caucasus.

In Baku, spokesperson for President Ilham Aliyev said on November 20 that Azerbaijan has no plans to enter NATO, Mediamax news agency reported.

"The talks concerning this issue do not reflect reality," said Elnur Aslanov. And in what may be the most belated correction in history, he added that the "statements about placing of NATO military bases in the territory of Azerbaijan," initiated in 1999 by Vafa Gulizade, senior aide to then-President Heydar Aliyev, "are also groundless."

For years, Azerbaijani officials have been more ambivalent about country's NATO aspirations.

Meanwhile, Georgia remains committed to NATO membership and "the decision, made in Bucharest, according to which Georgia will become a member of the Alliance, is still in effect", Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili said last week.

But speaking to Reuters on November 25, Ms. Tkeshelashvili appeared to concede that no action plan that could put a timeframe on future membership was forthcoming.

Armenian, Turkish FMs talk in Istanbul

First published in November 29, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Armenia’s foreign minister expects normalization of relations with Turkey “very soon”
On visit to Istanbul, says Armenia will “never” halt genocide recognition efforts
by Emil Sanamyan

Washington, - Armenian-Turkish normalization "could be done in a quick way, because I do not see any major obstacles," Armenia's foreign minister, Edward Nalbandian, said in Istanbul on November 24.

At the same time, Mr. Nalbandian stressed that Armenia is not saying, "never said, and will never say to our diaspora organizations or to any countries to stop the international recognition efforts of the Armenian Genocide. It is absolutely impossible."

The Turkish government has sought to prevent such recognition, warning in the past that Turkey would retaliate against Armenia's interests should the U.S. Congress adopt a resolution on the Genocide.

According to the Hurriyet newspaper on November 24, "the Turkish government is planning to restore [sic] diplomatic relations with Armenia by appointing an ‘accredited ambassador' if the Yerevan administration agrees to take a step on investigating the 1915 incidents."

Armenian leaders, including President Serge Sargsian earlier this month have rejected the so-called "commission of historians" proposed by Turkey in 2005 as a ploy to undermine recognition efforts.

Armenia holds the rotating presidency of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) organization, and it was in this capacity that Mr. Nalbandian was in Istanbul. In additional to littoral states, the organization includes Armenia and Azerbaijan and a few western Balkan countries.

Following the BSEC meeting, Mr. Nalbandian met Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. That meeting lasted for more than two hours, the Armenian Foreign Ministry said in a press release.

"At the briefing that followed the meeting, Edward Nalabandian and Ali Babacan assessed the meeting as effective and constructive," the press release said. "Ministers agreed to continue efforts directed towards normalization of bilateral relationship."

According to Turkish media reports, Mr. Babacan said that the aim of both sides "is to totally normalize bilateral relations."

Answering questions from numerous foreign and Turkish media outlets following the BSEC session and before meeting Mr. Babacan, Mr. Nalbandian said "negotiations concerning normalization of [Armenian-Turkish] relations" continue "in a positive way," according to the recording of the remarks made available by the Armenian Foreign Ministry.

"We are discussing some details and points as any [other] establishment of diplomatic relations, this must be prepared properly," Mr. Nalbandian went on to say, implying that a political decision to normalize relations has already been taken by both sides. "All opening of borders that have been closed for years and years must be prepared properly. This is not a problem, this is a question of our discussions."

Mr. Nalbandian reiterated the Armenian government's position that it has no preconditions for establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of borders. He added that he expected "the same approach from the Turkish side [because] normalization is in the interest of Armenia and Turkey" and was "not a favor" of one side to another.

After Turkish president Abdullah Gül's visit to Armenia in early September on President Sargsian's invitation, there have been heightened expectations for a breakthrough in relations.

Following talks in Yerevan, Mr. Nalbandian and Mr. Babacan met in New York in late September on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

But judging by comments Mr. Gül made at the U.N. and Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan made during his visit to the United States in mid-November, Turkey continues to condition normalization on the satisfaction of Turkish concerns on the matters of Armenian Genocide and, to a lesser extent, the Karabakh conflict.

At the press conference in Istanbul, Mr. Nalbandian also said that he is likely to meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart at the OSCE ministerial meeting in Finland next week and that a new presidential summit may follow sometime in early 2009.

Azeris to run Georgia gas network

First published in November 22, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Georgia cedes its natural gas network to Azerbaijan
by Emil Sanamyan

The Iran-Armenia gas pipeline at Saralanj. Photolure

Washington, - Georgia agreed to hand over the ownership of its natural gas network, which includes the transit gas pipeline from Russia to Armenia, to the Azerbaijani government, news agencies reported.

Under the November 14 deal, announced by Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili the next day, in return Azerbaijan would satisfy the bulk of Georgia's natural gas needs in 2009-13 at below-market prices.

The deal was finalized during an energy summit in Baku that brought together a number of central and eastern European heads and senior officials of states interested in Caspian energy.

Also at the summit, Kazakhstan agreed to expand its oil shipments via Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline built with U.S. support.

"Property for debt"

Georgia's deal with Azerbaijan is similar to Armenia's deal with Russia, exchanging formal ownership of the gas network - that could potentially serve as political leverage - for a temporary reprieve in prices.

Until this year, like Armenia, Georgia bought most of its natural gas from Russia. Moscow reportedly came close to buying the Georgian gas network, but the offer was declined by Tbilisi on the U.S. government's insistence, which was concerned with integrity of non-Russian gas supplies.

Although the Georgian-Russian border is closed and official relations are suspended, Russia continues to supply Georgia, and through it Armenia, with natural gas. The biggest gas consumers in Georgia - the Tbilisi electricity network and a chemical plant - are owned by Russian companies.

While Russian-Georgian talks on South Ossetia and Abkhazia resume in Geneva this week, no normalization in relations is anticipated any time soon.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington on November 15, President Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia was "ready to build relations with Georgia."

"But not with the current [Saakashvili] regime," Mr. Medvedev said. "That is a red line, which we cannot cross."

Armenia impact

Azerbaijan has now promised to cover more than 60 percent of Georgia's overall gas needs - estimated at 1.8 billion cubic meters of gas a year - at below-market prices. The rest of the supplies to Georgia would still need to come at market prices from Azerbaijan, Russia, or Iran.

Armenia imported more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia last year. In addition to the now Azerbaijani-owned Georgian transit pipeline, Armenia can now potentially import natural gas from Iran - an important safeguard that Armenia rushed to complete in recent years - should new problems arise in supplies via Georgia. The Iran option also becomes more attractive as Russia begins to raise prices for its supplies starting next year.

Consequences for Armenia of the Georgia deal may become apparent soon. Azerbaijan and Turkey had previously used a promise of lower gas prices to Georgia as leverage against Armenia in the form of Georgian support for the Kars-Akhalkalaki rail bypass and other projects.

The Russian-Georgian war already disrupted air and other traffic between Russia and Armenia. Media reports suggested that Georgia was trying to prevent Russian military cargo, including those resupplying its military base in Gyumri, from reaching Armenia.

Considering the continued importance of Georgia transit to Armenia, it is not surprising that both President Serge Sargsian and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian have visited Georgia since the August war, and Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian is expected to go soon.

See my Jan. 2007 analysis of the same subject here:
http://yandunts.blogspot.com/2007/02/published-in-janury-13-2007-issue-of.html

Obama/Biden on phone; NKR Pres. in U.S.; U.S.-Armenia task force meets in DC

First published in November 22, 2008 Armenian Reporter.


Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

Obama, Biden in telephone talks with foreign leaders

President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden called a number of "world leaders and expressed thanks and appreciation for their congratulations on the election."

The presidential transition web site www.change.gov reports that on November 6, Mr. Obama took calls from leaders of close U.S. allies Australia, Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. On November 7 he spoke with leaders of Italy, Spain, Poland, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, and on November 8 with those of Russia and China.

The president-elect phoned Presidents Abdullah Gül of Turkey and Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, as well as the Philippines president on November 17; the presidents of Colombia, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa, and United Nations secretary general on November 18; and the presidents of Argentina, Chile, Kazakhstan, and Palestine, and the Irish Prime Minister, on November 19.

No details of conversations were reported by the president-elect, but Mr. Saakashvili's office reported that "the U.S. President-elect expressed his unconditional support to the territorial integrity of Georgia and focused on the importance of continuation of the ongoing reforms in Georgia [and] U.S. support in this regard."

And according to Mr. Gul's office, Mr. Obama "emphasized the importance of the special relations between the two allies, Turkey and U.S." and backed Turkey's fight against Kurdish rebels.

Other calls to foreign leaders were made by Sen. Biden. On November 10 he telephoned the Israeli foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, who is likely to be the next prime minister, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and opposition leader Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu; Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown, as well as the presidents of Poland and Afghanistan and, on November 11, the king of Jordan.

And on November 17, Mr. Biden called the European Union's Javier Solana, as well as the presidents of Colombia and Georgia, the prime minister of Spain, and the foreign minister of Greece.

Karabakh president begins U.S. visit

President Bako Sahakian of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) began a 10-day working visit to the United States on November 18. Mr. Sahakian's delegation includes NKR Finance Minister Spartak Tevosian and other officials.

The trip is dedicated to the annual Thanksgiving Day telethon in support of Karabakh and Armenia organized by the Armenia Fund in Los Angeles and includes stops in Boston and New York for meetings with Armenian-American community leaders.

Since its creation in 1992, the fund has supported key transportation infrastructure in Karabakh with about $185 million spent on projects throughout Armenia.

U.S.-Armenia Task Force meets in Washington

Economic Development Minister Nerses Yeritsian led an Armenian government delegation to Washington for talks with U.S. officials from November 19 to 21.

The visit was within the regular U.S.-Armenia Task Force (USATF) mechanism and included visits with official counterparts at the Departments of State and Commerce, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation. The USATF's American co-chair is currently Daniel Rosenblum, the State Department assistance to Eurasia coordinator.

USATF was previously co-chaired by Armenia's Finance and Economy Ministers Levon Barkhudarian (1999-2000) and Vardan Khachatrian (2000-2008), and U.S. State Department Coordinators for U.S. assistance to Eurasia Bill Taylor (2000-2003) and Tom Adams (2004-2008).

Set up in 2000, USATF is an intergovernmental committee that meets twice a year to discuss U.S. assistance for Armenia's reforms and bilateral economic ties.

However, the volume of U.S. assistance to Armenia has declined from an average of $75million a year in 2004-2006 to about $50 million in 2007. Bilateral trade remained steady at an average of $125 million a year in 2004-2007, with U.S. exports to Armenia accounting for most of the turnover.

Item below was published in November 29, 2008 Armenian Reporter:

Open Sky agreement signed by Armenia and the United States
by Armen Hakobyan

Yerevan - As part of the process of authorizing direct flights between the United States and Armenia, the two countries signed an Open Sky agreement in Washington on November 21.

Artyom Movsesian, director general of Armenia's Civil Aviation Agency, who was in Washington as part of the Armenian delegation to the U.S.-Armenia Task Force (USATF), signed the agreement with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Daniel Fried.

Mr. Movsesian told the Armenian Reporter in an interview that "the agreement is fairly liberal and creates broad opportunities for cooperation with the U.S., where we have a large Armenian diaspora. Apart from that, the agreement gives aviation companies opportunities to implement flexible policies."

For actual flights to begin, Armenian and U.S. carriers must carry out feasibility studies: They must determine the aircraft they wish to use, the routes they wish to take, the frequency, and the price, Mr. Movsesian said.

On the Armenian side, the management of Armavia has stated on more than one occasion that the company is planning direct flights to Los Angeles with a refueling stop in Shannon, Ireland.

Before that can happen, however, the U.S. Federal Aviation Agency must, under the agreement, carry out studies to confirm that Armenia can fulfill flight security and aviation security demands.

Mr. Movsesian said the investigation would last at least six months. He noted that the representatives of the U.S. side have recently visited Armenia and met with him.

California election results published

First published in November 15, 2008 Armenian Reporter

Obama sweeps Armenian-heavy California constituencies
by Emil Sanamyan

View of city of Glendale, CA.
Washington, - Senator Barack Obama polled above state average in Southern California communities with a substantial Armenian presence, according to final election results certified and published on November 8.

As expected, the Democratic Party ticket enjoyed a comfortable victory in California, winning 61 percent (6.3 million) of the vote statewide to Sen. John McCain's 37 percent.

In Los Angeles County, the largest hub of the Armenian community in the United States, the margin of victory was wider, with Mr. Obama and his running mate Joe Biden winning more than 69 percent (1.85 million) of the vote.

In Glendale, 34,125 votes (64 percent) were cast for Mr. Obama and 17,288 for Mr. McCain (32 percent). Rep. Adam Schiff (D.) was re-elected with 31,926 votes, with his Republican challenger receiving 13,557 votes. The controversial Proposition 8 banning gay marriage was approved by 28,057 votes to 23,214 voting against.

In nearby Pasadena, 34,050 votes were cast for Mr. Obama (72 percent) and 11,914 for Mr. McCain. Mr. Schiff won 31,560 votes to his GOP opponent's 10,311 votes; while proposition 8 was voted down by 26,634 voters with 19,461 voting in support of the ban.

And in Burbank, Mr. Obama won 23,928 votes (64 percent) to Mr. McCain's 12,231; Mr. Schiff, 10,790, and his GOP opponent, 4,770 votes; Rep. Brad Sherman (D.) was re-elected with 11,466 votes, with his Republican opponent winning 4,416 votes; and Proposition 8 was defeated by 20,043 votes to 16,388.

Armenian-Americans in California elections

Armenian-American members of Congress Anna Eshoo (D.) and Jackie Speier (D,), representing San Francisco-area constituencies, were comfortably re-elected.

In state elections, Senator from Palo Alto Joseph Simitian and Assembly member for the Glendale and Burbank area Paul Krekorian, both Democrats, were re-elected.

Two Republicans, Assembly member Greg Aghazarian, a candidate for a state Senate seat in the Central Valley, and Armineh Chelebian, running for an assembly seat in the Los Angeles neighborhoods of Van Nuys and West Hills, were defeated.

Iraq coalition; Erdogan, Medvedev in DC; EU restores Russia ties

First published in November 15, 2008 Armenian Reporter.

Washington Briefing
by Emil Sanamyan

U.S.-led coalition members pull troops out of Iraq

Multi-National Force-Iraq insignia.The 7-pointed star represents Iraq's largest communities- Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, Turkomans, Assyrians, Yazidis, and Armenians. Source U.S. Dept. of Defense.

With the twilight of the George W. Bush administration and with President-elect Barack Obama having pledged a gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, most of the remaining members of the so-called Coalition of the Willing are no longer willing to stay in Iraq.

Since 2003 the coalition had included troops from the three former Soviet republics in the Caucasus, as well as Kazakhstan, Moldova, Ukraine, and the three Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are now members of NATO. Most of these troops have already withdrawn, with 37 Estonians and 20 Moldovans due out by the end of the year.

Azerbaijan became the latest former Soviet republic to announce a pullout, with its president issuing instructions to that effect shortly after the U.S. election. Initially at 150, the Azerbaijani unit currently ­numbers 88 personnel that have served as security guards at a hydroelectric plant.

Although Azerbaijani forces were not reported to have taken part in operations outside the dam perimeter, they did suffer at least one soldier killed last June in apparent fratricide.

Armenia pulled its 46-person unit from near the town of Kut, on the Iraqi-Iranian border, last month. The pullout was timed to the withdrawal of the Polish forces, under whose command Armenians served.

(Poland participated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and in five years Polish forces lost 21 soldiers, with 70 others wounded, according to U.S. military records cited by AFP.)

The Armenian unit was involved in demining, medical rescue, and logistics operations, suffering one officer seriously wounded in combat. That officer, Sr. Lt. Georgi Nalbandian, has since recovered and returned to active duty with the Armenian armed forces.

Georgia, which earlier this year increased its presence in Iraq to nearly 2,000 soldiers, pulled most of them out during the war with Russia in August with the remainder returning home since then.

Georgians had served in Baghdad and northern Iraq and were due to take over the Polish-led division before their deployment was cut short. Through June 2008, five Georgian soldiers died (three from hostile action, one in an accident, and one in an apparent suicide) and 18 others were wounded.

Ukraine, which in 2003 deployed more than 1,600 of its soldiers in Iraq, pulled out in 2005 after losing 18 soldiers in various incidents. Several dozen Ukrainian officers remain in Iraq as part of NATO advisory mission to the Iraqi government.

And finally Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic, also withdrew its 29-person unit of de­miners and medics last month.

Kazakhstan, like Armenia, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization led by Russia, which openly opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

But subsequently, Russia dropped objections to U.S. military presence in Iraq. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week that Russia would support a renewed United Nations mandate for the American military presence in Iraq.

The current five-year mandate is about to expire and the Bush administration is now negotiating a status of forces agreement with the Iraqi government that would keep U.S. forces in the country via bilateral agreement.

World leaders to gather in Washington for economic summit

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev and Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan will be among heads of state and government and senior officials from the world's 20 biggest economies who are arriving in Washington on November 14 for a summit called by President Bush.

The summit was called with a stated intention of addressing the global financial crisis, but for some visiting foreign leaders this would also be the first opportunity to meet with key aides of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama. Mr. Obama said he would not attend the summit and would not be meeting with any of the summit participants, according to the Washington Post.

Mr. Erdogan reportedly sought a meeting with Mr. Obama to offer mediation between the United States and Iran, while also urging him not to change the U.S. policy on the Armenian Genocide. According to Hurriyet, it is unclear if Mr. Erdogan would agree to meet with Mr. Obama's advisors.

According to Referans, Mr. Erdogan also wants to meet with the chair of U.S. Federal Reserve to ask for U.S. financial aid on more preferential terms than are offered by the International Monetary Fund.

The summit will be the first opportunity for a meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders since the war in Georgia last August. Mr. Medvedev told Le Figaro that he already had a "very good conversation" with President-elect Obama, RIA Novosti reported on November 13, and they would "meet will meet without delay and obstruction," although apparently not this week.

Europeans resume talks with Russia over Georgian objections

The European Union (EU) will resume talks with Russia on a "strategic partnership" agreement, which it suspended on September 1 as a punishment for Russian military operations in Georgia.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who holds the rotating EU chair and had negotiated the Russian-Georgian cease-fire, announced the decision on November 11. Poland and Lithuania expressed public opposition to the decision.

Georgian officials protested and EU officials acknowledged that Russian forces had not returned to positions they held before the Georgian attack against South Ossetia on August 7-8, saying that the EU's talks with Russia in "no way legitimize the status quo in Georgia," with the EU continuing to protest Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia in early 1990s.

But in an interview with Le Figaro, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said his country's decisions "are no joking matters" and could not be revised. Mr. Medvedev added that future Russian military presence in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be regulated on a bilateral basis.

Speaking at the Brookings Institution in Washington on November 12, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France said Russia represented a "challenge" to the West, but he added that "there is no solution to most of today's [global] problems without [Russia], let alone against [Russia]."?

Freeing our khachkars

Much of Armenian symbolism is about rocks. Starting from Mount Ararat - the highest peak of the Armenian highland - to the multitude of fortress-churches and associated cross-stones (khach-kars in Armenian). It's a rocky country with a rock-and-roll kind of history.

The cross-stones - man-sized slabs of stone with unique, complex and often intricate carvings - are much more than religious symbols. Serving primarily as gravestones they are intended to symbolize the uniqueness of each individual life even if packed into similar-sized human bodies. See http://www.armeniapedia.org/index.php?title=Khachkar

The tradition goes back many centuries. But faced by the elements - beaten by wind making writings unrecognizable, relocated to be used for construction (and often new khachkars), gone underground or under water because of shifting rivers and earth - not that many survive in their natural habitats rather than in museums.

I am aware of only two large medieval cemeteries that survived into modernity - one at Noraduz near Lake Sevan and another at Jugha in Nakhichevan.

Three years ago, the one at Jugha (or Julfa, Djulfa) was wiped out by the government of Azerbaijan. See http://www.djulfa.com

It was a multi-year project by Azerbaijan - there were just too many khachkars, they were hard to move, it was hard work done by army conscripts - essentially slave laborers.

It was an outrageous decision but one that fits into the overall logic of what has been happening to Armenians and Armenian things in places where Azerbaijani nationalism runs amock (see previous post).

Other than a statement here and a resolution there the international community has imposed no obvious costs on Azerbaijan's government for this and earlier outrages. As with most issues few people seem to understand the problem and those who may often don't care.

To be sure there is plenty of grievances that Armenians and Azeri can trade. But going after cemeteries?

In Baku Armenian cemeteries with less historical but more immediate sentimental value to many (including my family whose three generations made their home in Baku for nearly a century) were paved over for roads or new construction. That does not justify the disrespect they were afforded but makes some remote kind of sense.

In the case of Jugha, khachkars stood in the middle of nowhere and were simply crushed, dismembered, thrown into the river. They were targeted and wiped out for their Armenian symbolism and as the last remaining Armenian outpost. All remaining Armenian churches of Nakhichevan were done away with in years prior.

What can be done short of going to war about this?

There are no fast and easy solutions. In the hard years of the Karabakh war the only way to get your POWs or civilian hostages or even their dead bodies back was to trade them for those of the enemy.

Now I am thinking, perhaps Armenians should disassemble the remaining Azeri mosques and gravestones on their territory and exchange them for the khachkars and other Armenian heritage items of value?

Certainly some of the Azeri items have cultural value for Armenia and people who truly care about cultural heritage would rather not see them go. But what other options are there?

What do you think?

Baku pogromshiks' zest on wane

Armenians are back in Baku. A whole three of them. Two are from the Foreign Ministry and one from Transportation. They had to be admitted for a couple of days as a condition for Baku hosting another one of those TRACECA conferences under the Council of Europe umbrella.

But lest anyone think its back to normal, provocateurs allegedly on employ of Azerbaijani government are at it again. Akif Nagiyev tells Media Forum (in my translation from Russian):

""Our activists are searching for Armenians at the official event in Baku." He declared that they are looking for Armenians to cause them harm:

"Our activists were ordered to go into the Gulistan palace. If they could get in, they would beat up an Armenian and take him outside. But police interfered.

We are now looking for Armenians in various city hotels. Either we will die or they will! There will be some kind of a fatal incident, unless these visits stop."

Nagiyev said that several hotels were visited, but they could not find any Armenians. He again blamed police but promised to continue with this tactic."

http://www.mediaforum.az/articles.php?lang=rus&page=00&article_id=20081204071817075

Hold up! Does this sound as a credible pogromshik to you? Where is Neimat Panakhov?
In the old days even the Soviet army could not stop truly-motivated pogromshiks. Photo circa 1990.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pogrom_of_Armenians_in_Baku

Georgia: Children's crusade

All these youngsters in the Saakashvili government: Kezerashvili (born in 1978), Tkeshelashvili (1977) and now, believe it or not, MGALOBLIshvili (1973) and the mess they got themselves into, reminded me of the mythic but touching "Children's crusade"


"The Children's Crusade is the name given to a variety of fictional and factual events which happened in 1212 that combine some or all of these elements: visions by a French or German boy; an intention to peacefully convert Muslims in the Holy Land to Christianity; bands of children marching to Italy; and children being sold into slavery. A study published in 1977[1] cast doubt on the existence of these events and it is now generally accepted[2] that they were not children but multiple bands of "wandering poor" in Germany and France, some of whom tried to reach the Holy Land and others who never intended to do so. Early versions of events, of which there are many variations told over the centuries, are largely apocryphal."
see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children%27s_crusade

UPDATE: Tkeshelashvili and Kezerashvili have been replaced.

Meantime, Irakli Alasania (born in 1973) resigned his job as Ambassador to UN apparently to challenge Saakashvili (b. 1967). (Alasania is the family name of Saakashvili's mother, although the two politicians are of Megrelian descent, they are not believed to be immediately related.) Still hope for children's crusade?

The other prominent challenger is of course Nino Burjanadze (b. 1964). While Saakashvili's own preferred successor for now seems to be David Bakradze (b. 1972).